Is plate discipline in pro ball getting worse?

Dominik85 posted:

We all know the Ks are up a lot and contact percentage is going down. However I wonder if also plate discipline is getting worse.

 

Pitch fx was installed in 2002 and since then:

-inside the zone swing percentage went down from 70 to 66% (players take more strikes in the zone)

- at the same time outside the zone swing percentage went up a lot from low 20s to 30%

 

So players swing at less strikes and more balls which is not a good thing of course.

 

What is the reason for this? Pitchers have nastier stuff? Hitters less disciplined? Or maybe the increase of the strike zone due to the pitch fx crosscheck forcing hitters to expand the zone more?

Both pitchers with nastier stuff and younger hitters that are trained to take their hacks at all three strikes.

I'll lean toward the pitching side as being more responsible.

Maybe the emphasis on exit velocity is a factor. Stands to reason that if you speed up your bat, you're going to miss more.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/...ay-be-part-of-surge/

HR hitters get paid

Since 2002?  Is that a typo?  MLB has literally gone through 2 different eras in that time.

We are presently in one of the All-Time golden eras of pitching.  Pitching is arguably better than it has ever been.  That is a big part of it.

I think players are hunting fastballs early in counts in the last few years more than in the past.  Might not be so much a plate discipline issue as much as a different approach.  More than ever, nobody wants to deal with nasty sliders and curveballs with 2 strikes.  Better to hunt that fastball earlier in at bats.

CAMBOB2020 posted:

HR hitters get paid

Wellllll .....  

Mark Reynolds, Pedro Alvarez, Marlon Byrd, Chris Carter, Ryan Howard, Mike Morse...

You still need to bring something else to the table and not have too many other significant deficiencies.  I think the pendulum is swinging away from power-only guys.  Chris Carter signing for relative peanuts considering his recent power success is good illustration.  That's what makes the OP's question so interesting.

I think, overall, everything is a bit more refined.  Pitchers have better data on hitters, have a better game plan and are better at hitting spots (except the pure power guys, of which there are more) and not tipping pitch types.  Fielders, particularly 2B, SS and 3B, are more athletic, have stronger arms and field better.  Field conditions are impeccable.  Shifts are utilized more.  This all leads to bigger challenges for the already difficult task that hitters face.  This forces more hitter adjustments, more aggressive approaches with two strikes, more guessing, etc.  It becomes harder and harder to simplify the hitting approach and still have relative success.

cabbagedad posted:

CAMBOB2020 posted:

HR hitters get paid

Wellllll .....  

Mark Reynolds, Pedro Alvarez, Marlon Byrd, Chris Carter, Ryan Howard, Mike Morse...

You still need to bring something else to the table and not have too many other significant deficiencies.  I think the pendulum is swinging away from power-only guys.  Chris Carter signing for relative peanuts considering his recent power success is good illustration.  That's what makes the OP's question so interesting.

I think, overall, everything is a bit more refined.  Pitchers have better data on hitters, have a better game plan and are better at hitting spots (except the pure power guys, of which there are more) and not tipping pitch types.  Fielders, particularly 2B, SS and 3B, are more athletic, have stronger arms and field better.  Field conditions are impeccable.  Shifts are utilized more.  This all leads to bigger challenges for the already difficult task that hitters face.  This forces more hitter adjustments, more aggressive approaches with two strikes, more guessing, etc.  It becomes harder and harder to simplify the hitting approach and still have relative success.

 

For every guy you named, there are ten guys my comment pertains to.  I see your point and not looking for an argument. 

Striking out a lot used to be a scarlet letter. Only power hitters (30+ homers) struck out more than 100 times per season. All the shame is gone from striking out. Middle infielders are now whiffing 100+ times just to hit 15 homers. 

Another aspect is not seeing the same pitcher more than two or three times per game. Once the starter is removed it's a different pitcher each at bat. Adjustments and setting up pitchers for the next at bat are out the window. 

3and2Fastball posted:

Since 2002?  Is that a typo?  MLB has literally gone through 2 different eras in that time.

We are presently in one of the All-Time golden eras of pitching.  Pitching is arguably better than it has ever been.  That is a big part of it.

I think players are hunting fastballs early in counts in the last few years more than in the past.  Might not be so much a plate discipline issue as much as a different approach.  More than ever, nobody wants to deal with nasty sliders and curveballs with 2 strikes.  Better to hunt that fastball earlier in at bats.

2002 pitch fx was installed before that we don't have reliable plate discipline data.

I don't think it is aggressiveness. Overall swing percentage is almost unchanged, the swing percentage on ball is up but on strikes it is actually down.

There is a small trend of swinging earlier in the count but overall patience is similar,players just swing at worse pitches.

Also many homerun hitters are very patient, even the high guys (adam dunn, even Chris  Carter) although there also is an increasing number of two true outcome guys who have power, strike out and do not walk much (for example odor). 

No, no and no. The Mariners are preaching plate discipline, and it started two years ago. Last year, I think their collective minor league system had the best record, and won two levels. Absolutely everyone has bought in.

joemktg posted:

No, no and no. The Mariners are preaching plate discipline, and it started two years ago. Last year, I think their collective minor league system had the best record, and won two levels. Absolutely everyone has bought in.

Many do preach plate discipline  (cubs, astros, Dodgers,  rays, of course the As) but still batters swung at more pitches outside the zone.

I don't think it is an intent thing, anyone knows that swinging at strikes is good and swinging at balls is bad and yet the league swings at nearly a third of the balls a pitcher delivers. 

As I said players are not really more aggressive the swing rate is only up marginally (around 46%) so a lot of pitches are taken, just a worse selection of them (less strikes and more balls).

So it probably is not an intent thing but an ability think. I doubt hitters got worse and they probably do more vision and pitch recognition training than 15 years ago and yet it is getting worse. More likely it is a circumstance outside of the hitters that makes it harder for them (or easier for the early 00 guys).

As to the pitchers being better now and hitters hunting fast balls. The kid went to a seminar given by a pro level hitting instructor. He asked the kids "how do you hit a CB? You hit the FB before it. How do you hit a CU, you hit the FB before it. Because at the MLB level your not hitting a good curve or change up".

As to strike outs. My son hits with a very high up MLB scout. If you hit a grounder there's negative feedback. He wants hard hit balls in the air. Liners to the gap or preferably HR's. The reason being the speed you see on defense, coupled with the shift makes a grounder almost a sure out. And even if it's not scoring a runner from first, or even second, is very difficult. HR's takes the defense out of the equation. 

Quote from Altuve in the linked article above: "Last year I lost my fear to strikeout.  I think that is what happened."

I think that its the approach and as RJM said, the decreasing stigma of striking out.  One of my favorite baseball stats is this: Joe DiMaggio had 361 career HR and 369 strikeouts.  The game has changed.

K9 posted:

Quote from Altuve in the linked article above: "Last year I lost my fear to strikeout.  I think that is what happened."

I think that its the approach and as RJM said, the decreasing stigma of striking out.  One of my favorite baseball stats is this: Joe DiMaggio had 361 career HR and 369 strikeouts.  The game has changed.

I follow Altuve pretty closely.  And he said it, so he believes it.  But if you look at pitch f/x data, he has become much more disciplined and doesn't swing out of the strike zone as much.

Go44dad posted:

K9 posted:

Quote from Altuve in the linked article above: "Last year I lost my fear to strikeout.  I think that is what happened."

I think that its the approach and as RJM said, the decreasing stigma of striking out.  One of my favorite baseball stats is this: Joe DiMaggio had 361 career HR and 369 strikeouts.  The game has changed.

I follow Altuve pretty closely.  And he said it, so he believes it.  But if you look at pitch f/x data, he has become much more disciplined and doesn't swing out of the strike zone as much.

And his k rate also didn't go up and remained at an elite level. Probably more an ability than an intent thing.

Dominik85 posted:…There is a small trend of swinging earlier in the count but overall patience is similar,players just swing at worse pitches…. 

I know you aren’t gonna like this, but you have to define what “worse” is, and what it’s compared to that’s “better”. Is it a pitch out of the strike zone or is it a pitch in the strike zone that isn’t a good pitch to hit.

In a game the other day, Edwin Encarnacion swung at a mid-thigh pitch 4” off the plate outside. The exit velocity was 110, the angle was 31 degrees, and it went 428’ on a line. The announcers were talking about how hard he hit it and how the pitcher had made a mistake of getting the ball up and over the plate as the director was re-playing the hit, complete with lines showing the flight of the pitch.

Was he showing poor plate discipline? Was he being over aggressive? Or was something else happening?

Stats4Gnats posted:

Dominik85 posted:…There is a small trend of swinging earlier in the count but overall patience is similar,players just swing at worse pitches…. 

 

I know you aren’t gonna like this, but you have to define what “worse” is, and what it’s compared to that’s “better”. Is it a pitch out of the strike zone or is it a pitch in the strike zone that isn’t a good pitch to hit.

 

In a game the other day, Edwin Encarnacion swung at a mid-thigh pitch 4” off the plate outside. The exit velocity was 110, the angle was 31 degrees, and it went 428’ on a line. The announcers were talking about how hard he hit it and how the pitcher had made a mistake of getting the ball up and over the plate as the director was re-playing the hit, complete with lines showing the flight of the pitch.

 

Was he showing poor plate discipline? Was he being over aggressive? Or was something else happening?

Yes my data are just based on the pitch fx strike zone based on the assumption that usually strikes are better balls to hit then balls.

However certain strikes might be even tougher to hit than certain balls considering individual player strengths. For example mike trout expanded his zone a little below the knees because he killed those and contracted it on the top because he was very bad at them (he stuffed that hole last year).

But generally the assumption that strikes are easier to hit then balls is probably not wrong, outside the zone contact in mlb last year was more than 20% lower than inside the zone contact (63% outside and 86 inside).

There might be exceptions to this though.

Dominik85 posted:

Yes my data are just based on the pitch fx strike zone based on the assumption that usually strikes are better balls to hit then balls.

However certain strikes might be even tougher to hit than certain balls considering individual player strengths. For example mike trout expanded his zone a little below the knees because he killed those and contracted it on the top because he was very bad at them (he stuffed that hole last year).

But generally the assumption that strikes are easier to hit then balls is probably not wrong, outside the zone contact in mlb last year was more than 20% lower than inside the zone contact (63% outside and 86 inside).

There might be exceptions to this though.

There’s no doubt that in general a ball in the strike zone will be easier to hit solidly than one that’s not. After all, pitches in the zone are generally closer to the bat’s sweet spot. But that doesn’t mean every ball not in the strike zone is difficult to hit hard. There’s many factors going into it.

I think some of it is the Latin influence - there was an adage for a lot of years that "you don't walk off the islands" I think as a tendency that is accurate and to some degree it has spread across the MLB. I think the pitchers aggression and stat data have contributions as well. lets face the game is full corrections, then readjustments and back...there will be more changes in the future as well!

It's due to pitchers throwing harder.  Against a guy throwing 95mph, most MLB hitters still have to look for it in a certain spot in order to hit it.  If you're looking outside and the pitch is inside, you're not swinging.  And if the pitch does go outside a bit off the plate, you're more likely to swing because you think it's going where you want it to.