Is using velocity a valid way to measure a pitcher's fatigue

You bring up a very good point, we can all learn from everything that is posted here.

 

If it was always that way, there would be no issue with any of the topics, however, the bottom line is the argument after the replies, this isn't a new thing.

 

It was his topic, so he gets the benefit of the doubt, but many times he cuts into a topic and changes everything, this is not a new thing either.

 

If one comes here to use this site to stir the pot, they don't belong here.

 

JMO

That is a good question.  I am not sure what your deal is, and frankly, I don't care.  I like reading your posts, because I find them quite comical.  They seem odd, strange, nit-picky, unaware that the answer has already been stated about a million times previously, etc. 

As far as an agenda, maybe you or someone close to you was, IYHO, hosed by some coach because he did not possess the requisite height, weight, skills, velocity, etc; so you are determined to prove that less measurables do not necessarily mean less effectiveness?  I am not sure.

 

As far as being in the minority, you seem to be on almost every post that I have read...

Would someone please lock the door when Stats steps out!   Yikes!

Stats, why is it so hard to understand that everyone and every situation is different?

 

Some people are fat, some people are small, some are tall, some are short, some are marathoners, some are sprinters.  "Significant" means "significant" to that person based on what you know about how that individual acts.   A loss of 5 lbs to me may be "significant" because over the last 10 years my weight hasn't varied by more than 3 lbs, and means I should see a doctor.  A loss of 10 lbs to my coworker may not be significant, because he has bigger weight swings based on his weights over the same period.  

 

That's the job of the coach...to coach each player based on what you know about that player.  Just because you like to see everything measured, because your purpose seems to revolve around "stats" or objective measurements, doesn't mean they're the answer to everything. There simply doesn't have to be some uniform measurement of 5.43663% loss in velocity for everyone and below that threshold they're tired.   One player could lose 1 MPH and it could be significant for him, another could likely lose 5mph and that's fairly normal for him and not a cause for concern.  Or the coach could notice a change in mechanics, a change in the way the pitcher is getting hit, etc. even with no velocity loss and know the pitcher is tired.  

 

If you measure players with a radar gun, and know what they usually do, then it could be one thing you'd what to watch for.  That doesn't mean every decision is based on the gun, it's just a factor, like a scale in looking at your weight over a period of time.  There could a ton of other things too that factor in.

 

There isn't a one size fits all measurement, because people are not one size fits all.  I think that's what people are trying to tell you...  Just because you're the "stats guy" doesn't mean stats or measurements are the answer to every question.  Every question does not have an objective answer (I can say I like the color blue, without telling you what exact percentage of joy that color gives me or how it compares precisely on a statistical basis with other colors).   "Fatigue" in and of itself isn't an objective thing.   One person's fatigue may be where another gets his second wind--it depends on the individual.

 

Stats are a tool that gives part of a picture, and coaches with experience may use them as a factor in their decisions (how big a factor is the coach's call based on his or her individualized experience and judgment and knowledge of the player and the situation).  

 

"Maybe I can convince our coach to start gunning our pitchers."

 

To not use velocity at all, would be ignoring a factor.  That's how you convince your head coach to use it, if you really want to.   Velocity is one piece of a puzzle, and without that piece you may get less of a complete picture...or the coach may feel he knows the complete picture of pitcher loss in effectiveness of pitcher fatique or injury without that piece, and the radar gun is too expensive for its value-added for the entire team.  That's his call.

 

As for a pitcher using the radar gun as a way of judging his fatigue or injury:

http://www.ajc.com/news/sports...bow-checked-b/nZZZw/

Brandon Beachy, who normally sits in the low 90s...knew he was injured in part because of the scoreboard radar readings:

"Started losing control, and I looked up (at the radar gun reading) and saw a bunch of 85’s (mph). That last one there, I got the guy to pop out, and I looked up and it said 82 mph change-up. I said, I could have swore that was a four-seamer (fastball) that I threw.”

 

 

 

 

Originally Posted by mcloven:

Stats, why is it so hard to understand that everyone and every situation is different?

 

Its not, which is why I’m looking for a percentage guideline rather than MPH.

 

That's the job of the coach...to coach each player based on what you know about that player.  Just because you like to see everything measured, because your purpose seems to revolve around "stats" or objective measurements, doesn't mean they're the answer to everything. There simply doesn't have to be some uniform measurement of 5.43663% loss in velocity for everyone and below that threshold they're tired.   One player could lose 1 MPH and it could be significant for him, another could likely lose 5mph and that's fairly normal for him and not a cause for concern.  Or the coach could notice a change in mechanics, a change in the way the pitcher is getting hit, etc. even with no velocity loss and know the pitcher is tired.  

 

I guess I don’t think the same way you do, because I’ve never seen the issue as looking for whose tired, but rather when a pitcher was likely going to cause either himself or his team problems. I have no problem saying X% is a good guideline, but I do have problems saying it its changes from player to player, then hoping whoever’s in charge notices.

 

If you measure players with a radar gun, and know what they usually do, then it could be one thing you'd what to watch for.  That doesn't mean every decision is based on the gun, it's just a factor, like a scale in looking at your weight over a period of time.  There could a ton of other things too that factor in.

 

JEEZIS! I never said anyone was basing every decision on the gun, nor have I said no other factors should be considered.

 

There isn't a one size fits all measurement, because people are not one size fits all.  I think that's what people are trying to tell you...  Just because you're the "stats guy" doesn't mean stats or measurements are the answer to every question.  Every question does not have an objective answer (I can say I like the color blue, without telling you what exact percentage of joy that color gives me or how it compares precisely on a statistical basis with other colors).   "Fatigue" in and of itself isn't an objective thing.   One person's fatigue may be where another gets his second wind--it depends on the individual.

 

I’m not trying to say stats are the answer to every question, but when stats are used, there should be consistency. All I’m trying to do is get a guideline better than “significant”. A guideline is just that. It gives guidance without demand.

 

Stats are a tool that gives part of a picture, and coaches with experience may use them as a factor in their decisions (how big a factor is the coach's call based on his or her individualized experience and judgment and knowledge of the player and the situation).  

 

I agree, but when have I ever said anything different?

 

To not use velocity at all, would be ignoring a factor.  That's how you convince your head coach to use it, if you really want to.   Velocity is one piece of a puzzle, and without that piece you may get less of a complete picture...or the coach may feel he knows the complete picture of pitcher loss in effectiveness of pitcher fatique or injury without that piece, and the radar gun is too expensive for its value-added for the entire team.  That's his call.

 

Again, that’s nothing I haven’t said before, including that not using it MAY not give a complete picture.

 

As for a pitcher using the radar gun as a way of judging his fatigue or injury:

http://www.ajc.com/news/sports...bow-checked-b/nZZZw/

Brandon Beachy, who normally sits in the low 90s...knew he was injured in part because of the scoreboard radar readings:

"Started losing control, and I looked up (at the radar gun reading) and saw a bunch of 85’s (mph). That last one there, I got the guy to pop out, and I looked up and it said 82 mph change-up. I said, I could have swore that was a four-seamer (fastball) that I threw.”

 

That’s very different from losing “significant” velocity from the end of one inning to the next, but if that’s what you want to hang your hat on, its all good with me.

rynoattack,

 

My “deal” is pretty simple. I like to think, and that means not blindly accepting what someone else says without question. Many years ago, a very well respected baseball man told me that anyone in the game who thinks they have all the answers is a fool. I know I don’t have all the answers, but before I accept someone else’s answer as gospel, I feel obligated to do my best to find out for myself, and that’s why I ask so many questions. I know most people don’t like to be challenged, but to me it shows character to at least try to answer a question the way PG has done, which is why I respect him.

Stats, you posed the initial question re whether using velocity is a valid way to measure fatigue.  Those are your words.  "Fatigue" is literally synonymous with "tired."  Now you're saying you "never felt the issue was looking for who's tired," and changing the definition of "fatigue" to some kind of "effectiveness."   These "discussions" seem like shell games so they can turn into never-ending, shape shifting arguments.  That's why everyone gets frustrated. 

Pretty good summation...

You claim that you are just asking questions to get information.  That is not at all what it seems like.  Like I said earlier, when it appears that you are in the minority, and you seem to irritate most with your so called "questions", maybe you are the problem...

Originally Posted by mcloven:

Stats, you posed the initial question re whether using velocity is a valid way to measure fatigue.  Those are your words.  "Fatigue" is literally synonymous with "tired."  Now you're saying you "never felt the issue was looking for who's tired," and changing the definition of "fatigue" to some kind of "effectiveness."   These "discussions" seem like shell games so they can turn into never-ending, shape shifting arguments.  That's why everyone gets frustrated. 

 

I have to admit I didn’t define fatigue very well in the OP. But the truth is, the very 1^st post I responded to got into performance, and from then on performance was part and parcel to the thread. So in the end you’re correct, I allowed the thread to get off-track, and even helped it along, but I didn’t do it just to twist and turn the discussion so no answer could ever be good enough. The fact is, fatigue and performance are inexorably tied together, even though there can be great performance when fatigued, or poor performance where no fatigue exists.

Originally Posted by rynoattack:

You claim that you are just asking questions to get information.  That is not at all what it seems like.  Like I said earlier, when it appears that you are in the minority, and you seem to irritate most with your so called "questions", maybe you are the problem...

 

I can’t help what you believe, and frankly don’t care because although unlike PG I can’t say I’ve never lied about anything related to baseball because that’s a mighty broad statement, but I don’t flat out lie in order to win an argument or prove a point. I ask questions when I don’t understand, believe, or want to know more about something.

 

Stats:  I'm jumping into this with trepidation, but I'll tell you up front: My motives are selfish.

 

Can I ask a favor? Please don't copy my individual sentences and respond to them one by one? That's what I used to do way too frequently with my wife when we talked, and I learned that it just doesn't work. Even when I would let her finish, then pick apart her points one by one, I would end up maybe winning the argument, but losing something far more valuable.

 

You're a dad who loves baseball -- especially HS baseball -- which makes you kindred spirits with all of us here. You've been around the game a long time, and your passion is around bringing more science and  less guesswork to this great sport -- especially at the younger ages (An aside: Perfect Game's partnership with Trackman should be of great interest to you.)

 

You love statistics and believe they can teach us how to coach and play this game better. You love data and you love facts. When talking baseball, you don't care for subjective words like significant, good, bad, fast or slow -- because to you, they're practically useless.

 

I say good for you. No scout ever made a living with such words.

 

But then again, scouts do use those subjective words all the time, don't they? When a scout who has no tools of measurement on-hand is impressed by a ball player, he uses subjective words and phrases, doesn't he?  He says things like: "The kid has a gun from right field" "The boy has amazing bat speed."  or "He runs like the wind."

 

Do we dismiss his observations because they're subjective? Hell no! Do we expect his observations to be validated objectively later? Hell yes!

 

And so to my point:.

 

When someone on this forum responds to anther's questions subjectively, I believe we owe it to that person  to do a couple things:

 

1. Take their entire response in context, and thoughtfully reply. Or, at the very least, pick the money quote, and respond just to that. In other words, we owe it to them to listen.

 

2. Respect their experience, if they have any ... their body of work on HSBBW,  if we know of it, and their point of view  no matter what. When we respond with demands for specificity and objectivity, knowing they can't produce them (just like those scouts) we unnecessarily back them into corners .

 

Of course we can and should disagree with positions people take and try to change their minds when we believe differently; that's the value of this site. But so is acknowledging that sometimes others' subjective points of view are worth embracing just because they make sense.

 

When it's all said and done, Stats, I believe you have knowledge and experience that if shared, could help my son, JP, achieve his dreams. I hope you can move beyond your seeming desire to intellectualize every discussion, accept what is, and help those of us with boys on this amazing journey achieve their dreams.

Maybe we should find a way to talk with the coaching staff that Stats works with...and ask how they communicate with him, and how it works.  I'm serious. Maybe we're missing something here.  

I've dealt with Stats on this issue on other boards in the past. Usually, the subject of discussion is using a radar gun on younger (say 9-14) pitchers. I've always defended my position with the argument that it HELPS me to have a few readings taken every inning and get an idea of peak velocity, even at a young age. What I see is this. If velocity dips immediately by a substantial number, I worry about injury because pitchers have never been the best at admitting to arm problems in the middle of a game. Regardless, what I have found is that when the velocity declines over the game there comes a time where the pitcher makes slight alterations to his mechanics in an attempt to compensate for the loss in velocity. I believe it's instinct and the not necessarily something the pitcher thinks about. Often, these changes are minute and hard to spot unless you watch closely and are intimately familiar with the mechanics of the guy on the mound. Drops in velocity give me a good indicator of WHEN to start looking closely at the mechanics. I found that each individual pitcher I have had is consistent at what point in the velocity drop that starts happening.

 

As far as Stats goes, I've found that he often has a lot to add to any thread. I may mot agree with most of it, but it's worthy material despite the tone of the presentation. He also is a good source of off-the-wall stats that can be useful. For these reasons, I let a lot of the attitude go.

jp24,

 

There’s absolutely no reason to worry about what might happen. None of this is anything more than people trying to communicate in an environment not best suited to communication. Unless someone gets personal, I don’t worry much about what’s said to or about me because I know the only effect it has on me, is what I allow it to have.

 

I’m sorry if you feel I’m somehow disrespectful because I don’t take what anyone says as gospel, no matter who it is. But to me its not about the person, its about what’s said.

 

I seriously doubt anything I know can help your son or anyone else do anything to help them achieve their dreams, if those dreams are to play baseball at a level higher than HSV. All I do is my best at documenting what took place during games as much in accordance with the rules of the game as possible. For whatever reasons, to many that’s an insignificant thing, but those people seem to very often forget the rules require certain stats to be kept, then blame the keeper for doing what the rules require.

 

 

Originally Posted by James G:

Maybe we should find a way to talk with the coaching staff that Stats works with...and ask how they communicate with him, and how it works.  I'm serious. Maybe we're missing something here.  

 

Maybe you are, and maybe you aren’t. But you might wonder why I would be doing what I do for the same very successful HC in the same program, for the same AD and principal for going on 8 years. I think its safe to say I’m doing something a lot of people feel is a worthwhile contribution to the school and the program.

I think this is the best post that I have ever seen.  I think that you sum up a lot, while still giving credit.   Thanks for this post...

As the parent who runs the iScore for our Varsity Team, I run into the same issue with parents who want me to change their kids ROE to a Hit.  It is maddening...

This post is an example of the problem.  Several people have just made complimentary statements about you in their posts, and then you come back with a snarky, "maybe you are, and maybe, you aren't".  If you left those type of comments out, people might be more receptive to your message...

Originally Posted by rynoattack:

This post is an example of the problem.  Several people have just made complimentary statements about you in their posts, and then you come back with a snarky, "maybe you are, and maybe, you aren't".  If you left those type of comments out, people might be more receptive to your message...

 

JEEZ! Why is it that anything I say, no matter how I say it is taken as a snarky remark? I said that as a preface to sharing something that to most people would indicate someone who has the trust and respect of the people he personally works with, in order to address the thought, Maybe we're missing something here.

 

Its been hypothesized that I don’t recognize myself as doing or saying anything improper, and should do some self-reflection. Perhaps everyone should do a little self-reflection.

 

Originally Posted by TPM:

…Please tell me why should I do self reflection.

 

If you have to ask, you truly didn’t understand what I was trying to say, but you’re showing why I said it.

WOW!!!!! Draw your swords. My money is on TPM.

 

My money is on the alpha male.  

Paraphrasing Raylan Givens, "If you run into a egotist in the morning, you ran into an egotist.  If you run into egotists all day, you're the egotist."

Thanks for the vote of confidence!

 

I was just messing with stats, like he messes with us, wanted to know how he felt about copying his quotes and repeating the same question over and over and over.....

 

I think this topic has run its course.  Lets see how long in between he can wait until the next one.

 

I've been sideways once or twice with both TPM and Stats. The difference between the two is that TPM at least listens.

 

Sorry Stats. You don't. You ignore what you don't want to hear, and you challenge anything or anyone who doesn't conform to your myopic world view.

 

Have at it then. I find it, and you, incredibly boring.

 

And by the way: You're right. You really do offer nothing that could help JP achieve his dreams.

 

Too bad. TPM does.

Never mess with a Tiger Mom

 

Originally Posted by TPM:

…I was just messing with stats, like he messes with us, wanted to know how he felt about copying his quotes and repeating the same question over and over and over.....

 …

 

Just as I said, you’re showing why I said you don’t understand what I was trying to get across, but worse you’re admitting you do it on purpose.

 

But yes, you’re correct, the thread has run its course. Not because there isn’t more to discuss about it, but rather because there are too many people more intent on making a personal statement about me than the topic.

Stats,

There is a reason, obviously, you have a way of making people dislike how you go about your business here trying to get your point across. I understand (from some others here) that it happens on other boards as well. 

Maybe some self reflection and making a change on your part, would be better than to keep doing the same thing over and over and over and over.

 

Jeeezzz!  What are you people not getting!  It's not him!  It's everyone else!  Come on people!

I can't decide whether to nominate this for a Golden Thread or to beg for it to end.  Either way, it is entertaining, and I can't stop following along!  - All in jest, I appreciate everyone's passion and contributions...well, most anyway

TPM,

 

Maybe one day you’ll attempt to “discuss” the topic at hand rather than keep making personal attacks against me. Perhaps you should do what I suggest and look in the mirror yourself.

 

BucsFan,

 

As far as discussing anything about baseball, this thread went wayward a long time ago. I still maintain as I did in the OP that the original issue isn’t resolved. As far as I know, the only ”study” offered was offered by me, after having been given to me by a real Saber. Others have offered educated opinion and anecdotal evidence, but nothing that could be taken as anything other than that.

 

If people want to believe its worth the time and trouble to gun every pitch from every pitcher at every level to see if they can detect fatigue, personally I don’t care. But until I find repeatable proof to the contrary, I’ll continue to believe that a much better solution to the problem of detecting fatigue lies more in getting the experience necessary to detect the other things so many have agreed are good indicators.

I used to think it was an inability to detect unintentional irony, but now I'm pretty sure it's just the Dunning-Kruger effect at work.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...2%80%93Kruger_effect

Meh.  Dunning-Kruger does much to explain our current political landscape, but I do not believe applies here. You're talking about a highly intelligent man.

 

If I wanted to drudge up what little I learned in psyche 100 a zillion years ago, I'd lean more toward narcissism, which is what you get if you take stubbornness and feed it 'roids and HGH.

Stats,

 

Why can't a person have that experience and also pay attention to the gun readings? Are you saying "less" information is more valuable? If available I would want to know spin rate and shape also.  Certain things can't be seen from the dugout.  I would want to know as much information as is possible.

 

What makes all the information valuable is knowing the pitcher.  Every pitcher is different, I think we would agree on that.  So what if we discovered over a period of time, that a certain pitcher always fell apart within an inning of losing a certain amount of velocity?  Wouldn't we want that information?  Without the gun, we might use our experience, but with the gun we have data to go along with our experience.

 

If statistics are your game, how can you provide a totally accurate picture of a pitcher with no velocity readings.  When we chart pitchers we would have more information than you do.  So I would say your statistics are far from complete. When velocity, speed differentials, location, shape, etc., on every pitch is available... It tells more about the pitcher rather than having to guess how good the competition is based on the results.

 

Those with the very most "experience" are the ones that realize the more information you have the better decisions you make.  Anyone that thinks differently either lacks experience or has an ego problem.

 

The highway patrolman uses a radar gun.  He might have 30 years of experience and can tell you are speeding.  But he wants and needs accurate information!  And they put speedometers in cars.  Experienced drivers use them.  In tennis the speed of the serve is telling us which player is tiring the most.  

 

Speed is a very important ingredient in sports. Speed of the player, speed of the ball, speed of the bat, etc.  Ever see a coach with a stop watch?  Why?  

 

Bottom line... There certainly are indicators that a pitcher is fatigued or needs to be replaced.  Most everyone knows what they are, this is nothing new.  The radar gun is not the most important indicator.  It's simply giving you more information to contemplate. 

 

Usually the velocity coincides with the other indicators.  When it does, it's possible the radar gun reading is the first noticeable sign of concern. And sometimes it won't mean much at all.  That is where knowing your pitcher becomes most important.  And those radar gun readings are very much a part of knowing your pitcher.

Who knows. Dunning Kruger, aka "Captain Queeg" syndrome, would explain it pretty well. Serious Aspergers Syndrome could too. Or could be plain ole narcissism I guess. The length of posts, excessive efforts to seize on each and every minute point directed toward him in responses, and continual efforts to solicit continued discussion... ANY discussion, good, bad or indifferent so long as it involves him... point to something out of whack for sure.  Stats seeks, savors and craves the attention he gets here... trolls for it like clockwork as soon as a thread he's started (or pirated) begins to die down. So long as he gets response and attention, he'll continue. But as I said in a different thread... I think he has the right to post and challenge as he likes on an open forum like this. Occasionally, he strikes on a legit point or spurs good information from more knowledgeable participants. "Even a broke clock is right twice a day." 

I did that, you may not have noticed. You asked a question, yes loss of velo can signal that the pitcher is tired.  No, I do not have stats or metrics to back that up.

 

People are tired of trying to engage in a topic with you when their responses are picked apart and argued. Do you get that?

 

Stats, it all comes down to knowing the pitcher, this has been stated  over and over, sometimes saber metrics, stats whatever, may have no validity at that moment.

 

Do you think that when a coach sees a pitcher in trouble in a game, he is going to ask for a rundown of his metrics to decide if he should stay in or not and what might be the issue? NO. 

 

Are you talking youth, HS, college or pro here? There would be a difference as to what action the manager/coach may take.

 

Why is this so difficult to understand?

 

If you do not like our responses, why do you continually post here?