It is Past Time to Face Reality

Something to keep in mind. Sheltering-in-place isn't a means to defeat the virus, it isn't going to magically go away. We can only try to slow it's spread so the health care system isn't overwhelmed. I know a lot of people who have this misunderstanding around me. We are all, at some point, going to get this bug. There may be a lucky few who might make it to a vaccine without getting sick, but not many. So yeah, at some point we are all going to have to put on our big boy pants and get on with life alongside COVID-19. At least until there is a vaccine, which is at least a year (best case) away.

I think the “cure/cause” debate will be moot next week when we’ve run out of ventilators.  It’s easy to debate hypotheticals. It will be much less so when it’s a reality.  

With that said, I know I’ve spent more time than normal fixating on my 2022 and how we will navigate his recruitment. Upon reflection, it’s clearly a coping mechanism. 

Then why is the IHME model having to be revised almost daily because the predictions (which are ruling our policy) have been so off on the high end? The government and people know that the clock is ticking. Things will be back to "normal" as in "open" by summer. Why? Because at some point the country will realize having 10 million and counting unemployed, savings, mortgage, etc ravaged is not sustainable. We will need to make a choice and keep on living. 

Take Oregon for instance. 4 million people. Look at IHME model. If they did NOTHING, no lockdown, they would lose an average of 2 more people as usual per day (compared to all deaths). With lockdown they are on average saving 2 deaths per day through May. Are 2 lives worth saving compared to zero? Of course, we don't want to lose anybody. But shut down an entire state for that statistic? Things aren't adding up. 

The CDC can't even explain how they came up with the 100-240k death projection anymore because all these models are screwed. We're punishing the country for basically 2-4 states that are really bad. 

As soon as the hydrochloro treatment numbers are federally looked at and approved for treatment (so far numbers from other countries are phenomenal) we will have relief until a vaccine.

Call me an optimist or crazy person, but I'm in the camp that we will be alright once May ends. You will see a social, emotional, societal revolt if we keep this up much longer. 

Our best bet is to look at other countries and see what is working. Sweden has only isolated the elderly and compromised population, everyone else goes about their business. Look at the numbers there. 

We need serology tests asap to see the real infected and antibody stats. Our best fight is herd immunity until a vaccine, and that doesn't work unless we go back to our normal routines. 

Keep looking at the IHME model for individual states, keep seeing the changes. 

I am not sure ventilator capacities will factor all that much into the final equation.  Depending on what study you believe, once a ventilator is needed you have somewhere between a coin flip best case scenario and a 90% chance of death.  If you take the average, 70% of patients who are put on a ventilator  will die.  The fight has to be won before the vent is needed.  The capacity issue that will matter is the cocktail of antiviral and antibacterial drugs that keep patients from getting sick enough to need mechanical breathing assistance.

SomeBaseballDad posted:

Something to keep in mind. Sheltering-in-place isn't a means to defeat the virus, it isn't going to magically go away. We can only try to slow it's spread so the health care system isn't overwhelmed. I know a lot of people who have this misunderstanding around me. We are all, at some point, going to get this bug. There may be a lucky few who might make it to a vaccine without getting sick, but not many. So yeah, at some point we are all going to have to put on our big boy pants and get on with life alongside COVID-19. At least until there is a vaccine, which is at least a year (best case) away.

Good post and very sobering.  We live in a state that in some parts are extremely overwhelmed, 1565 confirmed, 22 deaths in my county. Total in Florida, 9585 confirmed, 163 deaths. We stay in because our counties health system is overwhelmed. But because this is Florida, for many it's hard to stay indoors. We live our lives outside.  Every single day. 

James G posted:

Then why is the IHME model having to be revised almost daily because the predictions (which are ruling our policy) have been so off on the high end? The government and people know that the clock is ticking. Things will be back to "normal" as in "open" by summer. Why? Because at some point the country will realize having 10 million and counting unemployed, savings, mortgage, etc ravaged is not sustainable. We will need to make a choice and keep on living. 

Take Oregon for instance. 4 million people. Look at IHME model. If they did NOTHING, no lockdown, they would lose an average of 2 more people as usual per day (compared to all deaths). With lockdown they are on average saving 2 deaths per day through May. Are 2 lives worth saving compared to zero? Of course, we don't want to lose anybody. But shut down an entire state for that statistic? Things aren't adding up. 

The CDC can't even explain how they came up with the 100-240k death projection anymore because all these models are screwed. We're punishing the country for basically 2-4 states that are really bad. 

As soon as the hydrochloro treatment numbers are federally looked at and approved for treatment (so far numbers from other countries are phenomenal) we will have relief until a vaccine.

Call me an optimist or crazy person, but I'm in the camp that we will be alright once May ends. You will see a social, emotional, societal revolt if we keep this up much longer. 

Our best bet is to look at other countries and see what is working. Sweden has only isolated the elderly and compromised population, everyone else goes about their business. Look at the numbers there. 

We need serology tests asap to see the real infected and antibody stats. Our best fight is herd immunity until a vaccine, and that doesn't work unless we go back to our normal routines. 

Keep looking at the IHME model for individual states, keep seeing the changes. 

 

 

Problem really is, the left foot doesn't know what the right foot is doing. 

James G I love your optimism❤️

cabbagedad posted:

Obviously, most all of us here have some very strong connection to baseball.  Many have kids who are currently deeply invested in the game.  We're very worried about summer ball, recruiting and scholarship issues, maintaining training regimens, inflated future college rosters and transfer issues, the draft, lack of pay for coaches and on and on.  It often feels bigger than life.  

Right now, there is something far bigger going on.  This virus is going to cause death and economic ruin like most of us have never experienced.  We live in a very large country with a very large population.  This is just the beginning - just a few of our many large cities have been hit particularly hard so far.  IMO, the cycle will last longer in our country than in others for this and many reasons.  Some here are mimicking the "cure can't be worse than the problem" motto.  Our healthcare system and supply pipeline is already pushed to the brink and we haven't scratched the surface on the peak of the pandemic.  As it is, we will see tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands die in the US in the next six months or so.  Many of us will not be able to be with loved ones as they perish alone.  Many will not even be able to attend their own loved one's funerals.  Throwing caution (and stay-in-place orders) to the wind in the interest of preventing some degree of economic and financial loss will, with certainty, cause the death rate to be far worse.  It's not as simple as saying "the cure can't be worse than the problem".

We need to shift our focus.  We need to start accepting that there will be no summer baseball.  Expanding programs and/or adding games in the fall is not realistic either.  No one is going to show up on their college campus in the Fall razor-sharp from game competition.  The only baseball-related silver lining is that the next realistic window of competitive baseball games to be played won't be until next Spring. 

This gives us time to pause and re-prioritize.  Time to focus on what is really important to us.  Time to see other aspects of life.  Time to recognize how fortunate we are that our sons are alive and healthy and we're still here to enjoy them for all of who they are, not just the baseball player.  Time to figure out how to help others in our communities.  Time to figure out how to contribute with efforts to keep fatalities as low as possible.  

It is not my intent to open up a thread to political debate.  Also, I know that this site can be a bit of a refuge and hopefully will continue to be.  We can escape, momentarily, from the escalating problems going on around us.  I'm not trying to discourage that.  I just think we need to come to grips with what we are dealing with, put things in proper perspective and put our best foot forward as human beings.  We'll need that from each other more than ever.

 

This post has many great points for sure but it seems your overriding post has to do with facing the reality of no summer baseball and I read that as meaning no summer baseball leagues for college kids which seems to be topical today.  I have no opinion on that but I do think there will be opportunities depending on where you are in the country to see baseball in the late spring and summer.   

The only question I have is for the comment on the cure being worse than the disease. No one says its that simple but ask yourself this - when do you think it will be ok to start to return to normalcy?   Some will say not until there is a vaccine - that could be 18 months.  Those people have every right to think this and should stay isolated.   If the answer is not waiting till a vaccine -what is the right answer; two weeks after the peak in an area, 2 weeks after the peak in the country, 4,6,8 weeks after either?  Something different - when tests determine if you have the antibodies and 50% of an area has them?  If 75% of your community had the disease?  If you want to be honest and ask about the reality you have to confront this question and then think through all the ramifications around your answer.  It's not an easy decision and no two of us would have the same answer. 

I especially appreciate your comment about this not being a political thread.  This is not political and there are ample blogs to get the self-affirmation we need to support our political views.  This blog shouldn't be one of them.

The fact is we have to return to normal at some point and this is still going to be a threat.  It is going to have to come down to people who are at risk and immune compromised stay home.  Waivers will need to be available to those who feel they are at risk or a risk to others in terms of school, work, etc., but the general population has to go back at some point.  It's just a matter of how much damage has been done to the individuals, businesses, and overall economy when we do.

Gunner Mack Jr. posted

 

  If the answer is not waiting till a vaccine -what is the right answer; two weeks after the peak in an area, 2 weeks after the peak in the country, 4,6,8 weeks after either?  Something different - when tests determine if you have the antibodies and 50% of an area has them?  If 75% of your community had the disease?  

I understand that one of the hopes is this virus isn't prone mutation and will be in line with chickenpox, where you get it once and done. 

baseballhs posted:

The fact is we have to return to normal at some point and this is still going to be a threat.  It is going to have to come down to people who are at risk and immune compromised stay home.  Waivers will need to be available to those who feel they are at risk or a risk to others in terms of school, work, etc., but the general population has to go back at some point.  It's just a matter of how much damage has been done to the individuals, businesses, and overall economy when we do.

I think you are right, you can't have the whole country stay home for 16 months, but the problem is, how does it work in practice?  Restarting schools - but every kid with a high-risk person at home needs a waiver, how does that work?  How many waivers before it doesn't work?  Sending kids back to college - how do colleges manage if they have hundreds of sick students at once, which is probably what would happen?  What about high-risk teachers?  Coaches?

40% of Americans over the age of 20 are obese.  10% have diabetes, 33% have high blood pressure, 5% have COPD, 8% have asthma, 49% have heart disease, 15% have kidney disease.  21% are over the age of 60.  Who is not high-risk? 

I tried out on my son the idea that they should put all non-high-risk college-age people in large camps and just hope they all get the virus, and take care of them until (hopefully) they recover.  He didn't think much of the idea.  But, how else would you do it?

I believe the US will be open for business this summer. There won’t be a choice. We can’t have 30%+ unemployment. We can’t have millions of people not capable of paying their bills and purchasing food. 40% of the country would have to use a credit card to handle a surprise $1,000 bill.

But it won’t be life as normal. It will be cautious. It will be like race cars following the pace car during a yellow caution flag. It will be work and go home if not work at home. Corporations have to be thinking right now how they can expand work at home.** Baseball will be considered nonessential. 

** When I came out of college it was unthinkable sales could be done without getting in front of the customer. Inside sales with online demos were unthinkable. By 1995 a lot of companies were doing it.

Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

cabbagedad posted:

Obviously, most all of us here have some very strong connection to baseball.  Many have kids who are currently deeply invested in the game.  We're very worried about summer ball, recruiting and scholarship issues, maintaining training regimens, inflated future college rosters and transfer issues, the draft, lack of pay for coaches and on and on.  It often feels bigger than life.  

Right now, there is something far bigger going on.  This virus is going to cause death and economic ruin like most of us have never experienced.  We live in a very large country with a very large population.  This is just the beginning - just a few of our many large cities have been hit particularly hard so far.  IMO, the cycle will last longer in our country than in others for this and many reasons.  Some here are mimicking the "cure can't be worse than the problem" motto.  Our healthcare system and supply pipeline is already pushed to the brink and we haven't scratched the surface on the peak of the pandemic.  As it is, we will see tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands die in the US in the next six months or so.  Many of us will not be able to be with loved ones as they perish alone.  Many will not even be able to attend their own loved one's funerals.  Throwing caution (and stay-in-place orders) to the wind in the interest of preventing some degree of economic and financial loss will, with certainty, cause the death rate to be far worse.  It's not as simple as saying "the cure can't be worse than the problem".

We need to shift our focus.  We need to start accepting that there will be no summer baseball.  Expanding programs and/or adding games in the fall is not realistic either.  No one is going to show up on their college campus in the Fall razor-sharp from game competition.  The only baseball-related silver lining is that the next realistic window of competitive baseball games to be played won't be until next Spring. 

This gives us time to pause and re-prioritize.  Time to focus on what is really important to us.  Time to see other aspects of life.  Time to recognize how fortunate we are that our sons are alive and healthy and we're still here to enjoy them for all of who they are, not just the baseball player.  Time to figure out how to help others in our communities.  Time to figure out how to contribute with efforts to keep fatalities as low as possible.  

It is not my intent to open up a thread to political debate.  Also, I know that this site can be a bit of a refuge and hopefully will continue to be.  We can escape, momentarily, from the escalating problems going on around us.  I'm not trying to discourage that.  I just think we need to come to grips with what we are dealing with, put things in proper perspective and put our best foot forward as human beings.  We'll need that from each other more than ever.

 

This post has many great points for sure but it seems your overriding post has to do with facing the reality of no summer baseball and I read that as meaning no summer baseball leagues for college kids which seems to be topical today.  I have no opinion on that but I do think there will be opportunities depending on where you are in the country to see baseball in the late spring and summer.   

The only question I have is for the comment on the cure being worse than the disease. No one says its that simple but ask yourself this - when do you think it will be ok to start to return to normalcy?   Some will say not until there is a vaccine - that could be 18 months.  Those people have every right to think this and should stay isolated.   If the answer is not waiting till a vaccine -what is the right answer; two weeks after the peak in an area, 2 weeks after the peak in the country, 4,6,8 weeks after either?  Something different - when tests determine if you have the antibodies and 50% of an area has them?  If 75% of your community had the disease?  If you want to be honest and ask about the reality you have to confront this question and then think through all the ramifications around your answer.  It's not an easy decision and no two of us would have the same answer. 

I especially appreciate your comment about this not being a political thread.  This is not political and there are ample blogs to get the self-affirmation we need to support our political views.  This blog shouldn't be one of them.

Of course, this is all JMO and I am certainly not an expert but have been paying close attention to ALL the facts coming in, not just the viewpoints I prefer to believe or those with underlying motive.

I believe that "return to normalcy" will be as RJM states, a gradual step process.  But, we will need to go through more peaking first, which will bring on several new major crises.  We will need to work diligently to improve our situation with access to PPE's, ventilators, etc. This process will certainly be months, not weeks.  

We MAY find ourselves trying to open the country back up for SOME business mid-summer but it will be baby steps and very limited at the outset (and, BTW, restarting summer, college and HS baseball will certainly not be anywhere near the front of the line).

Anotherparent points to some excellent information about the overall health of Americans.  We are a nation with enormous numbers of "high risk" citizens.  Getting high schools and colleges back on track in the fall will require a HUGE undertaking.  The students themselves are not necessarily or relatively high risk but the teachers and staff they interact with as well as the families they go home to and the people at the places they congregate otherwise are another story.  We may or may not be ready to pull that off come fall.  

I believe we are going to have to collectively get our $hit together and a lot of things are going to have to go really right if we are going to be able to start recovery with these timeframes in mind.  It has been an awful long time since we as Americans have been able to come together and decide to pull in the same direction to accomplish such a feat.  I have seen some encouraging signs the last few weeks.  I also still see cavernous obstacles.

I am certainly hopeful.  I never wished more that my gut feeling and opinion would be wrong than with this. 

I thought most here would enjoy this brief article:

https://palmbeachhighschoolbas...da-baseball/01022288

Terrible Thrower,

Are you from Palm Beach?

Martin County

Sorry I left out the BP! 

Broward here. How are things up there.

cabbagedad,

I'm right there with you.   This is a life altering occurrence that we won't get over for a long time.  I believe at last count we were a 330 million person country, and this is has absolutely stymied everything we do.   From my perspective, this is a terrible way for the "Greatest Generation" (as depicted by Tom Brokaw's book)   to go out, and we are pretty much powerless to help them.   We owe them so much.   BTW..I've been passing the time by burying myself in history and WWII documentaries.   My mother in law and my parents are left to fend for themselves and it tears me up everyday that I can't help them.

I'm a child of the cold war and the nuclear proliferation that carried over the 60s', 70's, 80's.   It is part of my psyche, and it has never left me.   I can still remember our classroom drills of getting under the desk.   Well, I think there is a new enemy, and there is no hiding.   Will it have a long-term effect on today's young people?  It certainly has most of our youth's short-term attention.   Until we have vaccines and ways to deal with the virus (and others like it) it is going to change our lives significantly.   MLB made some earlier statements about trying to salvage a 2020 season, because "there has always been baseball, even after 9/11".  I honestly don't see it happening.   I don't see any professional sports in 2020.    I know nobody wants to hear that.   I love sports as much as the next person.  But this virus brought us all back to the base of Maslow's hierarchy of needs...safety.   And frankly, that is where we need to be at this time.   Our government leaders got a very quick dose of reality.   It took a while, but they are on it and owning it now.   They have a tough job, and we've got to help the cause by staying home until the fridge is empty.

As RJM posted some of the business side effects of Covid-19.   I'm used to working at home when I'm not on an airplane going to meet my customers.   This is not a huge adjustment for me, but I know it is for a lot of people and their spouses.   This crisis is going to make or break some marriages.   I've heard some funny and not so funny stories about husband and wife working out of their homes with younger kids.   It is tough.   I used to dread working out of my house when my 3 sons were younger...it was never quiet.   My customers (large global 30 companies) have invested heavily in infrastructure to have their employees work from home.   I have 3 large "work-from-home" project implementations going on right now.    Many of these customers saw this possible virus event happening months ago and bought a solution accordingly.   So, tech supply chain took a hit because many companies are doing this, but it will slowly rebound.   The large companies have the resources to deal with this, but I'd worry about mid-sized businesses.  Just my experiences...

For recent college grads, I'm not sure what I'd say.  Yes it is disappointing to have to face this virus, but you've got to keep learning new things and skills.   They are young and they've got time on their side.   Possibly the answer for some is to pursue an advanced degree, or learn new skills that can be parlayed with their degrees.   Whatever they decide it isn't going to be easy for them or the rest of us.

As, always JMO.   Y'all be safe out there!