It is Past Time to Face Reality

Something to keep in mind. Sheltering-in-place isn't a means to defeat the virus, it isn't going to magically go away. We can only try to slow it's spread so the health care system isn't overwhelmed. I know a lot of people who have this misunderstanding around me. We are all, at some point, going to get this bug. There may be a lucky few who might make it to a vaccine without getting sick, but not many. So yeah, at some point we are all going to have to put on our big boy pants and get on with life alongside COVID-19. At least until there is a vaccine, which is at least a year (best case) away.

I think the “cure/cause” debate will be moot next week when we’ve run out of ventilators.  It’s easy to debate hypotheticals. It will be much less so when it’s a reality.  

With that said, I know I’ve spent more time than normal fixating on my 2022 and how we will navigate his recruitment. Upon reflection, it’s clearly a coping mechanism. 

Then why is the IHME model having to be revised almost daily because the predictions (which are ruling our policy) have been so off on the high end? The government and people know that the clock is ticking. Things will be back to "normal" as in "open" by summer. Why? Because at some point the country will realize having 10 million and counting unemployed, savings, mortgage, etc ravaged is not sustainable. We will need to make a choice and keep on living. 

Take Oregon for instance. 4 million people. Look at IHME model. If they did NOTHING, no lockdown, they would lose an average of 2 more people as usual per day (compared to all deaths). With lockdown they are on average saving 2 deaths per day through May. Are 2 lives worth saving compared to zero? Of course, we don't want to lose anybody. But shut down an entire state for that statistic? Things aren't adding up. 

The CDC can't even explain how they came up with the 100-240k death projection anymore because all these models are screwed. We're punishing the country for basically 2-4 states that are really bad. 

As soon as the hydrochloro treatment numbers are federally looked at and approved for treatment (so far numbers from other countries are phenomenal) we will have relief until a vaccine.

Call me an optimist or crazy person, but I'm in the camp that we will be alright once May ends. You will see a social, emotional, societal revolt if we keep this up much longer. 

Our best bet is to look at other countries and see what is working. Sweden has only isolated the elderly and compromised population, everyone else goes about their business. Look at the numbers there. 

We need serology tests asap to see the real infected and antibody stats. Our best fight is herd immunity until a vaccine, and that doesn't work unless we go back to our normal routines. 

Keep looking at the IHME model for individual states, keep seeing the changes. 

I am not sure ventilator capacities will factor all that much into the final equation.  Depending on what study you believe, once a ventilator is needed you have somewhere between a coin flip best case scenario and a 90% chance of death.  If you take the average, 70% of patients who are put on a ventilator  will die.  The fight has to be won before the vent is needed.  The capacity issue that will matter is the cocktail of antiviral and antibacterial drugs that keep patients from getting sick enough to need mechanical breathing assistance.

SomeBaseballDad posted:

Something to keep in mind. Sheltering-in-place isn't a means to defeat the virus, it isn't going to magically go away. We can only try to slow it's spread so the health care system isn't overwhelmed. I know a lot of people who have this misunderstanding around me. We are all, at some point, going to get this bug. There may be a lucky few who might make it to a vaccine without getting sick, but not many. So yeah, at some point we are all going to have to put on our big boy pants and get on with life alongside COVID-19. At least until there is a vaccine, which is at least a year (best case) away.

Good post and very sobering.  We live in a state that in some parts are extremely overwhelmed, 1565 confirmed, 22 deaths in my county. Total in Florida, 9585 confirmed, 163 deaths. We stay in because our counties health system is overwhelmed. But because this is Florida, for many it's hard to stay indoors. We live our lives outside.  Every single day. 

James G posted:

Then why is the IHME model having to be revised almost daily because the predictions (which are ruling our policy) have been so off on the high end? The government and people know that the clock is ticking. Things will be back to "normal" as in "open" by summer. Why? Because at some point the country will realize having 10 million and counting unemployed, savings, mortgage, etc ravaged is not sustainable. We will need to make a choice and keep on living. 

Take Oregon for instance. 4 million people. Look at IHME model. If they did NOTHING, no lockdown, they would lose an average of 2 more people as usual per day (compared to all deaths). With lockdown they are on average saving 2 deaths per day through May. Are 2 lives worth saving compared to zero? Of course, we don't want to lose anybody. But shut down an entire state for that statistic? Things aren't adding up. 

The CDC can't even explain how they came up with the 100-240k death projection anymore because all these models are screwed. We're punishing the country for basically 2-4 states that are really bad. 

As soon as the hydrochloro treatment numbers are federally looked at and approved for treatment (so far numbers from other countries are phenomenal) we will have relief until a vaccine.

Call me an optimist or crazy person, but I'm in the camp that we will be alright once May ends. You will see a social, emotional, societal revolt if we keep this up much longer. 

Our best bet is to look at other countries and see what is working. Sweden has only isolated the elderly and compromised population, everyone else goes about their business. Look at the numbers there. 

We need serology tests asap to see the real infected and antibody stats. Our best fight is herd immunity until a vaccine, and that doesn't work unless we go back to our normal routines. 

Keep looking at the IHME model for individual states, keep seeing the changes. 

 

 

Problem really is, the left foot doesn't know what the right foot is doing. 

James G I love your optimism❤️

cabbagedad posted:

Obviously, most all of us here have some very strong connection to baseball.  Many have kids who are currently deeply invested in the game.  We're very worried about summer ball, recruiting and scholarship issues, maintaining training regimens, inflated future college rosters and transfer issues, the draft, lack of pay for coaches and on and on.  It often feels bigger than life.  

Right now, there is something far bigger going on.  This virus is going to cause death and economic ruin like most of us have never experienced.  We live in a very large country with a very large population.  This is just the beginning - just a few of our many large cities have been hit particularly hard so far.  IMO, the cycle will last longer in our country than in others for this and many reasons.  Some here are mimicking the "cure can't be worse than the problem" motto.  Our healthcare system and supply pipeline is already pushed to the brink and we haven't scratched the surface on the peak of the pandemic.  As it is, we will see tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands die in the US in the next six months or so.  Many of us will not be able to be with loved ones as they perish alone.  Many will not even be able to attend their own loved one's funerals.  Throwing caution (and stay-in-place orders) to the wind in the interest of preventing some degree of economic and financial loss will, with certainty, cause the death rate to be far worse.  It's not as simple as saying "the cure can't be worse than the problem".

We need to shift our focus.  We need to start accepting that there will be no summer baseball.  Expanding programs and/or adding games in the fall is not realistic either.  No one is going to show up on their college campus in the Fall razor-sharp from game competition.  The only baseball-related silver lining is that the next realistic window of competitive baseball games to be played won't be until next Spring. 

This gives us time to pause and re-prioritize.  Time to focus on what is really important to us.  Time to see other aspects of life.  Time to recognize how fortunate we are that our sons are alive and healthy and we're still here to enjoy them for all of who they are, not just the baseball player.  Time to figure out how to help others in our communities.  Time to figure out how to contribute with efforts to keep fatalities as low as possible.  

It is not my intent to open up a thread to political debate.  Also, I know that this site can be a bit of a refuge and hopefully will continue to be.  We can escape, momentarily, from the escalating problems going on around us.  I'm not trying to discourage that.  I just think we need to come to grips with what we are dealing with, put things in proper perspective and put our best foot forward as human beings.  We'll need that from each other more than ever.

 

This post has many great points for sure but it seems your overriding post has to do with facing the reality of no summer baseball and I read that as meaning no summer baseball leagues for college kids which seems to be topical today.  I have no opinion on that but I do think there will be opportunities depending on where you are in the country to see baseball in the late spring and summer.   

The only question I have is for the comment on the cure being worse than the disease. No one says its that simple but ask yourself this - when do you think it will be ok to start to return to normalcy?   Some will say not until there is a vaccine - that could be 18 months.  Those people have every right to think this and should stay isolated.   If the answer is not waiting till a vaccine -what is the right answer; two weeks after the peak in an area, 2 weeks after the peak in the country, 4,6,8 weeks after either?  Something different - when tests determine if you have the antibodies and 50% of an area has them?  If 75% of your community had the disease?  If you want to be honest and ask about the reality you have to confront this question and then think through all the ramifications around your answer.  It's not an easy decision and no two of us would have the same answer. 

I especially appreciate your comment about this not being a political thread.  This is not political and there are ample blogs to get the self-affirmation we need to support our political views.  This blog shouldn't be one of them.

The fact is we have to return to normal at some point and this is still going to be a threat.  It is going to have to come down to people who are at risk and immune compromised stay home.  Waivers will need to be available to those who feel they are at risk or a risk to others in terms of school, work, etc., but the general population has to go back at some point.  It's just a matter of how much damage has been done to the individuals, businesses, and overall economy when we do.

Gunner Mack Jr. posted

 

  If the answer is not waiting till a vaccine -what is the right answer; two weeks after the peak in an area, 2 weeks after the peak in the country, 4,6,8 weeks after either?  Something different - when tests determine if you have the antibodies and 50% of an area has them?  If 75% of your community had the disease?  

I understand that one of the hopes is this virus isn't prone mutation and will be in line with chickenpox, where you get it once and done. 

baseballhs posted:

The fact is we have to return to normal at some point and this is still going to be a threat.  It is going to have to come down to people who are at risk and immune compromised stay home.  Waivers will need to be available to those who feel they are at risk or a risk to others in terms of school, work, etc., but the general population has to go back at some point.  It's just a matter of how much damage has been done to the individuals, businesses, and overall economy when we do.

I think you are right, you can't have the whole country stay home for 16 months, but the problem is, how does it work in practice?  Restarting schools - but every kid with a high-risk person at home needs a waiver, how does that work?  How many waivers before it doesn't work?  Sending kids back to college - how do colleges manage if they have hundreds of sick students at once, which is probably what would happen?  What about high-risk teachers?  Coaches?

40% of Americans over the age of 20 are obese.  10% have diabetes, 33% have high blood pressure, 5% have COPD, 8% have asthma, 49% have heart disease, 15% have kidney disease.  21% are over the age of 60.  Who is not high-risk? 

I tried out on my son the idea that they should put all non-high-risk college-age people in large camps and just hope they all get the virus, and take care of them until (hopefully) they recover.  He didn't think much of the idea.  But, how else would you do it?

I believe the US will be open for business this summer. There won’t be a choice. We can’t have 30%+ unemployment. We can’t have millions of people not capable of paying their bills and purchasing food. 40% of the country would have to use a credit card to handle a surprise $1,000 bill.

But it won’t be life as normal. It will be cautious. It will be like race cars following the pace car during a yellow caution flag. It will be work and go home if not work at home. Corporations have to be thinking right now how they can expand work at home.** Baseball will be considered nonessential. 

** When I came out of college it was unthinkable sales could be done without getting in front of the customer. Inside sales with online demos were unthinkable. By 1995 a lot of companies were doing it.

Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

cabbagedad posted:

Obviously, most all of us here have some very strong connection to baseball.  Many have kids who are currently deeply invested in the game.  We're very worried about summer ball, recruiting and scholarship issues, maintaining training regimens, inflated future college rosters and transfer issues, the draft, lack of pay for coaches and on and on.  It often feels bigger than life.  

Right now, there is something far bigger going on.  This virus is going to cause death and economic ruin like most of us have never experienced.  We live in a very large country with a very large population.  This is just the beginning - just a few of our many large cities have been hit particularly hard so far.  IMO, the cycle will last longer in our country than in others for this and many reasons.  Some here are mimicking the "cure can't be worse than the problem" motto.  Our healthcare system and supply pipeline is already pushed to the brink and we haven't scratched the surface on the peak of the pandemic.  As it is, we will see tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands die in the US in the next six months or so.  Many of us will not be able to be with loved ones as they perish alone.  Many will not even be able to attend their own loved one's funerals.  Throwing caution (and stay-in-place orders) to the wind in the interest of preventing some degree of economic and financial loss will, with certainty, cause the death rate to be far worse.  It's not as simple as saying "the cure can't be worse than the problem".

We need to shift our focus.  We need to start accepting that there will be no summer baseball.  Expanding programs and/or adding games in the fall is not realistic either.  No one is going to show up on their college campus in the Fall razor-sharp from game competition.  The only baseball-related silver lining is that the next realistic window of competitive baseball games to be played won't be until next Spring. 

This gives us time to pause and re-prioritize.  Time to focus on what is really important to us.  Time to see other aspects of life.  Time to recognize how fortunate we are that our sons are alive and healthy and we're still here to enjoy them for all of who they are, not just the baseball player.  Time to figure out how to help others in our communities.  Time to figure out how to contribute with efforts to keep fatalities as low as possible.  

It is not my intent to open up a thread to political debate.  Also, I know that this site can be a bit of a refuge and hopefully will continue to be.  We can escape, momentarily, from the escalating problems going on around us.  I'm not trying to discourage that.  I just think we need to come to grips with what we are dealing with, put things in proper perspective and put our best foot forward as human beings.  We'll need that from each other more than ever.

 

This post has many great points for sure but it seems your overriding post has to do with facing the reality of no summer baseball and I read that as meaning no summer baseball leagues for college kids which seems to be topical today.  I have no opinion on that but I do think there will be opportunities depending on where you are in the country to see baseball in the late spring and summer.   

The only question I have is for the comment on the cure being worse than the disease. No one says its that simple but ask yourself this - when do you think it will be ok to start to return to normalcy?   Some will say not until there is a vaccine - that could be 18 months.  Those people have every right to think this and should stay isolated.   If the answer is not waiting till a vaccine -what is the right answer; two weeks after the peak in an area, 2 weeks after the peak in the country, 4,6,8 weeks after either?  Something different - when tests determine if you have the antibodies and 50% of an area has them?  If 75% of your community had the disease?  If you want to be honest and ask about the reality you have to confront this question and then think through all the ramifications around your answer.  It's not an easy decision and no two of us would have the same answer. 

I especially appreciate your comment about this not being a political thread.  This is not political and there are ample blogs to get the self-affirmation we need to support our political views.  This blog shouldn't be one of them.

Of course, this is all JMO and I am certainly not an expert but have been paying close attention to ALL the facts coming in, not just the viewpoints I prefer to believe or those with underlying motive.

I believe that "return to normalcy" will be as RJM states, a gradual step process.  But, we will need to go through more peaking first, which will bring on several new major crises.  We will need to work diligently to improve our situation with access to PPE's, ventilators, etc. This process will certainly be months, not weeks.  

We MAY find ourselves trying to open the country back up for SOME business mid-summer but it will be baby steps and very limited at the outset (and, BTW, restarting summer, college and HS baseball will certainly not be anywhere near the front of the line).

Anotherparent points to some excellent information about the overall health of Americans.  We are a nation with enormous numbers of "high risk" citizens.  Getting high schools and colleges back on track in the fall will require a HUGE undertaking.  The students themselves are not necessarily or relatively high risk but the teachers and staff they interact with as well as the families they go home to and the people at the places they congregate otherwise are another story.  We may or may not be ready to pull that off come fall.  

I believe we are going to have to collectively get our $hit together and a lot of things are going to have to go really right if we are going to be able to start recovery with these timeframes in mind.  It has been an awful long time since we as Americans have been able to come together and decide to pull in the same direction to accomplish such a feat.  I have seen some encouraging signs the last few weeks.  I also still see cavernous obstacles.

I am certainly hopeful.  I never wished more that my gut feeling and opinion would be wrong than with this. 

I thought most here would enjoy this brief article:

https://palmbeachhighschoolbas...da-baseball/01022288

Terrible Thrower,

Are you from Palm Beach?

Martin County

Sorry I left out the BP! 

Broward here. How are things up there.

cabbagedad,

I'm right there with you.   This is a life altering occurrence that we won't get over for a long time.  I believe at last count we were a 330 million person country, and this is has absolutely stymied everything we do.   From my perspective, this is a terrible way for the "Greatest Generation" (as depicted by Tom Brokaw's book)   to go out, and we are pretty much powerless to help them.   We owe them so much.   BTW..I've been passing the time by burying myself in history and WWII documentaries.   My mother in law and my parents are left to fend for themselves and it tears me up everyday that I can't help them.

I'm a child of the cold war and the nuclear proliferation that carried over the 60s', 70's, 80's.   It is part of my psyche, and it has never left me.   I can still remember our classroom drills of getting under the desk.   Well, I think there is a new enemy, and there is no hiding.   Will it have a long-term effect on today's young people?  It certainly has most of our youth's short-term attention.   Until we have vaccines and ways to deal with the virus (and others like it) it is going to change our lives significantly.   MLB made some earlier statements about trying to salvage a 2020 season, because "there has always been baseball, even after 9/11".  I honestly don't see it happening.   I don't see any professional sports in 2020.    I know nobody wants to hear that.   I love sports as much as the next person.  But this virus brought us all back to the base of Maslow's hierarchy of needs...safety.   And frankly, that is where we need to be at this time.   Our government leaders got a very quick dose of reality.   It took a while, but they are on it and owning it now.   They have a tough job, and we've got to help the cause by staying home until the fridge is empty.

As RJM posted some of the business side effects of Covid-19.   I'm used to working at home when I'm not on an airplane going to meet my customers.   This is not a huge adjustment for me, but I know it is for a lot of people and their spouses.   This crisis is going to make or break some marriages.   I've heard some funny and not so funny stories about husband and wife working out of their homes with younger kids.   It is tough.   I used to dread working out of my house when my 3 sons were younger...it was never quiet.   My customers (large global 30 companies) have invested heavily in infrastructure to have their employees work from home.   I have 3 large "work-from-home" project implementations going on right now.    Many of these customers saw this possible virus event happening months ago and bought a solution accordingly.   So, tech supply chain took a hit because many companies are doing this, but it will slowly rebound.   The large companies have the resources to deal with this, but I'd worry about mid-sized businesses.  Just my experiences...

For recent college grads, I'm not sure what I'd say.  Yes it is disappointing to have to face this virus, but you've got to keep learning new things and skills.   They are young and they've got time on their side.   Possibly the answer for some is to pursue an advanced degree, or learn new skills that can be parlayed with their degrees.   Whatever they decide it isn't going to be easy for them or the rest of us.

As, always JMO.   Y'all be safe out there!

TPM posted:

Sorry I left out the BP! 

Broward here. How are things up there.

Quiet. Fields were “closed” this week. I know the parks and rec guy so we can still go to the cage and hit if my son doesn’t feel like hitting in the garage. Also have a mound in the backyard, so my son has invited a couple pitchers from his team to come throw pens this weekend. 
As far as the Covid, we only have 42 cases right now. Most of the county has been following the rules and even staying home for weeks now. The boating community, not so much. It should be a lot easier for us to slow the spread than it will be for Broward. 
How about down there? You guys seem to be doing better than Miami

fenwaysouth posted:

cabbagedad,

  I don't see any professional sports in 2020.    I know nobody wants to hear that.   I love sports as much as the next person.  But this virus brought us all back to the base of Maslow's hierarchy of needs...safety.   And frankly, that is where we need to be at this time.   Our government leaders got a very quick dose of reality.   It took a while, but they are on it and owning it now.   They have a tough job, and we've got to help the cause by staying home until the fridge is empty.

 

Had to look up Maslow's hierarchy to refresh memory - Safety is not defined solely by health but also by personal security, employment, and property.  10m currently unemployed, many more on the way, and potentially looking a financial ruin.  Glad there is fiscal help on the way for them.   

JMO - there will be professional sports and in the not too distant future.   As we go up the J curve its hard to see the other side but NYC/NY will be heading down the other side in a few weeks, the rest of the country not far behind that. 

Also, we have to help out our communities by spending if you can afford IMO.  Order take out, curbside pickups whatever you can do to help your community if you have the means.  

We have 1598 cases and 22 deaths in Broward.  It surged after spring break, which should have never happened.  Snowbirds went home as well as Canadians where I am.  Miami has almost 3000 cases but 11 deaths. Palm Beach has now surpassed Broward in deaths.  

Be careful. I have a theory that much more of us have been exposed than we know, just like any virus. 

Unfortunately, President Trump turned the word "flu" into a political firestorm. But please, how about a dose of reality? How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 today? 278,458? What's the current estimate for U.S. population? 330,536,464? How many hospital beds do we have in the country? Probably not enough. It's not cost effective.

Estimates of flu hospitalizations for every year since 2010 far exceed the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases thus far. Now that doesn't mean I don't think COVID-19 isn't serious or less deadly than the flu; it just means we don't have enough data yet. Do I think COVID-19 numbers will trump (not intended as a pun) the flu number this year? Probably. But since we have destroyed the economy perhaps not. Of course only time (and data) will tell.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

The estimated range of flu deaths this season (since October 1st and through March 28) is 24,000 - 63,000. This number will certainly end up being less as we progress through the season for the simple reason being the same deaths that would normally be attributed to the flu will test positive for COVID-19. Which virus do you think will be listed on the death certificate as a contributor for the death?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/...season-estimates.htm

So where were the CNN stories of flu deaths for this year's flu season? And all the past years? Reality is we lose thousands of citizens every year to this virus. And you know what? That's not going to change anytime soon. So when you hear the story about the young and otherwise healthy adult who just died of COVID-19 what do you think is the purpose of that story? Do you anyone with the same profile has also died of the flu? Of course! Where's that news story?

Do you think COVID-19 will be any different? Will it end up being like the flu? Very possible although SARS-1 doesn't seem to have gone that route.

So in the future when sports are back in full swing (who knows when that will be) will I give pause and think about whether the person next to me may have COVID-19? Probably about as much as I've thought about the possibility of people having the flu at every sporting event I've ever attended.

That's reality.

This may swim against the tide, but I'm not sure what the lesson of having a redo year really is. Don't get me wrong, I feel for all those graduating Seniors that won't get their "last time" in HS or College (sports, arts, etc.). What about those doctoral level grad school students - 7+ years of "college & grad school" and nothing. Some facing the prospect of working in a hospital. Still why do we single out athletes and let them have another "last time"? That will not necessarily translate further in life as I'm sure many can attest.

Life will not be the same for quite a while - will you go to a restaurant, a ball game, a concert, etc. and not want more space between you and the next person? In the end, it's about trust - do you trust that someone who is sick will self isolate? How many have been in an office, at a game, etc. listening to someone sneeze, sniffle, cough, etc.  With this virus you may not know you have it - it's very scary indeed. There was a story a couple weeks ago about a guy sneezing without covering his mouth, getting called out for it, and then threatening the person who called him out with a gun. Sorry - that's just nuts, but that's what we have to worry about when/if we do the same thing?!

Had to chuckle a bit at Fenway's make or break some marriages - it's so true - I remember what we went through when I started work at home 12+ years ago - great because I could easily sneak off to baseball, football, basketball with the boys, but bad because the guilt of sneaking off meant I worked longer hours and really never "left the office" which wasn't good for home life. It took a long time to fix and for me to figure out the correct work/life balance. The other side of the stay home will be the possible baby boom in 9 months, just hope it's not going to be a single parent boom.

Everyone stay safe - do the right thing. Find your own balance. Think of and thank those that are on front lines of this. You may not agree with every decision made, but assume good intent.

TPM posted:

We have 1598 cases and 22 deaths in Broward.  It surged after spring break, which should have never happened.  Snowbirds went home as well as Canadians where I am.  Miami has almost 3000 cases but 11 deaths. Palm Beach has now surpassed Broward in deaths.  

Be careful. I have a theory that much more of us have been exposed than we know, just like any virus. 

I agree. The number of infected has to be multiples of the reported numbers. If it is true, the country will recover much quicker. Hopefully, some of these experimental treatments will provide some relief to those suffering with more severe symptoms

Feb. 27:  https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/27...-outbrain/index.html

Feb. 21:  https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/21...eaths-105/index.html

Jan. 30:  https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30...cted-trnd/index.html

We normally do nothing to mitigate the flu, except for advising handwashing; also, people get vaccinated.  With coronavirus, most places are trying social distancing, and that has brought the number down.  If it's below 100,000 that will be a great triumph.  I hope that naysayers won't conclude that means we shouldn't have taken all the measures that we have, it is exactly the opposite.

Great resource someone just sent me which estimates peak for each state and the country as well as Bed and Ventilator needs.  Still personally analyzing but thought people would find interesting.  

http://covid19.healthdata.org/

NY State is 5 days from the peak and says it needs 10k ventilators in total.  This is wildly different than earlier projects.  For me, this site is worth watching at a min.

For our Florida posters, you are a month away still.   CT is 11 days away.  I think some of this might explain why many of us have different views on severity and duration.  Here is tri-state we've been under the assault of Covid-19 for a month and seeing estimates of peaks in 5-10 days is a green shoot.   In CT HS ends now on June 30th with peak mid-April - that is why I am optimistic "normalcy" (new normal)  is close to returning - up here.

ABSORBER posted:

Unfortunately, President Trump turned the word "flu" into a political firestorm. But please, how about a dose of reality? How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 today? 278,458? What's the current estimate for U.S. population? 330,536,464? How many hospital beds do we have in the country? Probably not enough. It's not cost effective.

Estimates of flu hospitalizations for every year since 2010 far exceed the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases thus far. Now that doesn't mean I don't think COVID-19 isn't serious or less deadly than the flu; it just means we don't have enough data yet. Do I think COVID-19 numbers will trump (not intended as a pun) the flu number this year? Probably. But since we have destroyed the economy perhaps not. Of course only time (and data) will tell.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

The estimated range of flu deaths this season (since October 1st and through March 28) is 24,000 - 63,000. This number will certainly end up being less as we progress through the season for the simple reason being the same deaths that would normally be attributed to the flu will test positive for COVID-19. Which virus do you think will be listed on the death certificate as a contributor for the death?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/...season-estimates.htm

So where were the CNN stories of flu deaths for this year's flu season? And all the past years? Reality is we lose thousands of citizens every year to this virus. And you know what? That's not going to change anytime soon. So when you hear the story about the young and otherwise healthy adult who just died of COVID-19 what do you think is the purpose of that story? Do you anyone with the same profile has also died of the flu? Of course! Where's that news story?

Do you think COVID-19 will be any different? Will it end up being like the flu? Very possible although SARS-1 doesn't seem to have gone that route.

So in the future when sports are back in full swing (who knows when that will be) will I give pause and think about whether the person next to me may have COVID-19? Probably about as much as I've thought about the possibility of people having the flu at every sporting event I've ever attended.

That's reality.

People don't die from COVID19, they die from complications, usually being pneumonia, which is what is listed on the death certificate.  It's a highly contagious respitory disease, no vaccine like other strains, I know that you know that.

I know of elderly adults that have died from pneumonia caused by influenza A, B, C. I know of not one healthy adult who ever died from those strains of influenza. Not one.

I saw a story on CNN last night, heartbreaking. A healthy 42 year old healthy male with no pre existing conditions died from complications from this virus. What he went through described by his wife is unbelievable. More and more normally healthy adults and children have the virus. Let's not assume all who are dying are elderly or those with pre-existing conditions. 

And yes, I will think about who I am sitting next to when I attend any event, or standing in a line at the grocery store.

fenwaysouth posted:

cabbagedad,

 I'm used to working at home when I'm not on an airplane going to meet my customers.   This is not a huge adjustment for me, but I know it is for a lot of people and their spouses.   I've heard some funny and not so funny stories about husband and wife working out of their homes with younger kids.   It is tough.   I used to dread working out of my house when my 3 sons were younger...it was never quiet.   

 

 

My wife had worked from home for the last several years (probably about 3 days a week). We had her set up in the kitchen with access for her phone, computer, porch nearby for nice air etc. But now her "space" during the day (usually to an empty house other than cats) has become community, making it harder for her.  We gravitate to the kitchen when we are tired of OUR workspaces (my classroom is the dining room, my college sophomore's school learning location is in the basement and my ballplayer son's "workspace" is in the garage). Yeah, Zoom was novel at first, but I too am ready to move on, trying to be patient. I look for silver linings.. it sure is more comfortable wearing slippers when I teach.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/...dies-of-coronavirus/

For those who haven't, the Wikipedia article on the pandemic of 1918 - which burned through the world with little intervention - is interesting.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wik...#CITEREFBillings1997

Also, when testing results are showing 20% positives it means we don't have a clue on the spread through the population. When positive results get to South Korea's level (about 1%), then we have a handle.

Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

Great resource someone just sent me which estimates peak for each state and the country as well as Bed and Ventilator needs.  Still personally analyzing but thought people would find interesting.  

http://covid19.healthdata.org/

NY State is 5 days from the peak and says it needs 10k ventilators in total.  This is wildly different than earlier projects.  For me, this site is worth watching at a min.

For our Florida posters, you are a month away still.   CT is 11 days away.  I think some of this might explain why many of us have different views on severity and duration.  Here is tri-state we've been under the assault of Covid-19 for a month and seeing estimates of peaks in 5-10 days is a green shoot.   In CT HS ends now on June 30th with peak mid-April - that is why I am optimistic "normalcy" (new normal)  is close to returning - up here.

Thanks. Received this last night from another webster.

anotherparent posted:

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/...dies-of-coronavirus/

Wow.   Sad. Shocking. Tragic.

IMO a lot of the fear came from the medical community, and rightfully so, because the virus was so new they literally don’t know what to do with patients. There are no protocols, no true treatment plans.  We hear day after day about different options that doctors have tried that show promise but that’s not how medicine usually works. Doctors are not supposed to be “creative” with medications. You are just as likely to give a medication that tanks a patient as saves them.  So, again JMO, it will never be as bad as it is this time. Our scientists and medical community will have time to evaluate data and develop a plan.  FWIW, I have a longtime friend who works in the ER in Seattle area where Covid tore through the asst living home.  She’s a baseball (pitcher) mom and said this “The disease is some new pitch that rises when it should sink and throws 97, we’re just throwing our bat at it hoping to make contact”.  Stay safe everyone. Do what the experts tell us and, as maddening as they may be, enjoy having your family around you. 

TPM posted:

People don't die from COVID19, they die from complications, usually being pneumonia, which is what is listed on the death certificate.  It's a highly contagious respitory disease, no vaccine like other strains, I know that you know that.

 

I know of elderly adults that have died from pneumonia caused by influenza A, B, C. I know of not one healthy adult who ever died from those strains of influenza. Not one.

I saw a story on CNN last night, heartbreaking. A healthy 42 year old healthy male with no pre existing conditions died from complications from this virus. What he went through described by his wife is unbelievable. More and more normally healthy adults and children have the virus. Let's not assume all who are dying are elderly or those with pre-existing conditions. 

And yes, I will think about who I am sitting next to when I attend any event, or standing in a line at the grocery store.

People die of P&I, and yes, if they tested positive for a flu strain they are counted as a flu death. Currently, this number is way down because of COVID-19. It's going to be difficult to differentiate especially if they test for both viruses.

Again, there are plenty of otherwise healthy adults and children who die due to complications as a result of having the flu. Sometimes these stories appear locally but almost never nationally. These stories lead to mass hysteria but also serve to reinforce the stay-at-home message, especially to young, healthy people. Don't be confused by the motive.

You may not know of a single healthy adult dying from the flu yet it is estimated between 24,000 and 63,000 have died of the flu between October 1 and March 28. Using the low estimate that's a little more than 4000 per month. I would estimate ~ 10,000 since COVID-19's been in this country. That exceeds the count of COVID-19 deaths thus far but of course that's because COVID-19 has been ramping up and will certainly exceed that average. I can guarantee plenty of healthy folks are part of that 24,000. There are 162 child-deaths during that period:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

I don't know a single person who's died of COVID-19, healthy or otherwise. That doesn't mean they don't, per your argument.

And I am glad more people sitting next to me in the future will be wondering whether I have a virus; maybe they will wash their hands.

You're missing the point about flu.  There is a flu vaccine every year.  Some years more effective than others, but there is a vaccine.  People choose to take it, or not, that's on them.  They rarely publish numbers of how many people who died of the flu did or didn't have a shot, but my impression is that a large percentage did NOT have a shot.

There is no vaccine for coronavirus.  High-risk people can't choose to be vaccinated.

JCG posted:

anotherparent posted:

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/...dies-of-coronavirus/

Wow.   Sad. Shocking. Tragic.

Absolutely...I'm nearby and can tell you this hit the local baseball community like a ton of bricks.  No more groups of friends sneaking onto the fields to workout.

anotherparent posted:

You're missing the point about flu.  There is a flu vaccine every year.  Some years more effective than others, but there is a vaccine.  People choose to take it, or not, that's on them.  They rarely publish numbers of how many people who died of the flu did or didn't have a shot, but my impression is that a large percentage did NOT have a shot.

There is no vaccine for coronavirus.  High-risk people can't choose to be vaccinated.

The vaccine usually includes a few strains of various types of flu virus--totally a best guess as to what's going to be most prevalent for the prescribed year. Its not always correct. Folks 65+ are always at risk; it's one of the reasons pneumonia vaccinations are prescribed for that age group. It sounds as though they should be giving those out to more people, especially those who are high risk. But like the flu vaccine, different versions of the pneumonia vaccine handle between 13 and 23 variants of pneumonia-causing bacteria. They don't handle everything. And, as you suggested, not everyone actually takes them.

I am an optimist and so, I think we will turn the corner relatively soon.  I am teaching in another state and in our digital department meeting yesterday, most of the teachers in my department believe we will not go back to school this year.  I think we will be back though won't say when  

I know so many of the members here live in areas that are hotspots.  I live in Illinois and we have 31 cases in my county with zero deaths.  This morning, the wife and I drove 45 minutes to a vet clinic to get some medicine for one of our horses.  Our vet was out of this particular stuff.  That county doesn't have a case of the virus at all.  The vet there commented that the people he deals with are furious that they have to stay in when they have not had a case.  In fact, the are several counties in that area that do not have a case of the virus.  

I believe that with our national push to develop a vaccine and better treatments, we will overcome this.  On another website, I have two "Positive Threads" going.  That would be the only two positive threads in a huge number of negative threads put up daily.  

Stay safe!

I saw a funny tweet Twitter thought was too offensive to keep up. I thought it was good gallows humor ...

The husband and wife have been confined together every hour, every day for two weeks. “Mary is knitting her husband a scarf.” It was shaped like a noose.

If the economy shuts down for three months or more we’re going to have more problems than the virus. 40% of Americans can’t handle a $1000 surprise bill without pulling out a credit card.

I was looking at each state’s unemployment compensation. It doesn’t pay the bills for most people. It only blunts the pain. The government can’t keep handing out corona virus compensation month after month. What happens when millions of people can’t pay the mortgage/rent, utilities and eat? Then there’s the domino effect that ultimately falls on the banks and we’re back to 2008, only worse. 

I’m not saying get your tail out the door and back to work right now. But NYC does not represent the situation across the country. Return to work can start in waves with younger, healthier people. At risk people (elderly, sick) will have to be more isolated. 

As far as sports go in the big picture they’re secondary. Anything below pro sports will likely be the last thing to resume.

I would hate to be an elderly person in assisted living. These people are sitting in their rooms as targets. They can’t roam around the building. They have to come face to face with med techs. They have to receive food at their door. Someone has to come in to clean and change the sheets. The help goes in and out of the facility’s every day. Delivery people come and go every day. The elderly are sitting ducks.

Here is one analysis of the "quarentine the elderly" solution. I welcome responses to the issues raised in the article.

https://www.washingtonpost.com...-elderly-vulnerable/

I agree.  Plus, there are all the under-65s who have some kind of risk factor, starting with weight.

It seems that if you're going to have barracks, it would be more efficient to put all the people without risk factors into barracks so that they all get the virus, hopefully with fewer complications, and then you can let them out again when they are no longer contagious, so that they can be in the workforce.  I think that's what Boris Johnson had in mind, but it turned out he was pretty spectacularly wrong.

I read that the CDC has just started antibody testing, and that should bring a certain amount of clarity, once they get it going.

As always, excellent information from this community. My 2021’s team is mostly seniors, so it sucks they lost the season, but it was not meant to be. He and his teammates are handling it very well.

Another aspect to all of this will be the impact on higher ed. We are looking at liberal arts colleges on the west coast. They are extremely expensive, and middle class families rely on financial aid and student loans. Lots to think about.

For those who believe the country needs to shelter in place until this is over no matter how long it takes ... Can we afford to have 30-40% of the country become destitute? 

A friend asked me what would occur if this happened. I asked him if he has a gun to protect his residence, family and food.

Well, which one of your parents shall be sacrificed? Or, pick a son, a wife, a cousin  - maybe she wont mind. 

In all my readings about the Great Depression (with analogous unemployment rates and a decade of destitution), I dont recall the solution offered was sacrifice grandma.

There are advances every day by scientists, etc. California just announced, for example, a serology test which will show who is immune (assuming immunity actually is conferred). 

The argument of who to sacrifice just doesn’t make sense.  How many at risk people die from the flu?  By not shutting down during flu season are we choosing to sacrifice grandma?  They are saying 80% will get this.  It’s just spreading out when they get it.

People keep bringing up the flu - a disease for which we have vaccines (albeit imperfectly matched each year), many decades of circulation within populations (with residual imperfect immunity),  that is clearly seasonal, which DOESN'T OVERWHELM A NATIONS HEALTH CARE SYSTEM, with a mortality rate of .1%, and well understood transmissions.

Here we have a species jumping virus entering a virgin population. All within three months +/-, which has overwhelmed health care systems in multiple developed countries, with a mortality rate apparently magnitudes more than the flu.

Riddle me this: which other disease has overwhelmed multiple countries HCS? 

And, yes, because we know the extreme mortality rates amongst 65+ and those with comorbidities, grandma will indeed be sacrificed (as well as your diabetic overweight 45 year old cousin). The question is will she be sacrificed as a last resort, or will she be sacrificed so we can make our rent and car payments?

There are published research papers demonstrating that locales which took strong measures during the 1918 pandemic not only had lower mortality rates, but also had much stronger economies in the future when compared to locales which allowed the virus to run free.

My grandparents told me long stories about their experiences in the great depression (heck, Bubbie used to take the restaurant crackers home in her purse); for them it lasted a decade, made them lose their livelihood and become virtual beggars.

Here, less then a month into this, we have lost patience and believe that our current state of affairs is all we can handle.

A new meaning to American exceptionalism.

PS, herd immunity will kick in long before 80% are infected with a virus with this infectious rate.

Goosegg posted:

Well, which one of your parents shall be sacrificed? Or, pick a son, a wife, a cousin  - maybe she wont mind. 

In all my readings about the Great Depression (with analogous unemployment rates and a decade of destitution), I dont recall the solution offered was sacrifice grandma.

There are advances every day by scientists, etc. California just announced, for example, a serology test which will show who is immune (assuming immunity actually is conferred). 

 

 I’m going to respond with a statement almost as ludicrous as yours ...

When are we going to ban cars? Six million people in the United States die each year in car accidents The carnage must stop. 

In the 1970s there were 25 fatalities per 100,000 people in the US.  Then they changed the laws, and now there are 11 per 100,000.  Taking measures saves lives.

There is a FDA approved serology test for the novel coronavirus. There are few countermeasures being assessed via the compassionate use route including convalescent serum. We need to buy more time for these counter measures  to be proven safe and efficacious for general public. Quniacrine drugs show promise but there is not sufficient data to prove it can work with the most susceptible to the novel coronavirus. Shelter in place is the only method we can rely on to save the scare healthcare resources until manufacturing can catch up. Btw, flu does kill healthy people as with other infections, some people are just susceptible and we do not always know why. Stay safe everyone and let's continue to support each other. I can't tell you how much motivation and energy it gives me when I see and hear people going out of their way during this crisis to help other. 

Hi I am hijacking my son’s nom de plum to respond after he showed me this thread. I am a physician and we in Illinois and have been dealing with covid19 cases for almost a month.  There is no way to tell if a person young or old will have a mild or severe disease. We have had a infant die of covid19 as well as people in their 30s. Also approximately 20 percent are asymptomatic and can shed the virus without knowing that they are infected. As healthcare workers we don’t have enough test kits or PPE or N95 masks available to protect ourselves when we are taking care of sick patients. The hospitals are going to get overwhelmed quickly and won’t have enough ventilators to take care of the really sick patients who need them to survive. The flattening of the curve will help us take care of the really sick patients so that they can survive this pandemic. Hopefully an antibody test will be available soon to determine who has immunity so that can return to a normal life and not infect other people. We are all learning as we go along! Sorry for the lengthy post

Really unemployment is bad but most people that lose their jobs now will get it back after the crisis is over.

There will be a recession but economy will grow fast again after this is over. 

I think we will have about 10% recession this year and a positive economy growth again next year. That is bad but can  be overcome and many of the businesses who go broke will be relaunched after this is over.

Recession is never permanent, most of the crisis of economy only last 1-3 years and I think this one won't be different.

My prediction is even if we have a 4 month shutdown economy will crash hard but in 3-5 years it will be at the level of december 2019 again. 

And also even if people cant pay their bills anymore I can't see them all losing their home as the landlords won't gain anything by throwing people out as there are no other people who can pay rent to them.

They will need to find an agreement on how tenants can only pay part of the rent now and the rest later if they want to see money at all.

Okay, I'll bite as well.  We need to do what we are doing now, but it can't stick around until there is a vaccine.  Social unrest will eventually happen if we continue indefinitely as we are.  Personally, I believe in a month, things will slowly move towards normal until the Fall happens. Once that hits, the second wave will come, and then we should be ready.  BTW, I'm somewhat of an optimist on this.

I believe at some point towards the end of April the current situation will be extended to May 15 and then May 30. On May 15 it will be announced thenUS is going back to work on June 1 with stated precautions. It won’t be everywhere. It will be with caution. It won’t be business an usual and back to normal life. But it will be a significant start. Pro baseball might have a short preseason with the season starting later in June. But amateur/youth sports will be off the table until fall. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

If you hit the down arrow on the green bar you can select your state,

I think companies need to do everything to allow work being done under safe circumstances.

Companies that can be done in home office need to improve their organisation for home office so this becomes more efficient (communication lines etc).

Stuff like software development, finance stuff and so on could be done just as well from home.

And producing industries need to find protective clothes, masks and stuff like this to allow a safe production.

I don't think we will see a total opening the next 2-3 months but they will try to create more opportunities to work safely in that crisis.

Free time and travel will still be restricted to companies that can prove they can provide safe circumstances will be allowed to open again.

Business meetings, costumer meetings will be shifted to video conference and work done more effectively from home or under special preparation in companies.

But a more relaxed social distancing, face masks and so on will stay for months. That way you can prevent too much spreading but still allow economy to not totally crash

A pretty good article regarding resuming of sports in this reality...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/spor...akkt?ocid=spartandhp

 … early Fall at the earliest - absolute best case scenario.  Requires all of us to seriously stop the notion of trying to compare this to "just another flu" and car accidents.

Another piece has the peak use of hospital resources hitting 37 states during the last two weeks in April with another ten states seeing peak between May 1 and May 22.  Very difficult two months in front of us.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/heal...2VyT?ocid=spartandhp

Goosegg posted:

People keep bringing up the flu - a disease for which we have vaccines (albeit imperfectly matched each year), many decades of circulation within populations (with residual imperfect immunity),  that is clearly seasonal, which DOESN'T OVERWHELM A NATIONS HEALTH CARE SYSTEM, with a mortality rate of .1%, and well understood transmissions.

Here we have a species jumping virus entering a virgin population. All within three months +/-, which has overwhelmed health care systems in multiple developed countries, with a mortality rate apparently magnitudes more than the flu.

Riddle me this: which other disease has overwhelmed multiple countries HCS? 

And, yes, because we know the extreme mortality rates amongst 65+ and those with comorbidities, grandma will indeed be sacrificed (as well as your diabetic overweight 45 year old cousin). The question is will she be sacrificed as a last resort, or will she be sacrificed so we can make our rent and car payments?

There are published research papers demonstrating that locales which took strong measures during the 1918 pandemic not only had lower mortality rates, but also had much stronger economies in the future when compared to locales which allowed the virus to run free.

My grandparents told me long stories about their experiences in the great depression (heck, Bubbie used to take the restaurant crackers home in her purse); for them it lasted a decade, made them lose their livelihood and become virtual beggars.

Here, less then a month into this, we have lost patience and believe that our current state of affairs is all we can handle.

A new meaning to American exceptionalism.

PS, herd immunity will kick in long before 80% are infected with a virus with this infectious rate.

I bring up the flu simply to demonstrate it kills tens of thousands in the U.S. every year and people don't seem to mind or care. Yet when a single otherwise healthy person dies of COVID-19 it makes national news.

AND we have vaccines AND it's seasonal AND it kills both young and old. I'm not comparing the two viruses but rather making an attempt to put a little perspective into people's forgetful minds.

The title of this post includes "Time to Face Reality." The fact the flu has killed between 24,000 and 63,000 in this country since 10/1/2019 seems to have been forgotten or is treated as meaningless. The COVID-19 death count has not even hit the flu's two-month average death count (yet) for the low end of the estimate (24,000). So what if grandma dies of the flu but if she dies of COVID-19 it is the country's fault. We are deemed irresponsible and insensitive because we are not treating this seriously. So much so hundreds of thousands of businesses in this country will cease to exist. Someone posted "most people that lose their jobs now will get it back after the crisis is over." Not sure how this is possible when those jobs won't exist.

Is a shutdown necessary? Of course, locally, as hotspots arise. We simply cannot continue to remain shutdown indefinitely.  And to criticize the governor of Montana for not issuing a stay-at-home order? Please! Let's just kill businesses in Montana because hospitals are overwhelmed in NYC.

And why is it government's fault there aren't enough hospital beds or ventilators? As our population has grown these counts have been reduced dramatically. Why? Because health care is so much better today? Perhaps a bit. But really it's because health care is a business. These same businesses are now complaining the government is not doing enough. That the federal government was unprepared and is now responsible for this crisis.

The reality is it's nobody's fault. Not even China's!

My year in Review:

Jan: Constitutional Lawyer

Feb 1 - 15: Constitutional Lawyer

Feb 16 - 29: Epidemiologist/Infectious Disease Expert

Mar 1 - 15: Epidemiologist/Infectious Disease Expert, Prepper/Hoarder

Mar 16 - 31: Biostatistics Modeler/Social Bayesian Analyst, NCAA Compliance Officer

Apr 1 - current: Keynesian Economist, Geopoliticist, Supply Chain Expert

Man I’m worn out. 

RJM posted:

Goosegg posted:

Well, which one of your parents shall be sacrificed? Or, pick a son, a wife, a cousin  - maybe she wont mind. 

In all my readings about the Great Depression (with analogous unemployment rates and a decade of destitution), I dont recall the solution offered was sacrifice grandma.

There are advances every day by scientists, etc. California just announced, for example, a serology test which will show who is immune (assuming immunity actually is conferred). 

 

 I’m going to respond with a statement almost as ludicrous as yours ...

When are we going to ban cars? Six million people in the United States die each year in car accidents The carnage must stop. 

For those wondering about the actual number of motor vehicle related fatalities, in 2018 it was 36,560.  That number includes motorcycles, pedestrians and bicyclists.

https://www.iihs.org/topics/fa...etail/state-by-state

baseballmom posted:

 These same businesses are now complaining the government is not doing enough. That the federal government was unprepared and is now responsible for this crisis.

We were unprepared for the bombing of Pearl Harbor, too! But you didn't hear our President suggest, " Well, if any States want to manufacture a bomber, that's up to them." 

 But this Dude wants to call himself a "War-time President"? 

Think about it!

I saw a good on twitter the other day. Ordinary hard working Americans were supposed to have saved enough to get them through this crises, but big-time multi billion dollar corporations are complaining they are going broke and can't pay their employees.

What's the matter, they couldnt save for a rainy day?

The federal government WAS unprepared!

Edit:  FWIW, Montana has 281 confirmed cases 6 deaths.

TPM posted:

baseballmom posted:

 These same businesses are now complaining the government is not doing enough. That the federal government was unprepared and is now responsible for this crisis.

We were unprepared for the bombing of Pearl Harbor, too! But you didn't hear our President suggest, " Well, if any States want to manufacture a bomber, that's up to them." 

 But this Dude wants to call himself a "War-time President"? 

Think about it!

I saw a good on twitter the other day. Ordinary hard working Americans were supposed to have saved enough to get them through this crises, but big-time multi billion dollar corporations are complaining they are going broke and can't pay their employees.

What's the matter, they couldnt save for a rainy day?

The federal government WAS unprepared!

Edit:  FWIW, Montana has 281 confirmed cases 6 deaths.

Can both ya’ll delete your posts?It’s nice to have a place to share opinions without the political hate. 

It’s clear the board is no longer monitored for political posts. 

TPM posted:

I saw a good on twitter the other day. Ordinary hard working Americans were supposed to have saved enough to get them through this crises, but big-time multi billion dollar corporations are complaining they are going broke and can't pay their employees.

What's the matter, they couldnt save for a rainy day?

The federal government WAS unprepared!

Edit:  FWIW, Montana has 281 confirmed cases 6 deaths.

Huh? Billion $ companies not being able to pay their employees == government being unprepared?

Yeah, you are right. 6 deaths and 281 cases in a very sparsely populated state; better shut it down!!!

Montana has those numbers with social isolation. They are projected to worsen considerably over the next 3 weeks with social isolation. Even with mitigation, MT. Is projected to have a shortage of ventilators for the ICU patients.

Every credible doctor with expertise concludes the situation will be so much worse and so much longer without following the guidance of Dr Fauci and Dr Birks. 

As Dr Fauci recently noted, there is rhetoric and medical reality and it is important for the public to appreciate the difference. 

Go44dad posted:

TPM posted:

baseballmom posted:

 These same businesses are now complaining the government is not doing enough. That the federal government was unprepared and is now responsible for this crisis.

We were unprepared for the bombing of Pearl Harbor, too! But you didn't hear our President suggest, " Well, if any States want to manufacture a bomber, that's up to them." 

 But this Dude wants to call himself a "War-time President"? 

Think about it!

I saw a good on twitter the other day. Ordinary hard working Americans were supposed to have saved enough to get them through this crises, but big-time multi billion dollar corporations are complaining they are going broke and can't pay their employees.

What's the matter, they couldnt save for a rainy day?

The federal government WAS unprepared!

Edit:  FWIW, Montana has 281 confirmed cases 6 deaths.

Can both ya’ll delete your posts?It’s nice to have a place to share opinions without the political hate. 

It’s clear the board is no longer monitored for political posts. 

If you report a post, it will be evaluated and perhaps deleted. The board is still monitored.

Edit to add:  this board belongs to all of us. We all have the responsibility of monitoring posts. Use the report link. 

cabbagedad posted:

A pretty good article regarding resuming of sports in this reality...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/spor...akkt?ocid=spartandhp

 … early Fall at the earliest - absolute best case scenario.  Requires all of us to seriously stop the notion of trying to compare this to "just another flu" and car accidents.

Another piece has the peak use of hospital resources hitting 37 states during the last two weeks in April with another ten states seeing peak between May 1 and May 22.  Very difficult two months in front of us.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/heal...2VyT?ocid=spartandhp

Cabbagedad - the statistics used in your second article are from a site I posted about yesterday and RJM later posted too.  Is from healthdata.org.  If NY State is to peak in 4-5 days and the US in next 10-11 days things will be on the margin getting better not worse very soon.  Yes, next week or two will be tougher.  Also, look at the site -the projections, they are way off as it relates to resources needs, beds, ICU beds etc. In other words, things are coming in much lower than original projections

There will be a lot of work to do to get things heading back in the right direction. For my work I am confident we will not go 100% fully back for a month or two but Sports in some form will come back sooner than early fall.  Heck, early fall is more of a concern is Covid comes back....

NY State stats today from Gov Cuomo - the fewest number of new hospitalizations in over 2 weeks, Now below 600 new hospitalizations, down from 1100 the day before and from 1400 the day before, deaths down (one day only), Apex this week.  We are close to getting through the apex.   I know thinking positive won't bring things back faster but worst-case scenarios are NOT occurring at the moment and don't seem in the cards.  

I don’t know how anyone things the country can sit still for several months then go back to work. A lot of jobs will seize to exist within three months. The government can’t pay people’s bills every month. The first month they don’t 40%** of the country can’t support themselves. I don’t think people understand how many small businesses operate month to month. 

Do people understand how big the hospitality and travel industry is along with connected businesses? These companies are not going to open up the first day like it’s a New Hears celebration. 

 A lot of companies getting government help won’t be able to retain their employees. First they have to cover their fixed costs.

I expect to lose half my clients (aka half my income) if this goes on for more than two months. Fortunately, I’m financially secure. What about people who aren’t. My clients (small business) won’t be when they shut down.

i just don’t understand how anyone can think everything will be fine in a few months.

** 40% of people would have to use a credit card to handle a $1000 surprise bill.

Go44dad, done, out of respect for you. You are a valued member of this community, and help lend a much appreciated sense of humor on occasion to keep things light. 

Now, what one may interpret as "political hate", I meant as utter disgust for bombastic self- agrandisement (if that's even a word?) speech & behavior. I believe this is a Pearl Harbor moment that requires a Roosevelt like response. So, the best we've got is Dr's. Fauci & Birx guidance. And the real foot soldiers of the medical professions, whom we all should praise & thank. 

Stay safe, folks!

edit: word arrangement

baseballmom posted:

Go44dad, done, out of respect for you. You are a valued member of this community, and help lend a much appreciated sense of humor on occasion to keep things light. 

Now, what one may interpret as "political hate", I meant as utter disgust for bombastic self-agrandisement speech & behavior. (if that's even a word?) I believe this is a Pearl Harbor moment that requires a Roosevelt like response. So, the best we've got is Dr Fauci & Birx guidance. And the real foot soldiers of the medical professions, whom we all should praise & thank. 

Stay safe, folks!

Yes Paula, “behavior” is a word. 

RJM posted:

I don’t know how anyone things the country can sit still for several months then go back to work. A lot of jobs will seize to exist within three months. The government can’t pay people’s bills every month. The first month they don’t 40%** of the country can’t support themselves. I don’t think people understand how many small businesses operate month to month. 

Do people understand how big the hospitality and travel industry is along with connected businesses? These companies are not going to open up the first day like it’s a New Hears celebration. 

 A ,or of companies getting government help won’t be able to retain their employees. First they have to cover their fixed costs.

I expect to lose half my clients (aka half my income) if this goes on for more than two months. Fortunately, I’m financially secure. What about people who aren’t. My clients (small business) won’t be when they shut down.

i just don’t understand how anyone can think everything will be fine in a few months.

** 40% of people would have to use a credit card to handle a $1000 surprise bill.

People most definitely will not be fine in a few months.  Wrecking the economy sucks and will harm millions for years. 

We have a run away virus even with the shutdown.  I have seen a lot of people compare this to H1N1 in 2009 and say things like "12,500 people died and we didn't shut down the country.  For perspective:

1st H1N1 death was 4/27/2009

1 year later, April of 2010 we had an estimated 60 million infections and 12,500 dead.

1st Covid-19 death was 2/29/2020

On Tuesday 4/7/2020 we will eclipse the 12,500 deaths point after 2 months and 1 week.  That is with these drastic economy killing efforts to slow the spread which were not taken during H1N1.

Wrecking the economy sucks and will harm millions of people for years. There is no easy answer but just opening everything up and letting this thing "run it's course" is no bargain either.  There is no right answer and all outcomes will have some significant degree of death and economic ruin.  Anyone pretending to have the perfect answer is a fool, we are all simply feeling our way through this disaster.

Plus, H1N1 was an influenza virus, and there was a vaccine being given by October 2009.  Also, elderly people had some immunity to it, unlike now.  The large majority of deaths with H1N1 came in the second wave in November-December 2009, after they had started giving the vaccine.

We must hope that all of the medical scientific minds in the world will find ways to help with this.

Thanks, adbo!

baseballmom posted:

Thanks, adbo!

😜

anotherparent posted:

Plus, H1N1 was an influenza virus, and there was a vaccine being given by October 2009.  Also, elderly people had some immunity to it, unlike now.  The large majority of deaths with H1N1 came in the second wave in November-December 2009, after they had started giving the vaccine.

We must hope that all of the medical scientific minds in the world will find ways to help with this.

Estimates for H1N1 through 2018 (2009 - 2018) are 75,000 deaths in the U.S.; even with a vaccine, viruses don't simply go away.

22and25 posted:

 There is no easy answer but just opening everything up and letting this thing "run it's course" is no bargain either. 

But it is going to "run it's course". The only thing we can control is how quickly it does it. Other's arguing do we sacrifice grandma and grandpa to go back to work, they are going to get it, not if, when. Pandora's box has been opened.

*Pandora opened a jar left in her care containing sickness, death and many other unspecified evils which were then released into the world.

It will run its first course here in early spring, the spread will slow in the summer enough for a return some normalcy in a month to month and a half as the apex is here in some states and close in others.   A vaccine is a full year+ away but there is a massive effort at identifying therapeutics to manage the virus.  Great article on this in WSJ today, Scott Gottlieb.  That combined with antibody testing will enable us to continue to be out in the world, working and yes sports (with some potential modifications on attendance etc) and will bridge the gap to the vaccine.  That is my opinion.   

SomeBaseballDad posted:

22and25 posted:

 There is no easy answer but just opening everything up and letting this thing "run it's course" is no bargain either. 

But it is going to "run it's course". The only thing we can control is how quickly it does it. Other's arguing do we sacrifice grandma and grandpa to go back to work, they are going to get it, not if, when. Pandora's box has been opened.

*Pandora opened a jar left in her care containing sickness, death and many other unspecified evils which were then released into the world.

60 million people work for small businesses. The SBA says the average small business has enough cash to last twenty-seven days. They have twenty-seven days to run it’s course. So if we wait three of four months for the situation to run it’s course what do we do next with rampant unemployment and homelessness?

Goosegg posted:

Well, which one of your parents shall be sacrificed? Or, pick a son, a wife, a cousin  - maybe she wont mind. 

In all my readings about the Great Depression (with analogous unemployment rates and a decade of destitution), I dont recall the solution offered was sacrifice grandma.

There are advances every day by scientists, etc. California just announced, for example, a serology test which will show who is immune (assuming immunity actually is conferred). 

 

This post is an example of what I understand the situation to be. Hoping to hid grandma away long enough for science to find a "cure" (whatever that might look like) is not going to happen. The virus isn't just going to go away. Any "cure" is at least a year away. No matter how unfair those are the facts. The Depression is a poor example because you could skip a meal and give it to grandma, there were food lines, etc. This is totally out of our control for the foreseeable future.

ABSORBER posted:

TPM posted:

I saw a good on twitter the other day. Ordinary hard working Americans were supposed to have saved enough to get them through this crises, but big-time multi billion dollar corporations are complaining they are going broke and can't pay their employees.

What's the matter, they couldnt save for a rainy day?

The federal government WAS unprepared!

Edit:  FWIW, Montana has 281 confirmed cases 6 deaths.

Huh? Billion $ companies not being able to pay their employees == government being unprepared?

Yeah, you are right. 6 deaths and 281 cases in a very sparsely populated state; better shut it down!!!

As of today, that was the stats on MT. Let's see what it is in a week.

RJM posted:

SomeBaseballDad posted:

22and25 posted:

 There is no easy answer but just opening everything up and letting this thing "run it's course" is no bargain either. 

But it is going to "run it's course". The only thing we can control is how quickly it does it. Other's arguing do we sacrifice grandma and grandpa to go back to work, they are going to get it, not if, when. Pandora's box has been opened.

*Pandora opened a jar left in her care containing sickness, death and many other unspecified evils which were then released into the world.

60 million people work for small businesses. The SBA says the average small business has enough cash to last twenty-seven days. They have twenty-seven days to run it’s course. So if we wait three of four months for the situation to run it’s course what do we do next with rampant unemployment and homelessness?

But that's my point. Sheltering-in-place isn't going to stop it. It is here and will remain here. At some point you get on with living.

We stay home until the point when, when you get sick, there will be an ICU bed for you (and nurses to take care of you).  And then you hope and pray that that is enough; for some people, it won't be.

It's still called flattening the curve, and it's still valid.

Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

cabbagedad posted:

A pretty good article regarding resuming of sports in this reality...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/spor...akkt?ocid=spartandhp

 … early Fall at the earliest - absolute best case scenario.  Requires all of us to seriously stop the notion of trying to compare this to "just another flu" and car accidents.

Another piece has the peak use of hospital resources hitting 37 states during the last two weeks in April with another ten states seeing peak between May 1 and May 22.  Very difficult two months in front of us.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/heal...2VyT?ocid=spartandhp

Cabbagedad - the statistics used in your second article are from a site I posted about yesterday and RJM later posted too.  Is from healthdata.org.  If NY State is to peak in 4-5 days and the US in next 10-11 days things will be on the margin getting better not worse very soon.  Yes, next week or two will be tougher.  Also, look at the site -the projections, they are way off as it relates to resources needs, beds, ICU beds etc. In other words, things are coming in much lower than original projections

There will be a lot of work to do to get things heading back in the right direction. For my work I am confident we will not go 100% fully back for a month or two but Sports in some form will come back sooner than early fall.  Heck, early fall is more of a concern is Covid comes back....

NY State stats today from Gov Cuomo - the fewest number of new hospitalizations in over 2 weeks, Now below 600 new hospitalizations, down from 1100 the day before and from 1400 the day before, deaths down (one day only), Apex this week.  We are close to getting through the apex.   I know thinking positive won't bring things back faster but worst-case scenarios are NOT occurring at the moment and don't seem in the cards.  

Good post, thanks. I wish that everyone would take a look at the site you and others posted. 

anotherparent posted:

We stay home until the point when, when you get sick, there will be an ICU bed for you (and nurses to take care of you).  And then you hope and pray that that is enough; for some people, it won't be.

It's still called flattening the curve, and it's still valid.

I don't understand why people don't understand this concept.

In addition to healthdata.org coronavirus.jhu.edu is also a very informative site.

Aren’t we supposed to stay away from politics? There are plenty of forums for that, or Facebook.  Enough.

baseballhs posted:

Aren’t we supposed to stay away from politics? There are plenty of forums for that, or Facebook.  Enough.

I wasn't a Bush supporter. That said the dude had it right. Are we so entrenched in our positions it's impossible to give credit where credit is due? Is it just impossible to have an adult conversation? Obviously you can't, and others here can't, but some of us can. Can you not leave us in peace and ignore what triggers you?

anotherparent posted:

We stay home until the point when, when you get sick, there will be an ICU bed for you (and nurses to take care of you).  And then you hope and pray that that is enough; for some people, it won't be.

It's still called flattening the curve, and it's still valid.

So we stay at home until we get sick?  But if I stay home I won't get sick, so how does this work.  Your comment may have been facetious, but it points out something that I haven't heard anyone "in charge" say - what are the conditions under which we can all return to normal and restrictions lifted?  

It started out with flattening the curve, but that is a ridiculous notion if we only have 10k ventilators and over 300 million people need to get sick over some extended period of time (decades?) in order for this thing to run its course.  

Is it when the number of cases start to drop?  That doesn't work either, because as long as its out there, we'll all get sick if we start back up again.

Is it when a vaccine is found?  Possibly year, maybe more?

Is it when a treatment is found to work, then it's ok when we all get sick since we'll get better?

I'm just trying to figure out what data to look for, because cases and deaths don't tell us when this will be over.

I wasn't being facetious at all, I was being completely serious.  I am not an epidemiologist.  But, what we are waiting for is rapid virus and antibody tests that can be easily given to lots and lots of people.  Supposedly they have those ready now, and are testing them.

Rapid antibody tests will tell us how many people actually have had the virus and now have antibodies.  Once the epidemiologists have a sense of that (it is certainly many more people than have thus-far been tested positive), they will know how rapidly the virus will spread once we are let back out.

When we have rapid and readily available virus tests, they'll be able to test people with symptoms immediately, and isolate them immediately.  The point is to be able to quickly contain outbreaks when they happen again, rather than letting people wander around for weeks infecting others.

The third thing is that if people are getting sick at a lower rate, they won't overwhelm the medical system.  80% of people who get this (or probably more than that) don't need hospitalization at all.  20% of the 327 million do, that's 65 million.  7% may need ventilators, that's 23 million.  There are around 160,000 ventilators in the US (? quick google).  That's why it is critical to spread the numbers out.

All of that is why this is not like the flu.  Flu viruses have been around for decades or centuries, and a part of the population has built immunity to them.  So, not everyone gets them anyway, H1N1 case in point.  That was true even before flu vaccines.  COVID-19 is new, so no-one has immunity at all.

anotherparent posted:

We stay home until the point when, when you get sick, there will be an ICU bed for you (and nurses to take care of you).  And then you hope and pray that that is enough; for some people, it won't be.

It's still called flattening the curve, and it's still valid.

This is what it’s about. We can’t save everyone. But we can prevent some deaths from lack of services. 

anotherparent posted:

I wasn't being facetious at all, I was being completely serious.  I am not an epidemiologist.  But, what we are waiting for is rapid virus and antibody tests that can be easily given to lots and lots of people.  Supposedly they have those ready now, and are testing them.

Rapid antibody tests will tell us how many people actually have had the virus and now have antibodies.  Once the epidemiologists have a sense of that (it is certainly many more people than have thus-far been tested positive), they will know how rapidly the virus will spread once we are let back out.

When we have rapid and readily available virus tests, they'll be able to test people with symptoms immediately, and isolate them immediately.  The point is to be able to quickly contain outbreaks when they happen again, rather than letting people wander around for weeks infecting others.

The third thing is that if people are getting sick at a lower rate, they won't overwhelm the medical system.  80% of people who get this (or probably more than that) don't need hospitalization at all.  20% of the 327 million do, that's 65 million.  7% may need ventilators, that's 23 million.  There are around 160,000 ventilators in the US (? quick google).  That's why it is critical to spread the numbers out.

All of that is why this is not like the flu.  Flu viruses have been around for decades or centuries, and a part of the population has built immunity to them.  So, not everyone gets them anyway, H1N1 case in point.  That was true even before flu vaccines.  COVID-19 is new, so no-one has immunity at all.

 

Interesting analysis.  If I understand this, we need to get 23 million people through the medical care system 160k at a time before this is over.  If these ventilators are needed for 2 weeks per patient, each one can be used by 24 patients over the course of a year, so we can treat 3.8 million people per year... so 6 years for this to play out?  So we stay closed for 6 years?

We hope there will be a vaccine in 16 months or less.  We also hope there will be medicines that really help.  Engineers are inventing new ventilators and figuring out ways to use the ones we have for more than one person. The quicker those things are developed, tested, and produced, the quicker we don't have to rely on the ventilators.  Also, again I'm not an epidemiologist, but the more people who get the virus and become immune, the less likely there are to be widespread recurrences because it won't get a toehold.  I.e., herd immunity.

It all comes down to what scientists, doctors, and engineers can do, and whether the doctors and nurses can keep up the pace.

anotherparent posted:

We hope there will be a vaccine in 16 months or less.  We also hope there will be medicines that really help.  Engineers are inventing new ventilators and figuring out ways to use the ones we have for more than one person. The quicker those things are developed, tested, and produced, the quicker we don't have to rely on the ventilators.  Also, again I'm not an epidemiologist, but the more people who get the virus and become immune, the less likely there are to be widespread recurrences because it won't get a toehold.  I.e., herd immunity.

It all comes down to what scientists, doctors, and engineers can do, and whether the doctors and nurses can keep up the pace.

FYI, it takes years to develop a new ventilator. My spouse is a clinical engineer. He works for a ventilator company. They’ve ramped up production to 500 vents per week. Also, 3M isn’t the only one who sold out Americans. Another competitor company sold a boatload of vents to a European country in February. Dumb, dumb, dumb. 

anotherparent posted:

I wasn't being facetious at all, I was being completely serious.  I am not an epidemiologist.  But, what we are waiting for is rapid virus and antibody tests that can be easily given to lots and lots of people.  Supposedly they have those ready now, and are testing them.

Rapid antibody tests will tell us how many people actually have had the virus and now have antibodies.  Once the epidemiologists have a sense of that (it is certainly many more people than have thus-far been tested positive), they will know how rapidly the virus will spread once we are let back out.

When we have rapid and readily available virus tests, they'll be able to test people with symptoms immediately, and isolate them immediately.  The point is to be able to quickly contain outbreaks when they happen again, rather than letting people wander around for weeks infecting others.

The third thing is that if people are getting sick at a lower rate, they won't overwhelm the medical system.  80% of people who get this (or probably more than that) don't need hospitalization at all.  20% of the 327 million do, that's 65 million.  7% may need ventilators, that's 23 million.  There are around 160,000 ventilators in the US (? quick google).  That's why it is critical to spread the numbers out.

All of that is why this is not like the flu.  Flu viruses have been around for decades or centuries, and a part of the population has built immunity to them.  So, not everyone gets them anyway, H1N1 case in point.  That was true even before flu vaccines.  COVID-19 is new, so no-one has immunity at all.

 

Your post makes a lot of sense to me.   Bottom line is we need more data, and better methods to identify the virus and treat people.   We have none of this today, however the world and US is working towards this.   We have to buy ourselves time to better understand something we know very little about, and to execute a coordinated plan across a vast country.   It would be helpful if some of our states would follow Federal guidelines.   Those governors look like idiots.

We seem to be slowing it down slightly across the country with the exception of the "hot spots" like NYC where our system is overwhelmed and they are extremely reactive day to day.   When you turn on the news you get a NYC-centric view of the epidemic because it is a world-wide media capitaI.   The short-term tactics of isolation, facemasks, etc...buys us time to deal with the next critical decision.   I was listening to Dr Fauci over the weekend, and he referred to a "virus rebound"....which is a point in time when we think we have this thing under control, but it comes back temporarily and that is why we desperately need the vaccine or least better treatment methods. 

Listen, I'm not a Trump fan or supporter at all.  I can't stand the man.   But this isn't about politics.  This is about our elected leader, and respect for the Office of the President.  He is my President.   Trump and his team are doing a pretty good job of dealing with this so far.   

As always, JMO.

Well stated Fenway!  As your comments usually are. 

The data https://covid19.healthdata.org/ was quietly updated yesterday with no announcement. Again, this is what the policy makers are using to make decisions. Numbers had to be reduced again. Find your state and look at data. 

I think soon in some states the power will be given to governors to make own decisions on returning. 

James G posted:

The data https://covid19.healthdata.org/ was quietly updated yesterday with no announcement. Again, this is what the policy makers are using to make decisions. Numbers had to be reduced again. Find your state and look at data. 

I think soon in some states the power will be given to governors to make own decisions on returning. 

This was one of the models they were using, and is one of easiest to view.  I also notice that it is informatics based, which need reliable data to feed into it.  For Covid19, the data is constantly being updated, hopefully improving in reliability, and is constantly evolving.  I find it interesting that my state all of a sudden has hit its 'peak' in the model, but the US model looks worse.  In the end, it is more of an interest for data people like me.

One of the factors was obviously whether the state had a stay-at-home order, because Alabama's numbers dropped sharply, because they implemented stay-at-home on April 4, which was after the previous model had been released.  I wonder whether the weighting of the value of stay-at-home has increased in the model, now that they've seen how effective it was in Washington and California?

Viking0 posted:

James G posted:

The data https://covid19.healthdata.org/ was quietly updated yesterday with no announcement. Again, this is what the policy makers are using to make decisions. Numbers had to be reduced again. Find your state and look at data. 

I think soon in some states the power will be given to governors to make own decisions on returning. 

This was one of the models they were using, and is one of easiest to view.  I also notice that it is informatics based, which need reliable data to feed into it.  For Covid19, the data is constantly being updated, hopefully improving in reliability, and is constantly evolving.  I find it interesting that my state all of a sudden has hit its 'peak' in the model, but the US model looks worse.  In the end, it is more of an interest for data people like me.

Florida peak date changed since last update. Coming earlier than expected.  

I actually refer to my weather channel app which has a daily reporting of cases, deaths, etc., county and state.  If you don't see  the COVID button on your app, you need to update.