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I keep seeing good players choose to go D1 with little or even no money and either get cut or set on the bench versus going to a Juco and playing.  My sons juco was full of players that wasted a year of eligibility setting on a D1 bench.  I keep telling my former players that how much money you get is in direct proportion to what they think of you.  "Preferred or not" a freshman walk on will not play at a good D1 as a freshman.  My sons team had a JUCO walk on as a freshman sign as a 16 round draft pick after sophmore year this year.  Go where you can play.

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No offense, but I think this is a narrow perspective.  There's a lot of factors that go into the college experience and planning for one's future beyond baseball.  If these factors are overwhelming dominated by the desire to play ball and perhaps get drafted then I agree with you, but in a more general case I think the view of "go to school where you'd want to be even if you didn't play" is a good one.  Injuries happen, new studs show up, coaches change, etc so no matter what the situation or scholarship dollars there are no guarantees regarding playing baseball.

 

Given this particular choice with these outcomes, framed as stated with no information about anything else that might affect a player's college choice, playing at the JUCO may seem obvious . . . except for the fact that life doesn't present us with choices in which we know what lies ahead on each of two diverging paths.

 

Even if you ignore all the non-baseball factors--factors that should weigh heavily in most people's calculation--the decision is never that simple, and the outcomes are never that certain.

 

If you know you'll sit at a D1, you can't very well know you'll play at a JUCO that's good enough to develop a lot of D1 players and draft prospects. And it you know you'll play at a good JUCO, you might have a shot to play at the D1.

 

Sitting on the bench at the JUCO is also a possibility. So is playing at the JUCO but not landing a roster spot at four-year school afterward. So is getting hurt.

 

You phrased the question in a manner you hoped would simplify the decision, but it actually obscured the issues that need to be considered.

Not all D1 programs want JC transfers. If the player wants to play at the D1 level, maybe he is best suited going there and sitting on the bench and developing instead of playing JC games where he may not learn much.

 

Some schools actually take development fairly seriously while some JCs do not. So there's always that to factor in. Plus if a kid is a high-grades kid, he may not want to go to JC.

It depends on the player and what he wants in terms of a future in baseball and outside of baseball. I had a skipper from a baseball powerhouse ask me to walk on to the team my senior year of HS. That was by far the best school that showed any interest.

 

I weighed my options: do I want to go to a premier baseball program, play for one of the best college coaches with the knowledge I probably will not get many innings as an underclassman, if not my entire college career in favor of the elite D1 guys that school brings in? The pluses of that to me were: bragging rights, the women and being a big man on a big campus (in hindsight, not a good thing), a chance to play in the College World Series every year and be on TV, etc. I would also have to pay my way, but even if I was offered some money, my decision would have been the same.

 

Instead, I opted to play for a JUCO program in Arizona. Smaller school, less distractions, most people who don't have a knowledge of baseball will have never heard of your school. But I knew I could compete for major innings out of the pen and possibly be a number 3 or 4 starter as a freshman, and would likely be a 1 or 2 guy as a sophomore. I also knew I had a shot at being drafted and would still get exposure to multiple big league scouts at nearly every game, or improve myself with game experience and play D1 ball after. The competition was closer to where I was, but I still got to pitch against the Scott Hairstons, Ian Kinslers, Andre Ethiers, etc.

 

So there isn't a right or wrong answer. You need to assess your skill level realistically (maybe with some help of neutral parties) and then decide which things are more important to you. Me personally, I think there is no substitute for game experience. I was a varsity pitcher as a soph, but I feel my bat and glove wasted away that whole year on the bench when I wasn't pitching. Even though it was just one season, I feel it had a huge impact in my progression as a position player.

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