As a parent of an elbow injury rehabbing kid at the moment, I found this timely. If your son pitches, you should watch the video. Verlander is an excellent spokesman for the game.
Link: Verlander on Instagram
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This is a big topic on Twitter right now. And as usual there is a lot of pontificating by non-baseball people about what is going on in baseball. But I believe Verlander has it right. The arm issues are a result of the relentless chase for more velo. Especially with teenagers. And to me the biggest culprits are guys that are running “velocity camps”. These guys are often unqualified grifters that are just trying to make a buck - but they are ruining arms in the process. They use social media to lure impressionable young players (and their peers) into their money making web with false promises. It’s despicable.
I agree @adbono . Saw a D3 kid throw 97 last weekend.... two years ago he was throwing 83-85. I can't see his arm holding up.
Does anybody have any data on the average number of pitcher arm injuries on a per team basis? Is it a couple a year, five a year? I've seen some teams that seem to have more injuries than others and was wondering if it is a program issue or just bad luck.
@TerribleBPthrower posted:I agree @adbono . Saw a D3 kid throw 97 last weekend.... two years ago he was throwing 83-85. I can't see his arm holding up.
Does anybody have any data on the average number of pitcher arm injuries on a per team basis? Is it a couple a year, five a year? I've seen some teams that seem to have more injuries than others and was wondering if it is a program issue or just bad luck.
Could be either or both. It would be interesting to know protocols at places with low injury vs high. I’ve seen some pretty suspect things but also think if a guy throws hard it is likely to happen at some point.
@TerribleBPthrower posted:I agree @adbono . Saw a D3 kid throw 97 last weekend.... two years ago he was throwing 83-85. I can't see his arm holding up.
Does anybody have any data on the average number of pitcher arm injuries on a per team basis? Is it a couple a year, five a year? I've seen some teams that seem to have more injuries than others and was wondering if it is a program issue or just bad luck.
Of course there will be differences between college programs based on multiple factors.
My thesis is that you probably see more injuries at lower level D1 baseball than say P5 programs. Besides the obvious factors like coaching and facilities, I think you see coaches ride the hot hand more frequently because to get to regionals they have to win their conference and they have more unpredictability from their bullpen arms. This is anecdotal of course and I don't know the numbers but seems somewhat logical.
@nycdad posted:Of course there will be differences between college programs based on multiple factors.
My thesis is that you probably see more injuries at lower level D1 baseball than say P5 programs. Besides the obvious factors like coaching and facilities, I think you see coaches ride the hot hand more frequently because to get to regionals they have to win their conference and they have more unpredictability from their bullpen arms. This is anecdotal of course and I don't know the numbers but seems somewhat logical.
This is a good point.
One of the most dangerous positions you can be is to be the Ace or the #1 Relief pitcher on a D3, D2, or lower level D1 team. 95-98% of the time you will be overused, often to the point of craziness.
Relief pitchers throwing multiple innings in 3 different games in two days. That kind of thing.
If I had a top pitcher kid who was choosing between being drafted and playing in college, I would strongly advise going pro. At least in affiliated pro ball there is much less of a chance of them abusing their arm
College Pitchers are starting to look more and more like College Running Backs. Half used up before they ever get to the pros.
Just my 3 cents (adjusted for inflation)
@3and2Fastball posted:Relief pitchers throwing multiple innings in 3 different games in two days. That kind of thing.
I haven't seen anything quite that egregious.....But yeah it can be rough. My oldest son pointed out there are programs that have no guidelines around rest after getting hot too many times during a game. For example his team has something like if you get hot once, sit, hot again, come in you can only go 1IP. If you get hot 2x don't come in you need a day a rest. I'm sure my numbers are off but you get the picture. So there are well run low level D1 programs.
And sometimes stuff just happens. My youngest started season first out of the pen. 3 or 4 weeks in he was moved to Friday starter. Coaches were very good with his pitch counts. Slowly worked hime up. Made 4 starts. 2-1. Was getting through 5IP on 58-60 pitches for first few starts, etc. Figured with 6 days rest he'd be ok......And he's seeing Ahmad next week. Things happen unfortunately.
@nycdad posted:I haven't seen anything quite that egregious.....But yeah it can be rough. My oldest son pointed out there are programs that have no guidelines around rest after getting hot too many times during a game. For example his team has something like if you get hot once, sit, hot again, come in you can only go 1IP. If you get hot 2x don't come in you need a day a rest. I'm sure my numbers are off but you get the picture. So there are well run low level D1 programs.
So what would you say about a 40 pitch bull pen on a Thursday, got hot on Friday, got hot on Saturday, got hot on Sunday and then went into the game and threw 60 pitches? I calculate a minimum of 160-180 pitches over 4 days. First gameplay after TJ.
Why is he throwing a 40 pitch pen if he might pitch the next day? And 60 pitches in his first live action after TJ? Wouldn’t want my kid doing that.
@TerribleBPthrower posted:Why is he throwing a 40 pitch pen if he might pitch the next day? And 60 pitches in his first live action after TJ? Wouldn’t want my kid doing that.
I wouldn’t either but it happened. I find it incredibly irresponsible. P5
@baseballhs posted:So what would you say about a 40 pitch bull pen on a Thursday, got hot on Friday, got hot on Saturday, got hot on Sunday and then went into the game and threw 60 pitches? I calculate a minimum of 160-180 pitches over 4 days. First gameplay after TJ.
To quote Ruth Langmore "I don't know sh*t about f**k". But seems less than ideal....
I think it's rare to have success in pitching and not be overused. My son was lucky to have been a position player and only closed his senior year in HS which minimized his use. His sophomore juco year he pitched 69 innings but was second in the nation with 29 appearances - Arkansas was unhappy about that. Last year he ranked 7th in the AL with 71 appearances - it's beyond a grind. Now he's rehabbing from TJ.
As Verlander said, there's no real fix right now, throwing and spinning it very hard is currently the most common path.
Part of me wants to worry about number of pitches, part of me thinks it's overblown, especially if you are counting bullpens. I simply think pitchers arms are not built up enough when all this happens, too much protection and too little proper arm care and load. Too much of their throwing happening in games vs preparing for games or the season. I really do believe in high volume off season with minimal down time where the management comes in the intent.
Based on memory, if I threw 3 innings, regardless of number of pitches, and felt it the next day, I would have thought somethings was seriously wrong with my arm.
College also has issues with in season searching for starters and taking kids out of the bullpen to become starters without properly stretching them out to be a starter.
I haven't watched the Verlander video, will do that now, but one thing with Verlander is he is a guy who can rock 99mph all the time but doesn't. He manages his velo as a starting pitcher should, there when you need it, but you first need to know you need to get through 6-8 innings, not blow your.... in the second inning.
--okay should have watched it first... Agree a lot with what was said, both this is the state of the game today and who can say don't do it as well as it has to stop sometime. Also for goodness sakes MLB and NCAA, put the seams back on the freakin baseball!!!!! and Chicks are tired of the longball, seriously it's getting boring. (said every pitcher everywhere)
Saw some more of it today in the D3 world. Kid pitched a complete game on Sunday, then threw 2 innings of relief today on 2 days rest. Will start again on Saturday
D3 here as well, saw an opposing pitcher go 90+ pitches on Sat, and play shortstop on Sunday.
@dverespey posted:D3 here as well, saw an opposing pitcher go 90+ pitches on Sat, and play shortstop on Sunday.
Oh yeah. There is a lot of that, too. From a friend whose kid plays D3 in a east coast conference: Kid plays 3rd Base Friday, 3rd Base for all 18 innings (2 games) on Saturday, starts at 3rd on Sunday, pitches innings 5, 6, and 7 on Sunday, then finishes the game back at 3rd Base.
Coaches wondering why his velo is going down over the course of the season.
That was a thoughtful and concise response by Verlander. So does the game ever shift back to pitching rather than velo obsessed and pitchers that can go (or allowed to go) 7+ innings? Does it happen from the MLB for monetary reasons?
I also find it refreshing that he made a point to give his personal experience and said he wasn’t capable of throwing with the velo he has now before he physically developed in college.
Not in the clip, but aside from MLB injuries, it’s alarming that 57%+ of TJ surgeries are performed on 15-19yr olds. I wonder how many more young pitchers simply leave the game once they sustain a serious arm injury. Reminds me of my son’s pitching coach who emphasizes HS kids are playing Pitchers Survivor - Out Pitch, Out Play, and most importantly Out Last (no injuries).
Have a HS senior here. His pitching coaches emphasize mechanics and command, and have told him that velo will come along naturally as he matures, and he has 100% bought into it. He knows guys who have done the veto programs and a couple have, unfortunately, blown out their UCL's. One just happened a few weeks ago to a kid (junior) who was touching 90 as a sophomore. Some of the dads at our boys' game yesterday were talking about this young man and said that he would pitch in 2-3 games a weekend in middle school. Yeeeesh. A kid our son got to know over the years was used/abused like this and didn't have an arm left to make his mediocre high school team as a senior this season. He pitched against us last season and was "washed up." Oddly enough, his father is a medical doctor.
The biggest reason is obviously velocity but I don't think that we will ever get pitchers to lower velo or even just taking off something on some pitches.
There are ideas out that intent to force teams and pitchers to "pace" themselves (like the pitch clock or reducing roster size) but I think that won't help and cause pitchers to burn out even faster.
My idea would be the opposite. There are studies that the Japanese NBP league has well lower injury rates and while part of it that they throw slower on average also starters only pitch there once a week. There still is injury risk pitching like that but I think the extra rest lowers it some.
So why not expand rosters and allow up to 16 pitchers? That way teams could use 6 man rotations and give bullpen guys more rest.
I don't think this will eliminate all injuries but maybe it lowers the rate some.
Good article in the Washington Post today (probably behind a paywall if you've used up your WaPo free allotment) about driveline and AI and pitching:
https://www.washingtonpost.com...4/10/op-moneyballai/
Interviews Kyle Boddy, who used to post on HSBBW 
But what it doesn't talk about is the human factor - how many of the pitchers who go to Driveline eventually have career-ending injuries? And I'm not saying it's because of Driveline, just that it happens to a lot of pitchers. So analytics and AI can only take things so far, there is also simply the human body.