Justin Verlander on the rash of arm injuries this year

This is a big topic on Twitter right now. And as usual there is a lot of pontificating by non-baseball people about what is going on in baseball. But I believe Verlander has it right. The arm issues are a result of the relentless chase for more velo. Especially with teenagers. And to me the biggest culprits are guys that are running “velocity camps”. These guys are often unqualified grifters that are just trying to make a buck - but they are ruining arms in the process. They use social media to lure impressionable young players (and their peers) into their money making web with false promises. It’s despicable.

I agree @adbono . Saw a D3 kid throw 97 last weekend.... two years ago he was throwing 83-85. I can't see his arm holding up.

Does anybody have any data on the average number of pitcher arm injuries on a per team basis? Is it a couple a year, five a year? I've seen some teams that seem to have more injuries than others and was wondering if it is a program issue or just bad luck.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

I agree @adbono . Saw a D3 kid throw 97 last weekend.... two years ago he was throwing 83-85. I can't see his arm holding up.

Does anybody have any data on the average number of pitcher arm injuries on a per team basis? Is it a couple a year, five a year? I've seen some teams that seem to have more injuries than others and was wondering if it is a program issue or just bad luck.

Could be either or both. It would be interesting to know protocols at places with low injury vs high. I’ve seen some pretty suspect things but also think if a guy throws hard it is likely to happen at some point.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

I agree @adbono . Saw a D3 kid throw 97 last weekend.... two years ago he was throwing 83-85. I can't see his arm holding up.

Does anybody have any data on the average number of pitcher arm injuries on a per team basis? Is it a couple a year, five a year? I've seen some teams that seem to have more injuries than others and was wondering if it is a program issue or just bad luck.

Of course there will be differences between college programs based on multiple factors.

My thesis is that you probably see more injuries at lower level D1 baseball than say P5 programs. Besides the obvious factors like coaching and facilities, I think you see coaches ride the hot hand more frequently because to get to regionals they have to win their conference and they have more unpredictability from their bullpen arms. This is anecdotal of course and I don't know the numbers but seems somewhat logical.

@nycdad posted:

Of course there will be differences between college programs based on multiple factors.

My thesis is that you probably see more injuries at lower level D1 baseball than say P5 programs. Besides the obvious factors like coaching and facilities, I think you see coaches ride the hot hand more frequently because to get to regionals they have to win their conference and they have more unpredictability from their bullpen arms. This is anecdotal of course and I don't know the numbers but seems somewhat logical.

This is a good point.

One of the most dangerous positions you can be is to be the Ace or the #1 Relief pitcher on a D3, D2, or lower level D1 team.  95-98% of the time you will be overused, often to the point of craziness.

Relief pitchers throwing multiple innings in 3 different games in two days.  That kind of thing.  

If I had a top pitcher kid who was choosing between being drafted and playing in college, I would strongly advise going pro.  At least in affiliated pro ball there is much less of a chance of them abusing their arm

College Pitchers are starting to look more and more like College Running Backs.  Half used up before they ever get to the pros.

Just my 3 cents (adjusted for inflation)

@3and2Fastball posted:

Relief pitchers throwing multiple innings in 3 different games in two days.  That kind of thing.  

I haven't seen anything quite that egregious.....But yeah it can be rough. My oldest son pointed out there are programs that have no guidelines around rest after getting hot too many times during a game. For example his team has something like if you get hot once, sit, hot again, come in you can only go 1IP. If you get hot 2x don't come in you need a day a rest. I'm sure my numbers are off but you get the picture. So there are well run low level D1 programs.

And sometimes stuff just happens. My youngest started season first out of the pen. 3 or 4 weeks in he was moved to Friday starter. Coaches were very good with his pitch counts. Slowly worked hime up. Made 4 starts. 2-1. Was getting through 5IP on 58-60 pitches for first few starts, etc. Figured with 6 days rest he'd be ok......And he's seeing Ahmad next week. Things happen unfortunately.

@nycdad posted:

I haven't seen anything quite that egregious.....But yeah it can be rough. My oldest son pointed out there are programs that have no guidelines around rest after getting hot too many times during a game. For example his team has something like if you get hot once, sit, hot again, come in you can only go 1IP. If you get hot 2x don't come in you need a day a rest. I'm sure my numbers are off but you get the picture. So there are well run low level D1 programs.

So what would you say about a 40 pitch bull pen on a Thursday, got hot on Friday, got hot on Saturday, got hot on Sunday and then went into the game and threw 60 pitches?  I calculate a minimum of 160-180 pitches over 4 days. First gameplay after TJ.

Why is he throwing a 40 pitch pen if he might pitch the next day? And 60 pitches in his first live action after TJ? Wouldn’t want my kid doing that.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Why is he throwing a 40 pitch pen if he might pitch the next day? And 60 pitches in his first live action after TJ? Wouldn’t want my kid doing that.

I wouldn’t either but it happened. I find it incredibly irresponsible. P5

@baseballhs posted:

So what would you say about a 40 pitch bull pen on a Thursday, got hot on Friday, got hot on Saturday, got hot on Sunday and then went into the game and threw 60 pitches?  I calculate a minimum of 160-180 pitches over 4 days. First gameplay after TJ.

To quote Ruth Langmore "I don't know sh*t about f**k". But seems less than ideal....

I think it's rare to have success in pitching and not be overused. My son was lucky to have been a position player and only closed his senior year in HS which minimized his use. His sophomore juco year he pitched 69 innings but was second  in the nation with 29 appearances - Arkansas was unhappy about that. Last year he ranked 7th in the AL with 71 appearances - it's beyond a grind. Now he's rehabbing from TJ.

As Verlander said, there's no real fix right now, throwing and spinning it very hard is currently the most common path.  

Part of me wants to worry about number of pitches, part of me thinks it's overblown, especially if you are counting bullpens.  I simply think pitchers arms are not built up enough when all this happens, too much protection and too little proper arm care and load.  Too much of their throwing happening in games vs preparing for games or the season.  I really do believe in high volume off season with minimal down time where the management comes in the intent.

Based on memory, if I threw 3 innings, regardless of number of pitches, and felt it the next day, I would have thought somethings was seriously wrong with my arm.

College also has issues with in season searching for starters and taking kids out of the bullpen to become starters without properly stretching them out to be a starter.

I haven't watched the Verlander video, will do that now,  but one thing with Verlander is he is a guy who can rock 99mph all the time but doesn't.  He manages his velo as a starting pitcher should, there when you need it, but you first need to know you need to get through 6-8 innings, not blow your.... in the second inning.

--okay should have watched it first... Agree a lot with what was said, both this is the state of the game today and who can say don't do it as well as it has to stop sometime.  Also for goodness sakes MLB and NCAA, put the seams back on the freakin baseball!!!!!  and Chicks are tired of the longball, seriously it's getting boring. (said every pitcher everywhere)

Saw some more of it today in the D3 world.  Kid pitched a complete game on Sunday, then threw 2 innings of relief today on 2 days rest.  Will start again on Saturday

D3 here as well, saw an opposing pitcher go 90+ pitches on Sat, and play shortstop on Sunday.

@dverespey posted:

D3 here as well, saw an opposing pitcher go 90+ pitches on Sat, and play shortstop on Sunday.

Oh yeah. There is a lot of that, too.  From a friend whose kid plays D3 in a east coast conference: Kid plays 3rd Base Friday, 3rd Base for all 18 innings (2 games) on Saturday, starts at 3rd on Sunday, pitches innings 5, 6, and 7 on Sunday, then finishes the game back at 3rd Base.  

Coaches wondering why his velo is going down over the course of the season.  

That was a thoughtful and concise response by Verlander.  So does the game ever shift back to pitching rather than velo obsessed and pitchers that can go (or allowed to go) 7+ innings?   Does it happen from the MLB for monetary reasons?

I also find it refreshing that he made a point to give his personal experience and said he wasn’t capable of throwing with the velo he has now before he physically developed in college.  

Not in the clip, but aside from MLB injuries, it’s alarming that 57%+ of TJ surgeries are performed on 15-19yr olds.  I wonder how many more young pitchers simply leave the game once they sustain a serious arm injury.  Reminds me of my son’s pitching coach who emphasizes HS kids are playing Pitchers Survivor - Out Pitch, Out Play, and most importantly Out Last (no injuries).  

Have a HS senior here. His pitching coaches emphasize mechanics and command, and have told him that velo will come along naturally as he matures, and he has 100% bought into it. He knows guys who have done the veto programs and a couple have, unfortunately, blown out their UCL's. One just happened a few weeks ago to a kid (junior) who was touching 90 as a sophomore. Some of the dads at our boys' game yesterday were talking about this young man and said that he would pitch in 2-3 games a weekend in middle school. Yeeeesh. A kid our son got to know over the years was used/abused like this and didn't have an arm left to make his mediocre high school team as a senior this season. He pitched against us last season and was "washed up." Oddly enough, his father is a medical doctor.

The biggest reason is obviously velocity but I don't think that we will ever get pitchers to lower velo or even just taking off something on some pitches.

There are ideas out that intent to force teams and pitchers to "pace" themselves (like the pitch clock or reducing roster size) but I think that won't help and cause pitchers to burn out even faster.

My idea would be the opposite. There are studies that the Japanese NBP league has well lower injury rates and while part of it that they throw slower on average also starters only pitch there once a week. There still is injury risk pitching like that but I think the extra rest lowers it some.

So why not expand rosters and allow up to 16 pitchers? That way teams could use 6 man rotations and give bullpen guys more rest.

I don't think this will eliminate all injuries but maybe it lowers the rate some.

Good article in the Washington Post today (probably behind a paywall if you've used up your WaPo free allotment) about driveline and AI and pitching:

https://www.washingtonpost.com...4/10/op-moneyballai/

Interviews Kyle Boddy, who used to post on HSBBW   But what it doesn't talk about is the human factor - how many of the pitchers who go to Driveline eventually have career-ending injuries?  And I'm not saying it's because of Driveline, just that it happens to a lot of pitchers.  So analytics and AI can only take things so far, there is also simply the human body.

good article speed demon

We're in the age of the max, and unfortunately I don't think there's a return path to any of it.

Pick a sport; surfing, skateboarding, motocross, mountain biking, skiing/snowboarding, skydiving (or whatever they call that winged suit stuff), free climbing and they're all doing things we'd have thought impossible 30 years ago. Everything is pushed to the absolute edge of possibility, and can't imagine it winding backwards.

Even sailboat racing - Sail GP - 55 MPH sailboats lol! I threw that in because I think it's beyond cool...

There will alway be outliers, athletes that don't have to go all out to be effective, but if you're on the bubble of reaching your dream, who's not going push their physical limits to get there?

As a parent of a kid with plus arm, I think the only thing you can do is to attempt to minimize max effort and max spin for as long as possible. My son (late bloomer) didn't start throwing in the mid to upper 90's until he was 20, so 8 years until he needed TJS. Although I feel (unsubstantiated) that spinning the ball hard is the biggest stressor.

Unlike steroids, I don't believe there's a way to take max effort out of the game. The only thing to do is try to minimize it as parents and not support pushing max until their frames can best handle the stresses.

Great article.  Among other things, it says:

Rob Friedman, a.k.a. the Pitching Ninja . . . posted a compilation of every pitch in 2023 thrown over the middle of the plate that clocked 102 mph or above—27 in total. Only two resulted in hits. “It’s very hard to hit a very hard fastball, even if it’s right down the middle,” he told me. “That’s why pitchers do it, and I don’t think it’s going to change.” . . . .

Minor leaguers who throw 100 mph but can’t keep it over the plate are far more prized than prospects with elite control who top out at 93 mph. If playing in the big leagues requires pushing your elbow beyond its breaking point, plenty of people will make that deal. . . . .

Maybe it’s not just the speed of the pitches but also the shape of them. Today’s athletes are throwing pitches commonly referred to as “off-speed”—sliders, sinkers, sweepers, which break sideways like a broom—as hard as they can. “Guys are trying to sweep the ball, carry the ball, sink the ball, throw depthy curve balls, pronate changeups,” Zombro told me. “Would I say, ‘Are guys throwing too hard?’ No. Guys throwing hard and trying to manipulate the ball in a ton of different ways? That certainly could be a risk factor.”

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/...es-at-amateur-level/

Good article posted by @SpeedDemon.    But, as with almost anything in print media, it contains some revisionist history. Let’s start with this - Alan Jaeger didn’t invent long toss. I was doing long toss 50 years ago. I’m sure Jaeger is not irresponsible enough to make a claim like that as he would be laughed out of the industry. I will write it off as more shoddy journalism. But what a joke to put a statement like that in print. Another thing that gets glossed over about today’s velocity numbers is that they are measured differently now. Velo used to be measured when the ball crossed the plate. Modern radar guns measure the velocity the instant the ball comes out of the pitcher’s hand. The difference is about 5-6 mph. There have always been guys that throw hard. There have always been guys that throw 100. Now there are just a lot more of them. MLB is a corporation that is motivated by greed just like every other major corporation. The “studies” they publish are designed to influence public opinion. They don’t tell the truth any more than Dow Chemical does. MLB tells you what they want you to hear in hopes that you keep spending outrageous sums of money on their product. And they make sure, that as a condition of their employment, that players, coaches, managers, announcers, media members, etc. toe the company line and do the same.

@adbono posted:

Good article posted by @SpeedDemon.    But, as with almost anything in print media, it contains some revisionist history. Let’s start with this - Alan Jaeger didn’t invent long toss. I was doing long toss 50 years ago. I’m sure Jaeger is not irresponsible enough to make a claim like that as he would be laughed out of the industry. I will write it off as more shoddy journalism. But what a joke to put a statement like that in print. Another thing that gets glossed over about today’s velocity numbers is that they are measured differently now. Velo used to be measured when the ball crossed the plate. Modern radar guns measure the velocity the instant the ball comes out of the pitcher’s hand. The difference is about 5-6 mph. There have always been guys that throw hard. There have always been guys that throw 100. Now there are just a lot more of them. MLB is a corporation that is motivated by greed just like every other major corporation. The “studies” they publish are designed to influence public opinion. They don’t tell the truth any more than Dow Chemical does. MLB tells you what they want you to hear in hopes that you keep spending outrageous sums of money on their product. And they make sure, that as a condition of their employment, that players, coaches, managers, announcers, media members, etc. toe the company line and do the same.

exactly right on the guns.  I threw 86 in college 35 years ago and I know it was harder than what I see in a lot of Div III games I go to when I see it pop up on the gun.  LIke you said, guys could always throw hard, there are just more using the weight room now to get there.  We were told not to lift anything basically for upper body and certainly not overhead.  So you had guys who threw that naturally, not by developing their bodies too quickly to throw it.

One other statement I take as a grain of salt is this:  "prospects with elite control who top out at 93 mph. "  I don't think there are that many guys out there who have elite control,  let alone command.  Nor do I believe they are ignored by scouts,  93 and command, if he can spin a pitch or two with that, he's brought through the organization.  Now that means sitting 91-93, not touching it once.  Is he the unicorn, no, but there is plenty of them in the pros.

As a fan, If you want to talk extremes, I'd rather see a guy with electric stuff who may be "effectively wild" than watch someone with straight as an arrow average stuff that gets hit all over the yard.  The rare guy in college who throws slow and gets away with it, only lasts once through the lineup and not always that long.  The number of kids I see at 77-80 in DIII is just mind blowing, as that wouldn't even play in our high school, you see it once in a while but those teams usually fill out the bottom of the standings.  The better diii teams have mostly pitchers at or above 85mph.

I've seen it said, and I have witnessed it. Talking strictly fastballs  76-80 in high school gets away with it,  81-84 gets clobbered and 85 plus is often lights out.

Velocity plays and should over slow throwing control pitchers.

College and pro's aren't any different, just raise the velo a bit.

Every pitcher knows the risks, they just hope they have a ligament that can handle it.  For youth, parents need to keep close watch.

ps.  I took the long toss statement as Alan Jeager invented it for this generation of players, certainly made it popular and designed entire throwing programs around it.  but better clarification would have been responsible journalism.

Good HS teams will crush 90mph fastballs if they don't have movement. Maybe even average HS teams. For some reason those crafty mid-70's kids can completely shut a decent team down.

Just watched a very interesting interview with John Smoltz on Flipping Bats podcast on YouTube. He makes some very interesting points regarding this topic. I agree with what he is saying.  Velo chasing is NOT going to end anytime soon because that is the ONLY thing that gets you an opportunity. If you don’t throw gas you will never get an opportunity at the next level (whatever that is) to prove that you can pitch. Then you get injured chasing the velo and you never get an opportunity at the next level. It’s a cruel truth.

@TexasLefty posted:

So does the game ever shift back to pitching rather than velo obsessed and pitchers that can go (or allowed to go) 7+ innings?   Does it happen from the MLB for monetary reasons?

Definitely not monetary reasons. The increase in pitchers with high velo has decreased the premium teams have to pay for it. Teams have figured out how to churn through anonymous relievers throwing 95+ and getting paid the minimum. The teams with the lowest payroll use the most pitchers. The A's used 41 different pitchers last season. The Rays used 40. Total pitchers used in MLB increased from 557 in 1998 to 863 in 2023.

You also have to consider that many pitchers are "fighting for their life".

There are studies suggesting that "sitting" farther from your max (I think the threshold was like 4 mph or more) helps your health while guys who sit within like 2-3 mph of their season max for most of their pitches would get hurt more.

Justin Verlander actually did that a lot, he could throw 99 but he would often start the game like 93-94 and only reach back for the 97, 98, 99 a couple times a game when there is a tight spot.

That worked well for Verlander but if you are a guy sitting 92 and maxing 94 and you are just clinging on to a sub 5 era you can't afford to dial down his sitting velo to 90 or you get send to the minors or DFAed.