Luck vs talent

Good players create their own luck

I will take a team of Jeters, lucky or not lucky

Luck? There is no such thing. You will be lucky if you can fine someone to prove that there is such a thing!!
Good Luck!
Fungo

Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect. Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803 - 1882)

I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it. Thomas Jefferson

Hey Fungo...I know one guy that had no luck at all...Stagger Lee!

That's right, Stagger Lee was right down the road from you --- on the south side of Chicago.

I am with TR on this one - Talent creates its own luck. However, I do believe that the talent has to be in the right place at the right time.

Great answers from wise men.

I'd rather be lucky than smart...

Luck, sure. Lucky enough to have God given talent and know how to use it. Lucky enough to be mentally smart and tough. Lucky enough to be in the right places and the right time. Lucky enough to make things happen. I like that kind of lucky guy.

Over long periods of time, there isn't such thing as luck. You won't find a batter who consistently gets "lucky" hits in the long haul.

Certainly there are chance-related events that can significantly change the course of a player's career. Freak injury, for instance.

But I don't see how someone can say Jeter was "lucky," other than to say his incredible physical talents were an accident of birth.

It's like in professional poker... any given hand or table, luck is a big factor. One player might get far better cards than others. But over the seasons, there is a reason why the same players end up at the final table time and again, and it ain't luck.

quote:

Originally posted by CatSureMom:
This has probably been mentioned here before, took a quick look and could not find. I was reading ESPN magazine article on Derek Jeter, the gist of the article revolved around the idea that Jeter was basically just lucky (I don't know either way about that), but it did make me wonder.
?

Catsure,

I think Derek was lucky enough to be born with incredible talent and desire.

And I think the ESPN hack that wrote that money grubbing media garbage was "unlucky" to be born an ignorant fool.

LOL

And on a more serious note about luck.

Luck does exist. Good and bad.

Tell a Lottery winner that it doesnt. LOL
Or someone struck by lightening.

Do the math.
IMO.

its,
You made perfect sense util you said "do the math" and that explains that luck is a non-factor. If being struck by lighting was determined by luck or lack of luck, we could all be just as safe playing golf during a thunderstorm as taking shelter in a house. Do the math --- there will always be a lotto winner. If lotto winners were based on "luck" even I might by a ticket but since they are based on odds, which are pure mathimatical, I can punch in the numbers and would rather invest my money elsewhere --- like baseball.
Fungo

Fungo,

That is one we will just have to agree to disagree on - when it comes to the math.

When you are picked - randomly - 1 out of 10 million - that is luck.

You can argue around it - but 1 out of 10 million - or 1 out of 1 million - or even 1 out of one hundred - is pure luck.

And I agree with you about investing money.

However - if you feel "lucky", buy a $1 ticket too. You gotta be in it to win it.

LOL

Fungo,

I just screwed the whole thing up LOL

I posted - but inadvertantly wrote over your last post.

I better lay off the afternoon beer. LOL

BTW- I like "Fortunate" instead of "luck"- Its a good compromise - You have a deal.


Sorry.

--- Hey, It ain't like it made any sense anyway ----

Fungo - I attribute the whole posting screw up thing to Bad luck. LOL

Luck is the residue of hard work and preparation.

Actually, a couple of guys did 'do the math' and concluded (at the MLB level) that talent and luck/chance account for differences in performance in roughly equal measures. (Jay Bennett and Aryn Martin wrote the article "The Numbers Game" in Baseall And Philosophy...interesting book). One of their specific examples concerned batting ttles, and how one or two bloopers over the course of the season could make the difference. Or how, given equal talent what the normal spread of batting averages would be, how chance would have the spread, and how an actual season had the numbers. The difference between those two models, they concluded, would be accounted for by both factors.

I think that ball players recognize just how much of the game is beyond their control and governed by luck ---- that's why there are so very many superstitions associated with baseball and why so many players have their own little rituals.

A guy with a .996 fielding percentage makes an error that allows the winning run to score, giving your son the win. His talent kept them in the game, but was it luck that gave him the win?

The opposing team's ace comes down with the flu on the day of the Big Game, and you end up winning. Your good luck?

The winning run scores because the angle of the sun interfered with an OF's ability to track the ball. Luck?

During a 0-0 pitcher's duel, one guy lets go a gopher ball that he wishes he could have back the mintute it left his hand. It's not to the light-hitting guy, it's to the #4 batter and ends up over the fence. Why was that one mistake pitch sent his way and not someone who might have gotten a double out of it? Chance?

I can't see building a team out of luck, but I don't think there's any doubt that luck plays a big part in baseball.

Years ago, we were at the Cardinal's training facility during ST, and my English husband who knew little of the game had an opportunity to have a conversation with Red Schoendist, a man with just a little experience in the game. Looking at all the athletes there, he asked Red how they could determine which were worthy of making the roster. Red said if they were invited to camp, they had the talent to make it; the rest was down to luck --- the team needed someone at their position, and they had a great ST, a couple of outstanding plays when someone influential was watching that put the spotlight on them for next season, that sort of thing.

Another old baseball saying: The squibbers go for hits and the line drives get caught. Luck?

Luck is what you call it when preparation meets opportunity.

Luck is what people call it when a group of seemingly less talented individuals gel as a unit and win championships.

With squibbs and bloops, Luck is hitting them against fielders unable to make the play.

Luck is guessing fastball and getting one to send out of the park.

Bad Luck is winning your respective League Championships, only to have both home stadiums severely damaged by an earthquake.

"In order to be lucky,
Ya gotta think lucky!"

regards
Bear

I am a big believer in luck, both good and bad.

That old saying about "I'd rather be lucky than good". There's a problem with it.

It's much easier to be "good" for a long period of time than it is to be "lucky" for that long! Sometimes it seems like you can stay unlucky for quite awhile, though.

Luck does exist.

I am a true believer in making your own luck. I also believe that luck does exist. Even the true control freaks cannot plan for ANYTHING that could happen.

I guess you could say I believe there are two types of luck - and we're not talking about good luck and bad luck here either.

There is the kind that you CAN control - and the kind you CANNOT.

The problem with some folks is they encounter a few things they CANNOT control and they simply stop trying to control the things they CAN.

By all means prepare as best you can. But don't freak out when luck strikes. I certainly wouldn't plan my team or my life around those instances of luck though.

The harder you work the more luck you have. The better you are the more luck you have. Luck is not consistent. Sometimes kids will get lucky by pulling off a pitch and hitting a dinker behind fb for a hit. But baseball is about being able to consistently hit. Consistently hit your spots as a pitcher. Consistently make the routine play. Every once in awhile you will do something that cheats the game. But the players and teams that are consistent don't need to be lucky. Just good.