From a 5/20/03 article on mlb.com Thought some might find it interesting.
http://www.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd...b&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
Original Post
Replies sorted oldest to newest
And yet....some more good stuff....
Baseball America has analyzed the 2,115 players who signed out of the first 10 rounds of the 1990-97 drafts. They didn't study any of the more recent drafts, because in most cases it's too early to determine how good the players will become. This was done in 2003.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/90-97draftbreakdown.html
Baseball America has analyzed the 2,115 players who signed out of the first 10 rounds of the 1990-97 drafts. They didn't study any of the more recent drafts, because in most cases it's too early to determine how good the players will become. This was done in 2003.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/90-97draftbreakdown.html
You guys need to look at these stats and stories.
LOW337 posted these informative info sources relating to the Pro vs College topic of forum last night which does clear up alot of questions.
Peace, Shep
LOW337 posted these informative info sources relating to the Pro vs College topic of forum last night which does clear up alot of questions.
Peace, Shep
Low,
Thanks for the good reads.
If I was a first time poster tryingto help son make a decision, I would definetly tell him to get in the college experience first.
In the second post, seems like college players faired better, unless you were a second baseman
or am I misunderstanding the results?
Thanks for the good reads.
If I was a first time poster tryingto help son make a decision, I would definetly tell him to get in the college experience first.
In the second post, seems like college players faired better, unless you were a second baseman
or am I misunderstanding the results?
No problem TPM.
Biases (or experiences) will lead to varied advice.
It's pretty clear that money that is life changing to one person may not be life changing to another.
Please keep in mind that parents/players may only have first hand experience w/ the dilema of wheather to sign or not, once or twice in a lifetime. Scouts have first hand experience much more often (as it is their job). Both arguments or views often lean to one side.
If one chooses to be imformed then they will do just that. If not, then.....best of luck to them. Bottom line to me is "How much is 3 to 5 years of school WORTH to YOU."
Biases (or experiences) will lead to varied advice.
It's pretty clear that money that is life changing to one person may not be life changing to another.
Please keep in mind that parents/players may only have first hand experience w/ the dilema of wheather to sign or not, once or twice in a lifetime. Scouts have first hand experience much more often (as it is their job). Both arguments or views often lean to one side.
If one chooses to be imformed then they will do just that. If not, then.....best of luck to them. Bottom line to me is "How much is 3 to 5 years of school WORTH to YOU."
quote:Please keep in mind that parents/players may only have first hand experience w/ the dilema of wheather to sign or not, once or twice in a lifetime. Scouts have first hand experience much more often (as it is their job).
Low337, What exactly are you saying? Surely you aren't saying the scout's perspective is better simply because he's done this many times before. Generally speaking a scout's ultimate goal is to have his players sign. That is about as biased as one can get. On the other hand, a parent's goal is to do what is in the best interest of their son (which may include going pro). I can tell stories and exceptions about scouts and recruiting but that would be too lengthy. After looking at the data it's clear the odds for success in professional baseball are dim. My son (6th rounder)currently has a 5.6% chance of being a regular or better MLB player. Even though he was a higher draft pick out of high school (5th rounder), I'm glad he didn't sign because he would only have had a 5.3% chance of being a "regular or better" MLB player and a 0% chance of being a star. Can we say "snowball's chance" of survival? It has to be a real challege for the professional scout to sell the MLB career to the young player. I'll bet they don't pass out the Jim Callis data sheet to prospects.
Fungo
It just hit me Fungo....I think I've been in your living room before.....speaking to you, your wife and son....JB (son) right?
And what I meant w/ the above comment was exactly that....Scouts have seen many more players over the years....seen kids fail....seen kids succeed....seen kids whom they thought should have sign but didn't....seen kids that shouldn't have signed, sign......they just have much more experience w/ the workings of the draft and things that traspire afterward.
I think my statement above speaks for itself.....Views are biased (both ways).....for many reasons.....
Again I will say.....It depends on how much 3 - 5 years of school is worth to a player......EACH CASE IS DIFFERENT.....
I have no dog in this fight.......I don't care one way or another....it can work out or not in both avenues for various reasons.....
And what I meant w/ the above comment was exactly that....Scouts have seen many more players over the years....seen kids fail....seen kids succeed....seen kids whom they thought should have sign but didn't....seen kids that shouldn't have signed, sign......they just have much more experience w/ the workings of the draft and things that traspire afterward.
I think my statement above speaks for itself.....Views are biased (both ways).....for many reasons.....
Again I will say.....It depends on how much 3 - 5 years of school is worth to a player......EACH CASE IS DIFFERENT.....
I have no dog in this fight.......I don't care one way or another....it can work out or not in both avenues for various reasons.....
LOW337,
I do have a wife and a living room and a son named JB.
In my previous post I said:
I can tell stories and exceptions about scouts and recruiting but that would be too lengthy.
Were you an exception?
Fungo
I do have a wife and a living room and a son named JB.
In my previous post I said:
I can tell stories and exceptions about scouts and recruiting but that would be too lengthy.
Were you an exception?
Fungo
Figuring that the draft was started to use colleges as testing and proving grounds for players, I have to assume that for baseball the experiment has failed.
Many feel that the introduction of the aluminum bat cancelled all bets.
Today where a college education is almost mandatory to become successful the only real reasons to sign a pro contract out of high school would be reasonable compensation or exceptional skill levels. The idea of playing out a dream is also a good reason though not usually one that is profitable.
I think that more often than not scouts regard potential far too high as compared with existing skill level.
The other side of the question is time and age. If the average pro player takes five years to reach MLB skill levels, that player would be four years older than the kid signed out of high school or a foreign country most often.
The college player has a better foundation for the rest of his life than a high school signee. The high school signee has the advantage of applying those same five years at an earlier age.
Skill level plus potential, in that order, should be the determining factor. It is a better starting point than having more potential than skill.
Many feel that the introduction of the aluminum bat cancelled all bets.
Today where a college education is almost mandatory to become successful the only real reasons to sign a pro contract out of high school would be reasonable compensation or exceptional skill levels. The idea of playing out a dream is also a good reason though not usually one that is profitable.
I think that more often than not scouts regard potential far too high as compared with existing skill level.
The other side of the question is time and age. If the average pro player takes five years to reach MLB skill levels, that player would be four years older than the kid signed out of high school or a foreign country most often.
The college player has a better foundation for the rest of his life than a high school signee. The high school signee has the advantage of applying those same five years at an earlier age.
Skill level plus potential, in that order, should be the determining factor. It is a better starting point than having more potential than skill.
quote:Scouts are saying the next crop of non-college players to be drafted are way ahead of the curve of many college players as far as hitting.
Interesting that "scouts" would "say" this.
As soon as the college season ends, many college players, especially the ones likely to be drafted, play the next 3 months...with wood. Most play at least 40 games and some as many as 65 games during the summer. They play nearly everyday...with wood.
When they return in the Fall, many continue to hit with...wood. When scouts come in the Fall, many better college hitters use...wood. Nearly everytime our son took BP his last 3 years in college, he used wood.
I am not sure I understand the basis for what the "scouts" are "saying."
And some players also play in all wood bat leagues in college as well.
While it is good to see a return to using wood bats for the few, I think the many are not.
I don't imagine that there are enough wood bat summer leagues to accomodate all of the college ball players across the nation.
The players with aspirations to play pro ball are usually the ones who seek out the wood bat leagues and conferences.
If all college ball players have such aspirations, it would behoove the college baseball governing bodies to make the switch.
Some have tried to 'outlaw' aliminum but have been hit with 'restriction of trade' law suits.
I don't imagine that there are enough wood bat summer leagues to accomodate all of the college ball players across the nation.
The players with aspirations to play pro ball are usually the ones who seek out the wood bat leagues and conferences.
If all college ball players have such aspirations, it would behoove the college baseball governing bodies to make the switch.
Some have tried to 'outlaw' aliminum but have been hit with 'restriction of trade' law suits.
quote:Willie Bobo posted: I don't imagine that there are enough wood bat summer leagues to accomodate all of the college ball players across the nation.
There may be a limit to the number of people willing to organize or watch bad baseball, though. Not everybody in college can hit, let alone with a wood bat. I watched a little summer ball recently and was completely underwhelmed at the depth of many teams. It just ain't there.
quote:If all college ball players have such aspirations, it would behoove the college baseball governing bodies to make the switch.
Why? Because the kids want to play pro-ball? Just ignore the fact that only about 5% could hit their weight with wood against decent pitching? 95% of college players never play pro ball. They can't play pro ball. They are not good enough. College ball is very different than pro ball. Two different species. Not even close.
Unfortunately for the Giants and the player, they are "guessing" at how he will do when he starts to experience "the competition."
To illustrate, I have somewhat followed a similar player who signed last year for well over $500,000. Lot's of accolades/can't miss/great power/etc. In 2 seasons in Rookie ball, the player is yet to hit over .175.
One common theme I have seen in some posts over the past several days is, my impresion at least, that high achievement in high school is meaningful in the world of baseball. Unfortunately, I just don't think it is. College and professional baseball has a way of exposing the weak spot of nearly every player, no matter how good they were in high school/college/elsewhere. When those weaknesses get exposed, some players never recover while others adjust and become better players.
Before you get to college and professional baseball, you really don't have a clue how you will compete against "the competition."
To illustrate, I have somewhat followed a similar player who signed last year for well over $500,000. Lot's of accolades/can't miss/great power/etc. In 2 seasons in Rookie ball, the player is yet to hit over .175.
One common theme I have seen in some posts over the past several days is, my impresion at least, that high achievement in high school is meaningful in the world of baseball. Unfortunately, I just don't think it is. College and professional baseball has a way of exposing the weak spot of nearly every player, no matter how good they were in high school/college/elsewhere. When those weaknesses get exposed, some players never recover while others adjust and become better players.
Before you get to college and professional baseball, you really don't have a clue how you will compete against "the competition."
OS8
My son played with a middle infielder kid who took the $$$ from the Brewers, $675,000 in 2002. He was released in June batting .211, his highest since .255 his 1st year.
He could hit 82 mph belt high fastballs a long way and was a good fielder. He just never got any better than his last year in high school.
My son played with a middle infielder kid who took the $$$ from the Brewers, $675,000 in 2002. He was released in June batting .211, his highest since .255 his 1st year.
He could hit 82 mph belt high fastballs a long way and was a good fielder. He just never got any better than his last year in high school.
quote:Without any substantiation, I would guess the vast majority of HS hitters in the next draft were all seen in the batters box against Premier pitching already
I think that is pretty much without substantiation.
I would think the vast majority of HS hitters were all seen in the batters box against "Premier high school pitching." From what I have seen, you can be a premier high school pitcher, and rightly so, based on velocity, not the based on the ability to pitch. College and professional hitters live on guys who throw 90 and make mistakes. The difference between high school, even at the best levels and college/professional baseball is enormous. Plenty of very good baseball people make a lot of mistakes if less that 1 in 10 players selected in the first 10 rounds of the draft ever becomes a regular at the major league level.
Great article.
The Giants paid that much money for a showcase player. He never played organized ball. I wonder what they were looking at.
I like the description of his talent, but until it is proven that he can demonstrate his abilities on the field his talent has to remain suspect.
Taking the bonus was definitely the right thing for him and his family. As long as the money is in the bank, he has the opportunity to either shine or not.
Dad,
You must have stopped in on the I-4 League as I call it. Their inability to adjust to the different weight distribution with the wood bat is often glaring. These games should exhibit strong pitching and defense. While good coaching will help with the adjustment to the wood bat, these players for the most part will be returning to aluminum at school.
A lack of hitting can denote great pitching. A lack of defense is self explanatory.
The Giants paid that much money for a showcase player. He never played organized ball. I wonder what they were looking at.
I like the description of his talent, but until it is proven that he can demonstrate his abilities on the field his talent has to remain suspect.
Taking the bonus was definitely the right thing for him and his family. As long as the money is in the bank, he has the opportunity to either shine or not.
Dad,
You must have stopped in on the I-4 League as I call it. Their inability to adjust to the different weight distribution with the wood bat is often glaring. These games should exhibit strong pitching and defense. While good coaching will help with the adjustment to the wood bat, these players for the most part will be returning to aluminum at school.
A lack of hitting can denote great pitching. A lack of defense is self explanatory.
Sure has that suggestion.
MLB and the Japan Major League have complexes down there seeking out talent. They're giving free instruction, housing, meals and medical coverage to any players they take in.
And to think, they start the process at 13.
MLB and the Japan Major League have complexes down there seeking out talent. They're giving free instruction, housing, meals and medical coverage to any players they take in.
And to think, they start the process at 13.
quote:These games should exhibit strong pitching and defense. While good coaching will help with the adjustment to the wood bat, these players for the most part will be returning to aluminum at school.
There is very little "coaching" and almost no practices. Maybe they should exhibit strong defense and pitching, but they do not. The range of talent is very wide. That's about the nicest thing I could say.
No wonder those games are free.
quote:The other side of the question is time and age. If the average pro player takes five years to reach MLB skill levels, that player would be four years older than the kid signed out of high school or a foreign country most often.
The college player has a better foundation for the rest of his life than a high school signee. The high school signee has the advantage of applying those same five years at an earlier age.
Skill level plus potential, in that order, should be the determining factor. It is a better starting point than having more potential than skill.
A high school player, because of age would have more ceiling, more projection for the most part. Only college players who a team feels like can help the big club pretty quick get any, what is it you call it? life changing money!
I think you guys should do a study with your personal banker if you were to put $500,000 in the bank at 8%.
quote:MLB and the Japan Major League have complexes down there seeking out talent. They're giving free instruction, housing, meals and medical coverage to any players they take in.
Yet we left Legion baseball and Dixie ball to go pay 10,000+ grand a season to play select!
quote:Originally posted by Vance34:quote:MLB and the Japan Major League have complexes down there seeking out talent. They're giving free instruction, housing, meals and medical coverage to any players they take in.
Yet we left Legion baseball and Dixie ball to go pay 10,000+ grand a season to play select!
***thats about the amount of a decent 1st year scholarship!! None of us are guilty of that
...LOL *****or was that most of us*****
When you are talking about high school players - getting the opportunity to get a $500,000 signing bonus - you are talking about a very very small % of players.
If you are looking at it as purely a financial decision - the decision to sign or not sign becomes much more difficult once you start getting past the first 5 rounds.
IMO.
If you are looking at it as purely a financial decision - the decision to sign or not sign becomes much more difficult once you start getting past the first 5 rounds.
IMO.
As Alan Lomax, the great musicologist once said, "Our culture is turning us into a society of spectators."
quote:Originally posted by WillieBobo:
As Alan Lomax, the great musicologist once said, "Our culture is turning us into a society of spectators."
now thats to deep for most of us