MLB Playoff Race

When you say it like that it sounds like a lot of drama is in store, but really, NL West and AL East are the only divisions with races, which I guess is good for MLB as those are some big market teams.

In the AL East, dunno, I have not seen enough but I love the O's hitting and I can see the Bosox getting inspired by Ortiz's last season.  The only other sort of race is AL Central. I think Cleveland pulls away eventually and the Tigers miss out to the East also rans in the Wild Card race.  In the NL, the West loser is WC #1 and I say Pittsburg gets #2.

NL West, well I think the question there is whether the SFG are really the great the first half team we saw or really the wretched second half they have become.   And whether Kershaw comes back I suppose, though they've done fine without him.  My prediction is that it comes down to the final series between the two clubs, specifically to the penultimate Saturday 10/1 game at ATT.  Why?  Because I have tickets, of course!

I love the addition of another wild card, it really makes it interesting.

I got back to being a Marlin fan tbis year, and as much as I dislike Barry Bonds, he has done an awesome job with the hitters. I am also a bigtime Mattingly fan and Ichiro too, who actually is the best example of a true baseball professional in every sense of the word.

Things were going smoothly until Stanton got hurt again, but they seem to be olding their own.

Personally, I dont think it really matters, things have to go pretty badly for the Cubs NOT to make the playoffs.

There was a great headline in the paper the other day ...

"Sox, Jays and O's in race to hide their flaws"

For the last month I've told people the only way the Sox are making the playoffs is if enough other teams stink worse. What could happen is a lot of these teams beat each other and one blows right up the middle into the playoffs real hot. I'm thinking of the Royals.

Can't forget the Royals. They're surging like crazy, have lots of pitching coming back I the next week or so (including Wade Davis) and have 19 of their last 31 games at home. Not to mention seven more games vs. Cleveland.

cabbagedad posted:

Less than five weeks left, only about 30 games remain and there are still 18 teams within 3 1/2 games of a playoff spot!!!!  This could be good.

Who's gonna falter and who's gonna surge coming down the stretch?

.. and just like that, Pittsburgh, Miami and Seattle falter quickly to make it "less good".

Astros are "surging" (won 13 of 17 I think).  Bregman and Guriel have greatly added to Springer, Altuve and Correa. Gattis is on a hot streak.  But Keuchel is out the next couple starts with "shoulder fatigue and tendonitis", McCullers has been out for a month and is soft tossing on flat ground.  I just can't see a starting rotation with Fister, Fiers, McHugh and rookies pulling off a run and passing Detroit and Baltimore.

But sweep the Cubs this weekend and who knows?

astros are a very good Team but with all the pitching injuries it is just not really their year. still they have a Chance to make the PS.

Al east is still exiting blue jays got swept and now are one behind the red sox. both are really good Teams.

seems like the dodgers are pulling away from the giants now.

Dominik85 posted:

astros are a very good Team but with all the pitching injuries it is just not really their year. still they have a Chance to make the PS.

Al east is still exiting blue jays got swept and now are one behind the red sox. both are really good Teams.

 

seems like the dodgers are pulling away from the giants now.

The Jays and Sox are not really good teams. For pennant contenders they are very inconsistent, flawed teams.

RJM posted:

Dominik85 posted:

astros are a very good Team but with all the pitching injuries it is just not really their year. still they have a Chance to make the PS.

Al east is still exiting blue jays got swept and now are one behind the red sox. both are really good Teams.

 

seems like the dodgers are pulling away from the giants now.

The Jays and Sox are not really good teams. For pennant contenders they are very inconsistent, flawed teams.

Well the red sox lead the league in runs scored, their offense is really explosive. their pitching is not great but with Price and porcello they have two really good guys plus they got wright and pomeranz.

the Team is not a juggernaut but their run differential actually says they are a Little unlucky, their pythagoran record is even better than their actual record.

blue jays are good too, very good Rotation and excellent defense. their offense is good to (4th in the league) albeit not as dominant as last year. they slightly underperformed their run differential too.

They are not the cubs who are head and shoulders above the rest but probably right behind them.

Dominik85 posted:

 

seems like the dodgers are pulling away from the giants now.

Better yet the Giants are falling away from the Dodgers ...

What an epic collapse! You can just see the Giant nation's collective sphincter getting tighter and tighter ... 

I really like how the Dodgers and Cubs are building their franchises for the long haul. One of the things I learned watching my son's college program is that to win championships you have to keep knocking on the door. Playoff baseball is so fickle that a bad bounce here or there can take you out of a short series, and to win you just have to keep making the playoff's.  The Giant's over the past 6 years would be a prime example of this. 

Assuming it plays out this way the Cub/Dodger series could be the first of many in the coming years. 

Dominik85 posted:

RJM posted:

Dominik85 posted:

astros are a very good Team but with all the pitching injuries it is just not really their year. still they have a Chance to make the PS.

Al east is still exiting blue jays got swept and now are one behind the red sox. both are really good Teams.

 

seems like the dodgers are pulling away from the giants now.

The Jays and Sox are not really good teams. For pennant contenders they are very inconsistent, flawed teams.

Well the red sox lead the league in runs scored, their offense is really explosive. their pitching is not great but with Price and porcello they have two really good guys plus they got wright and pomeranz.

the Team is not a juggernaut but their run differential actually says they are a Little unlucky, their pythagoran record is even better than their actual record.

blue jays are good too, very good Rotation and excellent defense. their offense is good to (4th in the league) albeit not as dominant as last year. they slightly underperformed their run differential too.

They are not the cubs who are head and shoulders above the rest but probably right behind them.

Wright is out for the season. Their bullpen sucks. Storm an and Dickey have stunk this year. The Jays hitting has been inconsistant. These are two teams struggling to get to 90 wins. Even 90'wins is not a great team.

As a Sox fan - I agree neither the Sox or Jays are particularly "that good" or consistent. Not sure I agree that to be a great team means 90+ wins. I think both will be "battle tested" considering the AL East has 4 teams in the WC race. If you check the expanded standings only the Tigers, White Sox, and Mariners have a winning record vs AL East. Tough to get 90 when you beat each other up regularly. Teams that get 90, 100 wins and coast aren't always battle tested come playoff time.

Anyway, this weekend it's Sox/Jays and Tigers/O's - the 4 teams (essentially) at the top of the WC standings are all playing each other.  Astros v Cubs and Yanks vs. Rays...  Good stuff!

there really is only one flawless Team this year and that is the cubs. all the other contenders have their strengths and weaknesses. the Indians look pretty balanced but they are also enjoying a couple really unexpected surges by hitters, basically everyone is having a great year.

dodgers also have great depth but I feel their Rotation is solid but lacks really good pitchers behind kershaw (who is injured right now).

The Red Sox have an awful bullpen. It's hard for a team to win when they can't close out games. A team can blast their way into the post season. But they can't blast their way through it.

Dominik85 posted:

there really is only one flawless Team this year and that is the cubs. all the other contenders have their strengths and weaknesses. the Indians look pretty balanced but they are also enjoying a couple really unexpected surges by hitters, basically everyone is having a great year.

dodgers also have great depth but I feel their Rotation is solid but lacks really good pitchers behind kershaw (who is injured right now).

Indians are balanced with one big exception -- the catchers -- who suck rotten eggs offensively.  Only super easy out in their lineup is when they get to catcher -- no matter which one it is.  (including Gomes when he wasn't on the DL)

Plus Tomlin started out like gangbusters but the league has caught up with him.   So their 5th starter is a question mark down the stretch.  Tomlin has been moved to the pen.  They have enough of a lead that the 5th starter may not matter with so few games left.   And you don't need 5 once the playoffs come.  So if your number 5 is going to implode, this is about as good a time as any, especially with rosters expanded and more bullpen arms available to help out. 

I don't ever remember a season when seemingly every top three or four rotation guy from every team goes through an injury or major performance drop off (fatigue?) during the second half of the season.  I know it's not uncommon but this is crazy.  Who is going to have two healthy front line guys and a closer at the end?  That will be your winner, I think. 

I'm a Tribe fan... of course their rotation was supposed to be their strength and it is but all have gone through a major funk in the past few months.  Fortunately, not all at once.  Sluggerdad, I don't know if we could say the league caught up with Tomlin... he's been around for quite a while and everyone knows his game.  He just, at one point, lost the ability to consistently hit his spots which, of course was his primary strength.

I'm a long-time Jays fan, and think the observations are correct here on them.  The starting pitching has been very good, especially Sanches/Happ/Estrada.  Stroman has been a bit inconsistent lately, but improved since a really tough stretch where he was being rocked.  You never know what you're getting with Dickey not only from game to game, but inning to inning.  The bullpen is a concern, but I feel pretty good about he backend, even though Grilli has faltered a couple of times.  Osuna is a solid closer, Benoit has been a nice pick-up, and a couple of good young guys.  The issue is a LH reliever, Cecil just hasn't had it this year after a phenomenal year last year.

The offense has scored a lot of runs, not like last year, but still near the top, as has been said.  They have been too inconsistent lately and this past week has been dreadful.  They have played the top teams well, so this series against Boston will be big.  They have the full team back together now, so we'll see how it plays out.

It has been a long time since 1993 so I am really enjoying being excited about the Jays at this time of year!

I'm hoping the Yankees make the wildcard spot.  They've improved as a team since Arod left, with those 3 young sluggers, but they're inconsistent and playing 3 games against the Dodgers isn't going to help.  Plus we have Boston, Toronto, and Baltimore, plus TB whom we're only 5-5 against.  

cabbagedad posted:

I don't ever remember a season when seemingly every top three or four rotation guy from every team goes through an injury or major performance drop off (fatigue?) during the second half of the season.  I know it's not uncommon but this is crazy.  Who is going to have two healthy front line guys and a closer at the end?  That will be your winner, I think. 

I'm a Tribe fan... of course their rotation was supposed to be their strength and it is but all have gone through a major funk in the past few months.  Fortunately, not all at once.  Sluggerdad, I don't know if we could say the league caught up with Tomlin... he's been around for quite a while and everyone knows his game.  He just, at one point, lost the ability to consistently hit his spots which, of course was his primary strength.

With Salazar sidelined, and Tomlin ineffective but forced back into the rotation, Clevinger not really stretched out or proven,  I think the Tribe rotation suddenly looks like much more of a question mark than anticipated.  

The cubs are just ridiculously good. One of the best offenses, best defense, best pitching. they are almost like a combination of the 2015 royals, blue jays and mets, that is a super Team.

not really a cubs fan but they are the only Team who deserve the ring this year. but of course in a short series anything can happen so their Overall Chance to win is still only 30% or so.

I highly suggest the Orioles not look behind them, as the Astros are winding up their lariat.

Since my last post Buchholz has nailed down the 3rd starter spot, Rodriguez has looked better Asa fourth. Six guys in the bullpen are pitching lights out. They're now up five with ten to go. Hopefully the Sox can clinch early enough to set up their post season rotation providing Price and Porcello the most possible starts. Now the Indians and Rangers aren't playing well for various reasons. Anything is possible. A wildcard contender that gets hot over the next ten days might be in a good position if they get by the wildcard game.

SluggerDad posted:

cabbagedad posted:

I don't ever remember a season when seemingly every top three or four rotation guy from every team goes through an injury or major performance drop off (fatigue?) during the second half of the season.  I know it's not uncommon but this is crazy.  Who is going to have two healthy front line guys and a closer at the end?  That will be your winner, I think. 

I'm a Tribe fan... of course their rotation was supposed to be their strength and it is but all have gone through a major funk in the past few months.  Fortunately, not all at once.  Sluggerdad, I don't know if we could say the league caught up with Tomlin... he's been around for quite a while and everyone knows his game.  He just, at one point, lost the ability to consistently hit his spots which, of course was his primary strength.

With Salazar sidelined, and Tomlin ineffective but forced back into the rotation, Clevinger not really stretched out or proven,  I think the Tribe rotation suddenly looks like much more of a question mark than anticipated.  

And now add that Carrasco is out for the duration and the Tribe looks like even more of a question mark.  But don't say that to any of their players.  Paul Hoynes, the  Plain Dealer's  beat writer for the Tribe  -- who is something of an old school dinosaur who could not  tell WHIP from  FIP from xFIP -- ragged on the teams chances and got pounded by a number of players on twitter for his skepticism. 

some bad luck by the Indians at the wrong time. if everyone was healthy they probably would have been the best Playoff Rotation by all AL Teams.

Now comining into the end of the season there isn't really an impressive AL Rotation left. Red sox and rangers are Kind off OK and blue jays solid (albeit sanchez running out of steam and nearing innings Limit) but not really a 1-4 really good Rotation.

the three NL Division winners probably all have a better Rotation albeit the nats have a big hit with the SS injury too.

Yeah the RS are winning against divisional foes which is good - games have been a bit ugly and the Sox have taken advantage of some "extra" opportunities (or outs). The "magic number" is 6 and given the schedule with the O's, Toronto, and Yanks all playing each other - it's unlikely any of them win out and Sox play < .300.

Playoffs will be very interesting given how it's usually pitching dominated. That potential Cubs v Dodgers NLCS could be a good one. The Nats didn't fare well against Cubs & Dodgers earlier this year...  On the other side, the Sox, Indians, and Rangers also played against each other much earlier. Indians have certainly been bit by that injury bug as of late which could cost them.

I find it all pretty interesting how minus steroids and HGH affects playoffs.

Tough month for the Jays so far, offense just fell off the map.  They've been a bit better the past week, but still not sure they are out of it.  Felix shut them down pretty good, so hoping that's just the case of running into a good pitcher.   I think the offense can come back, and they have a lot of streaky hitters, so maybe at the right time, though a risky bet.  The Jays rotation is solid, their starters have been good all year, just no big names.  The innings limit debate for Sanchez wasn't really a huge factor in the end, but it will be interesting to see how he handles it.  He changed his off-season routine this year, added a lot of strength, 20 lbs of muscle per reports, and his velocity is still there.  Still, it is a question mark of how he will  handle it.  Happ and Estrada have been good, bit of a rough patch for Estrada with some back issues, but he pitched well his last start so maybe on his way back.  The biggest question mark is the bullpen, a few have been consistently good, but doesn't go deep.  I think that is the likely downfall if there is one.

Red Sox have gotten hot at the right time, and will win the East going away.  If the Jays do make it and win the wild card, it will be a fun rematch against the Rangers(assuming they stay ahead of Cleveland).

Giants took one step closer to the biggest crater in recent baseball history. #dontlookatme Bumgardner really blew it two nights ago. I am a Dodger fan but really respect the Giants, but you can put a fork in them now.

I can't believe that Sunday will be the last time I listen to Vin Scully (live at least) 

It's an epic collapse alright, and Bum is pretty nutty, but it's hard to put too much blame on the starting pitching.  If MLB played by HS rules the Giants would have clinched already.  They just do not have anyone who can get outs in the 8th or 9th. Or score runs for that matter.

The NL wild card race would make for a great season of the TV show Survivor.  Which ever two are still standing or not fallen off by the last day of the season gets the luxury of playing each other just to be annihilated by the Cubs.

I'm still saying Cubs to win it all because they are the most complete team.  They have an AL style / quality offense with the best pitching in all of baseball.  Overall the NL pitching is way better than AL so when the Cubs (assuming they make it through to World Series) face an AL team they are going to do very well against them.

All that being said I've been a Cubs fan for around 30 years.  I readily admit my perspective is skewed and very proud of my bias towards them.

I nailed my Red Sox predictions a couple of months ago. I said with their pitching they won't win more than 86 games. Then I said Benintendi needed a month at AAA or he was bound to fail. Then I doubled down by saying he won't have any timing when he returns from his injury due to inactivity and inexperience. I did get my Moncada prediction correct. I to,d friends he whiffs too much in AA to be ready for MLB pitching.

Cubs are clearly the best team but a best of 7 series also involves a ton of luck. In the regular season you will occasionally see a 100 loss team sweeping a 100 win team so it is certainly possible that an 88 win team beats a 100 win team. Couple years ago giants sneaked into the wild card and won it all.

the Cubs can win it all and have the best chance of all teams but with the current  system no team has a higher chance than about 20-25 percent to win it all.

Sometimes the team with the best record hits a wall facing the wild card team that stampeded into the playoffs. For a while the Royals looked like they would fit the mold. But in both league nin of the wild card prospects are setting the world on fire at this point. None of them are better then 6-4 in the last ten. In fact, I believe the Red Sox are the only team in baseball better than 6-4 in the last ten.

It's a hell of a pennant race. Three of the five teams in contention for the AL wild card spots lost tonight (Sat.). Two of the three NL contenders for wild card spots lost.

Dodgers clinch on Vin Scully's last home game, with Charlie Culberson walk off in bottom of 10. This team has a similar feel to the 1988 team, they may not have anyone who dominates (other than Kershaw) but they are very deep 1-25 and it seems like every night it is someone else who helps them win. Could be the one team who can give the Cubs trouble. 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/...0925-snap-story.html

The Wild Card races are really hot...The Nats vs Dodgers should be a really high level series too.

In the AL the Wild Card team who comes out of the game has a legit shot at the World Series I think...

Here comes October!!!!!!!

Well they don't call it the Wild Card for nothing.

How about Ty Blach today?  Has to be one of the great clutch performances ever by a rookie making his first MLB start.

Man -- I hope the Giants figure it out...  pitching and defense wins.

Wish my father was hear to see the playoffs, he loved his Mets.