Moneyball: should prospects work on working walks?

No.  Walks will not get someone noticed or into pro baseball.  Hitters need to show they can hit before plate discipline becomes a factor in their evaluation.

baseball is a crazy game, my sons coaches are after him to be more aggressive earlier in the count...and he isn't shy about it now. Basically hit the first good fastball you see because for the most part it may be the last one you see in an AB if you are behind in the count. I thought he was already following that advice but apparently they want more  of it.

Feels like a false dichotomy to me.

Personally,  I think  high walk rate, low k rate, and high LD  rates  (which have the greatest chance of turning into hits, including X-base hits, even if not dingers)  are the joint  by product of the same thing --   a good approach at the plate and a good swing.  

For  guys, who haven't yet reached  their full man strength,  they should focus on putting good swings on good pitches to hit.  Power will come. 

If you focus on putting a good swing on a good pitch to hit,  you will be hunting pitches to drive early in the count and also when your are ahead in the count.   If you get a pitch to drive, you should go at it with an aggressive swing.  You should want to punish the ball.   Often enough, good things will follow.  Not always, of course, since on the offensive side baseball is a game of a massive number of failures.

But don't  go chasing pitches that you cannot drive, especially when you are ahead in the count -- unless you are the second coming of Vlad the Impaler -- who could drive any pitch he could possibly reach.

Sure, when  the count turns against you,  you gotta expand the zone.  You gotta be able to fight off tough pitches or you are toast.   If you are the kind of hitter who can fight off tough pitches with a degree of regularity,    you will get both your fair share of walks and your fair share of hits, even when the pitcher has an intrinsic advantage.   

Sure the pitcher will get you out at times.   If  he can spot that nasty breaking ball either when he's got the count in his favor or when you're sitting dead red for one reason or another, he will get lots of hitters out.   Personally,  I love pitchers with enough control over their breaking ball that they can throw it in like 3-2 counts and make the hitter look helpless.  Also love pitchers with  great deception that makes the spin of the ball really hard to pick up.

But the thing is,  don't get yourself out.  Don't go hoping for a walk either.  Seize  your opportunities to hammer a pitch, when a pitch is there to be hammered.  But let pitches that you cannot drive go, especially when you are ahead in the count.  Fight like hell to extend at bats when you are down in the count.  

 Walks, a dearth of K's, and plethora of hits will follow.   No need to choose. 

Last spring my son hit .452 but his avg pitch count per AB was under 5.
Then he gets to summer ball and his travel ball coach is all about quality at bats and wants him to go deeper in the counts. Go figure.

CmassRHPDad posted:

Last spring my son hit .452 but his avg pitch count per AB was under 5.
Then he gets to summer ball and his travel ball coach is all about quality at bats and wants him to go deeper in the counts. Go figure.

Too much either/or thinking it sounds like to me.  If you get a pitch that you can hammer,  you hammer it,  whenever it comes,   early in the count or late in the count.   Why set out to extend the AB?  When the pitcher gets ahead, then and only then, is the (secondary) goal to extend the AB.   

A Quality At Bat means many different things.  If a hitter hits 3 line drives to the SS while only seeing 3 pitches, that is 3 QABs for me.

Again, we are talking about evaluation for pro baseball.  No pro scout has submitted a players after watching him hit and said "Wow...he may not be able to hit but he can sure draw a walk."  Without the hit skill, the plate discipline is irrelevant.

redbird5 posted:

A Quality At Bat means many different things.  If a hitter hits 3 line drives to the SS while only seeing 3 pitches, that is 3 QABs for me.

Again, we are talking about evaluation for pro baseball.  No pro scout has submitted a players after watching him hit and said "Wow...he may not be able to hit but he can sure draw a walk."  Without the hit skill, the plate discipline is irrelevant.

My point is that they are not unrelated things, but correlated things,  not perfectly correlated, but correlated.

SluggerDad posted:

redbird5 posted:

A Quality At Bat means many different things.  If a hitter hits 3 line drives to the SS while only seeing 3 pitches, that is 3 QABs for me.

Again, we are talking about evaluation for pro baseball.  No pro scout has submitted a players after watching him hit and said "Wow...he may not be able to hit but he can sure draw a walk."  Without the hit skill, the plate discipline is irrelevant.

My point is that they are not unrelated things, but correlated things,  not perfectly correlated, but correlated.

I wasn't addressing your posts.

If you can hit, you do not sit.  Needs a re-definition

redbird5 posted:

SluggerDad posted:

redbird5 posted:

A Quality At Bat means many different things.  If a hitter hits 3 line drives to the SS while only seeing 3 pitches, that is 3 QABs for me.

Again, we are talking about evaluation for pro baseball.  No pro scout has submitted a players after watching him hit and said "Wow...he may not be able to hit but he can sure draw a walk."  Without the hit skill, the plate discipline is irrelevant.

My point is that they are not unrelated things, but correlated things,  not perfectly correlated, but correlated.

I wasn't addressing your posts.

I was addressing this comment of yours, though:

"No.  Walks will not get someone noticed or into pro baseball.  Hitters need to show they can hit before plate discipline becomes a factor in their evaluation." 

Dominik85 posted:

Generally the saying is that you can't walk to the show and often lower level walks don't translate to MLB unless you have power but more and more teams are loading up on high walk hitters and they even look for walk rates in college ball. 

The As are most famous for it but the Astros, Dodgers and Cubs and other teams also have started to load up patient hitting prospect, some of them with fringy hitting tools.

is patience the new 6th tool? Or is big league walks more a combination from being feared and not chasing to many balls out of the zone and lower level patience means little for walking against elite pitchers?

 The old saying was that you get toolsy hitters and they learn patience later but the experience shows that free swinging low minor hitters rarely learn patience and walk rates usually only decline above A ball ( although there are some exceptions), it seems to be hard to learn patience as an adult hitter.

on the other hand there are A ball walk machines with limited power, who don't translate their walks to high minors because guys who hit 11 bombs a year usually don't get walked a lot by MLB pitchers because they rather throw a couple down the pipe than giving up a walk to a singles hitter.

Baseball is a game of hitting a pitched ball.  But if one can't get a ball pitched in the strike zone  that a batter is supposed to swing at, then taking a walk and getting on base is a good thing.  Swinging at bad pitches can result in getting on base too and most often it results in singles, which is really no different from taking a walk.  Patience in getting a pitch that one can drive hard is what tends to produce productivity.   And "productivity" is was really counts and why "power" is looked for rather than someone who's good at drawing walks.  Power is only as good as it will be productive too.  This is why just looking at things like BA's or OBP's isn't enough as a measure of productivity.  One of the best stats for productivity is the OPS number, which will of course include the number of walks along with a batter's ability to hit with power.  Walking and hitting just singles just isn't going to draw interest. . . unless one's BA is something like .900.  

So basically wait for a fat pitch to hit with less than 2 strikes but not specifically try to work the count or try to work walks?

There are a lot of very, very, VERY good hitters out there, and the MLB scouting community gets to see all of these excellent hitters. And hitting is a high priority...not walking. Now if there are two equally talented hitters, and player x has a better concept of the striking zone than player y, then x gets the square.

Knowledge of the striking zone is desired, but not nearly as great as the ability to hit, hit with power, control the barrel through the zone, etc.

"You can't walk your way off the island."

Too many good hitters are ruined, when they are told to get deeper in the count. They become head cases. Reason I never wanted my kid to lead off.

Everyday Dad posted:

Too many good hitters are ruined, when they are told to get deeper in the count. They become head cases. Reason I never wanted my kid to lead off.

Getting deeper into the count is not an end in itself.  

The point is rather that both  deep count and solid contact result from pretty much the same basic process and approach.  

Also what counts as a drivable pitch varies with hitter and pitcher.  There is no simple formula.   Some guys have amazing eyesight,  and can pick up the spin of the ball right out the pitchers hand.  If you can spot that's it's a breaking ball right away, then that too can be a drivable pitch.  Some pitchers have amazing deception and are really hard to pick up, though. 

Dominik85 posted:

So basically wait for a fat pitch to hit with less than 2 strikes but not specifically try to work the count or try to work walks?

I would say "a pitch you can drive."   But defining that is going to be somewhat hitter specific and somewhat pitcher specific.   

Dominik85 posted:

So basically wait for a fat pitch to hit with less than 2 strikes but not specifically try to work the count or try to work walks?

For the most part, yes.  But when I coach, I wouldn't use the word "wait".  I don't much care for the idea of "waiting."  I'd rather have a hitter "look" for a pitch to hit.  And that means the very first pitch could be the one the hitter's looking for and should try to drive it.  So, a batter should really never be trying to walk . . . the batter is always trying to hit the ball well.  A "good at-bat"  would be where a batter has drawn something like 9 or 10 pitches and either walked, got a hit or even got out; but he was trying to hit the ball well, not trying to walk.

Truman posted:

Dominik85 posted:

So basically wait for a fat pitch to hit with less than 2 strikes but not specifically try to work the count or try to work walks?

For the most part, yes.  But when I coach, I wouldn't use the word "wait".  I don't much care for the idea of "waiting."  I'd rather have a hitter "look" for a pitch to hit.  And that means the very first pitch could be the one the hitter's looking for and should try to drive it.  So, a batter should really never be trying to walk . . . the batter is always trying to hit the ball well.  A "good at-bat"  would be where a batter has drawn something like 9 or 10 pitches and either walked, got a hit or even got out; but he was trying to hit the ball well, not trying to walk.

I like to say that I want you In "hunt" mode.   Because 'hunt' is active,  'wait' is passive.    

I also like to say that the attitude should be 'yes, yes, yes ... no."  rather than "no, no, no....yes."    i.e be cocked and ready to hit on every pitch.   not "waiting" to decide to hit.   

But being in hunt mode, is not the same as having no plate discipline.  not at all.  

In most cases, the very best hitters have the qualities needed.

So pitch recognition, patience, discipline, educated guessing, self knowledge, all go hand in hand with aggressiveness and physical hitting ability. Most of the best hitters combine patience and aggressivness.  That is exactly what Barry Bonds learned to do.  I know some claim it was all due to steroids, and maybe that contributed a lot.  But he also learned how to combine patience without giving up any aggressiveness.

There is no question that walks help win or lose games.  Just ask any pitching coach.  Those walks mean more at every level.  But you can't reach the higher levels unless you show that you can hit. And you can't walk if the pitcher throws strikes. And you can't hit very well if your swinging at pitches outside the strike zone.  The best pitchers love to face the hitters that chase.

I advocated that my son not be afraid to take pitches that were tough to get good swings on early in the count. 

The approach that worked best for him was to go to the plate with a 2-0 mentality.  He would look fastball away since that is what you get about 75% of the time.  If the pitcher left it over the plate swing away and take your best cut.  But if it is at the edge or off the plate or he runs one in then take.

Bottom line try to eliminate options and focus on getting a specific pitch in a spot you are looking for.  It helped that he was a good enough hitter that with 2 strikes he could expand, defend the plate and go the other way and be dangerous. 

First ball/fastball is a reasonable approach as long as it is balanced with making sure it is a decent pitch to hit.  Swinging at fastballs for the sake of swinging at a fastball is a bad idea IMO.

luv baseball posted:

I advocated that my son not be afraid to take pitches that were tough to get good swings on early in the count. 

The approach that worked best for him was to go to the plate with a 2-0 mentality.  He would look fastball away since that is what you get about 75% of the time.  If the pitcher left it over the plate swing away and take your best cut.  But if it is at the edge or off the plate or he runs one in then take.

Bottom line try to eliminate options and focus on getting a specific pitch in a spot you are looking for.  It helped that he was a good enough hitter that with 2 strikes he could expand, defend the plate and go the other way and be dangerous. 

First ball/fastball is a reasonable approach as long as it is balanced with making sure it is a decent pitch to hit.  Swinging at fastballs for the sake of swinging at a fastball is a bad idea IMO.

I agree. You shouldn't swing at a pitch on the "black" 0-0 but if it is a fat one hit it. However there are coaches who generally discourage first pitch or even first strike hitting. Many little league coaches still say wait until the pitcher has thrown a strike.

however I think even in MLB there is now a reverse trend, some top hitters like Donaldson for example swing a lot at the first pitch if it is a good one because that often is the best pitch and MLB pitchers now are trained to throw a fastball down the pipe 0-0 to get ahead. 

However there are still some hitters who almost never swing at the first pitch, I read that mauer has swung at only 10 percent of first pitches over his career.

Coaches/scouts aren't looking for hitters who walk. It's why they are called hitters, not walkers. A coach will notice a smart hitter. It's smart not to swing at a tough pitch when up in the count. But a coach will shake his head if a hitter he's scouting consistantly takes 2-0 pitches down the pipe.

Keep in mind every hitter at the next level was a top hitter at the previous level. At each level the hitter adapts. If looking for walks becomes the next adaptation it's the last level that hitter will be playing.

Note: The Red Sox were early adapters to analytics. Now they are saying they came to rely on them too much. They are now looking for balance.

I don't think we can compare hitting approaches for LL with the higher levels of baseball.  In LL, most pitchers have a hard time throwing strikes.  Since a LL team is trying to win, it's only right to coach the hitters to "wait until the pitcher has thrown a strike."  And it can be a very productive approach . . . at the LL levels.  Unfortunately for many of these LL kids as they move up into HS, they tend to bring this approach with them and the HS coach has to re-train them to a better and  more advanced hitting approach.

Speaking in generalities since this is so very much a general, but interesting discussion, I agree with others who say getting walks won't get you noticed.

Getting a good pitch to hit and usually making solid contact goes a LOT farther than a walk-heavy OBP. Of course, a lead off and bottom of the order hitters will probably get more of a pass for qABs and walks. But some coaches despise their hitters looking for walks, and let's be honest--many umpires do too if it become obvious. Yes, I know all umpires should call a consistent SZ but at least the HS level, I see plenty of situational SZs that expand to help struggling pitchers and punish bat-grafted-to-the-shoulder hitters. That's just my experience, purely anecdotal.

True that walks are not what scouts and recruiters want to see. True they are looking for hitters.  but your not likely to show much hitting ability if you're chasing pitches outside the strike zone.  The best hitters look for their pitch and they don't chase a lot.  There are plenty of opportunities to show hitting ability.  Once you recognize someone is an exceptional hitter you start looking at all his other attributes.  I would rather see a good hitter take a walk on four pitches that are not strikes, than see him swinging at those same pitches.  Actually sometimes a hitter can stand out with his approach even without commiting to certain pitches.

PGStaff posted:

True that walks are not what scouts and recruiters want to see. True they are looking for hitters.  but your not likely to show much hitting ability if you're chasing pitches outside the strike zone.  The best hitters look for their pitch and they don't chase a lot.  There are plenty of opportunities to show hitting ability.  Once you recognize someone is an exceptional hitter you start looking at all his other attributes.  I would rather see a good hitter take a walk on four pitches that are not strikes, than see him swinging at those same pitches.  Actually sometimes a hitter can stand out with his approach even without commiting to certain pitches.

Right PGstaff. 

too many people dealing in false dichotomies here.   Plate discipline not only leads to walks, it leads to hard hit balls as well.