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We have discussed "Moneyball" and the impact it has had on hitting stats and scouting for certain colleges and MLB organizations. In this thread, I would like to garner some opinions about pitching stats from High School games for the College Recuiter and from High School and College Games for the MLB Scout.

Is there one or more pitching stats that you think might lead one to believe that the pitcher had a good chance for success at the next level. Put another way, what stat tells you most about a pitcher? ERA? WHIP? K/W ratio? K's per inning? Something else? [Velocity does not count here].

TW344
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I like K/IP K/BBs and WHIP as a starting point.

I also have created one that is simply baserunners allowed/batters faced which probably has a name somewhere out there but I haven't found a source. What I like about it is that it removes all judgement - the guy got on or he didn't. What it doesn't do is remove the dependence on the defense as well as the parks played in.

ERA is too dependent upon scorekeeper's judgement. Runs Allowed without the E is a better measure than ERA from my viewpoint.

Pitching stats in general are an area that need a lot of work - the SABR guys need to get busy!!!
I have never seen anyone keep this stat, but I would like to see batting avg., slugging and on-base avg. for pitchers AFTER they put men on base.

I see so many pitchers who are mechanically well trained who simply cannot keep their composure and perform once a few little things go wrong.

I like a guy who doesn't panic if the leadoff man gets a double, or perhaps even a better test, a 2-base error. Because I don't care who you are or how much stuff you've got, you have to deal with these things to succeed. Can you keep that run from scoring? Can you clamp a bad inning with only 1-2 runs, or does the coach have to come get you because you come unglued?

Most folks judge these things subjectively. I suppose in the end at high levels it all comes out in the ERA wash in the long run. But as you are evaluating young pitchers in teen travel and high school ball, you will often see a kid on a bad team who shows some real bulldog tendencies.
I'm not so big on K/IP because often the pitchers with the most K's may not be the most effective as they continue to progress.

A good ground ball pitcher is more likely to go the distance, because his pitch count will be lower. But he will never have a lot of K's.

Percentage of first pitch strikes is important, as CR pointed out.

A properly calculated ERA (emphasis on properly) is still a good measure.

MD had a good concept, in how pitchers do once someone has reached base. A little tough to measure.

Mental toughness, according to Tommy Lasorda, is the one single thing that a MLB pitcher must have. And that can't be measured by stats.
OPS against. There is a higher correlation for OPS (On base + slugging) and runs scored than batting average and on-base. Therefore, I would turn it around and look for OPS against.

If you can find a pitcher that can control the running game once an offensive player hits a single, then you have a pitcher that is hard to score against.

Look at extra base hits as a percentage of total hits given up (15-20%), low walk ratio and a 1.15-1.30 time to the plate with an average to above average pick-off move and you have a nightmare to score against.
According to bbscout, best pitchers stat is one that gets hitters out. Big Grin

PG posted this awhile ago in another thread and I do beleive that some pitching coaches might agree.

JMO

Posted December 05, 2005 12:45 AM By PG Staff
"Once a pitcher shows he has draft potential, certain stats are more valuable than others. Sometimes the lack of certain numbers can create negative concerns more than good numbers actually helping. (if that makes any sense)

Some of these stats include those that everyone is mentioning here. Another important stat is GB vs FB outs. A pitcher getting a large % of his outs on ground balls vs fly balls is a big plus in most cases. Ground ball pitchers are in demand, especially if they have average or better MLB velocity. It usually means the pitcher has a good sinking fastball or split finger and a good breaking ball. The sinker is a big pitch in professional baseball these days. Nearly every MLB pitcher you see with an average or below average fastball has a real good sinker".
Last edited by TPM

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