Northern Region Pre-Season Forecast

Patriot picks are fine. West Springfield is no doubt the #1 going in. Lake Braddock graduated a lot, but still have Ryan Lindemuth and Brian Derner back to build on. But tradition, offseason work and all, losing Shane Halley, Jim Buckley, Brian Dailey, Jordan Tiamson, Shannon Mark, and Steven Lindemuth is a lot for any team to just insert some underclassmen.

National -- Yorktown, yes.

As for the Liberty, I'd rate Langley ahead of Stone Bridge. I'm not sure if Stone Bridge has a returning pitcher who pitched a varsity inning last year. Even if they do, it wasn't many. Yes, they have Jonny Bladel, Michael Prince, and Thompson, but they fall offensively also. These guys were helped immensely in the lineup by Mike Stancik and Brad? Wheaton, so top to bottom they are weaker at bat.

Oakton in Concorde? Unless they've had some players move into the school -- I don't think so. Here's what I posted (thread below) last week about the Concorde.

Concorde is somewhat toss up in 2009 vs 2008. Many top seniors graduated and Concorde sent many kids to top D-1 programs including 3 SEC (Mike/Matt Snyder, Davis Hall), 2 ACC (Keith Werman and Albert Rodriguez), 1 Conf USA (Pat Somers), 1 Big East (Kevin Wager), 1 CAA (Chris Yates), 1 A-10 (Brett Williams), and 1 Ivy (Max Langford). Several other fine players moved on to a variety of D2 (Keith Morrisroe), D3 (Conner Madden, Eric Rabung, Pat Moore, Bart Reese, Alan Brownell), and JUCO programs (Ian McNicol). I'm sure I missed a few who may be still playing ball in college such as Westfield's Tommy Fenyak and Richie Brown and Fairfax Carlos Perez.

Needless to say, that's a lot of talent and what's left lacks the top end quality but is very balanced from top to bottom.

My ranking, somewhat based on the most returning starters and strongest pitching, would be:
- Robinson (led by Michael Delbuono - Western Carolina, Brandon Kuter - George Mason, and Chris McCloud - Lafayette?)
- Centreville (led by Ryan Ashooh jr - UVA, Cole Campbell jr the shortstop - , and several others who started as sophs)
- Chantilly (led by John Colella - Holy Cross, Jordan Johnson, Danny Bates, Brian King, Roger Strittmatter).
- Westfield (led by Ryan Williams - William and Mary, Kevin Reardon, Tommy Verbanic, Ryan Sweet, Hoover, Scoville)
- Herndon (led by Zach Leach - UNC Greensboro, Travis Medina)
- Fairfax (led by ?)

and last but not least Oakton (led by Luke Willis - soph and other young guys).

Note that Oakton also lost their coach, so, I would expect them to be down for a bit.

The key will be who steps in to fill starting roles and who gets better as the season progresses.

Isn't Adam Henne a senior this year for Oakton? He looked very good this fall playing for the Tidewater Orioles. I expect he will be the leader of that team and should supply a solid bat, anchor the infield, and provide quality innings on the mound. I do not believe the cupboard is bare just yet

Yes, seniors Adam Henne and Bobby McCormack are 3 year starters. Both are fine players who will be the anchors for Oakton. I should have included them in my list of Oakton players. The question is can these guys step into the production spots of the lineup and carry a much weaker overall lineup than past Oakton teams.

As I said, Concorde is much more balanced in 2009 than past years given all the graduated players, so they may not fall as far.

I pretty much agree with Spartan81. West Sprinfield is going to be tough to beat in the Patriot District. I do think Lake Braddock will be pretty good although young. With Derner, Lindemuth and Towns returning, they will be very competitive.
I think he makes good points in the Concorde District and agree with his picks. I think McLean will be tough and probably win their district. Don't know much about the National District.

Was Towns a freshman or soph last year? He looked real good in the 4 or 5 games I saw LB play.

Towns is a sophomore and Lindemuth a junior this year.

Anyone willing to share some more about Herndon?

How does the Stewart kid look? Is he a senior?

Spartan - Thanks for the insights. Braddock may give West Springfield a run but they will have to score runs against two tough pitchers. My rating of McLean was based on seeing them play Braddock tough in the Regionals last year with a lot of underclassmen. You are probably right about Stone Bridge - didn't realize they lost so many. Sounds like you think Langley may have more talent than SB and Madison. I agree too that the Concorde is wide open. My rating of Oakton was somewhat based a lot on the fact that they are always tough, but they too lost a lot of talent. I did hear that their coach is not really gone, he simply is taking on the assistant role and letting someone else handle the paperwork.

Anybody else want to weigh in on the Concorde - or any other district?

Here's some other thoughts for whatever they are worth:

-- Madison - I don't know much about them for 2009 but they've now been out of the regional finals for what, 3, maybe 4 years. Two of those were prevented by tough 2-1 losses in regional semi's to Oakton and last year they lost a tough first round regional game to Beal and South County. The whole Jeter playing/not playing/playing last year seemed to upset their chemistry a bit and the injury to Colin Flaherty impacted their overall lineup. That said, as always, they played tough and I would expect them to be tough again in 2009. I don't know much about their rising pitchers -- an area they've always had much depth.

-- Woodson -- they've been kinda quiet for the last few years after the monster years w/Biannucci+. Maybe they'll breakout a bit in 2009. Warren and his staff are too good for them to not compete at the highest level.

-- Langley's also has a new coach to go with some quality seniors in Joey Zarella (how's his health) and Chris Seivers. The injury to Foster Dunigan in 2008 was huge for them, as I think they would have potentially won their district with a healthy Foster anchoring the D, lineup, and occasionally closing. I believe the team grew in his absence, so we'll see if that carries over to 2009.

Most of my comments have focused on the players who've made noise at the varsity level already. Certainly that is the base that every team has to work with. But what will really make the difference are the seniors who may have been back ups in 2008 and the now juniors who played well at JV last year. Which of these kids that make successful transition to the starting varsity levels will really determine which teams pull ahead or rise from the middle of the pack into contention. Again, as I said in the thread below re Centreville, are Centreville's team with a mix of varsity experienced juniors going to be any better than Chantilly's mix of returning varsity seniors plus some strong athletes rising from last years JV team? The best predictor of that is probably who benefitted the most from summer ball, fall ball, and winter workouts where all these younger players have faced better competition than they might have last year as JVers.

So who are some potential kids that could have breakout 2009 varsity seasons that most haven't heard about? Here's a couple to start this off:

-- Chantilly -- Matt DeWitt and Adam Fridy are juniors who led Chantilly's successful JV team in 2008. Both are fine athletes who are in the starting lineup for Chantilly's top ranked basketball team this winter. Both are also hitting baseballs a couple of times a week to ready their batting strokes for spring. With the foundational skills and the experience of playing in front of big crowds/big games under their belt, I expect their transition to the varsity baseball field to be quick.

How about some more of these players to look for?

Shantzee, thanks. Maybe I was thinking about Cole McInturff from Westfield. He's one of several fast outfielders that Westfield will bring in 2009. While I'm at it, another player who could be big in 2009 from Westfield is Nick Garifo. If he's finally healthy after some very serious injuries, he could have a big year.

quote:

Anyone willing to share some more about Herndon?

I know a couple of kids that played for Herndon last year that are solid players other than Leach. Impellizeeri(sp)(jr) and Smestead (soph). If they have a couple of other players that have a good year, they could surprise.

I think mentioning Woodson as a potential dark horse is fair. They have some real talent at the sophomore level that will certainly help a couple talented Seniors. They could surprise some folks if SB and Madison have down years. They may still be a season away, but they will certainly give the Patriot a boost in toughness when they replace Hayfield next year.

NoVa,
I agree, Woodson has a lot of young pitchers that should be tough down the road.

how does LB look this yr.indian river playing them last yr. in state.

LB lost a lot of very talented seniors from last year. They have two infielders (3b & ss) and probably the most productive pitcher from last year returning. Compared with last year, they probably won't be as strong offensively. Those seniors could hit. The JV team was undefeated last year and LB has a very good coach, so I believe they will win their share of games. That said, I expect West Springfield to be the powerhouse in the Patriot District and in the Northern Region.

Mt Vernon may be better than anyone thinks. They return a ton of starters who are solid in alot of positions. They will lack pitching, I think, but Luke Sable, the new coach, has always produced winners (e.g., took his Juniors level Woodlawn team to the World Series in 2005, and alot of those kids are anchors on this team). Coach Sable played at Mt Vernon himself, played at GMU, and reached AAA ball in the Rangers organization. Coach Sable will make the absolute most of the talent available, and he will produce a winner. If they could find two top quality starters, they'd be in great shape.

I agree that West Springfield has the best team on paper this year.......by far. Not many teams boast an ACC pitcher and and SEC pitcher on the same staff! They should also hit well and have a ton of experience returning, so I look at them as a legit state contender.

I also like McLean in the Liberty (good pitching, lots of quality returning kids), and Yorktown in the National, although I cant say I know too much about that district. I'd go with Robinson in a tough Concorde race based on their depth of good pitching.

Some very astute observations. Particularly good insights regarding West Springfield, Lake Braddock and Mt. Vernon.

MV could definitely surprise if a bunch of the kids from the '05 World Series team are still together. We played them in the state tournament that year and they had lots of talent. Is Zach Quigley still at MV? He hit 2 of the longest home runs I have ever seen a 14 year old hit against us in '05.

Agree that WS will be awesome but I would never bet against LB. Last year they lost Halley (UVa) on the mound right before the season and still came within a whisper of a state championship. Other than Derner they may not have the studs WS has but they have no holes. LB coaches Rutherford and Askin coached my son's summer team and let me tell you they are special. Towns and Lindemuth are back on the left side of the infield. Both are terrific players--Towns is just a sophomore but by the time he's done he will be as good as anybody in Northern Virginia. Also, don't underestimate the kids coming up from the JV. Should be a fun year.

Shantzee--Slater is a good ball player and good kid. Wish him the best.

Jim Clark--Zack Quigley still kills the ball (he is a senior this year). When he hits it on the money spot, it will go 450. If he gets more consistent at making solid contact, he will have an awesome year. Mt Vernon has 4 or 5 core seniors (Quigley, Henry, Jones. . .) and 4 or 5 quality juniors (unfortunately, the Jarding twins moved to South Dakota after their frosh year, and that really hurts, but returning are Andrew Sable, Mike Murdock, Jim Woehrle. . . ).

For Mt Vernon, the issue will be pitching. No great #1 or #2. Alot of quality kids who will fight, but they will not have a shut down guy.

The earlier post about Rutherford was spot on. He is as good a coach as there is in NoVA. Now that Rowland has stepped down at Oakton, he might be the best. I'd never count LB out as long as he keeps developing the talent over there. They are one of only a few teams that I could see seriously challenging West Springfield this year in the NR.

What about South County? How do they look this year? They have been an excellent program under Luther since they opened that school.

Also, what does the Liberty look like? I noticed a few people (including myself) picked McLean to win, but I cant say that I know that much about them. I saw them lose to SB in the Liberty semis last year and LB in the regional tournament, and was very impressed with their pitching, but not so much with their offense. I also saw Woodson play once last year and they were not particulalry impressive, but it sounds like they were really young. I know SB lost a ton of seniors and Madison lost a lot of pitching, so McLean makes sense as a preseason favorite. I was just wondering if anyone had some insight on them or any of the other Liberty contenders. This district has some great rivalries and some very good coaches, but it seems like it's been somewhat down the past few years.

Mclean has a lot of talent coming back with their junior class. Fitzgerald and Buckley started as freshman. Beiro started last year as sophmore, and there were several other good underclassman last year. Woodson should be a good team if their young pitchers can come thru. The Mcgillicudy twins pitched well as freshman, and should get a lot more innings this year. I think they will have to depend on a couple of other young pitchers as well. They have some juniors that should do well. Breslin has started since he was a freshman, and Finnerty started as a sophmore. If transfer junior Connor Reilly throws a baseball anything like he throws a football, he will be a real asset. Weiznegger is back for his senior year.

I just noticed on the Paul VI Baseball website that PVI will scrimmage Langley, McLean, and Mount Vernon (as well as St. Albans). PVI may start the season 0-4 in scrimmages!

...or they just might go 4-0, not that it really matters when it comes to scrimmages Best of luck to all the teams this coming spring !

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...or they just might go 4-0, not that it really matters when it comes to scrimmages Best of luck to all the teams this coming spring !

LOL, I thought that might be coming. I hope Lance Veeder has a great year. He is a super kid. Good luck to all.

FYI Nathan Slater left LB and is at Lee.

Vabaseballfan: South County lost a lot of talented seniors last year. Their best pitcher Beal is playing pro ball, best hitter Frazier is trying to make the lineup at ODU, key players CF Bartlett and C Haas graduated. They return some talented players this year - P - Miller, and hitters Fitzgerald, Digby, and Jordan. I'm betting Jordan will lead the Region in HR's. They will also pull up a couple sophomores that will help.

That said, SC is thinner at P than they've been since they opened and replacing the sticks they lost will be tough. I still think they will be in the thick of the Patriot race with WS and LB. If I were betting, it will likely wind up being WS, LB, SC, TC.

BCB and Novabaseball, thanks for the info. BTW I agree Jordan is a stud hitter. I didnt realize he was back for another year! He can rake.

We haven't heard from a few of the teams that had very good seasons last year. Anyone want to give an assessment of TC? How about Langley or Robinson?

I did see Langley a few times last year. They return a lot of players but will have a new coach this year. Someone said earlier in this thread that Langley will be better than SB and that very well may be true. They should have a couple of quality pitchers led by Zarella and they have a good nucleus in the middle of the order led by Mahn and Sievers.

I would expect to see Langley in the thick of things all year in the Liberty.

I may have missed it in an earlier post, but are any of the kids from these teams being recruited to play baseball in college? Any pro prospects?

Most of the kids on this thread are either committed to a college or hoping to land somewhere from D-1 to D-3.

As for pro prospects right out of high school, maybe a Kent, although he is committed, but not aware of any others. Wahl has a year of growing after this year, so maybe he could keep progressing.

Nova, thanks for asking about TC. They will be young--no more than 2 seniors--and returning pitchers have probably logged a total of a dozen varsity innings. The good news is that they have some kids who can hit. The program is on the rise and more kids seem to be getting serious about summer ball and winter conditioning. Hopefully this team will improve as the season goes on and make some noise next season.

With regard to Langley don't forget Jack Mclindon. He's coming off a fine basketball season and is a terrific middle infielder (Davidson signee I think).

Is there a reason that South County is ruled out of the Patriot District? They will definitley give West Springfield and definitley Lake Braddock a run for the title...and if you think that Jordan will lead the region in HR's...you may be mistaken...Digby has hit close to 20 HR's on various teams this past year.

Liberty comments-
McLean is the pre-season pick. Lots of guys with varsity experience coming back. Solid coach. Team plays very solid D.

Langley is a wild card. Good talent with a new coach. We'll see how they gel.

Madison- tough to figure out. By their historically high standards, last year was a down year plus they lost some key guys. But I never count Pudge out. He seems to figure out a way to get the best out of what he has.

Stone Bridge- The key to their fortunes will be pitching. I am guessing 95% of their innings from last came from 3 guys who are graduated (Weaver, Basso and Palmer). Fialdini pitched some on varsity both soph and jr year. He will need to have a strong season for the Bulldogs to challenge. SB also loses the bats of Stancik, Wheaton, Irwin.

Woodson could be in the mix for a region berth this year. Time will tell.

I know some mention Marshall in play for top4. But I really don't see Marshall, South Lakes and TJ challenging for a top spot.

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Is there a reason that South County is ruled out of the Patriot District? They will definitley give West Springfield and definitley Lake Braddock a run for the title...and if you think that Jordan will lead the region in HR's...you may be mistaken...Digby has hit close to 20 HR's on various teams this past year.

Slippery Rock, I don't think anyone ruled out South County's team in the Patriot District. Do you know any more about South County's team other than Digby?

Other than the 2 power hitters, SC is senior heavy at every position. The outfield is very strong including Digby, Michaels, and Adams. There maybe some changes in the infield with some young sophomore talent coming up. Pitching is the only position without depth....Coaching is as strong as ever...

Unless South County can come up with some arms, they won't be in the mix. West Springfield has tremendous pitching and Lake Braddock isn't bad either. That's what wins baseball games...not "power hitters".

everyone has there own opinion...Do you have a crystal ball? if you knew anything about the kids playing, you'd know that alot of them have played against or with each other for 10 years...nobody is intimidated by anyone from these 3 schools! Anything can happen.