November through May

Who knows with COVID! Under normal circumstances ...

For seniors, with some unique exceptions for D1 and D2 the offers are on the table. If a new offer comes late it’s likely B and C didn’t accept. You’re the D option. The A option is already committed.

Choice D3s are told to apply ED with help from the coach. Others are told if they get accepted (on their own) they’re on the team. It may be a roster of 40+ with four years of five, six choice recruits. 

For a junior he’s probably holding out for a mid major D1 offer before committing to a D2. The lower end D1’s will still be recruiting summer after junior year. A late bloomer pitcher is always welcome at any level even if it means some recruit gets screwed by the numbers.

@RJM posted:

For a junior he’s probably holding out for a mid major D1 offer before committing to a D2. The lower end D1’s will still be recruiting summer after junior year. 

 

I could see that situation. Actually, since my son is a junior, I can tell you what I see now. 

I see the 2022s going mid-major D1 or higher committing now or they are already committed. We saw a bunch of them coming off the board in August and September. And, it seems like those who are more likely to be lower end D1 (or hopeful of maybe mid-major D1 still) are uncommitted and waiting to see what happens with offers (and the impact on the process due to COVID-19, school funding issues and the NCAA giving everyone an extra year, etc.).

But, for those "waiting" kids, if they have done their homework and looked at all the possible landing spots within their personal D1 options, and eliminated most of them because of "whatever" (price, strength of program/conference, lack of interest in him from school), and they have an offer from a D2 that is an excellent opportunity, do they commit now even though it's 9 to 12 months earlier than "normal"? Or do they continue to wait because it's not the norm to commit D2 until the September of your senior year?

Given the current situation, I would think committing now would be better. Hopefully the school will honor it.

@2022NYC posted:

Given the current situation, I would think committing now would be better. Hopefully the school will honor it.

Seniors is one thing. If I were a 2021 and not committed yet, all things COVID-19 and NCAA rulings considered, I would be sweating bullets now and really researching D3s and Jucos.

For the 2022, the juniors, I can see the logic of taking an offer now, if you are feeling the love, like the school and program, and not waiting. Bird in the hand, etc. Plus it allows you to take the showcase/commit thing out of your head and allows you to train your ass off for the next 18 to 21 months and let that be your focus.

@Francis7 posted:

I could see that situation. Actually, since my son is a junior, I can tell you what I see now. 

I see the 2022s going mid-major D1 or higher committing now or they are already committed. We saw a bunch of them coming off the board in August and September. And, it seems like those who are more likely to be lower end D1 (or hopeful of maybe mid-major D1 still) are uncommitted and waiting to see what happens with offers (and the impact on the process due to COVID-19, school funding issues and the NCAA giving everyone an extra year, etc.).

But, for those "waiting" kids, if they have done their homework and looked at all the possible landing spots within their personal D1 options, and eliminated most of them because of "whatever" (price, strength of program/conference, lack of interest in him from school), and they have an offer from a D2 that is an excellent opportunity, do they commit now even though it's 9 to 12 months earlier than "normal"? Or do they continue to wait because it's not the norm to commit D2 until the September of your senior year?

I’m not on the front lines of recruiting so this is a guess. Under the current circumstances I’m guessing any position player who doesn’t have an offer from a top 200 D1 program is a C or D option if another player doesn’t commit. Pitchers are like Jello. There’s always room for pitchers.

@RJM posted:

I’m not on the front lines of recruiting so this is a guess. Under the current circumstances I’m guessing any position player who doesn’t have an offer from a top 200 D1 program is a C or D option if another player doesn’t commit. Pitchers are like Jello. There’s always room for pitchers.

So, if your options are a bottom 100 D1, would it make sense to take a top 20 D2 offer now if you were a junior?

@Francis7 posted:

So, if your options are a bottom 100 D1, would it make sense to take a top 20 D2 offer now if you were a junior?

If the decision is about nothing but baseball I would take a top twenty D2 over a bottom one hundred D1 at any time. But the decision should be more about education than baseball.

A bottom one hundred D1 isn’t going to the CWS. They’re unlikely to have a winning record. In 2019 three had winning records. A top twenty D2 might make it to the D2 national championships.

To give you the short answer - Nov to May is not recruiting time. 

I'm sure you'll hear a story or two about how some kid went to some indoor showcase, killed it and some schools showed interest. But for the overwhelming majority, the months leading up to the season and the season are based around the actual team, not recruiting. 

After NLIs coaches can breathe for a but before they determine who is getting let go at Christmas. 

You can play the what if games/what are the odds as much as you'd like but the advice is going to be the same almost all the time. If your kid has an offer that he likes from a school he'd like to attend then jump on it. If he doesn't want to play at that school or wants to hold out to play at a higher level he can try, but if it doesn't work out don't expect the first school to be waiting with open arms. 

@PABaseball posted:

To give you the short answer - Nov to May is not recruiting time. 

Thanks. That's what I thought MIGHT be the case. So, if you don't have something happening in November then it's probably not happening until next May, if you are a junior. 

@Francis7 posted:

Thanks. That's what I thought MIGHT be the case. So, if you don't have something happening in November then it's probably not happening until next May, if you are a junior. 

Pre-Covid, schools would come see you in person. That's limited now so I'm not in a position to say. 

But at least in the northeast fall ball wraps up the second or third weekend in October. So there really wasn't any more recruiting to do for coaches. After Ft. Myers it was mostly just getting kids on campus and giving offers out. 

In warmer weather states I'd imagine it's a bit different, especially in places where you can play year round. This board is mostly used for recruiting info, which is fine, but a lot of people forget that coaches still have to coach the team they have at some point.

I guess to answer your question - If I'm an undecided junior who is not talking to any new schools at the end of the fall season I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for somebody new to  hit me up out of the blue in December. 

I’m with PA. What’s on the table by October is what you have until next June. If you don’t take what’s on the table it may not be there next June.

With COVID, not taking a good offer and waiting until next year is playing chicken with the process. 

As a former D-2 College, today I would not attend “showcase” events.

However My Coaches and I would request from our alumni and pro scouts the names of prospects. My 5 local JC are sending 15 players each year.

Bob

@PABaseball posted:

I guess to answer your question - If I'm an undecided junior who is not talking to any new schools at the end of the fall season I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for somebody new to  hit me up out of the blue in December. 

So, I'm a 2022 and it's November 2020. Any offer that I have is going to probably be the only offer I'm going to see until Spring/Summer 2021. 

Meanwhile, also in November 2020, just about every college baseball roster has about 20 too many players. And, those 20 kids on every team will be looking for places to play in the Spring 2021. 

Is it safe to say that schools are going to be busy trying to figure out what 35 kids to keep and looking at all the kids in the transfer portal to see if there's anything better than what they have on their 35, to be talking to potential 2022s - until after the 2021 college season...meaning that whatever you have as a player in terms of an offer in November 2020 might just be all you might see until Fall 2021?

You’re fixating on the wrong number (35). About 20 players will receive enough playing time to be considered contributors. Whether a team has 35 players or 45 players you want to be one of the top 20. If you’re better than player 21 it doesn’t matter if there’s 35 or 45. 

In most situations the position player, at the least has to get a feel freshman year he’s going to have an opportunity to be a contributor soph year.

Francis, that's a lot of questions and I'm not really sure what you're asking. My opinion is already posted here. I really wouldn't worry about current roster cuts and the transfer portal for a school you may or may not even have communication with. 

I have a 2022 who is talking to a bunch of schools from P5 to average D1s. If he doesn't get an offer from a school he would want to go to after Ft. Myers, he'll bet on himself, shut it down and get better for the following summer. He's not going to talk to schools all winter and spring in an effort to get an offer when nothing new is happening. 

Finish the fall, see what happens. If there's nothing new you either take what's there or you hold out and get better. There is no guarantee that what's already there will still be there in July. Schools want to be loved too. 

@PABaseball posted:

Francis, that's a lot of questions and I'm not really sure what you're asking. My opinion is already posted here. I really wouldn't worry about current roster cuts and the transfer portal for a school you may or may not even have communication with. 

I have a 2022 who is talking to a bunch of schools from P5 to average D1s. If he doesn't get an offer from a school he would want to go to after Ft. Myers, he'll bet on himself, shut it down and get better for the following summer. He's not going to talk to schools all winter and spring in an effort to get an offer when nothing new is happening. 

Finish the fall, see what happens. If there's nothing new you either take what's there or you hold out and get better. There is no guarantee that what's already there will still be there in July. Schools want to be loved too. 

Thanks PA. I keep thinking there are a lot of variables now, more than ever before, and dismissing any of them would be a mistake. But, I usually over-think things too. So, there's that...

At the end of the day, it's probably simple - like most things. If you like it, go for it. Don't look back. And, don't count on something happening just because you think it might possibly happen. Stuff like that...

Thinking about this some more.

By me, I see kids verbally committing to D2 schools around August or September of their senior year in HS. At least, historically that's what I have noticed.

Let's say someone now is planning on verbally committing to a D2 school in November of their junior year. 

Simple math says that is 9 months earlier than the historical norm - and too early by traditional experience.

But, if you are saying that nothing much really happens recruiting-wise from November to May, is it really 9 months too soon or is it more like 2 to 3 months too soon since 6 to 7 of those "9 months too soon" are not a period where you are going to get recruited anyway?

And, those who do commit D2 in August and September of their senior year wait until then because they are hoping for that D1 offer to come in the summer following their junior year. This true?

I am clearly no expert here but one heck of a opiner...imho. We all agree the supply has reached an all time high so I think if given the opportunity to commit, it would be risky not to, especially for a position player. 

@2022NYC posted:

I am clearly no expert here but one heck of a opiner...imho. We all agree the supply has reached an all time high so I think if given the opportunity to commit, it would be risky not to, especially for a position player. 

I noticed a lot of 2021s who had dreams of mid to low D1 schools committing to D3s (some of which I never heard of until hearing them commit) over the last couple of months. And I wonder if that will happen again next summer with the 2022s who are waiting, hoping, etc.?

Between the rosters being over saturated and D1s losing money and having less to offer, it might be risky for an uncommitted 2022 to pass on something in hand now waiting to see what is available when it's the summer of 2021.

Sadly though my network of friends and colleagues, every one of their academic institutions are badly in the red. This includes well endowed universities.  This coupled with the supply side surplus of talent,  if you are 2022 position player looking for a non-HA D1, you should already be getting looks by the schools, if not then I do not believe you are D1 talent.

I think this is being over complicated.....Let's assume next Summer will be the traditional Summer ball season. If he goes out and plays against top tier competition and crushes it, he will get the expected (D1) offer(s) by end of Summer. If you think there's a chance that he might not crush it next Summer, take the lower offer sooner than later. Is he willing to bet on himself?

@fly996 posted:

I think this is being over complicated.....Let's assume next Summer will be the traditional Summer ball season. If he goes out and plays against top tier competition and crushes it, he will get the expected (D1) offer(s) by end of Summer. If you think there's a chance that he might not crush it next Summer, take the lower offer sooner than later. Is he willing to bet on himself?

If you are a D1 school, and you have a bunch of 2020 HS kids now finishing Juco, and others in the transfer portal, wouldn't you rather take a kid who can help you win now rather than the 19 year old 2022 HS senior? Kid can crush it all he wants against other 22s. But the Juco kid is more proven and helpful...I think?

@Francis7 posted:

If you are a D1 school, and you have a bunch of 2020 HS kids now finishing Juco, and others in the transfer portal, wouldn't you rather take a kid who can help you win now rather than the 19 year old 2022 HS senior? Kid can crush it all he wants against other 22s. But the Juco kid is more proven and helpful...I think?

Francis, you are really starting to recycle the same questions over and over with slightly different window dressing.

  If the D2 is offering your son now, then now is their timeframe.  Based on all the info you and your son have gathered, is it a good offer or not?  Is it a good fit or not?  You've already established that another D1 offer is not likely to come up between now and May at the earliest.  So what is the difference whether the current D2 offer is 2 months or 5 months or 8 months earlier than what the "norm" is?

Regarding D1 schools looking to JC transfers before a HS senior, you know that many schools use JC kids and many don't.  That isn't likely to change significantly.  Until that time that your son has the additional D1 offer/s from specific school, there is zero reason to speculate.  You already know that, generally, the pipeline will be more crowded.  That is as much as you can project.

Unless you and he pick a program where he will surely play (which, to some extent, says you guys are under-shooting), there will be some risk, some heavy competition and uncertainty.  That's where the player... every player.. has to step up and earn his keep.  Then, he will have to do it again the next day, the next week, the next game, the next year.  That's competitive college baseball.  

At the risk of diluting my primary message above, here's another thought...

If the D2 offer seems like the best and smartest choice at this time, he should take it with the idea that he is fully committed to it.  If things change drastically (i.e. - he improves significantly over the next 8 months and gets more serious D1 attention), things can be re-evaluated at that time.  Most coaches, under those circumstances, would be inclined to understand.  Probably even more so in these unprecedented times.

Thanks Cabbage