Perfect Game Rating

From an email my son sent to a coach and his response...

Son:

The PG numbers are all from last year for the most part. I had planned on doing the December National Showcase again strictly for the display of new numbers (everything is improved) but not sure how important they are at this point. So not 100% sure on that.

Coach Response:

I don’t think I'd be spending money chasing after PG numbers right now. Most of us coaches will reference those results, but it's when we get our eyes on you live that we make our evaluations.

Good question! My 2014 has a couple close friends who are in top 100 and my son can hang with them, but he has never been to anything other than a tournament. IMO, one of the 10 best kids in a neighboring state has no info on PG.

Yea, at this point he is getting a lot of D1 interest and some invites to campuses. I think the money might be better spent on traveling to a few colleges that are intereted in him and he in them.
His numbers are comparable to the top 100 nationally.

thanks,

What a Perfect game rating does is get you an "intentional" look. In other words coaches and scouts will come to scout you. Very often kids get noticed when a coach comes to look at one kid and see's another perform.
The intentional look is typically longer and more thorough, than getting noticed.

PG has 43 kids from TN ranked in the top 1000 for 2013. Of these players almost 60% have committed D1. In NC the percentage holds true as well.
I tend to agree that Coaches don't make decisions based on the PG rating, but they seem to return more emails or phone calls if the player's rating is good.

Good endorsements are always good.

Here is what I will say. If you grade out high enough or are ranked high enough and they have a need. They are going to know you have talent. They will make sure they see you and they are going to like what they see.

The best thing about a PG event is to see how your son stacks up against the best. A PG event is worth every penny.

The tournament and showcase are apples and oranges. You can get a fairly close idea of how he will be rated by looking at the ratings/velos/times of prior participants. If your son is a strong D1 prospect and it fits in your budget, then I suspect a PG showcase can be very helpful as part of his overall exposure strategy.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:
The best thing about a PG event is to see how your son stacks up against the best. A PG event is worth every penny.

agree 100%.......

We've had good experiences with both PG tournaments and individual showcases.
There is no better competition to be found than the late summer PG tourneys, and they're always well-organized.
Regarding the individual showcases and the accompanying PG ratings, I'm a little less enthusiastic. Personally, I think $600 should get you a little more color than the repetitive narrative and a few radar and running measurements found in the report.
For pitchers, the PG ratings are almost exclusively based on current fastball velocity and not much else. (This may be disputed in subsequent posts but reviewing the database reveals a very predictable and repeated correlation that varies very little). So if your son is a young pitcher who hasn't "found" his velocity yet, attending an individual showcase may not be the best use of time and resources.
Position player ratings are more comprehensive, I think, and tend to be more defensible.
Having said that, PG events are probably responsible for the majority of exposure that my son has received, leading to some very warm interest from a nice mix of low D-1 and D-2 schools. So is it worth it? Until someone builds a better mousetrap, I'd say yes.

quote:

Originally posted by Tribe:

For pitchers, the PG ratings are almost exclusively based on current fastball velocity and not much else. (This may be disputed in subsequent posts but reviewing the database reveals a very predictable and repeated correlation that varies very little).

You were right, I don't agree with this statement. Here is an excerpt from one of my son's two individual showcases - specifically on his pitching:

"High-level pitching prospect, 3/4 arm slot on the mound, really live arm, loose arm, good etension, outstanding life on fastball, nasty 10-4 slider with very good late life, attacks hitters, good pitchability, big upside on the mound"

I think that gives a little better description of a pitcher than listing a current fastball velocity.

I think PG ratings and the write ups that come with them can be a very good verifier (is that a word) for a college coach or scout. It is not the end all/be all. You will not get recruited solely on a PG rating and write up, but if a recruiting coordinator sees a prospect and brings that kids info back to head coach, the head coach may just take a peek at the PG info to confirm what the recruiting guy is saying. If a scout or coach sees a kid that he likes during one performance, they may look to the PG stuff to see if previous outings were similar to what he just saw. I think it is a good tool to have available and out there. Even though it is like $600, there are no other services out there that provide freely and publicly as much information and professional evaluation as PG does. I think it's worth the money.

Just my feeling.

quote:

Originally posted by Tribe:
For pitchers, the PG ratings are almost exclusively based on current fastball velocity and not much else.

1) Without a decent fastball, why would that kid bother attending a PG event? Like it or not, velocity is not only #1 but REQUIRED to get to the next level.

2) A decent fastball is complemented by good mechanics. If a kid has good mechanics but a poor fastball, I doubt it's worth the time writing up a detailed description. Not a prospect.

The only problem I have with PG right now is coming up off the $200 scratch to buy the premium upgrade just to see where my kid is ranked in the 2014 class..LOL. All experience with them and their tournaments has been A+ for me. They have responded quickly to my questions about errors on his profile and quickly corrected them. Top notch in my book

I don't know if anyone has tried this, but somewhere between 90-95% of the time, you can look at the photo and numbers and guess the rating without watching video. Try it.

bballman, I was referring to to the PG numerical rating, not the pitcher's narrative.
My point is simply that the FB velocity is the primary driver of a pitcher's rating (7.5, 8.0, 8.5, etc..)
Truth is, if you're a 16 year old throwing 91, you're going to get a high rating regardless of your form, or for that matter your ability to throw strikes.

quote:

Truth is, if you're a 16 year old throwing 91, you're going to get a high rating regardless of your form, or for that matter your ability to throw strikes

Yes, you will get a 10 almost certainly. unless the kid is 5'2 220 pounds.

Velocity is important. I think a lot depends on age/class. We have a lot of data that shows us that 15 or 16 year olds can and do improve a lot. Sometimes we will see a mid 80s pitcher that we like better than some 90 mph pitchers. There are many things to consider.

Even the older kids are not always ranked by velocity. That would be very simple, you just rank them starting at the highest velocity. Just two years ago there was a RHP we ranked around 50 in the nation. His peak velocity would have ranked him #2. We had several low 90 guys ahead of him. The arm action, body type, arm speed, mechanics, athleticism, atc., all play a part when trying to figure out how good someone is likely to be in the future. That's not to mention many other things that go into evaluating a pitcher.

We all know that pitchers can be successful without good velocity. But they are the exception. The higher the velocity the more likely the power colleges want you. The more likely you will be drafted earlier. People can candy coat it any way they want and it still turns out the same way every year.

Freshman and sophomores can throw in the 70s and some can be very intertesting prospects. High school seniors throwing in the 70s will not be considered prospects unless they have mastered the knuckle ball. It's not a matter of being right or wrong... It's just the way it is! We didn't make the rules!

What is important and we look at this very closely is progression. We grade based on projection. Nothing scientific, just our opinion on how good the player will be in the future. Most every player will grade higher than if we were grading him on his current ability. In other words we expect every player to improve. Some we project more improvement than others. That is why sometimes an underclassman throwing 80 or even less will grade higher than a senior throwing 85. In that case we believe that underclassmen will throw above 85 when he is a senior. It's proven to be pretty accurate over many years.

Also when we and others see the improvement being steady over a three or four year period it's very meaningful. If one pitcher over four years went 70-75-80-85 and another went 80-83-85-85... which one would you bet on throwing a higher velocity next year and beyond? If all you knew was there velocity as a senior, it would be harder to project. So, the history or track record becomes a valuable asset to recruiters and scouts. Nothing is a certainty, but all information is helful.

Just for the record, this information will not normally get a kid recruited or drafted. It will/does create interest if the grade or rank is good.

However, there have been cases, even at some of the top programs in the country, where offers have been made and kids have commited based on nothing more than our conversation with coaches. Believe it or not, some of the very top DI coaches actually believe us 100% even without actually seeing the player. In these cases I don't think they (coaches)have ever been disappointed. If we are wrong just one time, it ends that trust forever. These are usually timing issues because all coaches will want to see the player if possible.

Thanks for the responses. He has always enjoyed the PG tourney's and we are at the Underclass in Ft. Myers right now. Still undecided on the PG showcase.

Just curious...I've seen kids rated 7.0 or 7.5 by PG that are listed "FOLLOWS" and I've seen kids rated 7.5 rated "HIGH FOLLOWS". I'm assuming that the first is a "rating" and the later is the "rank". But I guess I'm confused by the connection between the two...if any.

Is this where "projectability" is coming into play?

Our two son's never attended a PG event. We did not see the value. For some it may be a good way of getting seen and evaluated, but not a good fit for our family.

There are other ways to get this done.

Lefty

2014 hit 89 today.... serveral scouts.... one I knew prior and ran into at the event said that 2014 does not need to attend a showcase. Said at this point there's nothing to be gained.

I think the recruiting process for hitters and pitchers is dramatically different and more challenging. At least pitchers that hit 90+ and are over 6'.
Those guys are always in demand and velocity numbers are very easy to scout.

The funny thing about showcases is that they were a blast to attend with my son! A mini vacation with just the two of us. That is how I always viewed them. I wish I could do it all over again!

Bleacher dad, there is a good thread somewhere about rankings vs ratings that is worth reading.


I think there is a strong correlation between rating (ie, 8) with ranking (ei Follow, high follow) but it isn't a set formula.

2014 is 6'4 1/2 , I agree all the scouts I saw were interested in pitchers, I'm sure some were looking for their own indivual needs , but mostly pitchers.

quote:

2014 hit 89 today.... serveral scouts.... one I knew prior and ran into at the event said that 2014 does not need to attend a showcase. Said at this point there's nothing to be gained.

bacdorslider,

First of all... Congratulations to your son. I don't really care if you attend a showcase or not, but the advice above is horrible advice. It is always possible that nothing would be gained, but there is no one on earth that could possibly know that.

A player never knows who might see him at any particular event. The most important person to his future in baseball might be at that next event. How can nothing be gained? Has someone offered him a predraft 1st round deal already? Is every college program after him?

In baseball there is always something out there to be gained.

That said... It's not a must to attend any certain event. It's possible to become a hall of famer without going to any showcase. However, you might want to check out what most all the first rounders and early round draft picks did.

It sounds like your son has some serious talent. I know when I was a scout and when I was a recruiter, the last thing I wanted a good player to do is get seen by more people. Back then I might have told a good player he had nothing to gain by letting more people see him. Actually I never did tell anyone that because it sounded too stupid and wouldn't be true, but I could still hope everyone would not see him.

Once again, I don't care what you do. I just think that advice (about nothing to gain) was bad. I do wish I had seen your son pitch. Best of luck to him.

If my kid was 6'4"(and a half! lol) throwing 89 at Fort Myers as a junior, I'd be signing him up for the "biggest" PG showcase he could get into!

This is the year, bacdoor, you only get to go down this road once.

Assuming he wants it, and your budget permits it, get him to that showcase.


Take care of grades and SAT/ACT work this year also.

quote:

2014 hit 89 today.... serveral scouts.... one I knew prior and ran into at the event said that 2014 does not need to attend a showcase. Said at this point there's nothing to be gained.

I agree with PGStaff that is horrible advice. I hope and pray that what they were saying was lost in translations. Recruited = passion + exposure + skill + persistence + luck. Why would someone recommend that your son's journey is over simply because he threw 89? It makes no sense. I would agrue it is just getting started. He needs to be seen by the college coaches that he wants to be seen by. In additon, there are many other kids throwing 89, you want the school to want him. How is he going to seperate himself from the others throwing 89? Grades, SATS, attitude, interest in the school are some starters. Again, you are just getting started.

Good luck.

I'm going to have to disagree with the popular opinion-- for now. He's at Ft. Myers attending one of the best underclass tournaments in the country. Obviously did well, so I'm sure he is catching attention. A matter of fact, father has said he already has strong interest from colleges. I believe he has participated in other PG tournaments as well, so he is being seen. Chances are he'll be invited to other showcases, and at some point (summer) he might want to change his mind and get into one. But Ft Myers, Jupiter, and East Cobb tournaments are the
biggest exposure tournaments, and it sounds like he is going to those. It's all good stuff, but on a budget the showcase would be the first thing we would have eliminated-- unless we seriously thought he was prepared for and wanted to turn pro after high school. Then it's another story. (Of course our son is not 6'4" with a pitcher's build) Our son showed better in tournaments.

My opinion is based on the hindsite of son having done showcases and tournaments, and finding out what interested the schools that recruited him.

quote:

Originally posted by smalltownmom:
I'm going to have to disagree with the popular opinion-- for now. He's at Ft. Myers attending one of the best underclass tournaments in the country. Obviously did well, so I'm sure he is catching attention. A matter of fact, father has said he already has strong interest from colleges. I believe he has participated in other PG tournaments as well, so he is being seen. Chances are he'll be invited to other showcases, and at some point (summer) he might want to change his mind and get into one. But Ft Myers, Jupiter, and East Cobb tournaments are the
biggest exposure tournaments, and it sounds like he is going to those. It's all good stuff, but on a budget the showcase would be the first thing we would have eliminated-- unless we seriously thought he was prepared for and wanted to turn pro after high school. Then it's another story. (Of course our son is not 6'4" with a pitcher's build) Our son showed better in tournaments.

My opinion is based on the hindsite of son having done showcases and tournaments, and finding out what interested the schools that recruited him.

I am with you on this. I do know that Bacdor works hard at trying to figure out how on a limited budget what will work best for two players in HS (junior and senior) and two more on the way shortly.

I don't think the goal is at this time for proball, but to find the best college opportunity (and scholarship available) and the player has lots of interest.

Isn't the whole idea about trying to get the best exposure that you can afford a very important aspect of advice we give?

FWIW, many years ago we got the same advice for son, he did better playing in tournaments and on competitive team that played out of state and the same as Bacdors son, USA tryouts which opened doors as a sophmore. He did one showcase and did it so that he could see how he presented himself with those he would have to compete with. The costs were minimal at that time, I cannot imagine how hard it must be for folks to be able to keep up with the costs for one, let alone, 2, 3 and 4.

The best part in all of this is that we get to choose, whether we make the right decisions or not, we learn, and I think that bacdor has learned lots of lessons that his players are both different and what works for one may not for the other.

Thanks PGStaff, Smalltownmom,Fenwaysouth and the others for your posts.

The conversation went this way. I was talking to him about what 2014 had done this year, School ball, Travel ball, Jupiter, USA TEAM try-outs, Area Code, etc. We talked about the schools that had contacted him and their level of interest, some hot some warm. We talked about recruiting rules, coaches he knew, grades etc. In conversation, I asked him if he felt going to a PG showcase would be worth the money and he said "Well I don't see that a lot would be gained at this point" He then asked me about his off season workouts, who he took pitching lessons from and what he thought he needed to work on as far as mechanics etc.... the PG qestion was a very small part.

It seems some people feel it's a must do and some feel it is not.

quote:

Originally posted by BaseballmomandCEP:
If my kid was 6'4"(and a half! lol) throwing 89 at Fort Myers as a junior, I'd be signing him up for the "biggest" PG showcase he could get into!

This is the year, bacdoor, you only get to go down this road once.

Assuming he wants it, and your budget permits it, get him to that showcase.


Take care of grades and SAT/ACT work this year also.

Budget is a concern in this......

bacdorslider,

Thnaks. Let me clarify just a little bit. "Showcase" means many things to many different people. I'm not suggesting your son has to attend expensive showcases all around the county. Still, I disagree with the original advice that was given. PG showcases come in many shapes and sizes. Pick a PG or other showcase that fits your son goals by having a majority of coaches he seeks.

Since you have some interest, you can tailor or target where your son get his exposure. That can still be specific select showcases or camps to keep your son on the market, and top of mind. Again, there are many kids throwing 89mph across the county. You want to select the school, and be at the top of their list.

Most showcases are money driven. They price many good players out of the process.Travel ball is also a big money grab. Many people cannot afford all the expenses involved. That is a shame but also a realty.
Amateur baseball should be called "Moneyball" but that would be redundant.

quote:

Originally posted by fenwaysouth:
bacdorslider,

Thnaks. Let me clarify just a little bit. "Showcase" means many things to many different people. I'm not suggesting your son has to attend expensive showcases all around the county. Still, I disagree with the original advice that was given. PG showcases come in many shapes and sizes. Pick a PG or other showcase that fits your son goals by having a majority of coaches he seeks.

Since you have some interest, you can tailor or target where your son get his exposure. That can still be specific select showcases or camps to keep your son on the market, and top of mind. Again, there are many kids throwing 89mph across the county. You want to select the school, and be at the top of their list.

So you are saying that out of the schools showing interest in him we need to pick a school from this list that he likes, can afford, can get accepted.
he was invited to go to a camp at an SEC school close to our home. Beleive me I know there a bunch of 6'4 RHP throwing 89.... I saw some this week throwing low 90's it seems the further up the ladder he goes the exponetially harder it gets.

Being 6'4 and RHP throwing 89 will definitely get you looks. In Bum, Jr's case he was a 5'9" LHP throwing 89. Being pretty much any height throwing 89 will get you looks.

Velocity like that is critical, but maybe even more so for pro scouts who are willing to develop players. For the college guys, you better have other pitches such as a curve, a slider or a changeup with some depth.

quote:

So you are saying that out of the school showing interest in him we need to pick a school he likes. he was invited to go to a camp at an SEC school close to our home. Beleive me I know there a bunch of 6'4 RHP throwing 89.... I saw some this week throwing low 90's it seems the further up the ladder he goes the exponetially harder it gets.

_____________________
Bacdor-- Go with your gut. You know your budget and son's schedule better than anyone else. Don't feel you have to do camps. Son didn't, and he had some good offers at some good schools. With your son's body and early level of interest he will be fine with whatever you choose. What drove our decisions was where he was in his throwing schedule. He was not going to a camp if it was his scheduled rest, and he was not going to manipulate his schedule for a camp or tournament. Passed on a few things because of this, but you could never convince me that was a bad decision. Also, our son attends an extremely rigorous academic school. (most definitely NOT a BB school!) If he went chasing tournaments, showcases, and camps he wouldn't have had the academic choices he was blessed with.

Frankly, if I were a 2014 throwing 89, I would spend my money and efforts on getting over the 90 hump, then do the summer circuit in 2013.

There's a world of difference for college recruiters between 89 and 91. 91 is ACC/SEC. 89, next summer, is likely not. 89 is 'early interest', 91 is 'signed'.

His coach thinks he can get to low 90's by next summer. I hope so. He might be 6'5 by then