PG Rankings

When I played, I have gone a full week without getting a hit. It's really not a big deal. You can tell who can play by watching the game.

ncbaseball - As redbird points out, its really about potential over stats in one particular week. Its about pro projectability.

Many parents/players ask a version of the question you did...and it can be difficult to understand projection over output.

But let me try(?) to give an example that might help you see it a little better.

Would you expect a 5 ft. 9 in. RHP throwing 84/85 mph with a complete game shutout at EC to get ranked over a 6 ft. 4 in. RHP throwing 90/91 mph but gave up 5 runs in 5 innings? This example is not far-fetched and parents do get confused over this one too.

The answer is almost surely (but not definitely)...no. The big guy with the big fastball will nearly always get ranked higher. Potential.

quote:

Originally posted by ncbaseball25:
I don't understand the Perfect Game rankings at all. The 2013 updated rankings were posted and there were guys who jumped into the top 300 and didn't have a single hit at East Cobb. How do you go from the outside of the rankings to making the top 300 without registering a single hit as a position player?

Turn the question around on yourself and I think you'll be closer to the answer. Would you want to be judged by your stats over just one week? Anybody who has played the game - including the millionaires at the highest level can go one week without getting a hit.

Back to this example...

What if one guy hit .500 (6-12) with 3 bloop hits, two nubbers, and a bunt. Nothing was ever hit hard or squared up off player #1's bat. The next guy hits zero for the week (0-8) with 3 walks, 2 deep sac flies, 4 rocket shots that were hit right at someone, a potential homerun that somebody miraculolusly pulled back into the park, a strikeout after a 10 pitch at bat, and two hard groundouts. Almost every thing off player # 2's bat is a barrel shot.

Ever hear of the law of averages?

I once heard a Cleveland Indians scout say they judge hitters this way - "How often does a player hit the ball hard" He didn't say what is their batting average, he said how often do they hit it hard. If you hit it hard, the law of averages will take care of the batting average over "time."

quote:

Originally posted by ncbaseball25:
I don't understand the Perfect Game rankings at all. The 2013 updated rankings were posted and there were guys who jumped into the top 300 and didn't have a single hit at East Cobb. How do you go from the outside of the rankings to making the top 300 without registering a single hit as a position player?

I somewhat don't agree with the original poster. It's all about projectability, so I could care less about who did what in some tournament.

However, the rankings this year are off much more this year than they have been in the last 5 years. They should really think about taking a look at them again. Granted I haven't seen some of these kids in tournaments, but I've seen a lot of them.

They have 5 kids ranked in the top 300 that had a PG grade of 8.5 or lower and they were all seen this year by PG in a showcase. They have one kid with a 7.0 ranked in the top 300!! Yet they have roughly 10 kids who have 9.0 or higher who arent even ranked....how is that? They were also all seen this year in one of there showcases. Either they don't believe in there own system or the rankings are political. Or they just rushed the rankings out and didnt do due diligence. I feel bad for those kids as obviously they have talent and PG has so much influence.

You think they would overlook it top to bottom 100 times over since they hold some much of these kids in there hands as most outlets just copy them. Some of the 9.0 or highers weren't even in the top 1000. The 9.0's had originally a high follow status at one point and now they all have been changed to top 1000 on all the ones that were left out? Wierd.

I always agree with perfect game rankings and they are always pretty close, granted they can miss a few here and there, but this year just doesnt seem right with all of those 9.0 left out. Who knows maybe they are still working on it? OVerall I'm waiting before I make overall judgement, but they hold a lot of these kids in there hands since must outlets basically copy them. I have faith in PG and that they will get it done, just give them time!

Looking back on it, one of the least worthwhile ways to occupy your mind about your son's recruitment is to spend time worrying over Perfect Game's or anyone else's rankings; particularly if they're about younger players.

When it counts, recruiters and scouts evaluate with their own eyes; not off of some list...no matter how much effort goes into producing it. You're much better off putting your attention on elements that are within your control and that really matter.

If your son is working diligently to become a college or professional-level player, paying attention to his grades, and taking the right steps to be seen by the recruiters and scouts that are appropriate to his aspirations, it doesn't matter where he falls on the list.

quote:

Originally posted by ClevelandDad:
…I once heard a Cleveland Indians scout say they judge hitters this way - "How often does a player hit the ball hard" He didn't say what is their batting average, he said how often do they hit it hard. If you hit it hard, the law of averages will take care of the batting average over "time."

Being a Tribe fan for well over a half-century, I’ve often wondered why the kids they bring up from the minors have difficulty batting more than their weight! Now I know!

Well said, Prepster. I couldn't agree more.

I really don’t mind it if people question the rankings. The thing that bothers me is when players are discussed in a negative way. Truth is… once we get to a certain number, players can be very similar in ability. So it is possible the difference (in our opinion) between a player ranked 175 and 475 could be so small that the next time we adjust the rankings those players could switch. It’s also possible that we are simply wrong. There is nothing exact about rankings and there is no way to keep score of accuracy.

Examples… We had Brett Anderson ranked near the top as a senior in HS. Many we ranked below him were drafted in the first round, Brett in the second round. So were we right or were we wrong? We had Buster Posey ranked high and picked him as an Aflac All American as a Shortstop/Pitcher. Were we right or were we wrong? We had Jason Heyward ranked right at the top even though no one else did. Guess most would say we got that one right.

Regarding the 2013 rankings… This was the first update in a long time. Still it is very early in the process of trying to rank 2013 grads. Those rankings are most likely going to change a lot over the next year or two.

It is always possible that a player ranked a 7 could end up ranked very high. The 7 was a grade from a previous event. We might have seen that player a lot since that 7 grade. We might even think he is a 9 or a 10 now. However, if he did not attend an event that actually grades the player the last grade shows a 7. There have been many players go from 7 to 9 or 10 over a period of time. Guess you could say we were wrong the first time. Do not confuse rankings with a players grade. They don't always go together. We could grade a 5'11 pitcher throwing low 80s a 7. Then the next time we see him he is a 6'2 pitcher throwing 90 in a WWBA tournament.

I’ve seen current Major League players go 0 for a tournament before. We have had guys like Prince Fielder and Justin Upton go hitless for 4 or 5 days mostly striking out. However we also saw them at times when they would show what they were capable of. So it’s very possible the player who didn’t get a hit in a specific tournament was seen at other places.

There will always be a debate between production and potential. It would be much easier to rank players based on production or performance. But if we did that, the results would miss many of the very top prospects in the country.

For scouts, certain match ups (top hitter vs top pitcher) can become more important and revealing than what happens the rest of the game or even the rest of the week. Prince Fielder against Zach Greinke in Jupiter WWBA in a game winning situation. Prince fouled first fastball 94 mph straight back, worked the count full, fouled off a couple and then struck out swinging to end the game. The score book (results) shows a strike out. The scouts saw a future Major League All Star hitter and a future Cy Young Pitcher.

I don’t want to down play production at all. Production is important and can create interest in players. The more consistent the production the more interest. However production changes each day. Things like tools, body type, will be the same tomorrow as they were today.

I think many people get confused when hearing words like projection, profile or potential. It confuses me at times too. Here is somewhat of an attempt to explain…

Projection is predicting or guessing the future based on what is currently seen and opinion of scout. Many things go into thinking here including tools, body, blood lines, instincts, makeup, comparisons, feel for the game, etc. Even production against top level competition can play a part when the other things are there.

Profiling is trying to figure out how, why or where the player best projects. What position is he best suited for, what type of hitter, starting or relief pitcher, what level – All Star, Regular, Utility Player, 4th Outfielder, Contributor, Organizational Guy, etc.

Potential, I guess, is the highest achievement that can be predicted for that player.

Players should never listen to what others are predicting about there future.

The stuff above relates to professional scouting where everything is based on Major League thinking.
Colleges obviously are interested in most of the same things. However, there are “great” college players that don’t necessarily project or profile as Major League players. Colleges can’t wait for 5 years to see if the player they recruit reaches his potential. So along with the tools and potential the college coach sees, he needs to think more short term. How soon can this player help us? In this case, production can have a little more impact. I’ve never really liked using this, but often MLB scouts will refer to certain players as “He’s a college guy”.

Some of these college guys then go on to surprise the scouting community and do become Major Leaguers, some even become stars. Then there are players who never received any attention from MLB scouts coming out of high school. Lots of these are later drafted early out of college and some have great careers.

Truth is, if scouting (or ranking) players were perfect, these players would have been discovered in high school. If projection were perfect, a great scout would have been able to see the potential. After all it is the same person, just a few years older. Why didn’t they see or predict what Stephen Strasburg would be like in three years?
It’s because the whole thing is very difficult. If we had the foresight to rank Strasburg, at the top of his high school class, message boards everywhere would have lit up with how stupid we are. We actually did take some guff for having him ranked as high as we did.

Bottom line… I can’t say rankings are unimportant. We know that many look at the rankings including scouts and college coaches. I like to think of our rankings as a form of identification. Anyone that follows the PG rankings will have noticed that all other rankings end up with the same names only moved around a bit to look original. You cannot rank players without seeing them and most who rank players have not seen all those players. This just tends to further identify the top players. No Major League scouting department or major college coach can ignore the rankings. If you are an area scout somewhere and we have a player in the top 50 and you don’t turn him in, you better hope we are wrong or you will be out of a job. Now college coaches and scouts don’t always agree with our opinion, but they cannot ignore the player.

Also, while being ranked can be a good thing, being unranked is not equally damaging. It’s not like 30 MLB clubs and all the colleges stop looking or forming their own opinions on the millions of unranked players in the country.

In the end, ML Scouting Departments, Highest level College Programs, and Perfect game have all made mistakes in predicting the future of players. Some are right more often than others… That’s the best anyone can do. Anyone claiming to be right all the time, lacks honesty.

Perfect Game is not Perfect! We make mistakes! We do not make mistakes on purpose!

Tremendous reply, Jerry!

A great example of why this site is of such potential benefit.

..and I hope no one read into my post that I consider the rankings unimportant. The value of PG's list as a tool for identifying promising players is indisputable.

It's just that players are ultimately going to get chosen because a scout or recruiter sees enough in their play to make the decision to draft or recruit them. Most of the guys who scout or recruit are sufficiently secure in their abilities as evaluators of talent to leave the ranking behind at some point and allow their evaluative capacity to form the view that matters.

P.S. Thanks very much, fenway.

quote:

They have 5 kids ranked in the top 300 that had a PG grade of 8.5 or lower and they were all seen this year by PG in a showcase. They have one kid with a 7.0 ranked in the top 300!! Yet they have roughly 10 kids who have 9.0 or higher who arent even ranked....how is that? They were also all seen this year in one of there showcases. Either they don't believe in there own system or the rankings are political. Or they just rushed the rankings out and didnt do due diligence. I feel bad for those kids as obviously they have talent and PG has so much influence.

You think they would overlook it top to bottom 100 times over since they hold some much of these kids in there hands as most outlets just copy them. Some of the 9.0 or highers weren't even in the top 1000. The 9.0's had originally a high follow status at one point and now they all have been changed to top 1000 on all the ones that were left out? Wierd.

Ricky Vaughn,

I enjoy and appreciate this kind of feedback. I'm going to look into it today. It does seem like a mistake on the surface. I tried to explain the lower grade guys in the post above, but you certainly have a point on the other players with good grades.

I know the HSBBW is not the place to promote rankings, but people are always welcome to contact us with suggestions or complaints.

I can say that politics do not play a part in the rankings. They never have and not using politics has cost us more than a few friendly, and potentially profitable, relationships over the years. I will not rule out the possibility that we rushed into posting the list, concentrating too much on the top 100. If that is the case, no excuses, it would upset me and it will be corrected ASAP.

Thanks for the heads up!

Where did you have Clayton Kershaw ranked in 2006 ?

As far as the new 2013 rankings are concerned, does anyone know if performances at the recent WWB events are figured into the rankings? Thanks in advance!

2006 Rankings

Here is the top 20.

Rank Name Pos Ht Wt B T HS Hometown State
1 Kyle Drabek RHP SS 6-0 175 R R The Woodlands The Woodlands TX
2 Brett Anderson LHP 6-4 210 L L Stillwater Stillwater OK
3 Clayton Kershaw LHP 6-3 210 L L Highland Park Dallas TX
4 Hank Conger C 6-1 205 S R Huntington Beach Huntington Beach CA
5 Chris Marrero 3B 6-3 200 R R Monsignor Pace Hialeah Garden FL
6 Jordan Walden RHP 6-4 185 R R Mansfield Mansfield TX
7 Chris Parmelee OF 1B 6-1 195 L L Chino Hills Chino Hills CA
8 Cody Johnson OF 1B 6-4 195 L R Mosley Panama City FL
9 Chris Tillman RHP 6-5 185 R R Fountain Valley Fountain Valley CA
10 Jason Place OF 6-3 205 R R Wren Easley SC
11 Matthew Latos RHP 6-6 200 R R Coconut Creek Margate FL
12 Kasey Kiker LHP 5-11 185 L L Russell County Phenix City AL
13 Travis Snider OF 6-2 220 L L Jackson Mill Everett WA
14 Dellin Betances RHP 6-9 215 R R Grand Street New York NY
15 Jeremy Jeffress RHP 6-1 180 R R Halifax County South Boston VA
16 Max Sapp C 6-2 210 L R Bishop Moore Orlando FL
17 Billy Rowell 3B 6-4 198 L R Bishop Eustace Prep Sewell NJ
18 Adrian Cardenas SS 6-1 180 L R Monsignor Pace Miami Lakes FL
19 Jake Locker RHP OF 6-3 210 R R Ferndale Ferndale WA
20 Colton Willems RHP 6-4 185 R R John Carroll Fort Pierce FL

Now that it has been 5 years it is interesting to look at the results. Here are the HS players listed in order that they were drafted in the first round in 2006 draft. PG#listed

PG#3 Clayton Kershaw Los Angeles Dodgers LHP Highland Park High School
PG#17 Bill Rowell Baltimore Orioles 3B Bishop Eustace Preparatory School
PG#12 Kasey Kiker Texas Rangers LHP Russell County High School (AL)
PG#13 Travis Snider Toronto Blue Jays RF Henry M. Jackson High School
PG#5 Chris Marrero Washington Nationals 3B Monsignor Edward Pace High School
PG#15 Jeremy Jeffress Milwaukee Brewers RHP Halifax County High School (VA)
PG#1 Kyle Drabek Philadelphia Phillies RHP The Woodlands High School
PG#7 Chris Parmelee Minnesota Twins RF Chino Hills High School
PG#20 Colton Willems Washington Nationals RHP John Carroll Catholic High School
PG#16 Maxwell Sapp Houston Astros C Bishop Moore High School
PG#8 Cody Johnson Atlanta Braves 1B A. Crawford Mosley High School
PG#4 Hank Conger Los Angeles Angels C Huntington Beach High School
PG#10 Jason Place Boston Red Sox CF Wren High School
No Rank Preston Mattingly Los Angeles Dodgers SS Evansville Central High School
PG#26 Kyler Burke San Diego Padres RF Ooltewah High School
PG#18 Adrian Cardenas Philadelphia Phillies SS Monsignor Edward Pace High School
PG#23 Cory Rasmus Atlanta Braves RHP Russell County High School
PG#47 Steven Evarts Atlanta Braves LHP Robinson High School
PG#44 Caleb Clay Boston Red Sox RHP Cullman High School


PG #2 player in 2006 was Brett Anderson, went in the 2nd rd. (MLB)
PG #9 player Chris Tillman went in rd 2 also (MLB)
PG #14 player Dellin Betances went in rd 8 (Top MLB Prospect)
PG #11 player Mat Latos went in rd 11 (MLB)
PG #6 player Jordan Waldon went in rd 12 (MLB All Star)
PG #19 player was just drafted into the NFL
All the others in the PG top 20 were first rd picks and listed above.

Ricky Vaughn,

Based on your notice, the 2013 rankings have been adjusted. Guess HSBBW does carry some weight. Thanks

Anyone with concerns or suggestions, always feel free to email staff@perfectgame.org

I completely understand, I did not mean to sound bitter. I just couldn't figure it out because a couple kids had never been ranked by PG and had never been to a PG event and had pretty rough weeks at East Cobb which is the only tournament PG would have been able to see them. I was just really hoping to see my cousin jump in there after having a great week at East Cobb, and just recently picking up an offer from a powerhouse ACC school. Like some of you have said, it is hard for PG to see everyone and rankings don't mean as much as attention from college coaches. I did not mean any disrespect to PG as they are the premier scouting service for amateaur baseball.

I see #19 on your list did okay for football.

As time goes on I believe too that once your son is rated and ranked, if he doesnt attemd any additional showcases, new kids come along and will drive your kid down in the rankings. Thats ok too its just the nature of the industry in my opinion. I presume if I would have taken my son to an additonal larger scale PG showcase he would have gained in ranking more than likely.

Mr. PGStaff, I sent you a PM. Thanksfor another GOLDEN POST!

This is a very interesting thread. Are the rankings based solely on performances at PG showcases/tournies? What about the players that are in some of the organizations (eg Premier Baseball) that don't do PG events? Are they excluded from the rankings? Also, who actually does the rankings? Is it just the PG scouts or do they take/use input from college and MLB coaches/scouts...thanks in advance for any feedback!

Johnj314,

Based on what I have read through the years from PG Staff and other oldtimers, attending a PG showcase or PG tournament are not requirements for a player to be ranked. However, I believe that it may help some to be in their radar.

My son's teammate for example never attended a PG showcase and is quite ranked high and got drafted in 12th round. Of course, he has attended a lot of PG tournaments ( which I feel is one of the most competitive events available) and has done well and hence placed in their radar.

For those players who are not blue chippers, it may take consistent and improving performance through the years in tournaments or showcases that may help them move up the rankings.

There should be a way for players to update PG or other same entities about Non-PG events which maybe substantial for evaluation and hence a more complete picture of a player. This year, they expanded the HS rankings giving more exposure to players.


PG staff will probably have more answers with regards to who scouts and who does all the rankings.

RR23

quote:

This is a very interesting thread. Are the rankings based solely on performances at PG showcases/tournies? What about the players that are in some of the organizations (eg Premier Baseball) that don't do PG events? Are they excluded from the rankings? Also, who actually does the rankings? Is it just the PG scouts or do they take/use input from college and MLB coaches/scouts...thanks in advance for any feedback!

johnj314,

I'll try to answer your questions...

Are the rankings based solely on performances at PG showcases/tournies?

No, but we must see a player in order to rank him where we think he belongs. The vast majority, somewhere around 80% of all players drafted have been to PG events, so that narrows things down a lot. Many of the other 20% are well known in their area and we make sure we see them. Many of these will be at other big events during the year.

What about the players that are in some of the organizations (eg Premier Baseball) that don't do PG events?

We actually try to cover the country. We send scouts on the road to see high school games. We scout most every event that is well known to have lots of talent, Area Codes, East Coast Pro, Tournament of Stars and yes Premier, too. However many of the nations very top summer and fall teams are out recruiting top players year around. Most of those teams do attend PG events and then we see the players.

Are they excluded from the rankings?

Absolutely not, no one is excluded from the rankings. But we do need to know the player exsists.

Also, who actually does the rankings? Is it just the PG scouts or do they take/use input from college and MLB coaches/scouts?

Only PG people do the final rankings. However, all input is helpful and welcome. We have hundreds of associates all around the country that report to us. We work closely with several MLB scouting departments. We work closely with many of the top colleges. And the PG Scouting department is the biggest one in baseball, with well over 50 scouts. It is possible to make mistakes and we have. It is very rare that we completely miss a player all together. They might not have attended a PG event, but we have them in the database more often than not.

Just as I'm typing this I got a call from a former scouting director and current VP in the front office for another MLB club. He was at a game out east and someone brought up the name of a 2012 RHP from San Diego. He couldn't remember if he had seen this kid somewhere and wanted to know more about him. Simple... I just went into the database and gave him a full report on the kid.

This stuff happens a lot, nearly every day. Earlier today it was the recruiting coordinater of a Big12 College asking for information. Yesterday the head coach of a SEC college that played in this year's World Series. There's a lot of communication between baseball people. The days of hiding talent are pretty much past history.

If someone is really good, we are more than likely going to hear about it. Once we hear about a player from a reliable source, we're going to get someone out there to see him. A player would almost have to try to hide. It still does happen once in a great while, though.

The tough part about ranking players is that there are thousands of parents who truly believe their son should be ranked in the top 500, but there are only 500 spots. If he isn't, there must be something wrong with the system. Mistakes are made, that's for sure, but there is no criteria used outside of what we truly think.

It's not about politics. It's not about money. It is not about attending a certain event or events. We just have to know who the talented player is. Then he might end up in the rankings, but we have many very talented players who attend our own events that do not make it into the rankings.

Sorry, if I took this a bit too far.

That is why PG is the best.

quote:

Originally posted by jdawg_24:
That is why PG is the best.

+1 Thanks