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Originally posted by schwammi:
Stats - wow....I am a little surprised you'd be the one calling me out.
I wasn’t at all trying to “call you out”, but I can understand how you might take it that way, and apologize if that’s how you took it.
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I know you have a solid system, and I am surprised you did not jump in with some percentages of strikeouts on fb vs curve for your teams. You are very detailed and precise, so I thought for sure you had some statistical insight that mirrored what I teach (or contradicted it).
I would gladly do that, if I had the data to do it with. Evidently you haven’t read enough of my stuff to know I don’t believe in charting pitch types or locations. At least without the help of the technology the ML uses. Because of that, I have never, nor will I ever gather or analyze that kind of data. Others can do it all they wish, but I’ll just stick to things I can guarantee a 95% or better chance of accuracy and validity.
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While you are calling me out, he was a career .394 hitter at the varsity level, so you can imply what you want. I only know what we talked about in the car, and what I talked to my other players about. I maintain that hitting the best pitch you are going to see is the best approach.
Again, I wasn’t at all “calling you out”. In fact, I have no doubt at all that as a player he progressed at a far above average rate. But the point I was trying to make was, there’s no way anyone can pick out any single factor as the one and only thing that caused a leap forward. Or back for that matter.
As for the “hitting the best pitch you are going to see philosophy”, if you’re trying to use that as some kind of cue or encouragement to the players, that’s one thing. But trying to say the best approach is something that’s impossible to do because going back in time isn’t possible, and without going back in time, there’s no way to compare the pitches. So either you’re meaning something you aren’t saying, or I’m totally misunderstanding you.
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As for lessons learned, he transitioned from a kid who historically led the team in walks to a kid who hit the first pitch. He learned that the patience that allowed him to walk at lower levels put him at too much of a disadvantage against the better pitchers.
That’s something that seems “normal” to me in today’s low level game, and to me it seems as though it would create “lookers” rather than “swingers”. But why do you suppose he started out that way? I seriously doubt it was something he dreamed up all by himself because most kids play the game to swing, not look.
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As for your reply about every strikeout, not true. I have seen curveball for called strike 0-1. Change-up taken for 0-2 or 1-2. And fastball right down the middle swing and miss for a K.
But you don’t know whether the pitch thrown was thrown in that location on purpose. Properly set up, a FB right down the middle may well be the pitcher’s best bet. But the real truth is, when there are 2 strikes on a batter, he’s at a disadvantage no matter what, because now that K becomes a possibility.
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Reality was that the fastball was the best pitch and he missed it. My point was, if you take the best pitch (often 1st pitch FB) just to take a pitch, I think you are putting yourself at a disadvantage. Unfortunately, we didn't chart this and Gamechanger does not have a way to track it.
I never disagreed with your point. In fact, my personal feelings are, hitters shouldn’t lock themselves into a “here and here only” mentality, because it reduces the possibilities.
They don’t have a way to track it because its not possible to compare pitches the way you want to do it without some input from the user. Now if you want to set up the matrix for which pitch is the “best” pitch, it would be a piece of cake to do, but since what you believe and what I believe may be 2 different things, it would be pretty silly to hardwire it into a program.
Try figuring out which pitch in this sequence is the “best” pitch.
2SFB down the middle missed. Curve down the middle fouled. 4SFB down the middle fouled. CU down the middle missed.
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So, you could make the argument that none of it matters and he might have been the same (or better) hitter had he always taken the first pitch, but I saw the transition he went through and I am convinced otherwise. But, that is just my opinion, and the philosophy I use with my teams.
I would never argue that always taking the 1st pitch is a good idea any more than I’d argue always swinging at the 1st pitch was a good idea. I’ll ask again. How was it that he became a “taker” and had to change? Was it his coaches or was it you that led him down that path?
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FYI...same strategy can apply to 3-0. I have won more than one game by giving my hitter a green light on 3-0. It is never "automatic" take on my team because of my philosophy. If we are facing a tough pitcher with nasty stuff, that 3-0 fastball could easily be the best pitch the hitter is going to see. Based on that, my guys know that they will occasionally have the green light on 3-0.
Well, taking on 3-0 is something that can be examined with great precision, so if you say you’ve tracked all the 3-0 counts where the batter didn’t take and you’ve won games because of it, all I can say is, how many games has it cost you?
Since 2007, here’s what’s happened on 3-0 counts, i.e. the 4th pitch finished the AB.
ROE – 2
Hits – 15
Outs – 26
Walks – 282
Ball No AB - 3
Now one way to look at it is, the BA on 3-0 is .349, but the OBP if taking makes that pale in comparison, so why even consider it in a “game on the line” situation?
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Stats -- one more clarification. While we did not track 'the best pitch' statistically, we used it as a way to analyze every at bat. Historically, the at bats where he took 'the best pitch' looking were not as successful as the times he swung at it. Now, simply swinging at that pitch does not assure success because we had more than one discussion about the weak ground out on a change up because he fouled of the fb on the pitch before. Ultimately, you still need to be a good enough hitter to convert that pitch into a base hit (or in the words of Steve Springer - a QUALITY at bat), but I firmly believe that pitch selection is a crucial factor in a successful hitter.
I’m sorry, but I’m totally confused. If you don’t track something, how can you analyze it?
Not only do I not see a way to track it, I don’t’ see a way to identify it, so I’m just a bundle of confusion.
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I'd love to help you with your stats, but I am not quite sure how I would chart it because it depends on both pitch and location to assign a value of "best pitch". And it is complicated because you can't label any pitch as the best pitch until the AB is complete.
Evidently you have the same misgivings I do, and that’s reassuring.
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But sitting in the car on the way home, it is pretty easy to look back and say you flew out to center on a high pitch because you took the FB down the middle on the pitch before.
What do you say when he took a FB down the middle on pitch 2 but screamed a high pitch into the gap for a triple? And that’s the problem. Without tracking every pitch and the results, then looking at the good things as well as the bad, its all nothing but conjecture and looking at things in a way that will fulfill what it is you’re looking to prove/disprove. This numbers stuff isn’t as simple as it looks. LOL!