In another thread I had spoken about looking for some kind of tendency depending on whether the pitcher was ahead, behind, or even in the count. During that discussion, it was brought up that what most people think of as an EVEN count, is when the numbers are equal. IOW, 0-0, 1-1, and 2-2. But while that’s true as far as the literal numbers, its not really true when looking at it from the perspective of whether the count is closer to a K or a BB.
Suppose a batter didn’t swing? It would only take 3 pitches for a K, but 4 for a BB. So if you look at it as what counts are a pitcher closer to something good for him as opposed to something bad, things take on a whole new perspective.
Pitcher even in the count, i.e. if the batter doesn’t swing, the number of pitches it would take for either a K or a BB is the same.
1-0
2-1
3-2
Pitcher behind in the count, i.e. if the batter doesn’t swing, the number of pitches it would take are less for a BB or than a K.
2-0
3-0
3-1
Pitcher ahead in the count, i.e. if the batter doesn’t swing, the number of pitches it would take for either a K is less than a BB.
0-0
0-1
0-2
1-1
1-2
2-2
Turns out a pitcher is in a lot more favorable counts than not, and is in at least one favorable count every PA. What that means is, pitchers who get in unfavorable counts more, should be kept off the mound as much as possible, and be replaced by pitchers who while they may not have the “stuff”, stay away from more troublesome counts.