Pitchers' first innings

Good post...fun post.  Yup, another reason to love this game!  

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=MLB&year=2013#innng

First inning splits aren't that out of line with the rest of the game numbers for the league as a whole.  

To the extent that they are different I'd expect there are two main factors at work that have little to with SP preparation.  First, relievers as a whole out-perform starters as a whole, so innings in which SP pitch more often should be worse statistically, and the 1st inning is the one in which it's going to be most rare to see a RP.  Second, the first inning is the only inning in which the pitcher is guaranteed to face the hitters on the opposing team in precisely the order which that team thinks is optimal, which ought to bias run scoring slightly in favor of the offense in that inning.

Additionally, any split that looks at starting pitcher performance by inning will necessarily be biased towards worse outcomes early, since every bad start by a SP includes a first inning, but doesn't necessarily include a 2nd/3rd/whatever inning, whereas the better the start is the more likely it is that it includes later innings pitched by the SP that were also good.

To quote Kramer ... you just blew my mind!

There are other factors, too.

It's been a long time, but I can remember heading out there feeling like I didn't have my best stuff.  After struggling through the first, going to sit down for a while, and then heading out there, sometimes the body finds the "on" switch only at that point.  Some days, it just takes a little time to get the tension out and the adrenaline going and be at your best.

For a visiting pitcher, you can add the need to get comfortable on the game mound as another point.  It's not at all unusual for home team bullpen mounds to be sculpted identically to the game mound, while visitors' mounds are intentionally built differently. 

There's also the fact that, for a high level guy like Wainwright, often he'll have a chance to reflect after the first inning on what he and his catcher saw from the opposing batters, which might tip them off as to the approach the other team has decided to take with him that day.  So they adjust. 

And then he gets an inning or two facing the lower half of the order, maybe (in an NL game) the opposing pitcher, and voila, suddenly he's on a roll.

" in precisely the order which that team thinks is optimal"

I have very strong opinions on this matter as well. But that's a topic for another day.

Originally Posted by Midlo Dad:

…For a visiting pitcher, you can add the need to get comfortable on the game mound as another point.  It's not at all unusual for home team bullpen mounds to be sculpted identically to the game mound, while visitors' mounds are intentionally built differently. …

I’m not saying that isn’t true, but do you have any proof what-so-ever of it? That kind of thing used to happen quite frequently, but in today’s world at the ML level, it seems like a real stretch to me.

That stuff was awesome!

Most pitchers know when they leave the bullpen what pitches are working and which need adjustments and which they need to shelve for another game. Also they need to control the adrenaline.

Sometimes its just a matter of settling in.   Waino is an experienced starter, maybe  he had trouble with some pitches or his game plan needed adjusting (all pitchers should have a game plan). 

I agree with midlodad about adjusting to the mound as well.

If anyone thinks that the pitchers job is easy, they don't have a pitcher!   FWIW, I was at a milb stadium where the visitors bull pen was situated where they couldn't even watch the game. The visitors always have the disadvantage.