Projectability out of college

For the most part, organizations like projectable kids out of HS most as they prefer to do the training and get them acclimated to the pro ball environment.  This is one of the main reasons kids out of HS have more leverage and get higher signing bonuses than those drafted out of college.   Note too that those "kids" (young men) drafted out of college tend to be on a faster track than the HS kids due to maturity and experience, and being on a faster track, they also may not last quite as long if performance isn't up to what is projected.

Hope this answers you question about the "difference" you were alluding to?

A college (four year) kid should be more polished, not so much projectable. If they're the same in skill/ability on rawness, then the HS kid is going to get a better offer/drafted higher if all things are equal (which they aren't, but that's another story). 

Truman had a good point on a short vs. long leash. A college arm/bat is expected to move quicker than a HS arm/bat. Which can be good for the college guy because he gets pushed and gets an opportunity quicker than the HS kid, but is also bad since he's on the ropes quick.

I think the above answers are on the money.  Speaking of money, coming out of HS, that  should be a consideration for signing or not signing. A player out of HS has at least 4-5 years on the leash. Unless he received a significant amount of money, chances are the money will be gone.   

These questions always come up this time of year.  I think that its something to discuss with your son, but chances are he will be better off doing his growing up in college rather than in milb.

Recently I was with a first round pick who signed out of HS at an event at sons former HS.  It was a very difficult decision until they put late first round  money in front of him. He was drafted in 2012, just got his first invite for spring training. Talk about being projectable!!!!

 He was one of the top 50 HS players of 2012.  

FWIW...

A) When reviewing the data from the past 15 years, there is a significant difference between POs and position players. Let me explain the findings:

1. A HS position player who is an early round draft pick and decides to go to college will most likely not improve his draft position. In fact, the data shows that his draft position out of college decreases significantly.
2. A PO in the same situation will either improve, stay the same, or decline, i.e., there's little if any correlation. 
3. A HS position player who is NOT an early round draft pick and decides to go to college will improve his draft position.

This is not anecdotal: it's the data speaking. Any personal observations need to be compared to the data.

B) A draft-eligible collegiate player has less projectability than a HS player. Time is the great arbiter of projectability, so time spent at the collegiate level reduces the guesswork to projectability.

C) Yes: this needs to be discussed in great detail with your son, but as well with your son's advisor/agent (with the recent NCAA rule change, I don't know if we can now call an advisor an agent).

D) Always use the Lifetime Value (LTV) of a degree in a certain major from university X, and not a generic degree, when comparing long term dollars. Example: which provides the greatest revenue stream until age 65:

• Assume 18yo HS player signs for bonus X, plays five years professionally, goes back to college, gets degree in major Y at university Z and enters the workforce at age 27 (or pick a number)
• Assume 21yo college player signs for bonus X, plays 2-3 years professionally (remember: shorter window), then enters the workforce at age 23-4 with same academic credentials.

There are many, many other factors to consider,  but the aforementioned is a good quantitative start.

joemktg posted:

FWIW...

A) When reviewing the data from the past 15 years, there is a significant difference between POs and position players. Let me explain the findings:

1. A HS position player who is an early round draft pick and decides to go to college will most likely not improve his draft position. In fact, the data shows that his draft position out of college decreases significantly.
2. A PO in the same situation will either improve, stay the same, or decline, i.e., there's little if any correlation. 
3. A HS position player who is NOT an early round draft pick and decides to go to college will improve his draft position.

This is not anecdotal: it's the data speaking. Any personal observations need to be compared to the data.

B) A draft-eligible collegiate player has less projectability than a HS player. Time is the great arbiter of projectability, so time spent at the collegiate level reduces the guesswork to projectability.

C) Yes: this needs to be discussed in great detail with your son, but as well with your son's advisor/agent (with the recent NCAA rule change, I don't know if we can now call an advisor an agent).

D) Always use the Lifetime Value (LTV) of a degree in a certain major from university X, and not a generic degree, when comparing long term dollars. Example: which provides the greatest revenue stream until age 65:

• Assume 18yo HS player signs for bonus X, plays five years professionally, goes back to college, gets degree in major Y at university Z and enters the workforce at age 27 (or pick a number)
• Assume 21yo college player signs for bonus X, plays 2-3 years professionally (remember: shorter window), then enters the workforce at age 23-4 with same academic credentials.

 

There are many, many other factors to consider,  but the aforementioned is a good quantitative start.

Need to keep in mind that a player's "draft position"  is affected by perceived signability much as projectability.  I mention this because most often there really isn't a direct correlation between how projectable a player is and  and a draft position.   Given two players that are equally projectable, the player that's more signable is much more likely to be taken earlier than the other.  Looking as two players equally projectable, but one is HS the other out of college and both are now equally signable, the HS player with more likely go in an earlier draft position.

Good point too on (B)

Truman posted:

Need to keep in mind that a player's "draft position"  is affected by perceived signability much as projectability.  

No doubt. And many factors go into that one as well, including flexibility, stubbornness, etc.. 

joemktg posted:

Truman posted:

Need to keep in mind that a player's "draft position"  is affected by perceived signability much as projectability.  

No doubt. And many factors go into that one as well, including flexibility, stubbornness, etc.. 

And his agent!

Re: draftability/signability

A friend's son was Gatorade Player of the Year in his state in high school. His father told him he's going to college. The word got out. I'm guessing if a known college coach tells his son he's going to college there won't be a changing of the mind. He wasn't drafted

After three years the kid was selected in the first round. He didn't improve by 40+ rounds over three years. It would have been a waste of a pick out of high school. I was surprised he wasn't selected late and received a big offer as a long shot.