Quiz - Base Running

Very valid point. It just seems to me the 1-2 tag out is such a simple play. The P will have plenty of time, where as the 1-6-3 is a little more rare and he might feel rushed and airmail it.Either way makes sense to me. Personal preference.

Let's cut to the chase here.  You want the defense to make the play at the plate.  Period.  If they concede the run that is their decision.  And in many cases that may be the right thing for them to do.  But I think what Swampboy is trying to convey is that the runner has no decision to make.  It is the defense that has to think about score, outs etc.

 

Fair enough.

I await PGStaff's ruling (knowing that I've given myself no wiggle room if I'm wrong).

 

See I just think that with no outs, I want the defense to attempt the 1-6-3. Now if I have a godawful slow runner at the plate that factors in, too. With 1-out we're almost always breaking, unless I have a guy that can fly at the plate that won't get doubled up.

 

I think I just treasure my runners at 3b a lot, because it seems there are so many screwy ways to score in HS baseball.

 

This year we've scored from 3b without a ball put in play on:

Passed ball

Wild pitch

C bad return throw to P

pick attempt at 3b from P

pick attempt at 3b from C

stolen home 

balk

 

And we're not talking about crappy teams (not all of them any way).

PG:  Why do I get the sinking feeling we're going to be discussing Markov chains in the immediate future?  If so, hang on....I need to get another cup of coffee (and my propeller hat).

I get the feeling PG is having way too good a time laughing at us all to come back just yet.

I thought this might create some interesting discussion.

 

I should say that I always believe in the percentages, however we all know that sometimes the percentages don't work.

 

Regarding the baserunning question.  Here is a few points to consider about the most likely potential results...

 

Pitcher turns the DP, runner at 3B stays at 3B

Pitcher turns the DP, runner at 3B scores.

 

Pitcher throws to HP, runner is out, runners now at 1B and 2B.

 

Pitcher throws to HP, runner is out in a rundown, runner starting at 1B could be at 3B.

 

Pitcher sees runner at 3B is not going, he throws to start DP to 2B, runner now tries to score and is thrown out. This is the worst outcome.

 

The runner on 3B should break right away to the plate and actually force the pitcher to make a decision. 

 

With 0 outs, the pitcher either turns the DP, run scores. Or he gets the out on the runner at 3B, leaving runners at 1B and 2B with one out.

 

With 1 out, the runner at 3B is hoping the pitcher makes a play on him because the result of the DP is inning over.

 

So the only real possible debate with 0 outs regarding the runner at 3B breaking to the plate is which is the better percentage play... 2 outs and a runner on 3B or 1 out and runners at 1B and 2B.

 

Yes, guess it would make a difference depending on level of play.  There could be other variables that could change the percentages.  For example the next two hitters are your top two guys.  But really no matter how you look at it, the percentages will always favor the runner at 3B trying to score or at least draw a throw. What could change the defensive thinking and go for the out at HP is if the game had two dominant pitchers and the game looked like that one run was enough to win the game or put the game away. 

 

If someone prefers the percentages of a runner at 3B and 2 outs over 1st and 2nd with 1 out, then bunt them over.  Wait, we all know that is a bad percentage play unless you have a bad hitter at the plate.

 

The correct answer, I would say from HS level on up is A, almost always.

 

 

Since I get to imagine anything...My player on first was stealing second because we have incredible speed, The third base runner stands still and so the pitcher glances and then wheels to second... he is shocked that the runner from first is almost there rushes his throw and it is wide of the bag pulling the shortstop off and everyone is safe.  Bases loaded, no one out and I am once again the top candidate for coach of the year.

 

But in the real world A all the way...

PGstaff asked this question just a little over 6 years ago.  His answer hasn't changed!

       
       
That's funny, we could have cheated!  PG, do I get extra credit for mentioning I don't like to do things that wouldn't be done at the next level as you did 6 years ago?  And if you still have that 100 question test I would be more than interested in a copy!

3FingeredGlove,

 

That is funny, I forgot all about posting that.

 

Maybe it is the old BS test.  If you never BS, you don't have to worry about remembering what you said. The actual truth is easy to remember.

I know one of our players kept that test, but he looked and couldn't find it either.

 

It was pretty much all about different situations and technique.  Some were fairly simple, others were very hard and some had multiple correct answers.  Nobody played for us until they passed the test.  Some took the test several times before passing.

Here is that chart from 2013.

http://isaacmiller.co/mlb-data-2013-run-expectancy/

Happened in season opener yesterday. 

 

Down 2-0, Runner on 3B, one out. Ball hit back (a little to right of pitcher). Coach sent him. Pitcher decided to come home instead of easy out at 1B. Catcher bobbled ball(not the greatest throw) and runner was safe. 

just catching up with all this.  Helping me out A LOT with a question I posted on a later thread.  Thanks!

This just happened in Cards vs Pirates.

 

Bourjos on 3rd, Heyward on first. Nobody out. Sharp grounder to first. Pirate first baseman Alvarez stabs it, steps on bag and fires home -- wild.

 

Bourjos was running all the way. Run scored, Heyward on second (He had slid into second, thinking Alvarez may throw down for the tag double plan, so he couldn't make third).

 

So in this case, running all the way resulted in:

 

- one out

- one run

- man on second

 

We recently had the HS baseball team over for a team dinner. I asked them this question. They were as all over the place as we were!

 

Would love to see more of these kinds of situational questions  

Ball hit to the 1st baseman is different than ball hit back to pitcher. I still think if it's hit right back to pitcher you head back to 3rd or freeze depending on how far off the bag you are. But, that's just me.

I forgot that part of the q8uestion. Doh!