Reclassification Rush

In most cases, it does help the average player become better as they are bigger and stronger and more mature.  Especially in today's culture, many think it will allow some of the clutter in rosters to clear some.

I find it sort of odd.  I could be wrong, but my guess is that most of those who choose to reclassify are above average+ guys who won't have much to worry about no matter what year they graduate.  I've watched what's happened over the last year with 2021s and NO above average player was left without at least a solid home.  Most ended up right where their talent says they should.  This is a big decision so it stands to reason that anyone who is willing to do it is awfully serious about baseball.  If you're awfully serious about baseball, what are the odds that you're not very good and really need the help that can come with reclassifying?

I would disagree with the premise that it does not help the above average player.  Many of you would put my son in the above average category and yet we held him back in the 8th grade.  He was still 18 when he graduated.  I'm not sure it helped him as much find a place because he was recruited hard before he was even in high school.  But it did help him prepare for college and be ready to compete day one.  He had gotten some innings last year at an SEC school.  But this year, as I have looked at rosters and talked to coaches and players, there will be a lot of freshmen at P5 schools that in previous years may have gotten playing time that will not see the field.  The average SEC school had over 40 players this spring with most having 50 available players at the beginning of the fall.  There will be a lot of freshmen in the SEC schools that will not see the field this year who are not hurt.  Most of them in years past would have seen some game time but when you have lots of players that would have gone to the draft in normal years that are still around and even some 6th year seniors it is hard to find playing time.  Son's school seems to have only 3-4 freshmen that will see very much playing time.  I know that could change but that seems to be the case.  And when you think that playing wise they are in the same year as guys who have been in school a year and already done 2 falls and part of a spring it is tough.  The other catch is there are a few guys on every SEC team that would have been drafted out of high school that did not so they are on campus.

If you go down levels, I don't think it is much different because there are so many players moving down levels.  Several of my son's friends that were at P5 schools last year moved on and are now at jucos and even NAIA/mid-major D1/D2/D3 schools.  They were P5 guys who are now beating out the guys who thought they were a lock at certain positions and even some of those P5 guys are now legit 2 way guys when they would have never been at the P5 schools.

@Around_The_Horn posted:

In my small piece of the world I am seeing a large number of current 8th graders starting to reclassify.  

Does reclassification really help players to get to the next level? Or does it hurt the main goal of raising strong confident adults that know how to handle the challenge that life throws at them?

Good questions.  I think the answer will vary dramatically depending on who you ask, their perspective on college and pro athletics, academics and what their 8th grader's professional goal is....more likely what the parent's goal is for their 8th grader.   All 3 of my kids knew what they wanted to do in 8th grade and they are doing it now.   Yes, I realize that is crazy, and yes I'm very fortunate.  The thought of red-shirting them for athletics never ever crossed anybody's mind.  However, if they had struggled academically then I think we would have looked at red-shirting or reclassifying for those reasons.

We were very fortunate to have a former MLB player living across the street from us.   My kids knew him and his family rather well.    I think his stories and experiences caught my kids attention and they realized just how difficult it is to be a professional baseball player.  My kid's skillsets and passions were in other places. 

JMO

In SoCal, there are a lot of kids who are being sent to sports academies and being held back as early as 5-6th grade. They are on diets, lifting(1 rep maxes) and practicing at their school along with their travel teams.  It will be interesting to see how things work out. On a side note, I’ve seen some top prospects reclassify up a year to get to the draft earlier(Blaze Jordan and a couple others I forgot).

We had a thread about this a couple months ago. A coach I'm very close with was told by an SEC coach, "if you're a stud, reclass and let the dust settle. If you're not then just enroll in school and start getting on with life." Now I don't know if he was saying that selfishly because he wants that stud player to start his program a year early or if he is looking out for the interest of the kid.

FWIW, I see a lot of very average HS players reclassing. I would say the ones I know well are average academically as well.

2025prospect and TerribleBPthrower,

Interesting stuff.   For the life of me, I don't understand all this.  Possibly I need Dr. Rick's help as I feel like I'm becoming my parents.   I can't figure out why parents would make athletic development calls for 5-6th graders for the possibility of a slight future edge in high school baseball, or recruiting.  My old man would have told any SEC college coach who suggested re-classifying me back in 1980 to get "freaking lost", and frankly I would have said the same thing about my kids today.   My oldest did have an SEC preferred walk-on offer with academic money, so we had experience telling an SEC coach to get lost .  ;-)

I can definitely see that today's parents are spending significantly more of their disposable income on youth sports than they did 40 years ago.  Where does it end and are we really helping our kids with this approach?  If your above examples are true, this has become absolutely ridiculous in society.   Maybe it is around me and I don't see it, but I don't recall seeing this 5-10 years ago when my kids were playing high school and college baseball.   I hope it isn't true.   Sorry,  I had to vent a little.   I truly don't understand this.

@fenwaysouth I agree with you. At 5-6th grade, lots of kids are only playing because they are forced. The kids I see being held back at 5-6th grade are decent-good on the small field with borderline illegal 2017 CF-Zens. Recently I’ve been seeing many of these “12-13u” studs start declining, especially when forced to use wood.

Does reclassification really help players to get to the next level?

The quick/easy/ugly answer is YES.  That is why individuals chose to do so, but it is an extremely near-sighted approach. One of the pitfalls to being held back happens at the next level. They still have to prove they can compete once the playing field levels back out.

(On a side note I haven't seen any kids repeat at 5-6th grade? What usually happens is the kids are choice to another school with a decent sports program and then repeat 8th grade. This isn't isolated to just baseball either. Football and basketball are notorious for this as well.) 

@2025prospect posted:

@fenwaysouth I agree with you. At 5-6th grade, lots of kids are only playing because they are forced. The kids I see being held back at 5-6th grade are decent-good on the small field with borderline illegal 2017 CF-Zens. Recently I’ve been seeing many of these “12-13u” studs start declining, especially when forced to use wood.

This is why recruiters/scouts (or really anybody with common sense) could care less how good the kid is on a small field.

@ReluctantO'sFan posted:

This is why recruiters/scouts (or really anybody with common sense) could care less how good the kid is on a small field.

Love it!  This should  be posted on every youth baseball field.

For our generation, birthdate matters.  Little league birthdate cutoff was July 31st.   You were almost twice as likely to make the MLB if you were born in August vs. July.  If you were born in August, you became a larger, better developed stud.  This holds true for the current travel ball cutoff but gets complicated with the Graduation year.

We thought about reclassing for about 5 seconds. Son is a late birthday, super late bloomer for his class. But, then thought he is a straight A student in all honors classes (humble brag) it just doesn't make any sense to hold him back.

I'm with you TxballDad. I know several kids who it makes sense with. I also know several where the parents are completely delusional. My son is a May bday and was always on the small side. He's caught up now, but was always tiny. He's also got a 160+ IQ and is crushing his AP classes and ahead of everyone in his class academically. He hasn't talked about being an MLB player in years, but does want to play in college. Now he talks about working for Elon Musk and Space X.

Right now he's probably above average for 2023 but certainly not a standout IMO. If he were a 2024 he would be. We saw the gap in 2024 talent a few years ago but it would be a major disservice to him (besides the fact he would have no interest in doing it).

jetsr71 - Good data points, and I understand you are just sharing info.

This is directed at everybody not you....should MILLIONS of parents redshirt MILLIONS of kids for an "infinitesimal chance" to make a major league roster in 10 years.   Why can't more people try to get pregnant in December so they get those wonderful-stud August babies?   MLB roster numbers aren't looking so huge whether you are a US or international player...possibly a better chance of winning $1M on a scratcher.  Not only do you have to be an incredible athlete, you have to have incredible timing, luck, and your value has to be in check with the front office...this is a business after all.  All of this has to be going your way...this is what I learned from my former MLB neighbor. 

PS...My birthday is in June.  Clearly, my parents weren't paying attention or had ideas of me becoming a college or professional athlete.  Yet it happened.

Just my thoughts.....

So let me get this cheat code straight for today's world.......

Step1: Plan birth during the month of May/June (why not everyone's doing it)

Step2: Start KN at 6 (after all he isn't a mature 5 yr old)

Step3: Play 2 years at 12u (Cooperstown nostalgia? Can you ever hit enough hot Zen HRs???)

Step4: Repeat 8th grade (That means he might make Varsity as a freshman, hell he's 15 for crying out loud and has played 1 sport for half of his entire existence.)

These 4 steps are crucial to the immediate overall development of your son's baseball career; however, buyer beware as long term consequences take root. If followed completely your son will be destined to ride the pine while a younger kid with much more upside from the DR takes all the game time reps.

ps. this was all sarcasm....but honestly there is real truth behind it

Another point that drives me crazy with reclassing grade level is how many grades can play in 1 age bracket. I've seen teams with up to 3 grade levels, and the real kicker is that all the kids have the same birth year? Hurts my head just thinking about it.

@fenwaysouth posted:

2025prospect and TerribleBPthrower,

Interesting stuff.   For the life of me, I don't understand all this.  Possibly I need Dr. Rick's help as I feel like I'm becoming my parents.   I can't figure out why parents would make athletic development calls for 5-6th graders for the possibility of a slight future edge in high school baseball, or recruiting.  My old man would have told any SEC college coach who suggested re-classifying me back in 1980 to get "freaking lost", and frankly I would have said the same thing about my kids today.   My oldest did have an SEC preferred walk-on offer with academic money, so we had experience telling an SEC coach to get lost .  ;-)

I can definitely see that today's parents are spending significantly more of their disposable income on youth sports than they did 40 years ago.  Where does it end and are we really helping our kids with this approach?  If your above examples are true, this has become absolutely ridiculous in society.   Maybe it is around me and I don't see it, but I don't recall seeing this 5-10 years ago when my kids were playing high school and college baseball.   I hope it isn't true.   Sorry,  I had to vent a little.   I truly don't understand this.

At a Bar Mitvah (boys were all in the 13yo range like the kid in the event) I was hanging on the deck having a drink with a bunch of sports dads. Their kids were going to play a high school sport at best. It turned out several of them had their kids in agility training. Not one had reached puberty yet. I was going to ask if it helped. Knowing the kids I wasn’t sure I could say it without laughing.

I waited until after puberty with my daughter for agility. She was like a calf taking its first steps agility wise. She went backwards in coordination for a while. She was 5’10 115 until she started filling out. She also did speed training to learn how to run properly. Almost lost her (played softball) to outdoor track she enjoyed it so much. For my son agility was part of FASST (fitness, agility, speed, strength training) through high school.

We resisted recruiting efforts from a private to have him transfer and repeat 9th grade. It was absurd to have a kid in the gifted program repeat a grade.

If I had a 2025 I would consider red shirting solely to avoid these Covid Rosters (even allow time for funding of these programs to return).  In our area, where a fair amount of school has been remote, it might not be a bad idea for even a strong student. We’ll see when Lefty gets his AP scores back this summer how he stack up against kids who have been in person for the majority of the year.

My kid will still play "what if" game on reclassifying. Once after a couple of glorious single malts I did entertain him for a minute but ended up telling him it was not in the cards as you were too smart to repeat a grade and I am way too cheap to pay for another year of school. I did offer the consolation if he goes pro the younger age would ultimately benefit him...not sure if he took that as tongue in cheek.

I forgot to add this one. Local kid around me has an early September birthday. Late start to begin and now is being held back again. Should be an 8th grader but now is a 6th grader. Will turn 19 at the very beginning of his senior year.

Ok in Texas I know a good few kids starting high school at 16. Like 16 as a freshman Driving in 😂. My poor kiddo is going to start HS now turning 14 he’s the youngest in the grade will graduate HS at 17!
Everyone but 3 kids I know didn’t reclass. They did it for athletics not grades or maturity. A

@2025prospect posted:

I forgot to add this one. Local kid around me has an early September birthday. Late start to begin and now is being held back again. Should be an 8th grader but now is a 6th grader. Will turn 19 at the very beginning of his senior year.

My kid is a 2024 and will still be 17 yrs old when he graduates from high school.
We have no plans to reclassify.

From my experience only: The majority of kids who reclass or are hold backs are already strong and talented high school players that would have no problem competing with players their age. To each their own.

I will say this - I've seen several "holdbacks" in my area at strong west coast D1 programs mysteriously disappear from the team roster prior to or during the season and/or end up transferring to a JC.

The less physically mature kid that had to fight/battle to keep up with older kids during his high school years has a unique built-in toughness that serves them very well when they show up to college as freshman. For the hold-backs, showing up to a ballfield where everyone is older and mostly bigger is a new phenomenon for them. The lack of playing time and being stuck behind other players (juniors and seniors on the depth chart) is also new to them - something that they never experienced in high school or travel ball.    

Well, my nephew just failed to make his HS baseball team as a freshman.  He is a December birthday and was young for his grade; apparently he was deemed too small and not throwing hard enough.  He's growing now, so he'll probably have the size next year.  I don't think it would have occurred to his parents to hold him back for sports, but this is the result, he's pretty upset.  I don't know if he'll keep playing and try again next year, or move on.

I don't really think December is young for a grade. He'll turn 18 middle of his senior year. He's right in the middle of his grade. Personally, I look at summer birthdays as the young kids for their grades. My son is May and while he was the youngest kid on the team last year, I never looked at him as young for his grade. I do consider him a late bloomer as he's added several inches and 30+ pounds since last year. This is all just my opinion though.

@anotherparent Ugh, that sucks.  While my son made his first high school cut, he made the freshmen/reserve team his freshman year.  We were shell shocked, to be frank.  Lots of people pegged my son and one other kid to have decent shots at making varsity as freshmen.  So we went in liking his chances of making varsity and feeling VERY good that he'd at least make JV.  Nope.  Reserve.  There is little doubt the coaches weren't impressed with his size.  Was probably 5'7"ish.  They barely looked at him.  But he sucked it up quickly and went to work.  Performed well and got moved up to the JV team that summer when high school ball turns into Legion ball around here.  5 guys were moved up and competed for one starting spot in the OF.  My son is primarily a SS, but he worked and locked down that starting spot quickly.  Spring baseball of his sophomore season rolls around and he makes varsity (one of only 2 sophomores).  Halfway through the spring, he became their starting SS.   Just one year after running into the buzz saw of making the reserve team.  I'm not bitter, nor is my son.  We both understand and appreciate why the bigger frames are admired and the little guys are often dismissed.  Despite having D1 meaureables and solid interest from some D1s, the D1 offers never came and he's going the JUCO route.  There's little doubt that at 5'9", he's found himself in a similar situation to when he got to high school.  The beautiful part is, he's worked his way up through and against the odds already, so he knows the road.  Of course, it'll be much more difficult at the college level, but I like his chances.  Given a decent sample size, he's always been able to get what he wanted through hard work and determination.

So my advice for your nephew would be to get to work.  He's got a year to prove them wrong.  As the dad of a littler guy, I hope he goes for it and I'm pulling for him.

Danj, With my twin boys being 15 and generally the smallest players on the team at about 5'6". I have had similar experiences. It's always the same story with every team for them. The six foot plus guys start the season while my boys ride the bench. After about four games they bring in one of my boys and we don't win but we score more runs. After about six games, they bring in the second boy. By the end of the season my boys have scored 25 % + of the total team runs, have taken 30+ bags and have the highest batting averages. Our high school tryouts are Monday. I already know how the season will progress as the afforementioned story will play out again. But that's ok, the boys also know what to expect and they are fine with it. They have learned to be patient. Sometimes I wonder though, does the coach want to have a winning season? Or, does he have the capacity to learn? Just some things that run through my head. Beyond all the politics and misconceptions though, I am just glad they are able to play the game and be successful.   

I love this thread (and other similar threads).  It's encourages me whenever my son starts complaining about our decision to put him 1 year ahead back in 3rd grade when everyone else is holding back their kids.  He is a 2023 that will not turn 18 until after he starts college.  Even worse, he is on the small side compared to other kids his age, much less compared to the kids in his grade.

Funny story from this past weekend.  My son is the starting varsity catcher (small private school in the lowest classification in the state).  They played a top 25 ranked public school from the highest classification with big kids (not surprised if some/most of those kids reclassed).  Their 2 catchers are over 6'2".  The home plate umpire told my son during the game that he is too small to be a catcher.  After holding his own during the game, he went to the HP umpire to shake his hand after the game and told the umpire that he doesn't think he's too small to be a catcher.  Umpire responds "you are right, you are not"...

However, seeing his peers getting calls from colleges and being recruited left and right, he can't help but get frustrated and ask the "what ifs" if he was 1 grade lower.  I do agree with everyone here that the lessons and work ethics he learned having to always fight to keep up with the bigger guys is probably a big part of why he is where he is now.

Anyway, I needed the encouragement from this thread that we made the right decision to not even consider reclassing.  Most importantly, my son is taking mostly all honors and AP classes, has a 4.0 GPA, and fits right along socially with his peers.

Our son has an August birthday and is one of the youngest kids in class - will graduate at 17. Some kids with August birthdays were held back when starting school, but we could not wait for him to start the Pre-K and save us $25K/year in childcare in DC So, off to school he went at 4. The thought of holding him back at that time never occurred to us. Later, he was a slow grower and faced some setbacks between 12 and 15, when most of his friends were bigger and stronger and were leaping ahead of him athletically for a couple of years. When I look at pictures of him his freshman year, he still looks like a baby. It all evened out after sophomore year, when he grew and physically matured. He is now 6'2" and 200 lbs and is headed to a great school where he will get to play baseball. He doesn't have any aspirations to play professionally, so maybe that makes a difference in people's decision making. Our daughter is in the same boat - September birthday and slow grower; has always been one of the youngest kids in class. She is starting to hit the age where most girls around her are taller and more physically developed and I know that may affect her in sports for a couple of years, but we definitely will not be holding her back. She'll just need to work on her technical skills until she starts growing and we know she will end up where she is meant to be, college-wise. When I played volleyball back in the day (in a sport that values height), the best girl on our team was also the smallest. She even played in Junior Olympics. So, size is not everything all the time. But I definitely see kids reclassifying left and right in our area, for baseball, basketball, and football. It would not be something our family would consider, but, I guess, it's a personal decision.

How many 8th Graders actually want to repeat 8th Grade? This is mostly nutty Dad stuff.  The very best players play up, not down.  The very very best players reclassify up (Blaze Jordan) or figure out ways to get drafted early (Bryce Harper).  

A vast majority of these Dads have zero understanding of just how average their kid is, or how many 6.6 60’s there are out there and how many 90+ fastballs there are.

With the pandemic, OK, I get it in terms of the logjam, but that’s gonna be long since cleared out by the time a 2025 is ready for college.  

Now if you are a kid living in the Dominican Republic, trying to escape extreme poverty, do whatever you need to do.  For 97%-99% of Americans, this is about Dad hoping to brag at the water cooler about his kid being the bullpen catcher at big state U.

Having come out the other side of this travel ball world, all of the no doubt Power Five kids that are my son’s age (2021) were no doubt Power Five kids since they were 14 years old.  The rest were mostly D3 players.  For the next no doubt Power Five kids, the only question should be are you going to get drafted in Round 1 or 2, or are you going to college?

The only no doubt Power Five kid from around here in my son’s age group who didn’t end up going Power Five for Baseball stopped playing Baseball because he got a full ride to play Running Back for Wisconsin.  The 2020 kid from Milwaukee who got drafted by the Diamondbacks is one of the best high school Basketball players in Wisconsin state history.  The athletes who end up at big time schools are just at another level entirely.

Just last night I had 3 coaches tell my kiddo he need to reclass. It’s very common not just dads but coaches are pushing it on kids. “You are good” “imagine being great”! As a parent it’s sad and heartbreaking to see your kid confused like mom are we doing the right thing?

My son entered college just as he turned 18, thus was a "young" HS graduate.  We also had a choice to hold him back when young but we never gave it a second thought.  Similar to the above, son was one of the youngest and was on the smaller side (seems like always was given the uniform number 1-3 during local rec ball).  We never ever considered an athletic scholarship since no relative I can think of ever played any college sport for scholarship.  We stressed academics and hoped for something to be awarded based on that.  Note that our focus did change half way through his Jr. season, but that's another story.  Fortunately he was taught at a young age strategies, objectives, and the way baseball is played, thus became (and still is) a student of the game.  What he lacked in physical attributes and talent he made up for it by understanding the game better than others, and both in combination gave him an advantage. At the time I never realized this, thought all baseball players knew how the game is played.  Only while he was playing in college was this specifically brought up by some parents and MLB scouts.  They mentioned his concentration, methodology, and approach seemed to be on a different level, and "how does he do it"?  There are so many variables in athletics as you go up each level including being lucky and in the right place at the right time.  Best of luck in his journey

I really don't care whether my boys play Juco, D1, D2, D3 or if they decide not to play at all in college. It's not a prestige thing for me. I simply want them to get an education and be able to provide for themselves and their future family. If baseball is a way for them to accomplish that goal and they are willing to put in the work I will support them 100%.

@NY posted:

Just last night I had 3 coaches tell my kiddo he need to reclass. It’s very common not just dads but coaches are pushing it on kids. “You are good” “imagine being great”! As a parent it’s sad and heartbreaking to see your kid confused like mom are we doing the right thing?

Who are these coaches?  Are they college coaches?  HS coaches?  Travel coaches?

How many players have the personally helped get to drafted?  Play D1? Play any level of college?

Are these really coaches in the know, or are these dad coaches that are just talking?

I suspect they are the latter, because if they were the former, I imagine they would approach you first so that if you are against it then you would not have the confused kid issue.

@Around_The_Horn posted:

Who are these coaches?  Are they college coaches?  HS coaches?  Travel coaches?

How many players have the personally helped get to drafted?  Play D1? Play any level of college?

Are these really coaches in the know, or are these dad coaches that are just talking?

I suspect they are the latter, because if they were the former, I imagine they would approach you first so that if you are against it then you would not have the confused kid issue.

Travel Team coaches for the bigger scout teams around Houston.
They do have lots of D1 players and did play collage some minor league and Indy league.

I wish they spoke to us and not my too son Directly! My poor son is like I don’t want to repeat 8th grade, my grades are good, my play is very strong, I want to have my friends with me - but when he hears it daily he’s questioning what’s best!

@Trust In Him posted:

We never ever considered an athletic scholarship since no relative I can think of ever played any college sport for scholarship.  We stressed academics and hoped for something to be awarded based on that.

Same for us.  I keep telling him that he should play bec he loves to, not bec he has to (i.e. for scholarship money).  I even told him that I don't mind him going to college to play baseball w/o any athletic scholarship (i.e. just academic scholarship and/or out of my pocket).  That way, he gets to play w/o pressure of maintaining scholarship and purely for the love of the game.  But he looked at me as if I have 4 eyes.  I think a big part of it is not the athletic scholarship itself, but the recognition and validation that comes with being recruited.

just to stoke the fire some more ...

According to his PG profile, this boy (2024 3B/RHP) is a 16 1/2 yr old 9th grader.

In comparison, my 2024 will not turn 15 for another 4 months. My kid says, it's not fair.  Dad says, keep working hard ... and make sure you do your arm care work every day.  Mom asks ... how many AP classes will you take as a HS sophomore next year? When the hsbaseballweb wise men say every journey is different, they know what they are talking about.  Still no plan to reclassify my kid.

I know (of) a kid that reclassified TWICE.  Once to delay graduation (started kindergarten as a 2021 now a 2022) to attract P5s (it worked- great baseball school verballed him) and now he's on with a JUCO a full two years before his graduation in anticipation of getting drafted as if he were a 2020.  I can't even imagine the conversations in that household.

I also know a kid that did it twice. He was a 2023 with my son but a few months older. He’s now a 2025. He is a huge uncoordinated kid. Not really sure what the dad is thinking. He does throw 80 now, so I guess he has that going for him when he’s an freshman next year

My son knows a 2022 who reclassed to a 2024. He is actually a few months older than my kid...I thought it was a typo. I never met the parents but I would love to hear their explanation.

Son had a LHP college teammate who had skipped a year (not sure if it was middle or high school). Worked out OK for him. Graduated with an economics degree and was drafted MLB a few weeks later. Only downfall   ( I guess) was not being able to have a drink with teammates until senior year.

Two interesting articles:

Malcolm Gladwell showed Canadians born in first quarter of the year (January-March) are drafted more frequently. Hockey is 100% based on birth year, not high school class. He attributed success due to coaches favoring the development of bigger, stronger players of equal talent—they get more “ice” or playing time as youths.

http://www.espn.com/espn/page2...y?page=merron/081208

A corollary study by BYU shows player born in last quarter of the year are paid more and score more. These “underdogs” had to work harder on developing skills to compete with larger, more physical players.

https://news.byu.edu/news/stud...re-and-are-paid-more

Maybe a draft expert or scout could weigh in if they prefer to see a 17 year old or 19 year old at the high school draft?

What would be the answer for a college coach that has a player for 3 years (enter fall at 17, leave after junior year at  20; or enter 19, leave at 22). Perhaps at college it is a different answer?!

@Los Angeles 2021 Parent posted:

Maybe a draft expert or scout could weigh in if they prefer to see a 17 year old or 19 year old at the high school draft?

What would be the answer for a college coach that has a player for 3 years (enter fall at 17, leave after junior year at  20; or enter 19, leave at 22). Perhaps at college it is a different answer?!

Have to point out that the first one kind of depends on whether the 17 year old is better than the 19 year old On a more serious note, the answers get convoluted because no 2 kids are the same. The whole thing gets muddy when you start talking about current skill/tools versus what a kid projects. That topic can go in very different directions just by itself.

Also matters to what the philosophy the organization and/or coaching staff prescribes. Would they rather have a bird in hand or 2 in the bush? It's basically risk vs reward, and how much they are willing to gamble to some extent.

@Los Angeles 2021 Parent I actually asked this question this weekend so I can answer as a nosey parent but would also love to hear what others have to say. Out of college, the older player is at a disadvantage in terms of reaching the majors. A 23 year old senior has little leverage in terms of a signing bonus and very little time to prove himself. In theory he is more prepared but statistics show he is less like to reach the majors (see the article I posted below with relevant quotes in italics). Even a 22 junior is at a disadvantage compared to a 21 year old junior. Say he spends a 2-3 seasons in the minors, by the time he's in the majors (if he makes it), he's only got a couple of years before he reaches the statistical peak in his career.

For guys out of HS, extreme youth may be off-putting to some teams because of maturity concerns but the HS guys have a statistical advantage on reaching the majors over college guys. Some if it is because, in theory, the guys who go out of HS are generally top talent. Some of it is related to the statistical peak of a baseball player (just short of 30) and some of it is about the teams looking at players as assets that you either invest in or let go. in their minds, why would you invest in a 28 year old when the next batch is bright-eyed and bushy-tailed and ready to help your team? What I learned was that if you haven't made it to the majors by 26, you will be let go for younger talent that may be equal or slightly less talented than you but has time on his side. Of course there are exceptions. One would be if the team has invested a lot in a player (the more they invested vis-a-vis the signing bonus, the more chances they will give you to succeed) or if you have a special skill or leadership that benefits the team even if you haven't broken through yet.  The other factor is none of this matters if you 17, 18 or 19 year old cannot handle the rigors of minor league life...or the physicality of competing against guys 5, 6, 7 or more years older than him.

The most interesting part of the conclusion is once they make the majors, age has no impact on performance!

Here is the baseball-specific article that discusses draft age: https://digitalcommons.macales...ontext=mathcs_honors

Quote from the article: If a player is drafted as an 18 year old out of high school and begins his pro career in rookie ball– which is a fairly regular occurrence–he is likely to be young for his level. If he enjoys success at this level, great, he can be promoted to A ball. Now, take for example the same 18 year old who struggles in rookie ball. Since he is young for his level he may be given an opportunity the next year to try to prove himself worthy by repeating the level–getting a second chance. If another player were 19 years old when drafted and placed in rookie ball and struggled, the team would be less willing to let the player have another opportunity and he may quickly move down the organizational depth chart at his position. Thus, a player who is younger when drafted may be given extra opportunities in the minors, enabling them to reach the majors more often.....

Similarly, we find that given that a player has been drafted, the younger the player is, the more likely he is to reach the majors. But, given that the player has reached the majors, young and old players appear to perform on similar levels.

@PTWood posted:

Here is the baseball-specific article that discusses draft age: https://digitalcommons.macales...ontext=mathcs_honors

OK, I bite ... the geek in me kept reading ... and kept me digging around a bit

The young author appears to have been a two-way at a HA D3 school in MN, and is now a Sr Quantitative Analyst with the NY Yankees.  Let's get him on the phone here ... now!  We all want to know "Should my kid reclass?"

Okay here is a new one (at least for me).

This weekend heard of a kid currently in 8th grade (class 2025).  Decided to contact PG and “reclassify” to 2026.  But next year he will continue into 9th grade, and fully plans to graduate HS in 2025.  Parents say that he plans to do a gap year after HS so that is why he claims 2026.

I wonder with all the re-classing if PG will face pressure to shift towards age instead of grad year. I personally don’t care one way or the other. But I hear lots of people complain about it

@TerribleBPthrower, that's what basketball had to end up doing for the summer travel/AAU season because it had gotten so out of control. The cut off now is August 31st for any given year.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

I wonder with all the re-classing if PG will face pressure to shift towards age instead of grad year. I personally don’t care one way or the other. But I hear lots of people complain about it

I doubt it.  Grad year classification helps college coaches find players for particular years, they don't care whether a kid is 17 or 20 when he graduates.

I agree for the most part Smitty, but I’ve seen a handful of very strong travel programs (some national) that switched over to calling their team 16u and having a roster of 2024, 2023, and some 2022. I asked a coach of one of them about it and he said it’s the same kids, just re-classed. He’s coached them since they were 13u and his org decided to just go with it instead shuffling everyone around.

You know eventually your going to have to play your hand. You can only bluff 7-2 so many times, before some calls. Then it just might be time to reconsider some life choices.

Whoah! Found out last night a stud 2022 is going to reclass to my sons 2023 team. Awesome kid and family. He's a late April birthday, so a little younger for his grade, but not what I'd consider young. Over the past few weeks the summer team has added a few kids from national teams and has gone from being pretty good what I think will be a very competitive team against top national teams.

Aaaannnndddd, found out yesterday another 2022 reclassified to my son’s 2023 team. Solid MIF and a great kid. He was also a younger 2022

Ok. Reclassifying might be getting out of hand in California. Kid has a June birthday and started very late for his age so he is a 2026 but should be a 2025. Just found out he has been held back and is now a 2027. Will be 14 years old in June, probably for the last couple weeks of school. 14 year old 6th grader. 16 years old at 8th grade graduation. Will he even be able to attend high school for his senior year?

The last I knew the rules are state independent. Some states don't allow kids to play if they turn 20 during the school year. Others don't allow kids to play if they turn 20 during the season.

Wanted to add this to the discussion, something I think is extremely worthy to think about. Yes, young athletes who are fortunate enough to be on the older side of the cutoff for baseball and other sports tend to be more mature, more physically developed and more sought after by coaches. However, when those who are lucky enough reach the professional stage, it is the others who were on the younger side and had to compete with the semi-older players who tend to show greatness and become stars. Why? I think because of the adversity they endured, especially when they reach a stage where they are competing against reclassified players. It really weeds out the kids who have true talent, desire and grit, and those who don’t. I think you need to think about this when you reclassify a child purely for future athletic reasons. In many cases, it’s like keeping kids in a slow-pitch hitting cage or lowering the basketball rim to 8 feet. Sure, they’ll dominate but if they’re destined for professional sports, shouldn’t you make things harder? I suggest everyone read this article, it was a real eye-opener for me: https://fivethirtyeight.com/fe...-who-becomes-a-star/

I've noticed increasing numbers of kids reclassing down and starting college a year, or even a semester, "early".  I assume many of these were kids who were held back at one point, then were almost 19 going into their "senior" year of HS, had P5 offers, and "graduated early".

My son's 2022 team has multiple 2021s that re-classed.

How does it work in other parts of the country? By me most high schools won't let you simply repeat a year. So these kids are taking gap years at "academies". Some good, and some sketchy. Seems like the current situation has started a cottage industry of places popping up as academies.

@2025prospect posted:

Ok. Reclassifying might be getting out of hand in California. Kid has a June birthday and started very late for his age so he is a 2026 but should be a 2025. Just found out he has been held back and is now a 2027. Will be 14 years old in June, probably for the last couple weeks of school. 14 year old 6th grader. 16 years old at 8th grade graduation. Will he even be able to attend high school for his senior year?

California specific: I’m may be off by a few days but the cutoff is around June 15th. You cannot turn 19 before that date and come back for another year. So essentially, as long as you don’t turn 20 before June 15th your senior year, you can compete.

All the ones that I've seen over the years somehow repeat 8th grade. I don't know the all the ins and outs from an administration aspect, but the kid always seems change schools/districts in the process. It would not at all surprise me if things are a little shady behind the scenes.

Heard a basketball coach say this once, "The body will never go where the mind has never been".   

Let that one sink in for a minute....