Relief pitcher's effectiveness

I've long thought that reliever stats were nearly the most useless in baseball - second only to fielding stats - and have hoped that the brighter minds would come up with something that more accurately measures impact of the pitchers performance.


This one is has a lot of potential - the only problem I see with it is the calculation - while there are tables that list likelihood of victory, it is not something that can be "computed on the way to first base" as Pete Rose was alleged to have done with his batting average.

I think this statistic is very interesting and perhaps very valuable. Heck, all statistics in baseball are interesting, even those not very valuable!

Perhaps what this statistic doesn't measure, though is heart. I know one pitcher on my son's high school team that would routinely perform well in relief situations against average teams or if it weren't a big-game/playoff situations. Then in the big game and playoffs he would choke.

But that's not saying the statistic is not valuable. Actually, a good manager is one who combines information and instinct.

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Most decent relief pitchers or team of relievers can pitch the ninth without allowing a run.

That statement is totally untrue. If it were true regular relievers would be rotated at closer and closer specialists would not be such high dollar commodities. It takes a special mentality to be a closer and have the game on the line. In some ways it is much easier to come in with runners on 2nd and third and no outs. There is no great expectation of success and you are applauded if you do well. You are forgiven if you don't because it is a tough situation.

A closer comes in in a tight situation and is expected to get the job done. Period. No room for error here. That takes a special toughness. There is much higher pressure.

Starters are usually your most talented pitchers with closers having special stuff and mentality. I believe that middle relievers and set up guys usually don't have the stuff the other two categories do.

As a middle, long or setup reliever you are expected to hold the line. If you don't, your team still has a chance. You blow it as a closer and in most cases your team loses and you are a goat.

There is a reason Trevor Hoffman, Papelbon, Rivera, etc. Are so valued. Most relievers cannot come in and take that pressure. It takes a special person to do that and to be able to deal with the failure when they fail. Not easy. jmo

That being said. The stat itself has some value for relievers. I would really like to view all of a pitchers stats to get a feel for what they do. Era is useless if they come in and let the other pitchers runners score, but don't give up any runs of their own. Yet some relievers that come in to take over a bases loaded no outs situation have to be tough to understand what the situation is and pitch accordingly.

I tend to think that this statistic won't disprove what we think about late inning relief but rather what we know about late inning relief will disprove this statistic.

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A closer comes in in a tight situation and is expected to get the job done. Period. No room for error here. That takes a special toughness. There is much higher pressure.

I don't see coming in at the start of the ninth with a two or three run lead as a pressure situation. This is where a lot of saves are accumulated.

Where closers very rarely come in which is a much bigger pressure situation, is in the eighth with runners in scoring position and no one out protecting a one run lead.

I agree with those who say closing takes a certain toughness and an ability to handle pressure. Some 3 run saves are cheap but most are not, and it takes certain mentality to do it every night. It also helps having a 98 MPH FB and/or a killer slider. There have been alot of guys, with great stuff, who got the opportunity to close and never succeeded due to the pressure.
There is pressure in any late inning relief pitching but I think closing takes something different.
Ask the Mets if anyone can close a game.

The Win Probability Added stat sounds like something made up by player agents.

RJM, you got your wings back?

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Originally posted by RJM:

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A closer comes in in a tight situation and is expected to get the job done. Period. No room for error here. That takes a special toughness. There is much higher pressure.

I don't see coming in at the start of the ninth with a two or three run lead as a pressure situation. This is where a lot of saves are accumulated.

Where closers very rarely come in which is a much bigger pressure situation, is in the eighth with runners in scoring position and no one out protecting a one run lead.

I don't entirely disagree with your statement. They are 2 different mentalities and call for different skill sets. Here is what I mean. Coming in with runners on 2nd and 3rd and less than 2 outs is a damage control situation. The object and expectation is to get 3 outs and minimize the damage. After all, you are cleaning up someone else's mess. If you get 3 ground balls, job well done even if 2 runs score. Hopefully you can get a k or a gb and a throw out at home. Where relievers get into trouble is changing their style and try to be too perfect, miss bats, and strike everyone out. The next thing you know it is a big inning.

That kind of relief is damage control and expectations are different than a closer has. It is not easy, but you don't get the goat tag. I have seen good pitchers come in and choke because they mentally do not know how to pitch in those situations. It is a tough situation to be in. Knowing the role is very important. Not as easy as it sounds. We are taught from early not to give up runs. At higher levels they can hit. It makes it hard.

Closer has a different set of expectations. He is expected to perform night after night and perfection in expected. If a closer comes in and gives up a hit and a walk, has a pass ball and has runners at 2nd and third w/ no outs. Then he proceeds to get 3 ground balls he is a dog. Even if the team still wins by 1 run, he still was shaky.

One of the reason starters struggle to move to the pen is the different expectations. A lot of starters need an inning or 2 to get a rhythm going and it is not unusual for a starter to struggle for an inning or 2 before finding their groove. Glavine was an example of struggling in the first couple of innings. Once he found his groove, he was very tough. How many times have you heard the comment; "you need to get to him early".

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Originally posted by fillsfan:
RJM, you got your wings back?