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Rivals Now Ranking 6th Graders

roothog66roothog6610,000+ posts
Originally Posted by Stats4Gnats:

Originally Posted by roothog66:

Stats, why the attitude? No need to get defensive. This certainly isn't your area of expertise. It's not like he attacked the use of WAR or something. Do you not think those ML scouts at least have some of those "stud" 12yo's on a list somewhere? I guarantee you ML scouts were looking at Delino Deshields, Jr. and Bryce Harper at 12. Joilet has a point. Go see a top-level 12yo tourney. What you see may amaze you. I'll also say that joliet's example of a 12yo throwing 70-75 isn't even the very cream of the crop.

 

Attitude maybe. Defensive, no way! I don’t have to be an expert to know how much kids change between 12 and whatever, and what does WAR have to do with anything? I don’t happen to be a fan of it because it doesn’t pertain to the level of ball I’m interested in, so I don’t care what anyone thinks of it. If a scout has a 12YO on a list as a viable ML prospect, I think he’s a fool so I don’t care if he’s got 12YO’s on a list or not.

 

IMHO, anyone who tries to make 12YO baseball relevant to ML baseball is foolish. Good grief! The ML teams can’t see ALL the HS and college kids playing. What makes anyone believe they have the time to look at every kid below that who’s playing the game?

 

Ya know, when my kid was 8 YO I thought that level of ball was relevant and that scouts should be looking at those players. Time showed me how wrong I was.

I find it interesting that you think you have the experience and knowledge to call any MLB scout "foolish." Additionally, I have about 35 years in this game, so....

roothog66roothog6610,000+ posts
Originally Posted by Smitty28:

I'd say the math that Rivals has used looks something like this:

 

Revenue = ax² + bx + c, where:

x = number of 12 year old baseball players, which is probably 5-10x the number of high school players.

a = insatiable appetite of parents of 12 year olds to dream big about their kids' future.

b = the amount of money parents of 12 year olds are willing to spend on anything related to youth sports.

c = a constant related to parental ego regarding their 12 year old players.

I don't think that this is exactly fair. Is your argument that Rivals does this to sell their enhanced subscription services to the parents of 12-year-olds?

D 2020dad
Originally Posted by luv baseball:

       

I always have trouble when extremes become the norm.

 

It does not take a grizzled scout to identify prodigious talent.  The argument is not the 1% of the 1% it is today's 5% to 10% and how many will be in the 1% 6 years from now. 

 

If you name that very top group and 1/3, 1/2 or more become DI/Professional players then as a scouting service you tout that and try to make money.

 

I for one would not have a great deal of interest in my 12 year old being singled out that early.  Seems like way too much downside to nothing upside.  If you are still a player 6 years later ...so what no gain....if you don't then you have a kid who has a 12 year old glory days story of epic proportions that he can prove from the internet.  Sounds and feels very slippery to me.


       
What's to be gained if you are one of those top ranked kids?  You're right nothing but an ego trip I guess.  My son is 13 and in 7th grade if he were chucking it up there at 82 mph I don't need rivals PG, PBR or anyone else to tell me he is a top prospect.  Would I send him to an early showcase?  Maybe, not sure.  It would be a waste if money though no debating that.  But let's just take the reality scenario...  got a 13u 7th grader who is 6'1", still growing, a little awkward still with rough mechanics we are constantly qorking on throwing upper 60's which will probably translate to 70 or low 70's during season.  Where does he stand?  If your answer is "I don't know for sure" then you are right there with me.  Being a good hs pitcher is kind of a forgone conclusion so I am not worried about that.  Next step to be concerned about then is college.  Without comparing him to others his age how do you know where he is on his journey?  And just what the heck is wrong with measuring and planning?  Those who do not have a plan, plan to fail!  I just don't get why everytime something like this comes up it becomes "oh you can't tell anything at that age" (probably a false assertion) or "oh its a money grab"  its a value judgement.  Nobody forces kids to go to showcases at any age!
infielddadinfielddad10,000+ posts
Originally Posted by jolietboy:
Originally Posted by luv baseball:

       

I always have trouble when extremes become the norm.

 

It does not take a grizzled scout to identify prodigious talent.  The argument is not the 1% of the 1% it is today's 5% to 10% and how many will be in the 1% 6 years from now. 

 

If you name that very top group and 1/3, 1/2 or more become DI/Professional players then as a scouting service you tout that and try to make money.

 

I for one would not have a great deal of interest in my 12 year old being singled out that early.  Seems like way too much downside to nothing upside.  If you are still a player 6 years later ...so what no gain....if you don't then you have a kid who has a 12 year old glory days story of epic proportions that he can prove from the internet.  Sounds and feels very slippery to me.


       
  Next step to be concerned about then is college.  Without comparing him to others his age how do you know where he is on his journey?  And just what the heck is wrong with measuring and planning?  Those who do not have a plan, plan to fail!  I just don't get why everytime something like this comes up it becomes "oh you can't tell anything at that age" (probably a false assertion) or "oh its a money grab"  its a value judgement.  Nobody forces kids to go to showcases at any age!

I am very much with luv baseball here.

My suspicion is that a 13 year old 7th grader is not paying for or driving himself to the showcases.  My other suspicion is they go because the parents plan it for them, although I know the response will be otherwise. That may not be "forcing" anyone but doubt any 7th grader things of this stuff on their own.

But, to me, the key and core issue is what does anything in 7th grade as a 13 year old have to do with "planning" for college baseball.  What could any parent see on a 13 year old showcase which would tell them anything about "planning" for college baseball?  While I could be wrong, my bet is 95% or more of those parents have been to less than 5 D1 games, no D2, no D3 and no JC games.  Even if they had, those parents would not be able to see anything which would transfer to the college game, without considering how the college game might be when that young man is a freshman in college-7 years from now.

If someone wants to be in the moment and enjoy watching their son's and other son's playing the game at a high level in 7th grade, I think that is great. 

Making it more than that is where the questions arise to me. Supporting ESPN, Rivals or some other group of adults making a business and profit of ranking 7th graders in the guise of college planning rings hollow to me.

S Smitty2810,000+ posts
Originally Posted by roothog66:
Originally Posted by Smitty28:

I'd say the math that Rivals has used looks something like this:

 

Revenue = ax² + bx + c, where:

x = number of 12 year old baseball players, which is probably 5-10x the number of high school players.

a = insatiable appetite of parents of 12 year olds to dream big about their kids' future.

b = the amount of money parents of 12 year olds are willing to spend on anything related to youth sports.

c = a constant related to parental ego regarding their 12 year old players.

I don't think that this is exactly fair. Is your argument that Rivals does this to sell their enhanced subscription services to the parents of 12-year-olds?

Yes, that is my argument.  The number of parents far exceeds the number of college recruiters.  I'm assuming they are smart business people and smart business people follow the money.  I'm not making a value judgment of whether this is right or wrong (although my initial comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek), just an observation that a business has to expand it's customer base if it wants to grow.

D 2020dad
Originally Posted by luv baseball:

       

Joliet - Baines and your Righty friend had very good to great careers.  But that guy taken 3rd turned out to be the best of the lot! 


       
Ha! I guess at 15 I didn't pay much attention to the draft other than the local interest.  Yeah that guy was pretty good too!  And I bet he was pretty good at 12!
D 2020dad
So maybe this should be the start of a whole new thread...  but with apologies I ask the question to ask the high grounders...  when is the right time to 'plan' or start figuring out where you stand vs. Your competition.  And I have seen a lot of games...  but why would that even matter?  So if someone has never been to a swim meet they can't look up NCAA event times to figure out if they are on track?  That makes no sense at all.  My younger son is a swimmer.  Doesn't play baseball at all.  I as a young teacher and coach was all about basketball not baseball.  I don't force my kids into anything.  In fact oddly enough I gave him his choice (because we can't afford everything) to go to a camp, showcase or a weekend series at a major D1.  He chose to go to the college games.  So for now we decided to do that and then just go online to see results of the showcase and kind of figure out where he stands from there.  And yes it is never too early to set goals and plan for your dreams.
infielddadinfielddad10,000+ posts

"High grounder.?"  Can't have a differing perspective without being classified?

 

My perspective is there are plenty of years from 10th-12 grade, in baseball, to be able to plan and have more accurate information for that planning, for 95% of the HS age baseball players.  My perspective, I guess from a different but not higher ground, is to stay in the moment and enjoy every minute of watching your son on a baseball field.  College coaches and pro scouts are the ones who watch a game and player and project those abilities into the college game. Parents would be better off leaving that process to those coaches. As Coach Hutton from Mitty HS(a truly great HS coach) often says, the role of the parent should be to provide the opportunity and support for our sons  to practice and condition to become the best player they can be when college coaches do see them for evaluation as a prospect.

Stated differently, once our son's get above HS, if they are talented, they will be scrutinized and measured and evaluated and scored, and they cannot control any of that scrutiny. 

The only thing a player can control is his preparation, working to be better and his physical conditioning.  That is what players hear the very first day they walk into a MILB organizational meeting. I think what players learn in that very first meeting is a very good tool for parents of those on the way up to also appreciate.

 

D 2019Dad10,000+ posts
Originally Posted by jolietboy:
A 5'3" 105 12 yo throwing 68 would be a sight to behold.  He must have incredible mechanics.  So who is the better prospect?  I don't honestly know.  On the one hand the big kid has not very far to go.  And I hit puberty at 11 and still grew a heck of a lot more and ended at 6'4".  Just cause you start to get a little hair on your legs doesn't mean you are done growing.  I would still say.the 78mph kid is a slightly better prospect cause all he really needs is about 7 or 8 mph to pitch somewhere D1 and its likely growth alone will take care of that.  The 5'3" kid?  Also a prospect I would say.  How tall are his parents?  The one thing I would worry about with that kid is to throw 68 at that age and size I don't even need to see him to say his mechanics have to be darn near perfect.  So he won't gain any velocity due to better mechanics it will all have to be growth and maturity.   Who will win the race to the mid to upper 80's and D1 recruitability?  I am cheering for both!  One thing is for sure I would have really enjoyed watching that match up.  If we are all still on here a few years from now set a calendar alert to tell us how the two turned out!

Will do. I'll tell you, it was a great 12U game -- the no. 1 team from Miami with kids flown in for the weekend from NY, NJ, and the Carolinas against a semi-local (25-mile radius) SoCal team. The favorites won 5-3, if I remember correctly, and it was tied as late as the 5th. The little guy (then) pitching for our team is a good friend of 2019Son. His dad and older brother are both 6'2". Fast forward a bit and he is now an 8th grader, about 5'8" and 125-ish. PG got him at 77 in November (he was playing up with a 16U team) and I wouldn't be surprised if he touches 80 this spring. Not bad for an 8th grader. And don't get me wrong -- the other kid was good -- big, intimidating, threw hard.

P PGStaff10,000+ posts

Couple things...

 

1. If we saw enough 12/13 year old players we would rank them and feel comfortable that we would be fairly accurate. Problem is, we don't see most of the best kids at this age, so that makes it impossible.  It's not like the HS age kids, where we actually do see most all of the top kids.  

 

2. The recruiting timeline has changed a lot. The early bird gets the worm.  I have seen first hand 12 year olds that I would try to get committed.  Would I end up being wrong at times? Of course, but I would be right more often than not.  Then there is always mom and pop, you have to look at the genetics. Sure everyone knows that kid that doesn't standout as a 12 year old might be the best player at 18 years old.  But there are certain 12 year olds that you just know, it is all there, and if they progress normally they are going to be very good.  I would guess that we have all seen one or two of these type 12 year olds.  Everyone always talks about the big 12 year old that is much more mature and stronger than everyone else, so he gets passed up by others as they get older. Those things are accounted for at older ages as well.  I first saw Ryan Sweeney when he was 10 years old, I knew what was there.  I couldn't honestly say he would end up being in the big leagues, but I knew he was a special kid and he would also very likely be the best around when he was 17. We have been fortunate enough to see some of these type kids at a very young age and it is fun to see it, wish we could see more of them.  Bryce Harper and Justin Upton weren't hard to figure out.  We actually did a report on Harper when he was 12 or 13.  The numbers didn't stand out, but considering his age, he sure did. If we would have ranked 12 year olds, I would have felt good about ranking Justin Upton #1 even without seeing all the other good 12 year olds.  How would that look now or when he became the first overall pick in the draft?  BTW, Harper also ended up being the first overall pick.  I think any college coach that saw them play would have hoped they ended up playing for them.

 

Lastly, what would a MLB scout be doing at a 12 year old game unless his kid was playing in it?  When a MLB scout attends a 12 year old game, he should also be applying for jobs. MLB scouts don't even pay a lot of attention to underclassmen, let alone 12 year olds.  That is actually kind of funny picturing MLB scouts with heir radar guns out at a 12 year old game.

 

I need to add, I doubt if we would ever rank players that young because of what I mentioned earlier. If we did I do think it would be interesting to follow as kids grew older. I'm guessing there would be a lot of mistakes and also most of those at the very top would still be prospects in HS.  Not so much ranking, but I am all for getting as much information as possible on kids of any age.  When you have enough data on most anything, it could end up being meaningful in some way. Maybe even the toddler division

S SluggerDad10,000+ posts
Originally Posted by 2019Dad:
Originally Posted by jolietboy:
It would take an utter collapse of epic proportions for them not to be a D1 player or draft pick when their time comes.  I mean when a kid of 12 is throwing 70-75 he has 6 years to put on 15 mph!  Not even 3mph a year!

Maybe you're right about 12 yo. I'm skeptical at that age, and the younger you go, the less accurate it gets. I know 4 kids on that 10U All-American list from 2012 that I posted earlier. Those kids are now 13U. One of the four is no longer playing baseball, two of them wouldn't make an all-county team now, and one is still really dominant. 

 

So, I would take those things for what they're worth -- fun for the kids, a nice thing to send to the grandparents. A cool thing. But extremely, extremely limited predictive value. As always, just my opinion . . .

 

The problem is that boys at 12 can have radically different puberty clocks.  Some of those dominant 12 year olds are dominant only or at least partly because their puberty clocks have hit the "on" switch sooner than average.   Some of the less dominant ones have not yet started producing serious testosterone -- which gives male bodies the directive -- "produce more muscle now"  So it's very complicated thing.   

 

Sure some proportion of the  physical specimens at 12, will still be physical specimens relative to their peers at age 17 or 18, but some won't.   Conversely some of the little one's with squeaky voices, who still seem like little boys, with  no muscle mass to speak of,  may actually turn into serious specimens.   It would seem to be  an inherently risky business.    

 

Plus, baseball isn't just a game of physical skills.   12 year old boys have shifty attention spans,  shifting motivations,  shifting work habits.  Most of the athletically inclined ones are usually trying out multiple sports at that age.   Hard to know, even if some are more apparently talented than others,  which of the kids are really going to stick with it and develop their talents, and work like the dickens to get better.  

 

I doubt there's more than a few 12 year olds a year, if that, of whom you could feel confident that they have ALL the elements to succeed in the long run -- i.e. to become  D1 prospect, a potential draft pick, etc.  I would guess to find those few future prince of the diamond, you'd have to go through a lot of frogs. 

BishopLeftiesDadBishopLeftiesDad10,000+ posts

For those in favor of ranking 12 year olds. All have mentioned how you can see ones who are going to be D1 talent. If that is the case wont they still be D1 talent at 14? I know for the cream of the crop the recruiting time line is moving up. But how often does a verbal by a 12 year old keep another school away at 16/17? 

Some of whether an athlete is a D1 prospect cones down to genetics, correct? I am not saying that they do not work hard or don't earn it. But sometimes genetics are going to determine a players ceiling. Does anybody really know a ceiling at 12? 

O old_school10,000+ posts
Originally Posted by BishopLeftiesDad:

For those in favor of ranking 12 year olds. All have mentioned how you can see ones who are going to be D1 talent. If that is the case wont they still be D1 talent at 14? I know for the cream of the crop the recruiting time line is moving up. But how often does a verbal by a 12 year old keep another school away at 16/17? 

Some of whether an athlete is a D1 prospect cones down to genetics, correct? I am not saying that they do not work hard or don't earn it. But sometimes genetics are going to determine a players ceiling. Does anybody really know a ceiling at 12? 

I don't care if they rank 5 year olds...if they can sell it is what it is. If parents are stupid enough to fund it what the heck!

Y YERT16500+ posts
Originally Posted by Baseball33:
I for one do not believe genetics will put a ceiling on your baseball career. I believe it's about a players heart, work ethic, and overall passion for the game is what sets the ceiling.

IMO your baseball ceiling is 100% about genetics.  How close you get to your ceiling is all about your heart, work ethic etc. We all know kids who leave it all on the field and then some but just don't have the God given talent to make it to the next level.  I wish the players with the most heart were the ones that made it the farthest but talent usually trumps heart in the eyes of talent evaluators. Of course its great to have both.

P PGStaff10,000+ posts

Back in the old coaching days, some of the players I liked the most were those that worked hard, with a passion for the game and a big heart.

 

Some of them were starters and some were not starters.  Some simply had more talent than the others.  A few of the lesser talented kids now coach for a living.

 

It would be great if talent wasn't so important.  Not sure we will ever see that day, though. And it's not just the lesser talented that work hard.  One thing for sure no one will ever reach their ceiling without working hard.

 

You have lesser talented hard workers who will reach their ceiling. However there ceiling is limited. 

 

You have talented players that don't work hard and never reach their ceiling, but they might still reach a high level.

 

You have talented hard workers and they are the ones that have a high ceiling and they have the best chance to reach it.

lionbaseballlionbaseball5,000+ posts
Originally Posted by PGStaff:

Back in the old coaching days, some of the players I liked the most were those that worked hard, with a passion for the game and a big heart.

 

Some of them were starters and some were not starters.  Some simply had more talent than the others.  A few of the lesser talented kids now coach for a living.

 

It would be great if talent wasn't so important.  Not sure we will ever see that day, though. And it's not just the lesser talented that work hard.  One thing for sure no one will ever reach their ceiling without working hard.

 

You have lesser talented hard workers who will reach their ceiling. However there ceiling is limited. 

 

You have talented players that don't work hard and never reach their ceiling, but they might still reach a high level.

 

You have talented hard workers and they are the ones that have a high ceiling and they have the best chance to reach it.

Until bozo's like Jameis Winston are kicked out of universities for bad behavior talent will be the overriding decision. 

RJMRJMHSBaseballWeb member since 2007
When we showed up at the field hosting LL districts I was told of The Legend of Billy. Billy was from the host league. He threw 75. He had never lost a game in season or all stars. And see those rooftops across the street? He hits homers onto the roof tops. Billy was a big, strong, 5'8" 12yo. Pitching wise he had reasonable mechanics. Hitting wise his mechanics were poor. What I'm about to state is a very important part of evaluating 12yos. Billy's dad was 5'5". His mother was 5'. Billy's last year of baseball was pitching JV ball as a soph throwing 78. He was still 5'8".

I had my 13u team in a tournament that was considered a showcase for a USA Today Top 25 private school. My son (5'2" at the time) played very well at short and center. Between games the head coach of the private school asked who's the dad of the kid. When I told him I was he looked at me and said "Good, good. Did you play ball?" Then he asked if his mother was there. I told him no, but the information you're looking for is 5'8". And his 18yo sister is 5'10". We both laughed.
Last edited by RJM
O old_school10,000+ posts
Originally Posted by lionbaseball:
Originally Posted by PGStaff:

Back in the old coaching days, some of the players I liked the most were those that worked hard, with a passion for the game and a big heart.

 

Some of them were starters and some were not starters.  Some simply had more talent than the others.  A few of the lesser talented kids now coach for a living.

 

It would be great if talent wasn't so important.  Not sure we will ever see that day, though. And it's not just the lesser talented that work hard.  One thing for sure no one will ever reach their ceiling without working hard.

 

You have lesser talented hard workers who will reach their ceiling. However there ceiling is limited. 

 

You have talented players that don't work hard and never reach their ceiling, but they might still reach a high level.

 

You have talented hard workers and they are the ones that have a high ceiling and they have the best chance to reach it.

Until bozo's like Jameis Winston are kicked out of universities for bad behavior talent will be the overriding decision. 


Wait, all I have ever been told or read is that college coaches care about more then just playing ability. you need the grades, good behavior and a model citizen...oh sorry that is for normal little folks not studs!

I do think Winston on FSU baseball team is little more then a stunt for attention.

D 2019Dad10,000+ posts
2019Dad posted:
Originally Posted by jolietboy:
A 5'3" 105 12 yo throwing 68 would be a sight to behold.  He must have incredible mechanics.  So who is the better prospect?  I don't honestly know.  On the one hand the big kid has not very far to go.  And I hit puberty at 11 and still grew a heck of a lot more and ended at 6'4".  Just cause you start to get a little hair on your legs doesn't mean you are done growing.  I would still say.the 78mph kid is a slightly better prospect cause all he really needs is about 7 or 8 mph to pitch somewhere D1 and its likely growth alone will take care of that.  The 5'3" kid?  Also a prospect I would say.  How tall are his parents?  The one thing I would worry about with that kid is to throw 68 at that age and size I don't even need to see him to say his mechanics have to be darn near perfect.  So he won't gain any velocity due to better mechanics it will all have to be growth and maturity.   Who will win the race to the mid to upper 80's and D1 recruitability?  I am cheering for both!  One thing is for sure I would have really enjoyed watching that match up.  If we are all still on here a few years from now set a calendar alert to tell us how the two turned out!

Will do. I'll tell you, it was a great 12U game -- the no. 1 team from Miami with kids flown in for the weekend from NY, NJ, and the Carolinas against a semi-local (25-mile radius) SoCal team. The favorites won 5-3, if I remember correctly, and it was tied as late as the 5th. The little guy (then) pitching for our team is a good friend of 2019Son. His dad and older brother are both 6'2". Fast forward a bit and he is now an 8th grader, about 5'8" and 125-ish. PG got him at 77 in November (he was playing up with a 16U team) and I wouldn't be surprised if he touches 80 this spring. Not bad for an 8th grader. And don't get me wrong -- the other kid was good -- big, intimidating, threw hard.

An update for you, 2020dad (f/k/a jolietboy): I saw that "little guy" pitch this weekend. He's now in 10th grade and 6' 175 lbs. I witnessed him touch 87 this weekend (and hit two balls 380 ft. apiece with a wood bat). Don't know about the big kid from Miami, but 3½ years after that 12U game, the "little guy" is not so little and is still a heckuva player, has D1 offers (but hasn't committed early) . . . who know where he ends up. He's fun to watch.

Edited to add: through the wonders of Perfect Game, I was able to look up the "big kid" a few minutes ago; per PG, he's now listed at 6'1" 200 lbs and last month he topped out at 78 mph, although they did get him as high as 79 mph in July. With the benefit of more data I now have my answer to my question "Who is the better prospect?" And it isn't the kid who threw 10 mph harder during 12U . . .

Last edited by 2019Dad
D 2020dad
2019Dad posted:
2019Dad posted:
Originally Posted by jolietboy:
A 5'3" 105 12 yo throwing 68 would be a sight to behold.  He must have incredible mechanics.  So who is the better prospect?  I don't honestly know.  On the one hand the big kid has not very far to go.  And I hit puberty at 11 and still grew a heck of a lot more and ended at 6'4".  Just cause you start to get a little hair on your legs doesn't mean you are done growing.  I would still say.the 78mph kid is a slightly better prospect cause all he really needs is about 7 or 8 mph to pitch somewhere D1 and its likely growth alone will take care of that.  The 5'3" kid?  Also a prospect I would say.  How tall are his parents?  The one thing I would worry about with that kid is to throw 68 at that age and size I don't even need to see him to say his mechanics have to be darn near perfect.  So he won't gain any velocity due to better mechanics it will all have to be growth and maturity.   Who will win the race to the mid to upper 80's and D1 recruitability?  I am cheering for both!  One thing is for sure I would have really enjoyed watching that match up.  If we are all still on here a few years from now set a calendar alert to tell us how the two turned out!

Will do. I'll tell you, it was a great 12U game -- the no. 1 team from Miami with kids flown in for the weekend from NY, NJ, and the Carolinas against a semi-local (25-mile radius) SoCal team. The favorites won 5-3, if I remember correctly, and it was tied as late as the 5th. The little guy (then) pitching for our team is a good friend of 2019Son. His dad and older brother are both 6'2". Fast forward a bit and he is now an 8th grader, about 5'8" and 125-ish. PG got him at 77 in November (he was playing up with a 16U team) and I wouldn't be surprised if he touches 80 this spring. Not bad for an 8th grader. And don't get me wrong -- the other kid was good -- big, intimidating, threw hard.

An update for you, 2020dad (f/k/a jolietboy): I saw that "little guy" pitch this weekend. He's now in 10th grade and 6' 175 lbs. I witnessed him touch 87 this weekend (and hit two balls 380 ft. apiece with a wood bat). Don't know about the big kid from Miami, but 3½ years after that 12U game, the "little guy" is not so little and is still a heckuva player, has D1 offers (but hasn't committed early) . . . who know where he ends up. He's fun to watch.

Edited to add: through the wonders of Perfect Game, I was able to look up the "big kid" a few minutes ago; per PG, he's now listed at 6'1" 200 lbs and last month he topped out at 78 mph, although they did get him as high as 79 mph in July. With the benefit of more data I now have my answer to my question "Who is the better prospect?" And it isn't the kid who threw 10 mph harder during 12U . . .

2019...  Something is amiss here.  With your numbers little guy was throwing 68 at 12.  Big guy threw 10mph harder...  (Math word problem here).  So big guy was throwing 78. I don't want to debate one of my HSBBW friends...  But...  You are trying to make me believe big guy has not gained one single mph since age 12. Might it be big guy wasn't really throwing much harder than little guy at 12?  Were they both gunned by someone reliable at age 12?  I suppose anything is possible. But this scenario would be very very rare. 

D 2019Dad10,000+ posts
2020dad posted:

2019...  Something is amiss here.  With your numbers little guy was throwing 68 at 12.  Big guy threw 10mph harder...  (Math word problem here).  So big guy was throwing 78. I don't want to debate one of my HSBBW friends...  But...  You are trying to make me believe big guy has not gained one single mph since age 12. Might it be big guy wasn't really throwing much harder than little guy at 12?  Were they both gunned by someone reliable at age 12?  I suppose anything is possible. But this scenario would be very very rare. 

I know.

What I can tell you is that I personally saw the gun at that game in Vegas -- I saw 68 and 77 myself, and was told the big kid touched 78. It was Memorial Day weekend of 12U, so some kids were 13 years old already or just about to turn 13. The game is very clear in my mind because I recall having a conversation with a dad of a kid on the other team who said, when the game was tied late, that  (1) his team wasn't used to batting against such slow pitching; and (2) the pitcher for his team wasn't one of their best guys, and that they had 3 kids who had touched 80, yada, yada, yada. I remember at the time thinking to myself "yeah, but the little kid hasn't hit puberty yet and your guy looks like he is all the way finished with puberty." 

Also, I can tell you this: that 12U team was literally the no. 1 ranked team in the country, it flew kids in from multiple states/territories, etc. The Orlando Sun-Sentinel did a lengthy travel ball exposé a few years ago that was mostly about this team. And my son's team played them at a Memorial Day tournament in Vegas that was an attempt at the time to get all the best teams in the country in one place. You can probably estimate for yourself what that would mean in terms of velocity from their starting pitcher.

All that said, I was really surprised when I looked up the big kid yesterday and saw his velocity numbers. Really surprised.

D 2020dad
2019Dad posted:
2020dad posted:

2019...  Something is amiss here.  With your numbers little guy was throwing 68 at 12.  Big guy threw 10mph harder...  (Math word problem here).  So big guy was throwing 78. I don't want to debate one of my HSBBW friends...  But...  You are trying to make me believe big guy has not gained one single mph since age 12. Might it be big guy wasn't really throwing much harder than little guy at 12?  Were they both gunned by someone reliable at age 12?  I suppose anything is possible. But this scenario would be very very rare. 

I know.

What I can tell you is that I personally saw the gun at that game in Vegas -- I saw 68 and 77 myself, and was told the big kid touched 78. It was Memorial Day weekend of 12U, so some kids were 13 years old already or just about to turn 13. The game is very clear in my mind because I recall having a conversation with a dad of a kid on the other team who said, when the game was tied late, that  (1) his team wasn't used to batting against such slow pitching; and (2) the pitcher for his team wasn't one of their best guys, and that they had 3 kids who had touched 80, yada, yada, yada. I remember at the time thinking to myself "yeah, but the little kid hasn't hit puberty yet and your guy looks like he is all the way finished with puberty." 

Also, I can tell you this: that 12U team was literally the no. 1 ranked team in the country, it flew kids in from multiple states/territories, etc. The Orlando Sun-Sentinel did a lengthy travel ball exposé a few years ago that was mostly about this team. And my son's team played them at a Memorial Day tournament in Vegas that was an attempt at the time to get all the best teams in the country in one place. You can probably estimate for yourself what that would mean in terms of velocity from their starting pitcher.

All that said, I was really surprised when I looked up the big kid yesterday and saw his velocity numbers. Really surprised.

Guarantee there is more to this story - Unknown to you.  Like that team was cheating and he wasn't 12...  Or even 13.  Or he sustained an injury. Something. This just really borders on impossible. I don't care how fast you hit puberty your muscles have a long way to go after age 12. Maybe this kid is a football player now?  Bulked up and not a baseball friendly body?  I am just searching for answers cause something is just not right. But no matter here will come the 'big 12 year old crowd'.  Thanks 2019.  Lol. 

P PGStaff10,000+ posts

There is a senior this year throwing in the low 90s.  I saw him pitch in a 12 year old game a few years ago, he was actually just turned 13 at the time and topped out at 84 mph.  Best at that age I have ever seen. Still a very good prospect, but nowhere near the best.

This year I saw a 14 year old throw 93 from the mound and 97 from the outfield.  Actually we saw maybe 100 or more 14 year olds throw 87 or better.  And we saw 14 year olds that have no problem hitting it.

Someone that doesn't improve a lot after age 12 is very rare.  That doesn't mean they all improve equally.

F FourBases1,000+ posts

I can't wait until the day something like comes!!.....

"Latest News... 20" 9 lbs baby boy from local hospital's maternity ward has committed (via parents power of attorney signed with a thumb) to play baseball at power D1 university. The Head Coach is said to have told the parents of the boy, class of 2035, that a roster spot has been reserved for him in his choice of pitcher or position player. The coach stated that lineage and pure instinct helped closed the deal and make the offer. College baseball analysts commented that this commitment will deeply hurt our own local power D1 university since they are in the same conference. The public is saying 'what happened to our local D1 coach', did he missed the boat?"

Steve A.Steve A.1,000+ posts
PGStaff posted:

Just to be accurate,  this would be 14u level, but several of those kids are 15. They just happened to make the cutoff.  Also one grad year ahead.

Think I will check on that 100 number, I was just guessing.  But our 14u Festival had about 15 or maybe more that touched 87.  Again some were actually 15 at the time.

Hi PG,

Just not seeing anywhere close to that volume (100) at that velo (87) for 14U. For example: For the 14U PG Series Classic the event FB Velo record is 86 (looks like 2015 & 2016).  Can you direct me to a link that shows more than a handful of 14Us at 87? Thanks!

 

 

Steve A.Steve A.1,000+ posts
PGStaff posted:

STEVE A,

Not sure what link that would be, but I can have our IT guys get me that information.  Here is a link to a game we did about 6 weeks ago.  For anyone interested in this age group (14u) they will enjoy watching this game.

http://m.mlb.com/video/v113891...erfect-game-showcase

I actually did watch this game & would recommend it to others who want a look at the top players in the country at 14U! The pitching for this age was especially impressive. Thanks for sharing!

C cabbagedadHSBaseballWeb member since 2011

.

Steve A. posted:
PGStaff posted:

STEVE A,

Not sure what link that would be, but I can have our IT guys get me that information.  Here is a link to a game we did about 6 weeks ago.  For anyone interested in this age group (14u) they will enjoy watching this game.

http://m.mlb.com/video/v113891...erfect-game-showcase

I actually did watch this game & would recommend it to others who want a look at the top players in the country at 14U! The pitching for this age was especially impressive. Thanks for sharing!

what a great reference source this video clip is for those 13-14 y.o.'s trying to get an idea where they may stack up at this point!

P PGStaff10,000+ posts

Just received this from our IT folks.

Number of pitchers in our database that topped out at 87 or higher while they were still 14u eligible.

131

That might sound like a high number, but if you think about it, it is very rare to see a 14 yr old or recently turned 15 year old touch 87.  Sorry, if I made it sound like it was common.

CaCO3GirlCaCO3Girl10,000+ posts
PGStaff posted:

Just received this from our IT folks.

Number of pitchers in our database that topped out at 87 or higher while they were still 14u eligible.

131

That might sound like a high number, but if you think about it, it is very rare to see a 14 yr old or recently turned 15 year old touch 87.  Sorry, if I made it sound like it was common.

I don't know if we have mentioned lately, BUT, it is SOOO cool that you have a database and IT people.  We love data, thank you for providing so much.

Go44dadGo44dad10,000+ posts
PGStaff posted:

Just received this from our IT folks.

Number of pitchers in our database that topped out at 87 or higher while they were still 14u eligible.

131

That might sound like a high number, but if you think about it, it is very rare to see a 14 yr old or recently turned 15 year old touch 87.  Sorry, if I made it sound like it was common.

PG, no good deed goes unpunished...

Was this for one year or over multiple years/life of database?

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