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Been pretty bizzy trying to get my new scoring program working, and in doing that I’ve been scoring lots of games, or at least portions of games, testing various things to make sure they’re doing exactly what I want them to do, one of which is “disruptions”.

A couple years back I began tracking runners’ disruptions. A disruptive thing they could do was draw a throw, get picked, attempt a steal, or actually steal a base. I really love the metric, but also wanted to add just a little something more to it. Since I’m looking at disruptions, I wanted to additionally track the instances where the runner caused the pitcher not to just throw, but also to actually disrupt his primary job of throwing a pitch to the batter.

For example, how many times in a HS game is there a runner on 2nd and the pitcher “wheels” but never throws, or how about the dreaded “buzzby”? Also, how many times has a runner caused a pitcher to “step off”? Well, to me those are disruptions as well, and I believe a runner should be given credit for them. After all, he’s caused the pitcher to change his game plan, and that’s usually a good thing for the offense. Anyhoo, I wanted to add the capability to track it while I was building this new program. I added the throws by simply clicking on the runner, and have added the “fakes” by right clicking on the runner.

But that’s not the reason I’m making this post. Wink The reason for that is, I’m noticing something I’ve never took a lot of notice of before. ML teams don’t appear to make nearly as many throws or “fakes” as HS teams make. I’ve done about 25 games this past month, and have been amazed at just how few times ML pitchers take some kind of overt action because of a runner. Yeah, they’ll look over a lot, but really its seldom been a lot more than that.

That’s gotten me to think that perhaps it’s a reason lower level pitchers seem to have so much trouble when they’re in the stretch. Rather than concentrating on what they’re supposed to be doin’, making a good pitch to the batter, they’re thinking about something else. Not that they shouldn’t be thinking about the runners, but there should be some kind of proportion of thought.

Anyhoo, that’s just something I was thinking about, and wondered if anyone else had thoughts about it.
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IMO, stealing is far more frequent in HS than MLB because the average HS catcher is not nearly as capable of throwing out runners and the average HS pitcher is not as efficient at getting to the plate quickly to help his catcher.
Also, the average HS runner is more susceptible to getting picked.
Thus, more attention by the HS pitcher to the runner.
quote:
Originally posted by cabbagedad:
IMO, stealing is far more frequent in HS than MLB because the average HS catcher is not nearly as capable of throwing out runners and the average HS pitcher is not as efficient at getting to the plate quickly to help his catcher.
Also, the average HS runner is more susceptible to getting picked.
Thus, more attention by the HS pitcher to the runner.


I have little to disagree with there. But I wonder if any of those things warrant what seems to be an inordinate amount of attention given to runners at the lower levels.

What I mean is, if you take into account how much the lack of attention gives an advantage to the batters, how many times an errant PO throw turns into an error, or worse a snowball fight, as well as other factors, is it really in a pitcher’s best interests to allow himself to be bumfuzzeled by runners?

I really don’t know, and as of right now I don’t even have data to support what my perceptions are. However, that doesn’t stop me from cogitatin’ on whether or not lower level coaches wouldn’t be doing their pitchers and the whole team a favor by concentrating on things to help them get quicker to the plate, along with improving their general pitching skills from the stretch, rather than spending so much “energy” worrying about runners.
I think that runners are less proficient in HS at reading moves but can "outrun" pitchers and catchers at a much higher rate than pro ball. So defensively working the pick plays makes sense. In pro ball that catcher sitting back there with his gun is the stopper.

Every year the local HS team has 2-3 kids who simply take off at first movment. They are very successful regardless of what the pitcher does. In other words even if the ball goes to first they simply outrun the relay from 1st base. If the pitcher goes to the plate about 75% of the time there is no throw becasue they are already standing on 2nd.

The truth of HS ball is that the teams that can catch and throw are the consistent winners. You can overcome the team with the 90+ pitcher if you catch better. How many times have you seen the pitcher with the 84 beat the 91 because the team played errorless ball and made a couple of good plays while the other squad kicked a few? I see it every year and everybody shakes their head and says "I don't get it he gave up 2 hits struck out 13 and they never hit it hard but still lost".
WHEW! Lots to think about there, but what the heck. That’s why I come to places like this. Wink

quote:
Originally posted by luv baseball:I think that runners are less proficient in HS at reading moves but can "outrun" pitchers and catchers at a much higher rate than pro ball. So defensively working the pick plays makes sense. In pro ball that catcher sitting back there with his gun is the stopper.


There’s no doubt that not just the runners, but every part of the game in HS is less proficient than in pro ball. But I don’t believe the “average” runners can “outrun” “average” pitchers and catchers as much as “average” pitchers and catchers are just a lot worse at what they do than what the “average” runner who’s allowed to take off can do. Wink

As far as what acts as the “stopper” in the pros, that’s a debatable thing too. While an accurate cannon arm is definitely a deterrent, from what I can determine, a pitcher who’s quick to the plate is at least AS effective in stopping the running game, and could be even more effective.

quote:
Every year the local HS team has 2-3 kids who simply take off at first movment. They are very successful regardless of what the pitcher does. In other words even if the ball goes to first they simply outrun the relay from 1st base. If the pitcher goes to the plate about 75% of the time there is no throw becasue they are already standing on 2nd.


I know it sure seems like that’s the case, but if it were true very often, stealing 40-50 bases in HS would be fairly “normal”. But in the entire state of Ca there were only 27 players with 30 or more, and we have a lot of teams out here. I think its more likely that things like that are noticed without considering the opposition.

quote:
The truth of HS ball is that the teams that can catch and throw are the consistent winners. You can overcome the team with the 90+ pitcher if you catch better. How many times have you seen the pitcher with the 84 beat the 91 because the team played errorless ball and made a couple of good plays while the other squad kicked a few? I see it every year and everybody shakes their head and says "I don't get it he gave up 2 hits struck out 13 and they never hit it hard but still lost".


Now there’s something no one can successfully argue with unless they use facts that simply aren’t true! But even though fielding may be the easiest of all the skills to improve, more time is devoted to hitting in the hope that more offense is the answer. Frown
I didn't mean to imply that kids are swiping 30+ bases a year. The number is probably closer to 12-15 over 20 games and again it's only the fastest 2 or 3 kids.

I also agree that the pitcher's ability to change the type of delivery and the timing of his delivery and still throw strikes in pro ball is much higher. This in turn gives those catchers the extra tenth or two to throw out enough runners to discourage the running games.

Most HS leagues probably don't have even one D1 catching prospect so that coupled with the inability of pitchers to vary thier deliveries makes the steal much easier play in HS. So to counter you get more throws/moves to the bases because the runners aren't as good and will make enough mistakes to make it worth the defensive effort.

So I find it extremely fasinating that you are trying to measure the impact on the pitchers effectiveness when he is paying attention to runners. The "eyeball" says that HS pitchers would be more likely to become wilder or groove pitches but can't be positive.
quote:
Originally posted by luv baseball:I didn't mean to imply that kids are swiping 30+ bases a year. The number is probably closer to 12-15 over 20 games and again it's only the fastest 2 or 3 kids.


I might have got a bit “zealous” there, but I’ve been conditioned to try to keep people from thinking there’s kids running wild all over HS. Wink But you did hit on something very important. Even with a poor catcher and a pitcher who can’t get the ball to the plate very quickly, there’s only a few kids on most teams who will try to swipe bases.

But what’s funny to me is, there’s a good chance that many more bases could be stolen, but both players and coaches don’t seem to have a “spirit of adventure” and are willing to test the waters. For more than 20 years our coach has been known as being very aggressive when it comes to baserunning, and I have to admit that while I don’t know if overall its been a good thing or bad, its been a lot of fun to watch and adds excitement to the game. And overall 250 steals out of 321 attempts ain’t all that bad.

We’ve had kids who you’d think had concrete shoes swipe bases, and Lord help the other team when we get a kid like we have now who absolutely loves to run, gets great reads, and is pretty quick. In fact, he’s the primary reason I started this disruption stuff. His reputation of forcing the defense to make almost perfect plays to get him, really shows up in games. And I think a lot more players could do the same thing, but it almost seems like there’s a fear that if they try something and get nailed, they’ll lose their spot.

quote:
…Most HS leagues probably don't have even one D1 catching prospect so that coupled with the inability of pitchers to vary thier deliveries makes the steal much easier play in HS. So to counter you get more throws/moves to the bases because the runners aren't as good and will make enough mistakes to make it worth the defensive effort.


I don’t know about that, but I do wonder about it. I know that in 5 years we’ve had 47 POs, but I can’t say how many times a pitcher’s thrown a PO throw away. I know we’ve had 12 balks though, and all of them can be attributed to runners since you can’t have a balk without one. Wink But I’m thinkin’ that all in all, its still not worth all the effort. I just wish there were a way to measure it. Frown

quote:
So I find it extremely fasinating that you are trying to measure the impact on the pitchers effectiveness when he is paying attention to runners. The "eyeball" says that HS pitchers would be more likely to become wilder or groove pitches but can't be positive.


I also do a lot of looking at how pitchers do with runners on base as far as many other things go, and I can say without a doubt that its fairly easy for me to pick out pitchers who could really be helped by putting in some extra work in the stretch. I can’t say as to what exactly needs to be done, but at least I can identify who has a problem that can likely be “mitigated”. And that brings up the next “issue”. Who’s gonna work with a kid like that? There simply isn’t a lot of time for that kind of thing, and even if there were, there just aren’t a lot of HS coaches who truly understand the problem and how to deal with it effectively.
The tough part of measuring if the effort to hold runners close is there really is no way to know if you actually stopped someone from making an attempt. I am thinking that there is a ratio of (steals-pickoffs+errors-attempts not tried)/actual attempts.

As far as catching talent it is likely that CA has a deeper pool than all but a few places so I would expect you would have better athletes back there.

The coaching point is a good one. Here in VA there's about 3-4 weeks outside in the spring before the games and then maybe 4 practices a week. Most teams rely on 3-4 pitchers so they don't have a whole lot of time during the season to work on this stuff. It seems to get done very informally over the summer and fall when the coaches are not allowed to have "contact" with players.
quote:
Originally posted by luv baseball:
The tough part of measuring if the effort to hold runners close is there really is no way to know if you actually stopped someone from making an attempt. I am thinking that there is a ratio of (steals-pickoffs+errors-attempts not tried)/actual attempts.


Yeah, its pretty difficult to measure something that didn’t happen.Wink But I didn’t mean I could tell who needed help keeping the running game in check. I was talking about things that can be measured because they did happen. FI, if a pitcher has a WHIP of .75 with no runners on by 4.2 with runners on, he needs some work. But there are plenty of other metrics like strike %, 1st pitch strike %, opponents BA or OBP, etc. that are pretty simple to measure.

Fausto Carmona for the Indians is a great example. The opponent’s BA WNRO is about .210. but well over .300 WRO. What’s sad is, everyone knows it, but can’t seem to fix him. So much for the great coaching at the ML level. Wink

quote:
As far as catching talent it is likely that CA has a deeper pool than all but a few places so I would expect you would have better athletes back there.


I don’t know if its “deeper”. I do know we have one heck of a lot of players though, so I wouldn’t doubt we have a higher number of good ones than say Va, but I seriously doubt that the ratio of good ones to average ones is any better than anyplace else.

quote:
The coaching point is a good one. Here in VA there's about 3-4 weeks outside in the spring before the games and then maybe 4 practices a week. Most teams rely on 3-4 pitchers so they don't have a whole lot of time during the season to work on this stuff. It seems to get done very informally over the summer and fall when the coaches are not allowed to have "contact" with players.


What SEEMS to happen here is, HS coaches take whatever they happen to get, then do their best to mold a cohesive team that can play together pretty well. Sure there’s some degree of practice going on, but its much more along the lines of “maintenance” than development, and SEEMS intended to getting the kids to know each other and to learn the fundies of their positions. The serious development is left to the players to seek out private coaches where they can get lots of 1 on 1 time that isn’t available in a team or group setting.

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