Sabermania

Certainly there are human elements that have to be taken into account, but human beings are inherently terrible at understanding cause and effect and seeing patterns that aren't there, and ex post facto analysis of coaching decisions that take into account whether those decisions worked out or not aren't particularly useful.

For instance, not pinch hitting for Chris Carpenter in this game when he lead off the top of the 8th is an objectively bad decision that was justified at that time using much the same logic as the decision to leave Pedro Martinez in this game, which was also a bad decision.  Grady Little isn't a worse manager than Tony LaRussa because his bad decision didn't work out, and LaRussa isn't better because his bad decision did work.

In the broadest sense, results don't matter. The goal is to make the best decision you can every time you have to make a decision, and let the results come as they may. In the long run, that's how you win.

Hello strawman argument wrapped in an unfocused run on sentence.  I don't think anyone has "ranted or railed" in this thread against the use of advanced statistics??

Meanwhile... sounds like this Larussa guy needs a little thumpin too:

http://arizonasports.com/42/17...ance-on-Sabermetrics    

Actions speak louder than words, and given that LaRussa effectively invented the LOOGY and modern bullpen usage, spent a lot of time on lineup optimization, and was instrumental in the occasional use of batting the pitcher 8th (which is mathematically optimal in a lot of cases), I'm not going to just take him at his word that sabermetrics is oversold.

Got it.  Disregard what Tony Larussa said yesterday about his thoughts on sabermetrics. JacJac will let us know what the HOFer really meant in due course.  

CTR might be a useful metric for evaluating the subtle differences between Grady Little and Tony Larussa in terms of managerial effectiveness... It stands for Count The Rings.

To your first point,
http://www.azcentral.com/story...iamondbacks/9357945/

To your second, rings have nothing to do with it. Jayson Werth has a WS ring and Barry Bonds doesn't, and I know which one was a better OF. Tony LaRussa was a better manager than Grady Little for a number of reasons, one of which was that he made bad decisions less often, which was in part due to having a better understanding of the numbers (implicitly or explicitly). Leaving Carpenter in that playoff game wasn't some act of genius, it was a poor decision that worked, just like Little leaving Pedro in was a poor decision that didn't. People get away with making bad decisions every day, and just like one bad AB doesn't change whether you're a great hitter or not, one bad decision doesn't make the difference in whether you're a great manager or not.

Tony LaRussa left the Cardinal organization because he didn't see eye to eye with the younger GM and those in the front office that were drafting and using players more and more based on saber metics. 

I think that sometimes instinct and knowing what his players were capable of works for him. The decision on leaving Carp in, is just another example of how things work and don't work, regardless of all the stats in the world, you can't take the human element out of it.

JMO

Say no more...

Right, because rings are all about some ineffable quality that can't be quantified and only "real baseball men" can detect. I mean, there's literally no luck or statistical knowledge whatsoever involved.

Originally Posted by shortnquick:

I could be wrong here and I am sure I will be corrected if I say this wrong but I don't see or hear "old sticks in the mud" type guys in baseball that I know that totally pooh pooh sabermetrics to where they say the information is not valuable.  I think the point is there is still human elements involved that can't be numberfied that do get pooh poohed. 

I’m sure that’s your experience, but trust me, they’re out there. I run into them at games and on these boards. You are definitely correct that there are things that can’t be well represented by numbers. But having statistical proof of what’s taken place doesn’t minimize those things at all. It actually enhances them and makes them more valuable.

Take the other thread about the HS coach going off on his players. I bet there are some that are die hard Sabermetric guys who pooh pooh the human element of coaching, decision making and scouting that support the HS coach in his Rah Rah get your head out of your a## speech and would love to play for a coach like that.  They would say sometimes a coach needs to get into his players, it shows passion it shows he cares.  If one believes that to be true (I'm not saying I do), then you have to accept human elements and non-numerical, gut feeling, the coach has a feeling, the will to win in - in a player within baseball decision making.  If not isn't supporting or believing the Rah Rah coach has a positive influence to get his players attention a contradiction?

This might not pertain to any who have posted in support of sabermetrics here.

I suspect that when you look into a “rah rah” coach who’s well respected by his players, you’ll more often than not find there’s many reasons other than the rah rah screaming and cursing that earn the respect. I’m not someone who responds well to hollering and cursing, but there are coaches I respect who do that.