Setting the defense based on previous at bats

The question becomes how did the ball get there in the first place. Was it a bad pitch call, a missed spot or were you playing and pitching the hitter to pull? Whatever transpired that allowed the ball to arrive to the 3rd baseman should dictate what transpires on the next at bat.

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Originally posted by IEBSBL:
The question becomes how did the ball get there in the first place. Was it a bad pitch call, a missed spot or were you playing and pitching the hitter to pull? Whatever transpired that allowed the ball to arrive to the 3rd baseman should dictate what transpires on the next at bat.

I’m not at all saying you’re wrong, because you aren’t, but how many coaches do you know who track enough data to answer that question? I’m sure there are some that could do it so it would be available after the game when there’s plenty of time to look at all the data, and come to a conclusion. But during a game with all the things going on, it seems to me that that would be asking a heck of a lot for a coach.

There’s no doubt in my mind that hitters are predictable to at least some degree, and that’s easily seen by looking at a scatter chart of where they historically hit the ball. But there are so many things that could affect what happens from 1 at bat to the next, I honestly don’t see it being worth the effort. I;ve seen coaches move their defense based on the last at bat, when the pitchers have no only changed, but one was a LHP and the other was an RHP.

I think the problem Stats, with all due respect, is that you're only looking at it from a data standpoint, not a "baseball" standpoint.

Meaning...I may not be shifting my defense based in the result, but rather what caused the result. I may see something in the hitters stance, approach, swing, or a hundred other things that makes me confident enough to shift my guys. I feel like sometimes seeing a guy in 4 live at bats may help me decide how to pitch or play him as much as a 20 AB spray chart.

I agree that there are some subpar coaches out there who see a ball scorched at their 1b and label the guy pull or oppo. That's ridiculous. And I've seen it happen a lot.

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Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:

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Originally posted by IEBSBL:
The question becomes how did the ball get there in the first place. Was it a bad pitch call, a missed spot or were you playing and pitching the hitter to pull? Whatever transpired that allowed the ball to arrive to the 3rd baseman should dictate what transpires on the next at bat.

I’m not at all saying you’re wrong, because you aren’t, but how many coaches do you know who track enough data to answer that question? I’m sure there are some that could do it so it would be available after the game when there’s plenty of time to look at all the data, and come to a conclusion. But during a game with all the things going on, it seems to me that that would be asking a heck of a lot for a coach.

There’s no doubt in my mind that hitters are predictable to at least some degree, and that’s easily seen by looking at a scatter chart of where they historically hit the ball. But there are so many things that could affect what happens from 1 at bat to the next, I honestly don’t see it being worth the effort. I;ve seen coaches move their defense based on the last at bat, when the pitchers have no only changed, but one was a LHP and the other was an RHP.

1st off, who are these "people" you see doing this...at the higher levels of baseball you go into games with scouting reports and those will dictate where the defense is played....also if a pitcher has command and you know what pitches you are going to call you have a good idea of where the ball wil go...also a "good" coach can get an idea of what type of swing a guy has in as little as one at bat...also the game situation dictates where the defense plays almost as much as who the hitter is.

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But during a game with all the things going on, it seems to me that that would be asking a heck of a lot for a coach.

That is why it is a coaching staff and not a coach. Everything is based off our program philosophy and how to attack a hitter. Typically we are going to throw fastball to 1 side of the plate or the other mixed in with a slider or change. We get this information based on what type of hitter we see. For example. If a kid is a "hook Barrel" he will only see fastballs away and sliders. If a player is a "drag barrel" he will only see inside fastballs and sliders. If we are going to throw changes to either of these hitters we will only throw him for show. Based of this philosophy we then can shift our defense based off of this knowledge with the OF coach doing his shift and the infield coach doing his shift.

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Originally posted by ironhorse:
I think the problem Stats, with all due respect, is that you're only looking at it from a data standpoint, not a "baseball" standpoint.

No disrespect taken. Looking at the issue from a data standpoint is the only way to prove/disprove beliefs with any kind of validity.

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Meaning...I may not be shifting my defense based in the result, but rather what caused the result. I may see something in the hitters stance, approach, swing, or a hundred other things that makes me confident enough to shift my guys. I feel like sometimes seeing a guy in 4 live at bats may help me decide how to pitch or play him as much as a 20 AB spray chart.

What I’m understanding you to say is, you don’t adjust your defense by where a player hit the ball, but by doing some kind of rapid fire quick analysis of hundreds of factors, and that’s fine, It’s a much more sound approach than saying he hit the ball to right last time, so let’s shift that way.

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I agree that there are some subpar coaches out there who see a ball scorched at their 1b and label the guy pull or oppo. That's ridiculous. And I've seen it happen a lot.

And that was my entire point! A couple weeks back I was talking with two notable local coaches, one a long time very successful HS coach, and the other an extremely successful college coach. I was working on something that displays information about the current batter, based on previous data. The HS coach said it was VERY important to know how and where the batter had hit the ball in previous at bats.

I currently have the ability to show whether a batter hit a grounder, pop up, fly, or line drive, but not whether it was hit weakly, solidly, or routinely, which was how he was having that information charted. I could do that, but quite honestly see no useful reason for such detailed subjective information during a game. But be that as it may, I decided to see if I could use the data I had available to see if I could detect any kind of detectable pattern of outcome during a game that could be used to align a defense.

This link is a report I threw together, based on Sunday’s Clev/Balt game. Look at it batter by batter an d see how much “adjusting” your defense from 1 AB to the next for each player would help you.

http://www.infosports.com/scor...ges/scatterlookt.pdf

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Originally posted by bsballfan:1st off, who are these "people" you see doing this...

Over the years I’ve seen it done on the field by more than just a few rare coaches. Granted, they are “normally” inexperienced coaches who are only going by what they THINK should be done, but occasionally I come across a very experienced coach who SAYS he does that, but if you closely, he’s doing something very different.

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at the higher levels of baseball you go into games with scouting reports and those will dictate where the defense is played....

True. As you go down the level ladder, where does that stop? Mil? College? HS? Would you take a guess at how much of the baseball world that covers? I’d guess about 1% or less.

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also if a pitcher has command and you know what pitches you are going to call you have a good idea of where the ball wil go...

Again, take a guess at the percentage of pitchers that covers. One tenth of 1 percent, maybe?

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also a "good" coach can get an idea of what type of swing a guy has in as little as one at bat...also the game situation dictates where the defense plays almost as much as who the hitter is.

Then why worry about where the ball went the last AB?

Forums like this aren’t supposed to validate what good coaches do. They’re supposed to help coaches who aren’t so good, get better, and that’s why I asked the question.

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Originally posted by IEBSBL:
That is why it is a coaching staff and not a coach. Everything is based off our program philosophy and how to attack a hitter. Typically we are going to throw fastball to 1 side of the plate or the other mixed in with a slider or change. We get this information based on what type of hitter we see. For example. If a kid is a "hook Barrel" he will only see fastballs away and sliders. If a player is a "drag barrel" he will only see inside fastballs and sliders. If we are going to throw changes to either of these hitters we will only throw him for show. Based of this philosophy we then can shift our defense based off of this knowledge with the OF coach doing his shift and the infield coach doing his shift.

That’s all fine and dandy, and worthy of its own discussion, but really has nothing to do with the OP. I guess the bottom line is, I’m saying that a coach shouldn’t base his defense on what happened in previous at bats in the game.

I'm with ironhorse on this one.

1 When my baseball instinct tells me that the batter hit the ball randomly to a certain spot on the field, I'll play him straightaway next time he's up.

2 When my bb instinct tells me that it occurred because of something about his swing or approach--combined with the way our pitching is throwing to him-- I'm more likely to shift a defender(s) the next time he's up.

I tend to tolerate less shifting than most coaches. I actively herd my defenders back to straightaway positioning--the defenders with good memories tend to shift towards where the batter hit it in his first at-bat.

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Originally posted by freddy77:
I'm with ironhorse on this one.

1 When my baseball instinct tells me that the batter hit the ball randomly to a certain spot on the field, I'll play him straightaway next time he's up.

[QUOTE]2 When my bb instinct tells me that it occurred because of something about his swing or approach--combined with the way our pitching is throwing to him-- I'm more likely to shift a defender(s) the next time he's up.

And how does your “baseball instinct” make that determination? Do you automatically remember what every batter did and how your pitchers threw to him with precision, or do you use something to jog your memory?

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I tend to tolerate less shifting than most coaches. I actively herd my defenders back to straightaway positioning--the defenders with good memories tend to shift towards where the batter hit it in his first at-bat.

Now I’m confused. Are you saying that on a batter’s 4th at bat, fielders with good memories will ignore what happened on the 2nd and 3rd but remember the 1st and tend to “cheat” that way? Do you then call time and reposition them, use some kind of signals to reposition them, or do you just let it go?

Stats: I honestly don't understand why you, in thread after thread, insinuate that because you keep book at HS games know more about baseball than the coaches...you rely on really, really, really small sample sizes that are against incredibly varying levles of compeition to make "decisions" and call them gospel and how dare a coach make decisinos when he could just ask the guy with the 4 dollar scorebooka and Microsoft Excel program to do it for him....that's not even sabremetrics...reminds me of what my Math professor told me in school "no math is better than bad math"

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Originally posted by bsballfan:
Stats: I honestly don't understand why you, in thread after thread, insinuate that because you keep book at HS games know more about baseball than the coaches...you rely on really, really, really small sample sizes that are against incredibly varying levles of compeition to make "decisions" and call them gospel and how dare a coach make decisinos when he could just ask the guy with the 4 dollar scorebooka and Microsoft Excel program to do it for him....that's not even sabremetrics...reminds me of what my Math professor told me in school "no math is better than bad math"

I insinuate nothing of the sort. You believe that I do because you have no way argue using anything other than guesses and anecdotal evidence that many of the things baseball dogma promotes is true. So while I only have access to what is admittedly a small sample size when compared to all the possible data in the baseball world, what do you offer to refute or prove anything you say? NOTHING!

Why don’t you offer proof one way or the other as I do? I have nothing to prove, and have for many years been more than willing to dig through the data I have to try to prove what someone else believes, because unlike you, I don’t care who’s right or wrong, I just like to know what’s true and what isn’t.

You have never once ever read anything I ever wrote that claimed what I offer for inspection was anything more than what it is. Data. I don’t try to tell anyone what it means because there are so many others out there like yourself who claim they have all the answers.

BTW, I’ve never used an Excel spreadsheet to do any statistical analysis other than for a velocity equivalence sheet I use to be able to convert a velocity on one size field to another. And, I haven’t used a 4 dollar scorebook for more than 15 years. But, even if I used a blank sheet of paper with lines drawn on it to keep score, and a spreadsheet to store, analyze, and format the data for presentation, so what? Does that mean the data is completely wrong and has no value?

I don’t claim to be a Sabermatrician, and in fact am quite up front about not being at all qualified to do what they do. But its not because I’m a dolt, its because there aren’t any ways to apply many of the things they do at any level other than the ML or Mil levels.

So tell me. What is it that I do that’s “bad math”? Explain it to me. I know I often make mistakes in a formula or algorithm, but when its pointed out to me I correct it. So c’mon and tell me what it is I do that’s bad math.

Here’s what’s sad. All I did was ask a question. I’m wondering how valid a strategy that is.

I didn’t say it was a bad strategy, nor a good one. All I did was ask a question any you go off half-cocked like some grumpy old farmer who’s found out some kids have swiped a watermelon.

Stats- Baseball instinct is created by experience playing and coaching the game. The best sabermetricians on the face of the earth would never argue that scouting and coaching aren't extremely important in a game.

As a college pitcher, I can sometimes judge a hitter's approach and likely tendencies in one pitch. The better the hitter, the less tendencies and holes they have.

There are people who have been around this game for 60+ years who have been paid their entire life to do the same exact thing- and do it much better than I can.

Stats are important, but they aren't everything. Hitting mechanics are easily a tell-tale sign of a purposely defensive alignment, or a pitch sequence.

I do, however, agree with you that it frustrates me when I hear coaches that say "he hit it hard to 3rd base last time, therefore I'm moving my shortstop towards the hole," with no other evidence to back up that claim. But you're insinuating that it is impossible to determine a hitter's tendencies with the naked eye, and with all due respect, that's simply blasphemous.

As a side note, the above instance that I cited is something I see at younger levels of the game. I've never seen it in high school and beyond.

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Originally posted by J H:
Stats- Baseball instinct is created by experience playing and coaching the game. The best sabermetricians on the face of the earth would never argue that scouting and coaching aren't extremely important in a game.

And????? Your implication is that I don’t believe that. What have I ever said that was any different?

[/QUOTE]As a college pitcher, I can sometimes judge a hitter's approach and likely tendencies in one pitch. The better the hitter, the less tendencies and holes they have. [/QUOTE]

And????? Please tell me what in the world that has to do with my original question? I question the efficacy of moving defenses based on the previous at bat in a game, and you go on about how you can judge hitter’s likely tendencies in just one pitch. I don’t doubt you can do that, but what does your ability to do that have to do with where a batter hit the ball the last time up and moving defenses accordingly?

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There are people who have been around this game for 60+ years who have been paid their entire life to do the same exact thing- and do it much better than I can.

And???????

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Stats are important, but they aren't everything. Hitting mechanics are easily a tell-tale sign of a purposely defensive alignment, or a pitch sequence.

Please, please PLEASE tell me where I ever said stats were the end all of baseball analysis, or that they were any more important than baseball knowledge? PLEASE, just show me where I said that. Don’t go by what you think I said or what someone else thinks I said.

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I do, however, agree with you that it frustrates me when I hear coaches that say "he hit it hard to 3rd base last time, therefore I'm moving my shortstop towards the hole," with no other evidence to back up that claim. But you're insinuating that it is impossible to determine a hitter's tendencies with the naked eye, and with all due respect, that's simply blasphemous.

So, you’ve seen and heard the exact same things I have, which prompted the original question. Great! I was beginning to think I was in the Twilight Zone.

Now that we have that issue resolved, what do you feel I said that insinuated it was impossible to determine that?

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As a side note, the above instance that I cited is something I see at younger levels of the game. I've never seen it in high school and beyond.

Well, no insult intended, because I know you simply don’t have the experience many do, but I’ve seen it, and it isn’t exactly rare. It isn’t something that goes by level as much as by experience. Every year I see at least a couple new HS asst coaches do that, and judging from what my son tells me as a JV coach, he comes across it several times a season or so, and he and the head coach laugh at it when they see it.

Remember, HSB includes Fr and JV games as well as V, and it isn’t unusual to get inexperienced coaches when its all volunteers.

I would encourage you to go back and read some of your posts on other topics and tell me who comes off like a know-it-all.

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pd

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Originally posted by bsballfan:
I would encourage you to go back and read some of your posts on other topics and tell me who comes off like a know-it-all.

Try this. Instead of trying to make me look like a jerk, go back and read the OP, then look at the data I posted. Then make your argument one way or the other, without dragging in baseball instincts or anything else, and we’ll start from the beginning to try to come to some rational conclusion.

I just logged back onto this site and your response comes as no surprise to me, Stats. I'll format mine in the same way you did yours.

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And????? Your implication is that I don’t believe that. What have I ever said that was any different?

I interpreted the following as an insinuation that you don't believe in "baseball instinct". If I am incorrect in that assumption, I apologize:

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And how does your “baseball instinct” make that determination? Do you automatically remember what every batter did and how your pitchers threw to him with precision, or do you use something to jog your memory?

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And????? Please tell me what in the world that has to do with my original question? I question the efficacy of moving defenses based on the previous at bat in a game, and you go on about how you can judge hitter’s likely tendencies in just one pitch. I don’t doubt you can do that, but what does your ability to do that have to do with where a batter hit the ball the last time up and moving defenses accordingly?

The ability to judge a hitter's approach is literally the reason why a defense is shifted after one at-bat...or in the instance I drew up, one pitch.

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Please, please PLEASE tell me where I ever said stats were the end all of baseball analysis, or that they were any more important than baseball knowledge? PLEASE, just show me where I said that. Don’t go by what you think I said or what someone else thinks I said.

I, like everyone else, simply interpret things as I see them.

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So, you’ve seen and heard the exact same things I have, which prompted the original question. Great! I was beginning to think I was in the Twilight Zone.

Now that we have that issue resolved, what do you feel I said that insinuated it was impossible to determine that?

You've had tendencies in the past to look down upon typical coaching and scouting and focus on the statistical side of things when in reality, they very much are important in their own right and in different ways.

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Well, no insult intended, because I know you simply don’t have the experience many do, but I’ve seen it, and it isn’t exactly rare. It isn’t something that goes by level as much as by experience. Every year I see at least a couple new HS asst coaches do that, and judging from what my son tells me as a JV coach, he comes across it several times a season or so, and he and the head coach laugh at it when they see it.

Remember, HSB includes Fr and JV games as well as V, and it isn’t unusual to get inexperienced coaches when its all volunteers.

I believe you, and what you're saying is unfortunate.


Please try to understand, Stats, that the discussions being had on this website are not usually meant to be argumentative. You seem to get very defensive over examples that other people might provide during a discussion, and its very unflattering.

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Originally posted by J H:
I just logged back onto this site and your response comes as no surprise to me, Stats. I'll format mine in the same way you did yours.

That’s way I almost always “format” my responses when I want to try to reduce the misunderstandings as much as I can.

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I interpreted the following as an insinuation that you don't believe in "baseball instinct". If I am incorrect in that assumption, I apologize:

Well, your assumption was totally in error, but I accept the apology because I don’t’ think you meant anything mean or personal. All I was doing was trying to determine how freedy77’s baseball instinct got developed, because I know its not a genetic thing. So, I was wondering if he tracked some data points, read books, or whatever to develop that instinct.

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The ability to judge a hitter's approach is literally the reason why a defense is shifted after one at-bat...or in the instance I drew up, one pitch.

Fine. I didn’t disagree with that. My question was about basing the move on the location of where the ball was hit in previous at bats in the same game.

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I, like everyone else, simply interpret things as I see them.

And why would you interpret my believing stats should override everything else, and nothing else has any worth? Evidently you leaped to the conclusion that I look at numbers a lot and believe they have a lot of value, that nothing else does. That’s a very hasty generalization with absolutely no basis in fact.

You've had tendencies in the past to look down upon typical coaching and scouting and focus on the statistical side of things when in reality, they very much are important in their own right and in different ways. [/QUOTE]

You’ve misinterpreted what I’ve said, and my motives again. Just because I believe the numbers have value, why does it have to follow that I’m looking “down upon typical coaching and scouting”? If anything, its quite the opposite, but I doubt may would see it because they’ve already made up their minds based on the fact that I refuse to just accept things without question.

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I believe you, and what you're saying is unfortunate.

I think its unfortunate too, but unless its recognized that not ALL coaches in HS are experienced and understand some of the nuances of the game, it will never change. People have to recognize a problem before it can be dealt with. Now just to make it clear, what we’re talking about here isn’t a scourge that the majority of coaches suffer from, or even that 1 in 100 suffer from. But it isn’t exactly rare, and the good news is, it’s a condition that time and experience almost always cures. Trouble is, there are new guys coming in all the time, and since there’s no certification process in this country, its hit and miss whether or not a coach will believe that stuff.

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Please try to understand, Stats, that the discussions being had on this website are not usually meant to be argumentative. You seem to get very defensive over examples that other people might provide during a discussion, and its very unflattering.

Unflattering or not, I can’t help it when someone gets wildly critical of me and what I believe and they’re so away from what I said, its crazy. When I post a question, a very simple question at that, and almost everyone fails to not only try to answer the question, but come up with things far off the subject, then claim I say things and take positions that exist only in their minds, it makes me defensive.

If someone wants to discuss baseball instincts, I think it would be a great topic. But that’s nowhere near what I tried to discuss.