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Something I did for the heck of it...

TPMTPMHSBaseballweb Member since 2003
I happened to be going through some things yesterday and came across the following:

Baseball America 2004 draft preview.
The preview was broken down into 4 regions.
The following is a list of the most active states (2004) for prospects.

West Region
SoCal 40 listed out of possible 100
NoCal 20 listed out of possible 50
AZ 12 listed out of possible 30
NV 10 listed out of possible 20
WA 15 listed out of 30
OR 10 listed out of 20

Midwest Region
TX 30 listed out of possible 70
ILL 10 listed outof possible 25
LA 20 listed out of possible 40
Missouri 10 listed out of possible 20

South Region
FL 40 listed out of possible 60
GA 20 listed out of possible 40
SC 12 listed out of possible 25
NC 12 listed outof possible 25
TN 20 listed out of possible 30
AL 12 listed out od possible 25
MISS 10 listed out of 20

Northeast Region
NY 15 listed out of 30
NJ 15 listed out of 30
VA 20 listed out of 30
Ohio 15 listed out of 25
IN 15 listed out of 25
PA 15 listed out of 25

I did not list any state that had less than 10 prospects listed.

The prospects were HS , 2 YR, 4YR combined. After glancing over the lists, there are definetly more college draft prospects than HS prospects, many states were exclusively college. The only states that were almost 50-50 were GA, FL, SoCal and NoCal combined and Texas.

So using this as an example, there were definetly more HS prospects coming out of the above 4 states than any other. However, since MOST of the prospects were college players, is hard to tell where the propect originally came from (state). Could assume most of those state players stay within their states?
Using South Carolina as an example, 11 of the 12 listed were college players and I know many of them were not homegrown.
Also, many of the top prospects were drafted, so BA was pretty much right on the money with naming the top prospects (as always). And as I mentioned not all were listed in the publication. I do not know if the ones not listed were from college or HS.

So for those who want to believe that CA, FL, TX have the most talent, I would tend to agree, if we are to assume that the college prospects in that state are homegrown. However, these states tend to have HUGE populations, beside enjoying the better climate.

The only real conclusion I have come to from this is that attending college definetly can help improve one's prospect status. Smile
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FungoFungoHighly Regarded and Beloved Old Timer
quote:
The only real conclusion I have come to from this is that attending college definetly can help improve one's prospect status.

At first glance it does appear as such BUT... The numbers are skewed. Just about every player that was a high school prospect and chose college becomes a college prospect. High school players are prospects for 1 year (senior year) so they are counted one time. A college player can be counted as many as four times. JUCO players are prospects for 2 years (Freshman and sophmore) Four year college players can be prospects for two years (junior and senior). There are college players that progress and others regress. Most players do improve their baseball skills in college but that doesn't necessarily equate to improving their draft status.
FungoFungoHighly Regarded and Beloved Old Timer
No, it would be a fluke at any one time to have more high school prospects than college prospects. This is comparing aples to oranges. You have to look at college as a four year holding area of talent. Let me give you an example.
For sake of discussion let's say that Tennessee high schools will produce exactly 10 prospects per year and will continue with 10 per year for the next five years. If none turn pro and opt to continue their education (as most do) the college numbers quickly grow. If all 10 prospects graduate from high school and attend junior college or a 4 year college the number of prospects at the college level will be greater because those 10 will add to the existing college prospects. This information doesn’t suggest that players get better in college because the numbers SHOULD be much greater simply because the prospects are counted from 4 different college classes as compared to only 1 high school class. I know you will say that college players leave in proportionately equal numbers to the incoming high school players and while that is true .... college players are counted as prospects each year for up to four years.
Fungo

Improve at college? It could go either way ... My son was a better ball player after playing three years of college ball but he dropped a round in the draft from high school as did one of his teammates. While many players aren’t considered prospects in high school, they can flourish in college but don’t count on it. My son also had another teammate that was a projected first rounder out of high school but was adamant about going to college. He turned down a LARGE sum of money as a free agent and then as bad luck would have it, he went un-drafted after four years of playing college baseball and ended his baseball career.

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