Spot in Order w/ most RBI chances?

i say 3rd, I don't have the facts but I rember an article in SI last year with all the components to make a perfect lineup.

It all depends on the hitters in the lineup ahead of you--I do not think you can generalize

If we use a Major League Schedule, #3 will get (approximately) “72” more plate appearances than #7 for the season.

#4 will get (approximately) “54” more plate appearances than #7 for the season.

#5 will get (approximately) “36” more plate appearances than #7 for the season.

Because of the numbers above, I would guess #3 or #4 because they hit behind the best table setters and get the most plate appearances.

PG

Regardless of the position the guys in front of you have to get on so you get RBI's---

EXAMPLE:The loss of Damon for instance at the top the Red Sox lineup can severely impact what happens with the # 3 , 4 and 5 guys in their lineup and conversely it can have a very positive impact on the the middle of the Yankee lineup

You cannot knock in guys if they are not on base in front of you

Spot in Order w/most RBI chances can depend on #1 and #2 hitters' OBP. If the top two hitters are not getting on base as much as Coach prefers it may be more beneficial to drop #3 hitter down in order to #6 but make sure newly assigned #3-#5 hitters get on base more than top two hitters so team can benefit from more run production. Have known a couple of coaches who believed in this philosophy and benefited greatly from it

Shep

TR,

Not sure, but I think we might be talking about two completely different things.

Point was... The #3 and #4 hitters will have more plate appearances (chances) than the #7 hitter over the course of a season. They also hit behind those who are supposed to be the top "on base" guys.

I do think what LOW337 mentioned regarding the #7 hitter could be possible if it were based on RBI opportunities per each at bat! Lots of good OB% on many 4,5,6 hitters and lots of extra base hits putting them in scoring position.

PG

I hear ya--but you dont get RBI chances no matter how many times to the plate if you dont have runners on base. On many teams the * #7 hitter could be the big RBI guy on other teams he cannot

I agree completely with TRhit. The guy that has the most RBI opportunities is the guy that bats behind the guy that leads the team in OPS.

Here is the original question.

quote:

I've only been told this and have come to believe it.......the question is what spot in the order has more RBI CHANCES than any other spot in the order.........??????

I was told long ago it was 7......I have never kept statistics on it but I can believe it.....

What do you think?

I'd like to think everyone would know that the guy who hits with the most runners on base will get the most RBI chances. That goes without saying!

What I'm trying to say is that will be #3, #4 or #5 in most cases.

If #1 and #2 are not getting the job done... they should not be hitting in those spots. In other words, the lineup needs to be changed if 5 and 6 are getting on base more than 1 and 2.

Using a Major League season... The 3 hole will have approximately "72" more plate appearances than the 7 hole hitter. The 4 hole hitter about 54 more PA than 7 hole.

That is the equivelant of playing close to 20 extra games! All while hitting behind the top of the order. The #4 hitter will have the equivelant of about 16 more games than #7. All hitting behind the top of the order and normally the top hitter #3.

I haven't got time to write out the math that causes this, but it goes kind of like this;
The only way in any game that the 9 hitter has equal plate appearances of the 1 hitter is if the 9 hitter makes the final out of the game. All other games the 1 hitter will have one more PA.

If you work the formula down to the diffence between the 3 and 7 or 4 and 7, the difference is fairly obvious.

Of course, an easier way to find out is look up the stats of those who hit in those spots in the lineup.

The question is what spot in order has more RBI CHANCES than any other spot in the order.

OK. I will try this another way. If we analize RBI opportunities by the number of plate appearances alone, the number 2 hitter has "more chances" because he bats more often with the possibility of someone ahead of him getting on base. The case for the 2 hitter could further be made if, in fact, the leadoff hitter has the best OBP on the team [which he should have or someone else should be batting leadoff]. However there are two major problems with the 2 hitter being the right answer.

First a bit of analysis. The first time up, the 2 hitter has the chance [unless he hits a HR] to only have one RBI. But, if the leadoff hitter gets on base, it is an RBI chance nonetheless. Furthermore, the second time up the 2 hitter has, in theory, the same opportunity for one or multiple base runners as every other hitter. Therefore, if everyone on the team has the same OPS the number 2 hitter is the correct answer to the question whether you are asking for the spot that provides the largest number of opportunities to obtain one RBI or the opportunity to have the most RBIs.

But we all know and it goes without saying that the second time up the 2 hitter, to have multiple runners on base, is dependent on the 8 & 9 hitters getting on base and, in reality, they should have significantly less OPS than the leadoff hitter [or, in a rational environment, they would be batting somewhere else besides 8 or 9.]

The second reason the number 2 hitter will not likely obtain an RBI when the leadoff hitter is on ahead of him is because the number 2 hitters are often not allowed to hit for an RBI, especially if the leadoff hitter did not advance past 1B. Instead, they are asked to advance the leadoff runner to 2B or 3B. Why? Because it is easier to score from 2B then from 1B on a single [by far and away statistically the hit most often hit by any hitter in any part of the lineup] and easier still to score from 3B even on outs and prevailing baseball wisdom concludes that it is worth allowing the 2 hitter to be put out 9.5 out of 10 [assuming a FLD% of .950]times to advance the leadoff runner in lieu of allowing the 2 hitter to bat and risk the double play or some other failure to advance the runner which will occur 5.5 out of 10 times [assumming the 2 hitter has a .400 OBP].

So, what about the #3 hitter? Well if the #1 and #2 hitters have the best OBP on the team, the #3 hitter will, by the mere fact of more plate apearances, have the most opportunities to obtain 1 RBI. But will he have the opportunity for the most RBIs. Not necessarily if the #1 and #2 hitters have little or no SLG%. Let us plug in these hitters to our above scenario. 4 out of 6 times #1 gets on 1B and #2 sacrifices him to 2B. There is one out. One out of 3 times #3 hitter gets a hit. RBI. Two out of three time, he gets out. Two outs. One out of 3 times in this 2 out situation, #4 hitter gets a hit. RBI [asuming #3 did not hit into a double play; Chipper Jones comes to mind here]. Two out of three times he gets out. Three outs. No RBI chance for #5 next inning.

6 out of 10 times #1 does not reach first. One out. On those ocassions 4 out of 10 times #2 hitter will reach first. #3 hitter is now in the same position in this situation as #4 was in the above situation. #3 hitter will not be asked to sacrifice #2 to 2B in MLB. Why? Because the reality is GMs and owners don't pay a coach to have the #3 hitter bunt with one out or even no outs so the #4 hiter gets an RBI opportunity. One out of 3 times #3 hitter gets a hit. Depending on his SLG% he may get an RBI or not. If his hit is a single, #4 hitter comes up with a better quality RBI opportunity then #3 because the #2 hitter is either on 2B or 3B. If #3 hits anything but a HR #4 hitter comes up with a better quality RBI opportunity then #3 because #3 is either on 2B or 3B with one out.

So, if the #3 hitter got his RBI with a hit, whether #4 gets an RBI greatly depends on where #3 hitter ended up [the statistical probability of where that will be is dependent on #3's SLG%]. If he is on 1B, #4 hitter must hit a double or better to score #3 hitter and get his RBI [the statistical chances of that happening are in #4's SLG%].

This could go on and on and where would it lead? So can we agree that the OPS of the hitter ahead of me will determine, if not the gross number of possible RBI chances, at least the quality of my RBI chances.

I too would love to see a statistical breakdown of what spots in the batting order got the most RBI opportunities in MLB. I would bet it would be different for different teams. Then I would like to see the OPS of the runners in front of those hitters. That, of course, will never happen.

Good topic. Fun stuff to think about.

TW

This is what makes baseball such a great sport--we can discuss this topic ad infinitum and still get back to square one because there is no set pattern.

Makes for great discussion over a few beers in front of a warm winter fire.

TR,

Slightly off-topic: I am ready, re-e-eally ready, to wave goodbye to the warm winter fires for the year, and discuss the day's games over a few beers by the pool! (Or next to the Gulf - one week from today!)

TR:

A few cold beers and a warm winter fire. HMMMMMMM. Sounds like a great idea. See you.

TW344

All I'm gonna say is that for the last three summers, my leadoff hitter has averaged over 1 1/2 runs scored per game. He leads the team in on-base pct.

My #3 hitter has led the team in RBI's each of those years. He also has led the team in batting avg. & slugging pct. With #1 & #2 on base a lot, he averaged over a run batted in per game.

I guess the only way to really find out is to actually keep track of the number of RBI CHANCES...Not RBI's .....and see which place in the order gets the most CHANCES over the course of season.....I would have to believe the results could vary quite a bit...or maybe not...who know......Just food for thought.....

I have no idea who does.....I would be curious to see the results of this if it were kept track of....

06catcherdad:

One question if I may. What is the RBI total of your #4 hitter when compared to the #3. No point to make here. Only curious.

TW344

I just recently saw an article on just this topic. I forget who did the study, but some stats company ran the numbers and the most RBI chances by far were in the 4th and 5th spot in the order, followed by the 7th spot, and finally the 3rd spot.
Surprising about the 3rd spot, but writer's thought was that the 3 hole hitter came up more often than anyone else in a 2 out, nobody on spot.
Solid info NOT to put your best hitter in the 3 spot.
I'll try and located the article again - it was a good read.

quote:

Originally posted by LOW337:
I guess the only way to really find out is to actually keep track of the number of RBI CHANCES

Well, technically speaking, every at-bat is an RBI chance, becuase a solo homer is an RBI

quote:

It all depends on the hitters in the lineup ahead of you

The hitter behind you can also have an effect. My 4 hole guy can go deep on any good pitch, so my 3 hole guy usually gets better pitches to hit.

quote:

Well, technically speaking, every at-bat is an RBI chance, becuase a solo homer is an RBI

Come on dude.....Ok...by RBI chances I mean who (which spot in the order over the corse of a season) comes to the plate most often w/ men on second and third, second only or third only. IN THE BIG LEAGUES.