Startling failure rate of boys at next level.

2018's HS team had 3 D1 players. Two had very little success in the 1st year, but both had terrific starts to their respective seasons before the shutdown. The third D1 player red shirted, then stopped playing for SO year. He is at a great school which he has made a commitment to, so i could argue that his decision to go there has worked out very well for him.

They had 3 D3(or equivalent) players, including my son. One quit midway through the first year then transferred to a school where he will not be playing BB. The other is still at his school, and had a good start to his SO season after a less than stellar FR year. He will be fine...can hit the heck out of the ball. My son has had a very good experience at his HA school, both on the field and off. 

   One player went JUCO. He played 1 1/2 years till C-19 messed with future plans. I know he was hoping to transfer to a D1 or 2.

  So after two years 5 of 7 players are still going. I would say that two of them have a chance to be drafted, if they ever go back to a 40 round draft. The two that are no longer playing BB are at two vg to elite Universities, so don't shed any tears for them.

   A lot of 57Special Jr's acquaintances  that went the D1/JUCO route have had roller coaster rides so far, though. A lot are on their 2nd school already, and are looking to make it 3. I wonder what they will do with themselves if they can't play baseball. 

Parent's perspective for what it is worth....do not think that your son is capable of playing P5 baseball based solely on his PG and HS results. Watching PG All Americans struggle for playing time at a P5 school is a reality check!

What most parents to not know is that the "50" players that are chosen for the PG ALL AMERICAN games are only a very small fraction of the talent that is out there and in a lot of cases, those 50 players are not truly the best available talent! 

The above thought was made very clear to me while watching a broadcast of the PG All American games a few years back. An MLB analyst came on and said, there is no real value in HS baseball states.

Also, if your son is throwing cheese and dominating in a HS environment, do not let him get a big head.....fast and straight is what P5 hitters eat for breakfast!

Son's Freshman season revealed how many of the velocity driven guys spent more time on the bench than the "Command and Control" guys! Outs are everything in college baseball! 

What Showball is saying isn't so far off the mark IMO.  Who gets any of those precious 11.7 scholarships?  90+ velo, plus power hitters, etc.  Size, speed and power are "projected" to what a player might become and decisions are made. on who gets offered.  The reliance on showcases does allow for players to match up and show how they can do against consistently better competition than they might have in the local HS district.  So both are factors but this site is a mile deep with posts about what players project to be rather than what the result of any HS competition yields when it comes down to the rubber meeting the road for P5 colleges.   

Once a coach places a bet - it is human nature to give that bet the first best chance to work out in his favor.  Think about  1st round NFL picks to illustrate this.  Guys that are busts often get 2nd and 3rd cracks AFTER failing.  The scrappy free agent guy from NW State U will get one shot and if he sprains a knee it can be over for him.

In the end if you get the chance and perform well coaches will play you....but the starting point does matter regarding who gets 1st crack and if there are 2nd or 3rd chances.

At least there is some merit to it.  All the money in the world cannot buy a 90 MPH fastball....yet.

The reliance on showcases does allow for players to match up and show how they can do against consistently better competition than they might have in the local HS district.

In addition to playing in weekend tournaments and showcases my son played on a weeknight scout league team. A high school dad asked if my son dominated those games like he dominated high school. I explained the competition was like taking the top two players off each team in our high school league. My son didn’t dominate. He fit in.

I invited the dad to go with me one night. He couldn’t believe what he saw. What shocked him was the air of confidence each player had competing at this level.

RJM has it right.  My son spent one last spring in the rec league before moving into travel ball full time.  In that 12 months he started with travel ball I learned an immense amount about the baseball subculture and what was in front of us.

When I went to those last rec games I used to be amused by the overanxious parents of kids that just did not have what it took to move on past that level of ball.  Not so much that they wanted their kid to do well - we all want that but the fact that they just did not know what was out there beyond the neighborhood park.

One of these parents said to me - looks like we'll be spending a lot of time together the next 8 years as he envisioned Little League through HS with our kids playing side by side.  I smiled and said "yeah probably" but I knew his son was probably playing the last 10 games of his life and I felt bad for him that he didn't see it coming because he was so fired up to be part of it.

The interesting part for me was my son was very good.  There was a kid the next town over that the two of them were nearly identical.  My son's shoulder gave out after Jr. Year in HS and he never recovered.  Girls and partying and he quit.  My heart was broken - not so much that he was hurt but by the opportunity he had and just flushed because he didn't fight for it,

The other kid made the majors and signed an extension last year. My son came and flopped on the couch with a beer in his hand as we watched him play.  We did something we hadn't done for 10 years which was talk about baseball.  After about 15 minutes he broke down and cried.  It was then he said how much he screwed up by not fighting for his baseball career.

it was Fathers day .....and the truth of being a parent was laid bare....no matter how much we know....no matter how much we try...no matter how much we love them....they will do what they want and we have to live with it and pick up the pieces when it goes bad....if we can.