Statistics

Topics...different directions?

I think I'll be intentionally walked on this one...see you later guys!

I'd be interested...But I always felt statistics can't be the only thing looked at. All the baseball intagibles make some players but better than they look on paper.

baseballpapa:

I for one think it is a good idea. As you may already know we have the "statistics don't mean anything, there all inflated/deflated/conflated and therefore meaningless in any and every context" crowd who can just stay away from such a forum since they know everthing about the game anyway. But there are often questions asked about such things as "Does a sac fly count against me in my on base %?" that end up on the umpire forum or the hitting forum and really should have their own place.

Are there any sabermatricians out there that would be in favor of having your own forum? We could discuss such things as whether the sacrifice bunt truly is worthless as a run scoring philosophy or whether the formula for "runs created" should be adjusted to take into account the real world understanding that on base percentage is at least three times as valuable as sluggging percentage in creating runs. Or that, in conflict with the most universally accepted runs created math, a home run should be counted a base and some fraction of a base more than a triple since, by definition hitting a home run scores a run and hitting a triple scores a run only if someone is on base. Subject matter completely lost on and amongst the 'good natured' bickering and back biting on other less exciting forums.

Yes, I am very much for statistics questions haveing their own forum. Good luck.

TW344

I run regressions on on-base, batting average and slugging. OPS is the stat that explains runs scored more than any other. Jason Lane, however, got moved back to AAA based upon batting average. His OPS is above league average.

I know Grady Little, he is not a stats guy -- cost him one job. (Pedro Martinez vs. Yankees)

I want someone who brags they hit .300 say they don't care about stats.

Like Costner said in For Love of the Game, "we count everything in baseball."

Hey papa,

There's no rhyme or reason sometimes about statistics. EX: Wesley Wright who is a LHP and reliever for JAX SUNS who has one bad outing in all his outings which reflects high era on stats sheet. These stats are not the end-all or even a consideration sometimes. It takes seperate updated reports over a period of time to update prospect authentically. It's like owning a bank, some days are good and some days are bad, but most days are good for a successful bank If I have a bad day trying to motivate a team with a speech, I will work on that speech and try something different. I like the ole saying, "your only as good as your last AB" or "your only as statistical wise as your last appearance". Anyway, Robert Ellis and a tassle of TX scouts are over here on East Coast. I have sat with many of them at pro games doing my pro coverage and Robert Ellis is in Port St Lucie right now and I may head that way tomorrrow. He will be at a Met's game tomorrow and I would like to meet him. One of your close associates and TX full-time guys sat with me tonight He is a great man! He knows who I work for and saw my scouting creditionals first hand, face to face. He also saw the excellent relationship I have with all the upper level scouts at this game and several other games as well before he introduced himself and told me who he was. I'm not going to tell you who these people are because you already know them. They will coming back to TX soon and I'll let them tell you what they saw and who I am and where I line up. Peace, Shep

Shep,

I was talking to him today and asked if he knew you (Robert Ellis). He is a great guy and the two of you have much in common. Please do meet him. We are driving to Tallahassee next Thursday and on to Tampa. Casey will be there in a tourny for a week. Maybe we can meet.

Take two pitchers with ERA = 4.4 (the major league average). One gives up 4 or 5 runs every game, and the other usually 3 runs then has a really bad outing or two. Which one wins more games? This is why I would like to throw the stats out in this forum. Great baseball people to sift through.

How about streak hitter who hits .265 (ML average) vs. a hitter who is consistently .265. Which is the guy for your team. What about quality at bats and how do you define them. 0 for 1 but moved a runner over, struck out on 10 pitches...

Posted before I read your reply. Added a little more info on other post and Tampa is a long way from Vero and I really try to stay on East side of FL in scouting endeavors but let me speak with the Mrs. and see if I can persuade her She's the boss! Peace, Shep

quote:

How about streak hitter who hits .265 (ML average) vs. a hitter who is consistently .265. Which is the guy for your team.

This is a good one papa because I have several examples in FL STATE LEAGUE in mind. The .265 hitter who is streaky can win games and come up with more hits at crucial times, however, the hitter who is more consistent will be on base or drive in runs in more games which will benefit team more often. Here's the flip side though, .265 averages are not going to win pennants and I know of several teams who have lineups chock full of these hitters who are the bottom teams of the divisions here in the FL STATE LEAGUE. Too many variables to come up with any real concrete outcomes for a .265 hitter but interesting to ponder.

About the question you asked earlier Call Robert and ask him, he knows

According to the rules of the draft, none of the rest of us scouts are allowed to contact anyone under the protection of a team taken in draft which includes Casey. Peace Ted, Shep

In the context of High School Baseball when you are talking about less than 100 at bats,stats can be misleading.Also in HS there are big variations in level of competition.In the majors the number of at bats/games and level of competition validates the statistics.A buddy of mine said "High School stats are like a bikini,they show you something,but you don't get to see everything."

quote:

stats are like a bikini,they show you something,but you don't get to see everything."

Sooooooo True.

I was watching the replay of a lower division WI HS championship game on tv last night and they were talking about a player hitting .500 and my initial thought was "the kid has tools". Then I watched the pitching in the championship game and I wondered why it wasn't higher. This is not a rip on the player rather an example of the above quote.

Absolutely agree. In our region, there are four AAA districts. Two of them each have three inner-city high schools that field woeful teams. That means the other teams in those districts get SIX "gimme" games each year. The result is inflated averages, extra homers, low ERA's, high pitcher strikeout numbers, etc. The other two districts have one woeful team each.

You also don't know whether the coaches play the subs or the starters in the "gimme" games. Some coaches like to play their starters all the time -- some are even deliberately padding the stats to help their kids get recognition -- while others use those games to let the subs have some fun running up big numbers. I'm not criticizing either approach, but the result of all this is that you can't compare stats from one team to the next on an "apples to apples" basis.

Then there's the fact that a great player on a bad team has to hit against all the better teams, that is, the teams with the best pitchers. The kids on the best teams don't have to face the best pitchers as often because some of the stud pitchers are on their own teams. So you would expect a team with top pitching to have an advantage in the offensive categories as well.

And that doesn't even begin to cover the issues with some teams cooking the books while others play it straight! (You can't fake HR's and K's, but you can skew the numbers on hits vs. errors, earned vs. unearned runs in particular.)

Agree wholeheartedly about HS stats.

There was a player who had absolute awesome stats and truly was a "man among boys/girls" ability wise, but his stats were even more inflated when you factored in that he was playing in a very small time league with at least one team that couldn't even field an all boys team. He threw upper 80's and many of his K's were against boys/girls who had few skills and no instruction to speak of.

It wasn't his fault where he lived, just showing how HS stats can be seriously flawed. I'm sure there are a ton of similar stories out there.

BTW, he's was drafted in the first round three years later so obviously I'm not talking about my son.

Concerning college and MLB stats, I agree that you need to know "the rest of the story". Player throw's lights out for the majority of the season, coach leaves him in on an off day to save the bullpen and ends up with an inflated ERA. I'll take him anyday.

Going back to the original question, I would like to see a stats / scorekeeping forum. I can see it focusing on three things:

1) Scorekeeping questions which seems to come up regularly - e.g. under this scenario, is the run earned or unearned?

2) Info about new and old stats - e.g. how do you calculate ERA? Or what is OPS and why is it better than Batting Average for measuring hitters success (and why is it flawed)

3) College / High School / Youth Baseball stats - and when are they meaningful vs useless...

Between these three topics, I think there would be enough traffic to justify a new board.

I love the idea... then I can post all the stat arguments our family has and get them adjudicated!

I often talk to parents with kids sitting on the bench who claim their kid is hitting .400. What happens is the kid goes in to a game only when it is in hand and the pitching is non-existent. Also, every error is a base hit. I agree you have to look behind the stats. That is one reason I would like to see this topic added.

Will do Papa about the other. It's a Tradition night for sure in St Lucie Need to talk to Coach Carter about his diving/tumbling catch and also his HR last week in Pittsburgh anyway.

This thread titled "Statistics" is an excellent idea as Papa points out because stats are definitely "not" used to determine procurement of a player into college ranks, much less pro.

As a scout, the two things I focus on are mechanics and tools to play the game, not stats. How does the baseball body work in athletic actions? Is the prospect 100 percent player or is OFP much higher on projectable side. Stats seem to always be skewed in level of competition of participant, home town book-cooking or any other variables. This happens much more at HS levels and lower amateur levels. That's the reason you have got to see a player if your reporting on him. Gotta see em!
Can't scan stat sheets and expect to get the scoop! Like Papa said, "you have to look behind the stats"-Papa
So True!!
Peace, Shep

BUT, PAPPA, Grady Little didn't have a better guy to bring in than Pedro so he stayed with his best guy. You know if he had pulled Pedro and they would have lost you would still be saying the same thing, ie: Grady Little lost one job because he didn't leave Pedro in the game.

Here is the best description I can think of for the typical baseball fan. Not you Papa

08Dad:

Three excellent areas for discussion on a Stats only site. There should also be room for comparisons of MLB hitters as to "Who produces more runs for his team? The .270 BA with and OPS of 1.000 or the .310 hitter with the OPS of .800." Then there is the issue of whether Minor League stats are useful predictors of a players future MLB value. Which minor league player would be a good bargain in "a player to be named later" trade? Sounds like fun to me.

Catch43, Shep, ragarm, rz1, Midlo Dad, & FrankF:

As per usual I am in at least partial agreement with all of you. Statistics are not the only thing a team should look at. They should have someone [usually a scout] observe the young man in several game situations if they have any interest at all in him. But that initial interest is often generated by statistics. A home run is a home run and more than 10 home runs in a 25-30 High School game season is impressive. A strikeout is a strikeout and a pitcher that consistently strikes out 12 or more batters in a 7 inning game is someone to be looking at whether they throw 95 MPH at 17 years old or not. A walk is a walk but a player that leads his team, his conference and his summer league travel team year after year in total walks per season is a player that will be helpful at the next level regardless of his power numbers.

True, it is a complicated world we live in and baseball, though in some ways a very simple game from the point of view of the compliation of individual statistics, is, in the context of the playing of each and every game itself so much more complicated than any statics can ever hope to succesfully explain. However, impressive OBP, SLG, ERA, WHIP, K's per inning, are all indicators of something more. Perhaps a talent or ability that is not a compilation of "tools" but a measure of something about that player that may be even more valuable than "his tools." Something that should be carefully observed and evaluated by the perceptive ogranization whether it be a MLB Team, a College Team, or a Summer/Fall Travel Team if winning is important to the respective organization.

So, How about it HSBBW? Can we have our own forum? Can we, huh?

TW344

Vance34,

You're misreading me. I'm a friend of Twig and Tommy and really like Grady. When he took over Boston the clubhouse was a zoo. Everyone wanted out. He was perfect for that team and should not have been fired for leaving Pedro in.

That's why I want to talk stats in the world of baseball. It is simply a reality now.

I sit with scouts. They hate the book Money Ball. I think it was ironic that the book sells so well and the next year Oakland takes a bunch of high school kids.

However, I would always run the numbers and look at them.

Like it or not 6.8 in the 60 is a stat. The kid throws 92 with sink is a stat...

One of my friends is a scout. He has been in the business for a long time and not one of his drafts have made the Bigs ----- that is a stat.

HS stats can be very misleading for all the reasons mentioned above. What I would say about them is if I see a kid is hitting over .500 my antenna would go up just as if I saw a kid was hitting .200 I would have to wonder big time about his ability. The level of competition varies greatly and the short season can be misleading as well as who is keeping the stats and how accurate they are.

TW344:

Totally agree on the discussion around stats for the pros - although perhaps a little outside the scope of HSBBW, still an interesting area of discussion if we can be permitted to stray a little outside the lines...

I actually think it fits within the lines. There are pro topics and skills topics. The stat side can help sift through numbers to establish par.

For example, in the ML the average pitcher gives up just over 1 hit/inning. .35 walks/inning and .78 Ks/inning. This results in 4.4 runs per nine innings that are earned and there are another 8% runs unearned.

baseballpapa,

I agree with you. A forum on statistics would be interesting.

At the major league level - I think statistics are very reliable IMO. And the various opinions on what is statistically important is always interesting.

At college - less so. Given the aluminum bat - and the wide disparity in talent in most conferences.

In high school - in most cases - they are worthless as it regards judging how good a player is - for a variety of reasons.

JMHO

There are so many variables at play in statistics that only at a more level playing field like the majors and the number of games played do they become truly significant. However, if these circumstances don't exist - as in high school, for example - they must be taken with a grain of salt. They must be looked as a weaker performance measurement, not a rock solid indicator of performance. Parents and players alike have a tendency to overrely on statistics to prove or disprove the abilities of younger players. That being said, how can we do without them?

I agree too a thread on stats would be interesting. Some people here seem to be into interpreting stats and could answer questions.

I think in HS, and I am not a scout or recruiter, but seeing stats will peak interest as to be seen. In the scheme of things, not sure how much it really matters, in the long run as to a players projectibility for the future. But if someone is the HR leader in his state, you know he is going to create a stir! Or someone who strikes out more than others, for sure.

In looking over stats this summer at the cape I find it oh so interesting that those whose batting averages were not as good in college have taken off, those that did better in college are struggling. The top prospects are adjusting very well, and will always find a way to get on base, good OB%. An other example, the HR leader does not have the best stats. But he will be a top draft choice I am sure. As far as pitchers, I see some who have had outstanding ERA's in college drop significantly when facing better competition. It doesn't mean they are not very good pitchers (they wouldn't be there) but just an indication who you face can mean a difference in your stats, so in my opinion should not indicate you are better or not better as someone else.

It's not to hard to figure out, but these are things that can be explained to those hung up on HS or college stats. And for those of us wondering about pro stats and how each is significant at each level.

Thanks

"You want the STATS?!?"

"You can't HANDLE the STATS!!!"

Oh, it looks like you can. Have fun:

Statistics & Scorekeeping Forum

quote:

Originally posted by MN-Mom:
"You want the STATS?!?"

"You can't HANDLE the STATS!!!"

Oh, it looks like you can. Have fun:

Statistics & Scorekeeping Forum

LOL

That was funny - and pretty darn fast too!!!

Thanks Julie!!!

MN-Mom:

Thanks very much. All of us Baseball Nerds out here luv you.

Ok guys and gals. Let us begin.

TW344

Thank you Julie!!!!!