Have we been consumed by statistics?
Do they tell the true story?
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Don't know the answer to that, but they do explain a lot as to how the Red Sox passed the Yankees as a franchise. At least thats what the Torre/Verducci book says.
Research shows that 49.87% of HS baseball parents are consumed by statistics.
Other research has shown that statistics reveal 16.8% of the true story.
Other research has shown that statistics reveal 16.8% of the true story.
quote:Originally posted by Rob Kremer:
Research shows that 49.87% of HS baseball parents are consumed by statistics.
Other research has shown that statistics reveal 16.8% of the true story.
HS statistics don't mean a whole lot, 'cept for scrapbooks and all league teams I guess. Competition is too varied and too many agendas involved in how they're collected.
I'm an engineer and math geek. I keep the scorebook, I compute the stats.
I score just about every game I attend. I'm continually shocked at what I see in high school box scores versus what I recorded. What's really fun is if you have a somewhat sloppy game played by two high schools who each have a home newspaper. Go online and compare the two box scores. More fun than a Simpson's episode.
The only times I've ever valued stats is during APSs (Angry Parent Sessions). When dad, or mom or (this actually happened) grandma starts giving you the business about playing time, being able to pull out the stat sheet and point to junior's .143 batting average or .456 fielding percentage at least gives you something to compare the .543 hitter with the .955 fielding percentage who replaced him.
Won't make them happy, but I've said more than once, "What would I tell the other kid's parent if he came and complained about not playing over your son? I got nothing. Get him some professional help and earn his way back in."
When used properly, stats are one of many data points...
I score just about every game I attend. I'm continually shocked at what I see in high school box scores versus what I recorded. What's really fun is if you have a somewhat sloppy game played by two high schools who each have a home newspaper. Go online and compare the two box scores. More fun than a Simpson's episode.
The only times I've ever valued stats is during APSs (Angry Parent Sessions). When dad, or mom or (this actually happened) grandma starts giving you the business about playing time, being able to pull out the stat sheet and point to junior's .143 batting average or .456 fielding percentage at least gives you something to compare the .543 hitter with the .955 fielding percentage who replaced him.
Won't make them happy, but I've said more than once, "What would I tell the other kid's parent if he came and complained about not playing over your son? I got nothing. Get him some professional help and earn his way back in."
When used properly, stats are one of many data points...
baseball is statistics.............the hof would be empty without them. then who would go there? 
.
The HoF empty 20dad?
I think if you gave the people a sign you could fill up the place...
The HoF empty 20dad?
I think if you gave the people a sign you could fill up the place...
There are only 3 types of people in this world: those who can count and those who cannot.
I agree with the fact that most statistics are calculated inaccurately (especially high school). when/if collected properly though, I think they definitely have their place..
They are meaningful to compare players, but only when they've been collected using some common criteria and with a large enough sample size.
Until you have about 100 plate appearances, the difference between a .260 and .300 hitter isn't statistically significant.
In MLB, you have a common collection criteria. Two different HS scorekeepers might not apply a common criteria or even score their hitters and defense the same. This makes statistics less valuable.
There are stats that don't lie. There was a HS pitcher in AZ in 2007, Tim Alderson at Horizon High who was 12-0 with 111 K's and 4 BB's in 72 innings. You look at those numbers and you know something special is happening.
Until you have about 100 plate appearances, the difference between a .260 and .300 hitter isn't statistically significant.
In MLB, you have a common collection criteria. Two different HS scorekeepers might not apply a common criteria or even score their hitters and defense the same. This makes statistics less valuable.
There are stats that don't lie. There was a HS pitcher in AZ in 2007, Tim Alderson at Horizon High who was 12-0 with 111 K's and 4 BB's in 72 innings. You look at those numbers and you know something special is happening.
JMoff,
Just like your example, there really are statistics that can create interest. But what is below creates a lot more interest and means much more. Those stats combined with mid 90s velocity and a quality hard breaking ball seem to do wonders.
This is from the PG National in June of 2006, before Alderson even compiled those stats in high school. He was already on everyone's follow list.
Tim Alderson RHP 6-7 208
Fast Ball Velocity: 95
PG Rating: 10 Tim Alderson is a 2007 RHP from Horizon HS, residing in Phoenix, AZ, with a 6'7" 208 lb. frame. Ranked #9 among PG National Top 100 pitchers. Body - long, rangy, loose. Pitching - high 3/4 slot, very quick aggressive arm, loose, stab on backside, cranks it up, jerky delivery, distracting, high energy, strike thrower with all, Mid 90s FB hot at hitting zone, attacks with all,hard SL, quick breaker, good spin, late action, showed CU. Offense - primary pitcher, aggressive swing, has some serious power, big swing. Early draft potential, Aflac All American.
That report suggests the stats would be great. However, the very low number of walks in both his junior and senior HS year was unbelievable. He became a first round pick and hasn't slowed down a whole lot in pro ball either. This year he was promoted to AA from High A. Between those two stops he has walked only 4 while striking out 41. 21 Ks to 1 walk in AA so far with a 2-0 record and 1.89 ERA. Now the stats mean a lot!
Just like your example, there really are statistics that can create interest. But what is below creates a lot more interest and means much more. Those stats combined with mid 90s velocity and a quality hard breaking ball seem to do wonders.
This is from the PG National in June of 2006, before Alderson even compiled those stats in high school. He was already on everyone's follow list.
Tim Alderson RHP 6-7 208
Fast Ball Velocity: 95
PG Rating: 10 Tim Alderson is a 2007 RHP from Horizon HS, residing in Phoenix, AZ, with a 6'7" 208 lb. frame. Ranked #9 among PG National Top 100 pitchers. Body - long, rangy, loose. Pitching - high 3/4 slot, very quick aggressive arm, loose, stab on backside, cranks it up, jerky delivery, distracting, high energy, strike thrower with all, Mid 90s FB hot at hitting zone, attacks with all,hard SL, quick breaker, good spin, late action, showed CU. Offense - primary pitcher, aggressive swing, has some serious power, big swing. Early draft potential, Aflac All American.
That report suggests the stats would be great. However, the very low number of walks in both his junior and senior HS year was unbelievable. He became a first round pick and hasn't slowed down a whole lot in pro ball either. This year he was promoted to AA from High A. Between those two stops he has walked only 4 while striking out 41. 21 Ks to 1 walk in AA so far with a 2-0 record and 1.89 ERA. Now the stats mean a lot!
The stats are only as good as the stat keeper. I don't think most HS stat keepers are objective or knowledgeable enough, and sometimes get so caught up in the game or socializing that they miss things. Just my 2 cents.
quillgirl,
That is true.
Still there are certain stats that are more meaningful than others. Often in scouting it is more the negative stats that end up sending out red flags.
For example, if a report on a player is turned in saying the player has plus power and he shows one HR in the first month of the HS season, this can cause some doubting. Same for a pitcher with a mid 90s fastball and sharp breakingball having a low number of strikeouts. After all... Power hitters are expected to hit with power and power pitchers are expected to rack up lots of strike outs at the high school level.
Also there are certain stats that are "fairly" reliable unless you involve the worst scorekeeper ever. Home runs, strikeouts and walks are more reliable stats than many of the others. Of course, the competition level and size of ball parks can play into those stats.
Usually the top draft picks will have some good statistics. This is somewhat expected of a top draft pick. Bad statistics can be a big concern to scouts.
That is true.
Still there are certain stats that are more meaningful than others. Often in scouting it is more the negative stats that end up sending out red flags.
For example, if a report on a player is turned in saying the player has plus power and he shows one HR in the first month of the HS season, this can cause some doubting. Same for a pitcher with a mid 90s fastball and sharp breakingball having a low number of strikeouts. After all... Power hitters are expected to hit with power and power pitchers are expected to rack up lots of strike outs at the high school level.
Also there are certain stats that are "fairly" reliable unless you involve the worst scorekeeper ever. Home runs, strikeouts and walks are more reliable stats than many of the others. Of course, the competition level and size of ball parks can play into those stats.
Usually the top draft picks will have some good statistics. This is somewhat expected of a top draft pick. Bad statistics can be a big concern to scouts.
PGStaff,
Yeah I knew he was well known in a positive way, which is why I used his name.
My son is younger so I wasn't really 'active' in HS baseball when he went through. When I saw the numbers in the newspaper, it just simply stood out as well, impossible. I went online to double check the 'obvious typo'. It wasn't...
Obviously, you don't get drafted in the first round out of HS as a pitcher without being special.
I also agree with quillgirl about the validity of the stats being as good as the score keeper. PGStaff quotes the reliable stats, K's, BB's and HR's. Hard to fake those. I also think its hard to fake run average (runs allowed/innings pitched * 7). If the kid has given up 50 runs but only 10 earned, his mom/dad is the one with the score book.
I have seen (in my own son's case) where they don't upload all the information about every game to MaxPreps. He didn't get credit for K's/BB's, CG or SO when he threw a 7 inning, 1 hitter, striking out 9 and walking 1 in a 1-0 game. Add those K's to his season total of 35 in 46 innings and it becomes 44 K's in 46 innings, which is looking much better. Some days they upload everything, some days they don't. On MaxPreps, he has a 2.28 ERA with an opponents batting average of .911. They upload every hit against, but not every AB (or even half). They also didn't upload the last game of the season, when they were elliminated.
Batting average, earned runs, on base percentage and other opinion stats are even more questionable. I've had parents say, yeah he was 0-4, but he reached on three errors, so his on base percentage was .750. Sometimes they don't even know how to compute the stats being presented.
Yeah I knew he was well known in a positive way, which is why I used his name.
My son is younger so I wasn't really 'active' in HS baseball when he went through. When I saw the numbers in the newspaper, it just simply stood out as well, impossible. I went online to double check the 'obvious typo'. It wasn't...
Obviously, you don't get drafted in the first round out of HS as a pitcher without being special.
I also agree with quillgirl about the validity of the stats being as good as the score keeper. PGStaff quotes the reliable stats, K's, BB's and HR's. Hard to fake those. I also think its hard to fake run average (runs allowed/innings pitched * 7). If the kid has given up 50 runs but only 10 earned, his mom/dad is the one with the score book.
I have seen (in my own son's case) where they don't upload all the information about every game to MaxPreps. He didn't get credit for K's/BB's, CG or SO when he threw a 7 inning, 1 hitter, striking out 9 and walking 1 in a 1-0 game. Add those K's to his season total of 35 in 46 innings and it becomes 44 K's in 46 innings, which is looking much better. Some days they upload everything, some days they don't. On MaxPreps, he has a 2.28 ERA with an opponents batting average of .911. They upload every hit against, but not every AB (or even half). They also didn't upload the last game of the season, when they were elliminated.
Batting average, earned runs, on base percentage and other opinion stats are even more questionable. I've had parents say, yeah he was 0-4, but he reached on three errors, so his on base percentage was .750. Sometimes they don't even know how to compute the stats being presented.
Reminds me of the quote from W.C. Fields: "Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is important....but what they hide is vital."
PG,
Walks or lack thereof doesn't always mean a whole lot in HS ball, especially for a pitcher who can dominate with a fastball down the middle. It is not at all unusual for a pitcher to struggle with their control/command when they move up a level and they have to be finer with their pitches to keep from getting hit.
On the other side of the coin, we had a soft tosser this season who gave up relatively few walks. He also didn't give up much more than a hit per inning, mostly because he pitched backwards and average HS hitters don't handle that well. He did give up a lot of runs and lost a lot of games because he would get into hitter's counts and too often would throw a nothing fastball to avoid giving up a walk. Coach loved him because he didn't give up many walks. Go figure.
However, when a hard throwing pitcher can start moving up the ladder in pro ball and maintain the low number of walks while not getting hit real hard it is a very impressive and telling statistic.
Walks or lack thereof doesn't always mean a whole lot in HS ball, especially for a pitcher who can dominate with a fastball down the middle. It is not at all unusual for a pitcher to struggle with their control/command when they move up a level and they have to be finer with their pitches to keep from getting hit.
On the other side of the coin, we had a soft tosser this season who gave up relatively few walks. He also didn't give up much more than a hit per inning, mostly because he pitched backwards and average HS hitters don't handle that well. He did give up a lot of runs and lost a lot of games because he would get into hitter's counts and too often would throw a nothing fastball to avoid giving up a walk. Coach loved him because he didn't give up many walks. Go figure.
However, when a hard throwing pitcher can start moving up the ladder in pro ball and maintain the low number of walks while not getting hit real hard it is a very impressive and telling statistic.
quote:Originally posted by CADad:
However, when a hard throwing pitcher can start moving up the ladder in pro ball and maintain the low number of walks while not getting hit real hard it is a very impressive and telling statistic.
I can relate on that one.
I am going with PG, some stats are important, more than others as you move up.
This is a very complex subject and requires much more of a scientific approach then one finds normally used to assess predictors of performance for an individual player . Even the statistical correlations used in baseball would not be considered scientifically sufficient due to lack of data input of all possibilities.
The current usage and methods of statistical analysis used in baseball is not a reliable method to determine player future performance.
The current usage and methods of statistical analysis used in baseball is not a reliable method to determine player future performance.