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No time chart.

Even if it existed, it wouldn't account for accuracy of the throw.  Which is huge.

Ex.:  MIF receives the throw  chest-high and armstretch on the LF side of second base.  A good tagger will take about .4 secs. to get this throw into the tag zone.  The median HS runners covers 2.5 ft. per .1 sec. at a full sprint.  So in this example, it's as if the stealer had an extra 10 feet on his primary.

Last edited by game7

Pitcher under 1.2 to the plate is going to be hard to steal on

Pitcher over 1.3 to the plate can be taken advantage of

Catcher pop time of under 2.1 is going to be hard to steal on

Catcher pop time over 2.2 can be taken advantage of

So 1.2 and 2.1 added together is 3.3 which is about the average combination timing that should result in about a 50 / 50 success and fail rate.

Take your guys and have them stand next to first base and time them running through second base.  If they are 3.3 then you are in that 50 / 50 range of success and fail rate.  At this point you do the math and weigh the risks because this is all you can control.

Do they get a good jump

Was it a fastball up or low or in or out to help / hurt the catcher transition

Was it a fastball or off speed / breaking pitch

Was the throw on the money or is it off target

These things you do not control but you can also pay attention to IF / OF warm up and throw downs between innings to get an idea of the intangibles.

Stealing is as much artwork as it is figuring out the math. There are no absolutes to say yes you should steal or no you shouldn't steal.  We have stolen bases on guys who were 1.1 to the plate with a 2.0 catcher who is on the money with throws between innings.  We have also been thrown out by guys who were 1.4 to the plate and 2.4 catcher who bounced it every time between innings because he made the throw of his life. I love to run and we will run.  But we do the math and pay attention to the game and we still get guys thrown out. 

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