quote:
Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
How does a player who’s being chosen purely on “talent” show he has the tools? You know if a kid is 6’3”/200# and runs a 4.1 40, he’s gonna be labeled as having “talent”. But that doesn’t mean he can hit, let alone hit with power, have a great arm, or be able to catch a ball.
For a hitter, "talent" primarily means two things. 1) Bathead speed, because it makes balls go farther and gives the defenders less time to react. 2) Bat quickness, because it allows the hitter to see the ball for more time before it is necessary to commit to a swing. Both of these can be evaluated regardless of the outcome of a series of at bats, even if the player is striking out. The weight and stature of a player is nearly irrelevant if he has the two above talents.
Footspeed is good, of course, since it is always valuable on offense. But the main value of speed is that it opens up more positions on the field to the player. If a player runs a 7.2 60, he's probably only suited for 1st base, and he'd better have lots of batspeed and quickness. If he can run a 6.8, there's at least three times as many spots on the roster for him. The speedy player is still attractive even if he has less batspeed/quickness.
For a pitcher, talent means velocity, and to a lesser extent, fastball movement. Both of these are really hard to teach. Location and specialty pitches are easier (but not easy!) to learn.
Of course, this is painting with a broad brush, and there's no question that developed skill and desire are also primary factors. But for the folks whose business is evaluating baseball players, talent is easiest to see and project.
