Surviving economically in these times

Hang in there Goose.  I think you are right that the banks will help out this time.  We need a legit fiscal package from the political front soon too.   This event is an absolute shock to the economic system but I do think that it will be a fairly quick recovery (3q recovery) vs the impact of the financial crisis.   The financial crisis killed asset values this one is leading to small business cash crunch (and yes similar stock crunch but not homes, yet).   Gyms in CT are now told to close tomorrow so I did ask my son to work out today and I emailed the guy who runs the gym and told him that I will continue to pay the full amount through his closure to help him out.   This will be exceedingly difficult for small businesses.    Our HS baseball season gets an update Wednesday night.   Still praying for half a season and maybe a conference tourney.  Just something.....

I liquidated some assets in early February, in anticipation of a 10% correction.  If only I knew it was going to be a 30%+ collapse...

CTbballDad posted:

I liquidated some assets in early February, in anticipation of a 10% correction.  If only I knew it was going to be a 30%+ collapse...

Are you planning to jump back in? I did as well and would love to jump on some of the current stock prices. I'm terrible with this type of stuff though. That's why I handed everything over to an adviser.

TerribleBPthrower posted:

CTbballDad posted:

I liquidated some assets in early February, in anticipation of a 10% correction.  If only I knew it was going to be a 30%+ collapse...

Are you planning to jump back in? I did as well and would love to jump on some of the current stock prices. I'm terrible with this type of stuff though. That's why I handed everything over to an adviser.

Be bold when others are fearful, is really tough right now.  But I did a little nibbling at the close.  If it drops another 30%, nothing will matter, so time to put some back to work.

I’ve stayed away from investing more since I don’t want to spend my days analyzing the situation every day. But from day to day, sometimes hour to hour there’s some serious money to be made. 

By riding it out I’ve lost a lot of money. But it’s just paper. The market will come back around when this is over. Depending on how long it takes for things to normalize could affect how long it takes the market to totally recover. 

As a wall street equity guy, I am impressed with the strategy to dip toes in now and take a long term horizon view (if you have time).   This has been brutal and the best time to buy is when everyone is panicking.  If the market goes down this much tomorrow it will be due to crazy panic.   I will say again what is needed is fiscal policy to help small businesses right now.   If they come to a deal tonight we could be seeing the bottom.  If they don't more panic perhaps.  Markets hate uncertainty and what causes more uncertainty then something you can't model out or see.   Seniors, not the baseball kind, really get hurt here with rates at zero.   Just a brutal move.

Dave Ramsey tweeted today to take care of food utilities shelter and transportation first during this time and try to keep cash on hand and not to focus on paying debt if your fiscal times get tough during this time  Praying for all of us during these unprecedented times

So, even if I am currently able to make my car payment, should I call the bank and see if they will put it on hold? I hate to do that as I've never paid a bill late in my life.

TerribleBPthrower posted:

So, even if I am currently able to make my car payment, should I call the bank and see if they will put it on hold? I hate to do that as I've never paid a bill late in my life.

I'm pondering some of that. I have the money now, but run my own business and am sure that revenue will be down the next couple of months (we operate a newspaper that depends on advertising. Who needs to advertise when stuff is cancelled right and left?). I may need to draw from my savings for basic expenses in the future and I'd rather ask while I'm in good shape than when I'm desperate. Having said that, I haven't done it yet.

I may have drank the patriotic kool aid and will keep my investments in the markets during this crisis. I may not be waving the flag if I lose the last 4 years of gains. I hope the Senate adds a little more pork to the small businesses, they will not recovery even with low interest loans or tax breaks

2022NYC posted:

I may have drank the patriotic kool aid and will keep my investments in the markets during this crisis. I may not be waving the flag if I lose the last 4 years of gains. I hope the Senate adds a little more pork to the small businesses, they will not recovery even with low interest loans or tax breaks

Unless you’re invested in stocks taking the worst beatings (like airlines and hospitality) your portfolio should come around over time when the current situation ends.

If you want to play the market day to day you can attempt to play the yo-yo. Sell offs and market declines create tomorrow’s deals and increases. I just don’t want to make analyzing the market all day long my work.

A lot of vendors/creditors are going to make allowances for late (or non-) payments.  They almost have to--too many of their customers/debtors are in trouble to make normal collections policies feasible.  I have heard of utilities announcing they are temporarily waiving late fees and stopping nonpayment-related disconnects.  Other businesses may be willing to negotiate payment plans, waive fees, etc.  If cash flow is a serious concern, I'd make some calls before I send any payments.  I understand the reluctance to do that, but these are not normal times.  

I also think things will at least partly recover relatively quickly.  We may be in for a typical recession after that, but that looks pretty good at the moment.  

if you want to make a bad situation worse stop paying people...it assures that everything will crumble. When people with the means to pay the bills say screw it I am waiting, which means honest people who owe other honest people can't pay them...and the dominos fall. Again you have to be able to pay the bills, I am not referring to someone who legit doesn't have the money. 

Dave Ramsey is a hyper active ZERO debt, buy real estate in cash not a mortgage, have massive reserves and live just above the poverty line advocate to pay off all your debt before you do anything remotely close to wasteful. He is highly religious, extremely fiscal conservative and when he says don't focus on paying your debt right now, he means the extra mortgage $'s he expect you to pay every month, the extra credit card to reduce your balance and so on. He is not advocating freezing the monetary system. 

old_school, in case I wasn’t clear:  I’m not advocating that anyone take advantage of this situation. One person’s spending is another’s income, and there is little enough economic activity right now. Beyond that, I believe there is a moral obligation to pay one’s debts. My response was aimed at those who *can’t* pay right now (and sadly, there are going to be all too many people in that position through no fault of their own). 

Here's my specific challenge — I run an online newspaper that depends on advertisers for most of our income. We just shut down bars and restaurants, which are regular advertisers. I don't feel ethical asking people to advertise businesses that can't even be open right now, and even if I did, I think it's unlikely they would commit to spending the money and even if they did that, it's unlikely they could afford to pay the bill. So I'm trying to figure out how to support fellow small businesses, keep them alive through this crisis, while continuing to pay my bills.

If the next fish up the food chain can cut me a break, then I can pass it on. If all of us do that, more of us will survive this.

Now I'm going to call and order take out lunch — helping to keep another local business alive for one more day.

I typically walk or bike to a Dunkin in the afternoon. They shut down inside seating two days ago. The last two days I’ve gone to Panera. I figured since they’re more of a restaurant than a coffee shop there would be inside dining. 

Yesterday, there were two other customers. Both were field news reporters told not to come to the office unless necessary. They were seated at the other end of the restaurant. 

I spoke with the manager. She told me she’s paying two hourly people and not even recouping their pay in revenue. Panera’s are franchised, small businesses. 

Today I’m the only customer. I wouldn’t be here if I couldn’t keep my distance from people.

I don’t know how long small businesses and contractors can hold up. I called my clients the last two days to tell them they don’t have to pay until further notice. Then the balance due will be factored in over time. If my clients don’t pay I don’t get paid. Fortunately it’s not an issue for me. 

A younger person has the opportunity to rebuild. What if a retiree gets wiped out? Or someone who had their life planned for years to retire later this year?

I understand these times and anxiety.  My son owns a landscaping business.  I had to remind him the other day that some will not be able to pay but if he could afford to continue to take care of them it would pay off in the long run.  Paying it forward during this time is vital.

My salary will only continue as long as people are financially able to continue to give.  I have trusted for years and will continue that my family will be taken care of.

I think there has been some great advice on here about being honest with creditors and with those that owe you. 

Treasury allows interest and penalty free deferment of taxes due (up to 1 mil + must be non-corporate filer) on April 15 until July 15.

https://twitter.com/vmsalama/s...359759343169537?s=09

The IRS deferment also applies to estimated taxes owed.

A welcome step in a liquidity crisis.

For W-2 taxpayers, consider changing your exemptions to maximize your incoming cash (i.e., taking down the Fed withholding to zero).

Iowa mom. Hang tough.

I assume regardless of advertisers, you still publish. Maybe a couple of "public service" ads suggesting that people support - to the extent possible - your hard hit advertisers. I know - as a former small biz owner -  I would feel a huge amount of gratitude to my advertising vehicle for this. Eventually, I would turn that gratitude into business.

(I guess just for space fillers - not to increase the cost of what you're already incurring to publish.)

Goosegg posted:

Iowa mom. Hang tough.

I assume regardless of advertisers, you still publish. Maybe a couple of "public service" ads suggesting that people support - to the extent possible - your hard hit advertisers. I know - as a former small biz owner -  I would feel a huge amount of gratitude to my advertising vehicle for this. Eventually, I would turn that gratitude into business.

(I guess just for space fillers - not to increase the cost of what you're already incurring to publish.)

I like the public service ads idea. I'll get that rolling. Fortunately I work with a lot of vendors who can roll that out for me easily.

We actually are publishing more than ever right now — stories on our restaurants that are doing delivery only, how to get your kid fed while school is closed, how to get to funerals that are now being held on Facebook Live with restricted in person attendance.  We want to be the resource for the community, which is tough for a two-person operation. Thanks for the encouragement.