https://twitter.com/KendallRog.../1319387348975685633
Okay, in shock. My 2021 is set (or is he?) to play JUCO ball starting next fall. Could it really be possible that he'll be a freshman alongside other freshman who graduated in from high school 2019 and 2020?
Can we assume the NCAA will follow suit? Please tell me I have this all wrong.
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Welcome to the club. All the 2020 kids are freshman next to the 2019s.. At the scrimmage last week it was, “oh he’s a freshman, but really a sophomore.” Or “he’s a RS freshman but actually a junior...he’s draft eligible this year”. It’s all a mess, no matter where you go. Sorry to hear it.
I don't see this as a big deal in reality but I know it is not my kid. Very few juco players will stay for a third year and not possible to stay for a fourth year. They will have too many hours and in most cases if they are not good enough to move on they are not good enough to help the team they are on. I think there will be a couple of guys who will stay for a third year but only 1 or 2 per team. And none who will be there for a fourth year.
@PitchingFan posted:I don't see this as a big deal in reality but I know it is not my kid. Very few juco players will stay for a third year and not possible to stay for a fourth year. They will have too many hours and in most cases if they are not good enough to move on they are not good enough to help the team they are on. I think there will be a couple of guys who will stay for a third year but only 1 or 2 per team. And none who will be there for a fourth year.
Sent you a pm
@PitchingFan posted:I don't see this as a big deal in reality but I know it is not my kid. Very few juco players will stay for a third year and not possible to stay for a fourth year. They will have too many hours and in most cases if they are not good enough to move on they are not good enough to help the team they are on. I think there will be a couple of guys who will stay for a third year but only 1 or 2 per team. And none who will be there for a fourth year.
My kid's Juco has 13 third year guys and they were one of the top teams in the country last year. I think you are underestimating the logjam.
@d-mac posted:My kid's Juco has 13 third year guys and they were one of the top teams in the country last year. I think you are underestimating the logjam.
Local JUCO had EVERY kid come back (including 2018 hs grads) plus added 3 P5 dropdowns and 1 HS kid who will be drafted. INSANE. I have no idea what classes these kids are taking. Lefty takes lessons from their hitting coach. He said the head coach gets multiple calls each day with kids looking for a place to play...he doesn't even call them back anymore.
I fear most everyone is underestimating the logjam. Some think the older current JUCO players will simply take off to a 4-year. They sure can, IF there is a place for them to go. Is there any reason to believe the NCAA isn’t going to follow suit? None that I’ve heard.
In terms of kids simply hanging up their cleats and moving on, I’m hyper skeptical. After this spring, a buddy who played NAIA ball said the same thing. He guessed maybe 10% of seniors would return. He and many others were way wrong. The general consensus seems to be that it was more like 60-70%. Me, I think this generation is A) almost nothing like their parents (who are the ones speculating right now they’ll just move on with their lives), B) in absolutely no hurry to jump into real life (especially in a Covid era job market) and C) filled with delusions they will play professionally. Does that represent each and every kid? No, but the vast majority? Far too many? I sure think so.
So I believe this will increase reclassifications in high school, gap years being taken and countless guys looking to “hide out” and ride the storm out until things get back to “normal” and they can go get all the things they’ve wanted. If it’s possible to hide out at your JUCO and wait another year for your D1 or D2 opp, they’ll do it. Even if they don’t get any scholarship monies. Out of pocket expenses to stay in JUCO another year could look awfully attractive when compared to settling for a 4-year opp you don’t like and/or where you’ll largely ride the bench for a year. But at a way more expensive price tag. Spend a lot more money and sit or spend way less as a super JUCO-experienced veteran playing JUCO ball and taking a few throwaway classes? Maybe it’s a Midwest thing, but I’m not sure I know many current players that understand money well at all. If they’re not paying for it now, it may as well not exist in their eyes. They’ll naively leverage themselves to the eyeballs to get their shot at their dream. I think most who will hang up their cleats and move on will be due to parents that drew the hard line for them and forced them into “retirement.” Good luck expecting the rest to have the wisdom of adults. Those are the not the kids I see, but I’m sure a few exist.
Danj, exactly.
I agree DanJ. And, don't forget, as long as the MLB draft is only 5-10 rounds rosters are getting squeezed from the output end as well. I'm worried about my 2022.
I think we will see both an increased number of kids doing gap years as well as an increased amount of kids simply dropping out of Baseball entirely or choosing to play Club Ball at a 4 year school.
This type of logjam will be a differentiator between the kids who truly love Baseball and those who don’t. The ultra elite potential Top 3 Round Draft pick kid will be less effected, other than having a larger group of kids on the roster to become friends with or to shag their BP.
DanJ's post brings up a related question...
Here in Calif., as example, there are specific related class transfer issues/guidelines/requirements tied to declaration of major when staying at a Calif. JC a third year and then transferring to a Calif. state U. Aside from the fact that not all classes may transfer anyway, does anyone know if there are similar challenges when transferring from a JC from one state to a 4-yr school in another after a third year at the JC?
Besides all of the valid log-jam and transfer concerns. I’m still trying to understand what problem this ruling even attempts to solve. I understand it for fall sports, but did I miss some announcement that the spring season is canceled?
@cabbagedad posted:DanJ's post brings up a related question...
Here in Calif., as example, there are specific related class transfer issues/guidelines/requirements tied to declaration of major when staying at a Calif. JC a third year and then transferring to a Calif. state U. Aside from the fact that not all classes may transfer anyway, does anyone know if there are similar challenges when transferring from a JC from one state to a 4-yr school in another after a third year at the JC?
I heard some time back that a player that spent 3 yrs at a JuCo was not eligible to play at any D1 school as a transfer. Maybe the NJCAA made this latest (stupid) ruling thinking it would facilitate transfers after a player spent more than 2 years at a JuCo. IMO it just adds to already bad logjam and I don’t think some people realize how hard it’s going to be for lots of 2021s, 2022s, 2023s to find a place to play. Forget dream schools (unless you have LEGIT interest from MLB scouts) and focus on something that might be possible.
