The D1 Talent Who Went D2

@adbono posted:

That’s true. But it’s amazing how many of the 99% think they are in the 1%.

When a kid is a Junior in HS, they don't necessarily know if they are the 99% or 1%.  I know some kids who I could see if a few things went right, that they'd make it to the next level, but I'd still put the odds (in my brain, so take this with a grain of salt) as low.  Also, there are some kids who are in it for the baseball more than the academics.  They may end up getting a degree out of it, but that is secondary to them.  When I ask one kid how his academics are going, he simply replies that he is in it for the baseball.  

@Viking0 posted:

When a kid is a Junior in HS, they don't necessarily know if they are the 99% or 1%.  I know some kids who I could see if a few things went right, that they'd make it to the next level, but I'd still put the odds (in my brain, so take this with a grain of salt) as low.  Also, there are some kids who are in it for the baseball more than the academics.  They may end up getting a degree out of it, but that is secondary to them.  When I ask one kid how his academics are going, he simply replies that he is in it for the baseball.  

There are always some outliers and some late bloomers - especially with pitchers. But by junior year of HS MLB scouts have identified the overwhelming majority of draft prospects in that class. So the kids (and parents) may not know but the scouts do. There is always a chance for a kid to develop in college and become a legit prospect even if he wasn’t one in HS. But the odds of making a living in pro baseball are getting longer every day. Fewer scouts, fewer minor league teams, more coaches with no playing experience, etc. The kids that you reference that are in it for the baseball better have a good back up plan.

@adbono posted:

What constitutes a really good D1 offer? I would submit that most people don’t know the answer to that. It differs for each player to some degree but there are some constants that hold true across the board. It’s a good offer if : the right degree plan is offered, the HC is a good man and has hired like minded assistants, the coaches care about their players and treat them fairly, the coaches teach and develop the talent they recruit, the facilities are good, there is a realistic chance to get playing time, it’s a winning program, the social climate is a fit, there is a fan base that cares about baseball, and you wouldn’t want to leave if baseball didn’t work out. Good luck finding all that at most D1s - especially the P5s. But most people would think any offer from a D1 is a good offer. It isn’t. Most P5 offers are walk on or small money insurance policies. Same is true at most other top 50 D1 programs. The HCs at these schools are making a lot of money and are expected to win. They are running a business and their decisions are cold and hard. Most kids (and parents) aren’t ready for this. They have no idea what they are getting into until they are in it. Then they find out that the coaches at their big name school aren’t really that good. They don’t want to teach and develop players. They want to recruit and manage a roster. As a result many kids leave these programs for a more comfortable existence. They recognize they would rather enjoy their time playing college baseball at a less prestigious school than be miserable sitting on the bench on a team coached by someone that doesn’t care about them. IMO, if a HS kid really does have D1 talent (and most that are told they do actually don’t) the place to look is a good mid-major. There is a much better chance of finding most of the things I listed above that constitute a good offer. This has certainly held true for the kids I know that are still playing.

Agree with this.  Extremely tough to find a situation that "checks all the boxes".  So, it is left to the recruit and his family to figure out which "checked boxes" are most important.   There will be tradeoffs.   Too many times, I've known recruits to compromise and not stick to their original college recruiting plan.   It takes a lot of self-discipline when coaches are "pitching" all the wonderful things about the college and their program, and you are left trying to figure it out.   This is both at D1 and D2 because of those rare scholarships dollars.   Know yourself and know what you want to get out of those 3 years (draft?) or 4 years (draft or a career in something else).   

My son looked at college baseball programs as a commodity and viewed their academics as the differentiator...which I know is different.   But, it was his way of hedging for his future, and dealing with whatever may happen with coaching staffs, playing time, and all the things adbono mentioned above.     At the end of the day, you have to separate what you know in your head/heart/gut versus the exaggeration and hyperbole that is constantly being pitched by the recruiting coaches.   Trust yourself, because you can be 100% sure of what you think and know, when you stick to that original goal.

JMO.

@adbono posted:

Isn’t that the truth?!? I don’t know why people tend to exaggerate the truth. All it does is make them look foolish. Fairly often guys tell me they played college baseball at one place or another. I usually fact check and over 50% of the time it doesn’t check out.

We got a guy like that in town. Claims to have played for a P5 school in the south. For years he has been saying it. Guess he's never heard of Google? He did play college ball. He was a backup at a D2 in the same state as the alleged P5. Spent the whole time there and barely played. I suspect he was the bullpen catcher. But, he paints like he was a starter at a SEC powerhouse.

@adbono and @Francis7, a guy tried that with my husband and basketball. Only the guy picked the team (Tennessee) and the time my husband's older brother was there and playing. Turned into a hilarious and furious backpedaling when my husband called his brother so he could "catch up" with his old teammate!! LOL

I just looked at Tampa’s (D2) roster. They’re currently #1. 25 of 37 on the roster played elsewhere before Tampa. One thing for a high school recruit to be cautious of with a ranked D2 is how many D1 transfers are coming in.

@PTWood posted:

@adbono and @Francis7, a guy tried that with my husband and basketball. Only the guy picked the team (Tennessee) and the time my husband's older brother was there and playing. Turned into a hilarious and furious backpedaling when my husband called his brother so he could "catch up" with his old teammate!! LOL

That’s pretty funny!

@adbono posted:

There are always some outliers and some late bloomers - especially with pitchers. But by junior year of HS MLB scouts have identified the overwhelming majority of draft prospects in that class. So the kids (and parents) may not know but the scouts do. There is always a chance for a kid to develop in college and become a legit prospect even if he wasn’t one in HS. But the odds of making a living in pro baseball are getting longer every day. Fewer scouts, fewer minor league teams, more coaches with no playing experience, etc. The kids that you reference that are in it for the baseball better have a good back up plan.

And more Caribbean players with an all or nothing attitude due to lack of alternatives. We hear about the big signing bonuses. A lot more are signed on the cheap.

@RJM posted:

I just looked at Tampa’s (D2) roster. They’re currently #1. 25 of 37 on the roster played elsewhere before Tampa. One thing for a high school recruit to be cautious of with a ranked D2 is how many D1 transfers are coming in.

Exact same situation at Colorado Mesa - another perennial D2 power program

@PTWood posted:

@adbono and @Francis7, a guy tried that with my husband and basketball. Only the guy picked the team (Tennessee) and the time my husband's older brother was there and playing. Turned into a hilarious and furious backpedaling when my husband called his brother so he could "catch up" with his old teammate!! LOL

With the information on the internet, I don't know why people try this scam. We have another guy whose claim is "Once attended a tryout for the Expos." I give him credit for being honest there. So many others would claim they played for them.

@RJM posted:

I’ve seen kids chose NESCAC’s (D3) over middle of the road academic D1’s as they understood they weren’t pro prospects. They were better prospects to become HA grad school students after playing NESCAC ball.

Exactly.  And many D1 programs don’t want players to take the “tough classes”, which puts them further behind in terms of post college opportunities.

The determined student athlete can figure it out and make it work, as obviously there are plenty of D1 players, such as your son, who go on to great careers after Baseball.

I can point out several dozen players in the last 5-10 years from our area, though, who went D1, took the easy classes, either never played or went D1->JUCO->D1 and barely played, racked up $30,000-$50,000 in student loan debt and have very few employment opportunities at this time.

In terms of “pro prospects”.  I know that a lot of kids bet on themselves as being late bloomers and go JUCO.  Nothing wrong with that.  And some kids are not academically inclined.  Also nothing wrong with that.

What I tell kids though is: if you go D3 and hit .400+ or lead the conference in HR’s, or get on a D3 All American list, somebody somewhere is gonna have a spot for you in a good summer league and a pro scout will see you.

In the meantime, get a great education, and have fun actually playing Baseball instead of watching Baseball from the dugout.