The D1 Trap

@RJM posted:

A lot of those kids sitting are freshmen who will leave at the end of the year or sophs who should have left last year. I only remember one position player who remained with the team as a bench player for four years. One other player was told he was no longer needed after junior year. He started freshman year and spiraled backwards. I didn’t keep as close track of pitchers. But plenty left.

So how would that work with 35 man roster? All those freshmen and sophomores should’ve went D2? That’s the talking point when people say “D1 Trap or Reaching” Are the bench players on all 300 plus D1’s reaching because they aren’t getting 20 innings or 20 AB’s, and if so who is going to fill their spots? A lot of this is in my opinion because there is “showcase” kids, a lot of them. They show out at a showcase, good BP hitter, high velo kid, but when it comes to nut cutting time, they fold like a lawn chair. Maybe rosters should be cut to like 25. That’s about all they travel with anyways.

Each year a certain number of seniors won’t return due to the draft. There might be some who bail senior year as the writing is on the wall. A bunch of freshmen and sophomores will leave due to bad fit. 

Next class up! The beat goes on. It’s a tough business for players.

The key is don’t reach. Make a sound decision. If a player gets one offer from a ranked team and several from mid majors it’s more likely the ranked team is wrong than several mid majors. The same theory applies all the way down the pipeline to D3.

At the top every kid believes they’re going to get playing time for the ranked team. Half will be wrong. But that’s where you go for it. Then, what starts to divide players is mental toughness. Some aren’t aware they never had it. They never needed it before. For the first time in their life they’re competing to play. 

I’ve also seen players fail, come back in another program and still be a top twenty round draft pick. 

I once heard a story of a D1 junior who was playing and who quit. As the story went, he questioned the sacrifice that was required. He knew he wasn't going pro, or, if he did, that he was only going to be there in the minors for the real prospects to have games to play in. And, since there was no future, he decided to take back the time baseball required and use it for other things in the final days of his college experience.

I've been told in the past that there's three parts of going to college - academic, social and athletic. But, there's only enough time for two. So, one of them has to be sacrificed and it can't be academics.

I have to imagine that a lot of kids think about which two make the most sense for them by the time they are a junior.

@Francis7, the counterargument to that is for many, the athletic part of their college experience is also the social part of their college experience. The team is where their lifelong friends come from, it is their support network and it becomes the structure that helps with their long term success. So whether they go on to play or not, they enjoy being part of a team and part of something bigger than themselves. I think that is why culture is so important. If a coach and his student-leaders can create a culture where every team member is valued and feels important, then more players stay even if they are getting less playing time than they originally envisioned or if its harder than they imagined (Of course, winning also helps with that because it's just fun to be part of a winning team). 

You also have to remember with Covid, the social side does not exist this year.    At my sons school they basically can hang out with their room mate and that is it.  Grades are good and he basically lives in the weight room.   So you comment is correct.  

100% agree.   Baseball has always been the social.  If the argument is that you aren't going pro, why ever play?  The vast majority will never go pro.  You love the game or you don't.

@RJM posted:

Each year a certain number of seniors won’t return due to the draft. There might be some who bail senior year as the writing is on the wall. A bunch of freshmen and sophomores will leave due to bad fit. 

Next class up! The beat goes on. It’s a tough business for players.

The key is don’t reach. Make a sound decision. If a player gets one offer from a ranked team and several from mid majors it’s more likely the ranked team is wrong than several mid majors. The same theory applies all the way down the pipeline to D3.

At the top every kid believes they’re going to get playing time for the ranked team. Half will be wrong. But that’s where you go for it. Then, what starts to divide players is mental toughness. Some aren’t aware they never had it. They never needed it before. For the first time in their life they’re competing to play. 

I’ve also seen players fail, come back in another program and still be a top twenty round draft pick. 

Bingo, and Yahtzee!  Especially like "Half will be wrong.  But that's where you go for it".

Only 50% of second round draft picks make it to the majors. This year's second round signing bonuses topped out at $3,000,000. If MLB teams still only get it right half the time after the first 30 with that much money on the line and all of the resources they have at their disposal, imagine how hard it is for college coaches after the first 30. Or for a HS kid to be 100% sure whether he is lower D1 or D2.

Sometimes it's really hard to know how a player is going to respond to the increase in pressure, freedom, work, competition, athleticism, time-commitment, etc. that comes with making the jump from one level to the next. Small field to big field. Youth to JV. JV to Varsity. Varsity to college (at any level). College to minors. Minors to Majors.  It's not always a trap. It's just hard.

At the risk of repeating so much other good advice...we all have to pay attention to the signs around us, be honest with ourselves, pray for healthy bodies, continue to work hard and take a leap. 

@TXsportsdad posted:

You also have to remember with Covid, the social side does not exist this year.    At my sons school they basically can hang out with their room mate and that is it.  Grades are good and he basically lives in the weight room.   So you comment is correct.  

I guess my son's school is a bit unique.   You can go to different floors in your dorm or different dorms if you want but can't have more than 6 people in a room at any time. Outdoors the limit is strangely just no more than groups of 10 with the state law being I think 50.  Masks always.  They are allowed off campus too.   

As a Freshman its important for him to meet other students and of course his freshman teammates.  His roommate is a teammate, another is on his floor and two more are two floors down.  They gather to throw and hit together as well, staying in compliance with covid rules.  I will alert this board if/when covid breaks out on campus because it seems like it should but hopefully not with my son.  He gets back his 4th covid test later today and better be negative!

Trap or opportunity? Faith or no faith?  Self motivated or lazy?   Ultimate goal?  Results vary greatly.

its a big step to go from HS to D1 baseball so the first year or so can be rough,  a lot like  minor league baseball or your 1st job.   At some point if the kid wants to play MLB he's going to have to beat out the kids playing at the D1 level anyway,  unless he throws 95 then it doesn't really matter where he goes to school.

If a D1 is an option as a walkon one can always try it out for a year or two and then transfer to a JC if its not working out.  If he plays good at a JC he'll get another chance at D1 or D2/D3.  You don't have to commit to the D1 for a lifetime but if you go D2/D3 its pretty hard to swim back to D1. My son started at a D1 then went to a JC and then back to another D1.  Ironically the D1 he went to only won 3 conference games but he liked the coach and it was a really good league.  He really enjoyed  playing at the school.  My point, choosing a losing D1 program isn't a deal breaker for a good college experience. 

Sidenote, your kids development has more to do with his self-motivation then any coach's technical advice, especially if he already throws 95.