If you can throw 95 mph, the odds increase somewhat.
TPM posted:2017LHPscrewball posted:What are the chances to make any decent sort of living playing baseball (not coaching baseball after a few years in the minors)? For ease of discussion, how about total professional baseball compensation of $200k or more with no regard to how many years you play. Upfront bonus money counts towards the $200k threshold. No idea of the exact numbers, but now were getting into some really long odds.
I am not understanding your point.
I was trying to put the MLB dream into two camps - the first camp is getting to play professional baseball (i.e. get drafted, sign MiLB contract and go to work playing ball). The second camp is making professional baseball a career of sorts and threw out $200k at a lifetime threshold for earnings. Anybody getting $200k+ in bonus money would immediately meet this threshold, but for the kid signing for $50k or $5k, and then maybe failing to move up rapidly, the prospects of reaching that threshold are poor. I think when someone says they want to play professional baseball, what they really want is to play actual MLB ball (of which a few months will get you to the $200K threshold). Not many kids really dream of 8 hour bus rides and having to scrounge up dinner at a convenience store. My wild guess is that maybe only 10% of drafted players ever reach the $200k threshold (which I tried to keep pretty low and therefore somewhat achievable).
When I joined this site it was my understanding there would be no math!
When my son was 7 or 8 he asked me if I thought he could be a pro baseball player. I told him that was a great long range goal to have but he had some short term goals he probably need to reach first. Like making the all-star team, then middle school, high school and college teams. Told him that if he could achieve those goals and perform at a high level, one day he would be able to answer that question himself. Never thought about doing a statistical analysis. I am grateful that I did not discover this site until my son’s sophomore year in HS. Some of the posts I read would have me questioning everything he did.
Making it to the top 10% in anything is difficult. Even harder to get to the top 1%! Everyone has different odds of making it to the top. Justin Upton had much better odds than most others on his high school team.
My wife and I were talking about this the other day. This is not a situation that lends itself well to raw stats. When we were playing youth ball, you could see my son was good, but could you ever really figure the odds of him playing ball beyond high school? Some may recall, even, one of his coaches making a wager with someone that my kid would never play varsity high school ball (yeah, he was a di*&
. When he was 10 or 12 or so, we could only hope he might play college ball and the hope for D1 was possibly a pipedream. It would have been useless to figure the odds based on raw data concerning the number of high school players who continue to the next level. Similarly, it's hard to believe that just a year or two later, if you tried to figure the odds, I'd have to believe that, discounting unforeseen circumstances, we can now figure that it is far more likely than not that he plays D1 baseball. Again, even as a sophomore, those raw numbers have no applicability.
Root I felt the same as you my sons sophomore year and as he went to different events he realized where he fit and what he needed to do to reach his goal. When he was at east coast pro his only text to me was "There is some freaky talent here!". He realized he wasn't one of the freaks, got home sunday and quit football monday and started working on getting better. Now he is a freshman in college with freaky talent already there, freaky talent came in with him and freaky talent coming in next year. Hes a step closer to getting his answer.
I certainly would not want any parent to provide a statistical analysis to their 10 yo on the odds of going pro - dream big and work hard. I was just adding what I though was some clarification to the odds of playing MLB. The phrase "one in a million" is probably not too far off for a 10 yo kid living in the lower 48 states making it to the MLB. That ought to give added incentive over something more mundane like "1 in 439,500". When he makes the freshman team you can tell him he just doubled his odds. Moves on the college, just doubled them again.
2017LHPscrewball posted:TPM posted:2017LHPscrewball posted:What are the chances to make any decent sort of living playing baseball (not coaching baseball after a few years in the minors)? For ease of discussion, how about total professional baseball compensation of $200k or more with no regard to how many years you play. Upfront bonus money counts towards the $200k threshold. No idea of the exact numbers, but now were getting into some really long odds.
I am not understanding your point.
I was trying to put the MLB dream into two camps - the first camp is getting to play professional baseball (i.e. get drafted, sign MiLB contract and go to work playing ball). The second camp is making professional baseball a career of sorts and threw out $200k at a lifetime threshold for earnings. Anybody getting $200k+ in bonus money would immediately meet this threshold, but for the kid signing for $50k or $5k, and then maybe failing to move up rapidly, the prospects of reaching that threshold are poor. I think when someone says they want to play professional baseball, what they really want is to play actual MLB ball (of which a few months will get you to the $200K threshold). Not many kids really dream of 8 hour bus rides and having to scrounge up dinner at a convenience store. My wild guess is that maybe only 10% of drafted players ever reach the $200k threshold (which I tried to keep pretty low and therefore somewhat achievable).
Several years ago I watched an interview with the (then) D'backs GM. He called aspiring to be a MLB player a poor career choice given the odds. He said 2% of minor leaguers see a day in the majors. 1% hang around long enough to call it a career.
240 kids played in our 7/8 machine pitch CR league. Six of them ultimately played varsity baseball. Three went on to college baseball. 2+% played high school ball. 1+% played college ball. How many of the dads thought their kids would ultimately play high school ball? I'm guessing the number was well over 50%.
I've read, as a general rule of thumb, at least 50% of kids who played baseball on the small diamond will never play on the big diamond.
I'd say your qualifier is very accurate- "at least" I'd estimate 75% will never play on a HS diamond. Just my experience in our area.
I'm a bit lost with this topic: what are we trying to learn?
RJM posted:240 kids played in our 7/8 machine pitch CR league. Six of them ultimately played varsity baseball. Three went on to college baseball. 2+% played high school ball. 1+% played college ball. How many of the dads thought their kids would ultimately play high school ball? I'm guessing the number was well over 50%.
Our county is similar. We live in a rural area with a population of ~24,000. Roughly 500 or so sign up for LL in the spring. There's usually 6-8 teams at the coach pitch level so about 90-100 kids. Maybe half a dozen will actually play at the varsity level (only one HS in the county). That's about how many who played LL at some point made the varsity squad when my son played. From the varsity squad three went onto play at the college level and one went pro (MiLB). Out of the 28 or so on my son's college team (D2) only one went on to play professional (MiLB).
Interesting note - all the kids on my son's travel team did make their respective HS varsity squads (the team consisted of kids from out of the county as well as those in the county). During my son's junior year 75% of the starting lineup consisted of those who had played travel ball.
I'd venture that better than 50% of the parents can see their son's playing HS ball or better. Reality usually sets in when they fail to make the JV squad. That's when the funnel really narrows.
FoxDad posted:I'd venture that better than 50% of the parents can see their son's playing HS ball or better. Reality usually sets in when they fail to make the JV squad. That's when the funnel really narrows.
It still depends on the available talent. I was just talking with someone who's son didn't make his HS JV team. The kid plays for one of the most recognizable travel ball teams in GA, and he gets significant playing time. According to the dad all but 1 senior is committed to play in college, and more than half of the juniors. The kid said he's going to try again next year when he is even stronger and faster...I like that kid, but I don't think it says anything about his skill that he didn't make the JV team at his particular HS.
joemktg posted:I'm a bit lost with this topic: what are we trying to learn?
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