The one in a million... wait, what's that... its not really one in a million?

There is nothing wrong with high goals. Just realize the chances and be prepared if you cannot meet them. It may be through no fault of your own, that you do not make it. 

You go over the chances, but how many players had the goal to play at college or the MLB and never made it. I do not think that anybody is saying that you should not try or have that as a goal. You should just be aware of your chances. 

It just means you have to work harder than most not only at athletics but also academics. And that really is the hard part. Doing both, without either suffering. 

2020 Dad,  

Thank you could have rounded to 667 for crying out loud!  now you've jinxed all of us!  LOL.

But thank you for doing the rough math.  I've often had the same line of thinking but never broke down the numbers.  Very interesting.   I found a short article on a website on this same topic-  I thought it was pretty good- and aligns with your math:

The Odds Of Playing Professional Baseball

1 of every 100 high school baseball players will go on to play affiliated professional baseball. That means if you are a high school baseball player, you have a 1% chance of playing affiliated professional baseball (which is for one of the Major League Organizations).

This isn't the odds of playing in the Big Leauges, it is for getting to any level of professional baseball. That means playing in the Big Leagues is significantly less than 1%. You can look at this a few ways.

You can assume that out of 5 teams with 20 high school baseball players on each, one player from one of the teams will play professional baseball. So this would probably be like one player out of all your local high schools will go pro. Obviously some areas are filled with more talent and bring more scouts, therefore there may be more of a chance in your area. Other areas may not be so lucky and may be overlooked.

Another way to look at it is to not worry about these numbers. If you think it is impossible, it will be impossible. If you focus on playing hard and getting better everyday, then you have a much better chance of playing professional baseball.

2020dad, you've hit upon a good point. The odds change with each new piece of data. At birth, the odds are very low (2 million boys; 1,000 professional contracts; thus, each kid has 1/20th of 1% chance of signing a professional contract). Get to high school baseball and maybe 100,000 boys in each grade are playing -- thus the odds are now 1% (as indicated above in PaBaseballDad's post).

And depending on where you are, the odds may be much higher -- at 2019Son's school, over the 2015 and 2016 classes (16 baseball players), 9 went or are going D1, at least 2 to D3 . . . so the odds of playing college baseball are over 50%. And with 4 pros (and a 5th who will be drafted out of college this year) over the last 5 years . . . the odds of signing a pro contract might be 10%. On his travel team, about 20% go pro, either directly from high school or after college, so the odds are higher still.

Ultimately none of that matters to a specific individual -- how far he goes will depend on talent and drive -- but seeing others reach lofty heights does make it easier to believe that you can do it, too.

BishopLeftiesDad posted:

There is nothing wrong with high goals. Just realize the chances and be prepared if you cannot meet them. It may be through no fault of your own, that you do not make it. 

You go over the chances, but how many players had the goal to play at college or the MLB and never made it. I do not think that anybody is saying that you should not try or have that as a goal. You should just be aware of your chances. 

It just means you have to work harder than most not only at athletics but also academics. And that really is the hard part. Doing both, without either suffering. 

Mlb?  Lots.  College?  Very few.  Now there will be lots of disagreement on this.  But it depends on how you define things.  If you don't put in a tremendous work effort I think it disqualifies you instantly.  How many realky work that hard and can't play any level of college ball?  

2020dad posted:

Resurrecting that low velocity college pitchers thread rekindled in me this misperception that achieving certain goals athletically is somehow nearly unattainable.   Every year there are roughly 2million males born in this country.  Every year about 3000 males go to division 1 baseball.  Thats 1 in every 666 (sorry for the number but I don't control the math!)  About 1000 sign milb contracts.  Thats 1 in 2000.  Combine the D1 and hs seniors who sign together and you are now about 1 in 600.  I just subbed for a gym class yesterday.  Wow.  It really is a small percentage of the overall population who are at all athletic.  Lets say 20% - not scientific just a guess.  So now that 2million really becomes 400000.  We are already pushing 1 in 100.  Then we can break these numbers down further and further....  fact of the matter is its much more of a dream for a kid to want to be an author or a congressman.   Would you discourage those dreams?  With a heck of a lot of hard work the baseball dream still may not happen.  But the odds are not nearly as long as some want you to think.

You are forgetting foreign players.  That's probably around 30% in the MLB and 50% in the MiLB. Not sure on the DI percentage, probably not significant.  

I read somewhere that D1 foreign players were less than 5%.

http://www.hsbaseballweb.com/probability.htm

These are the benchmark numbers I've always gone back to.   In my personal observations over the years, it is fantastically difficult to see talented college players not get drafted, drafted players languish in the minors waiting for their opportunity, and satisfying to see someone I know (finally) get on an MLB roster.   It takes unbelievable talent, timing, dedication and luck.

But the same can be said for any profession, it takes hard work, dedication and a whole lot of luck.  Having an education, family business, or other plans to fall back on is never a bad thing.  JMO.

I hate to say it but we can't discount the foreign factor in this equation.  Maybe 20% of American boys can be considered athletic but I don't think the DR guys are chilling out playing X-box 3 hours a day.

The players specialized position may be a huge factor as well.  If you were a catcher or a 3rd basemen in the Atlanta Braves pool during the Chipper/McCann era you were out of luck!

I  don't worry too much about mlb odds.  By that point you DO have lots of guys who are very very serious about their goals in the minors who never make it to the mlb.  Thats why I focus more on the college level.  As 2019 pointed out very accurately the more pieces you put in place the better your odds.  I believe our entire 2015 class found some college to play at.  Our 2016 class is well on its way.  So the way I look at it is if he can just continue to be good enough to make the team one more year, one more year etc. His odds will be good.  By classes I mean travel organization of course.  Don't know of many high schools that can literally place everyone!  Oh and caco, I was being nice saying 20%!  I am shocked how bad america has become athletically.  Maybe I have just been around way too many great athletes and I have a skewed opinion.  Maybe also why when I say good or great I get the feeling  my standard for that is much higher than some others.  I have heard before any varsity high school player is at least good.  see now I just can't agree with that. In fact on the average high school team I only see a few good players. It all comes down to how you define good.  It's really important to look at who is ahead of you and try to get to that level. But I think sometimes it's equally important to look at how many are behind you and realize that you can do it, that you're in a good position. confidence is everything.

My son had already committed to his college before I had ever heard of the hsbbweb.  My main reason for joining the hsbbweb was to in fact try and figure out what his odds were and to do whatever it was in my power to help him achieve his goals.  I found there was nothing in my power other than supporting him  

I have seen conference players of the year and college All-Americans go undrafted.  It takes more than stats and awards.  You have to have some scout willing to go to bat for you.  I've seen simple things like lack of hustle and attitude causing kids to go undrafted.  The main thing I learned is until you hear your name called on draft day, you don't really know if you'll be drafted or not.  Obviously, some kids do because every organization in baseball tells them they will.  Unless you are one of those guys, my best advice is play like there is no tomorrow.  Don't even be afraid to dive for a ball in practice.  Be the first one to practice and the last to leave.  Love the game with all your heart and let the drafting chips fall where they may.  Having fun and doing everything in your power to help your team win is way more important than worrying about getting drafted.  Winning is always noticed. 

As PG mentioned in the past the odds aren't the same for everyone. Each athlete has to weigh his odds. The 5'9", 80 mph throwing high school pitcher from two short, unathletic parents does not have the same odds as a 6'2", 90 mph throwing high school pitcher who's dad is a former pro and mother was a college athlete.

I saw the odds differently just with my two kids. But they both played college baseball and softball. I saw my daughter (the oldest) as a potential high school softball player. She became competitive and intense in high school. From the time my son was little I knew he could go as far as his motivation takes him. He had the intensity and competitiveness from day one. Keep in mind I played college ball and was a very, very marginal pro prospect.

ClevelandDad posted:

My son had already committed to his college before I had ever heard of the hsbbweb.  My main reason for joining the hsbbweb was to in fact try and figure out what his odds were and to do whatever it was in my power to help him achieve his goals.  I found there was nothing in my power other than supporting him  

I have seen conference players of the year and college All-Americans go undrafted.  It takes more than stats and awards.  You have to have some scout willing to go to bat for you.  I've seen simple things like lack of hustle and attitude causing kids to go undrafted.  The main thing I learned is until you hear your name called on draft day, you don't really know if you'll be drafted or not.  Obviously, some kids do because every organization in baseball tells them they will.  Unless you are one of those guys, my best advice is play like there is no tomorrow.  Don't even be afraid to dive for a ball in practice.  Be the first one to practice and the last to leave.  Love the game with all your heart and let the drafting chips fall where they may.  Having fun and doing everything in your power to help your team win is way more important than worrying about getting drafted.  Winning is always noticed. 

Good points CD!

One thing that I noticed, no one has figured out what percentage luck plays into the equation. 

To be honest, I wouldn't really worry about it, chances are your sons will go onto play ball in college.

"I have seen conference players of the year and college All-Americans go undrafted.  It takes more than stats and awards.  You have to have some scout willing to go to bat for you."

Also Very true- You never know who is watching and when. Some decisions are made without seeing an inning.

Great takeaway, 2 in particular liked son's pre-game attitude and effort 3 years ago;            and have gone out of their way with advice and help since then. Heard several stories like this. 

Also great advice- everyone likes a winner at any level.

Catcherdad's son is the same guy that Kyle Boddy @ Driveline raves about.

He never gave up!! Talk about the odds not being in your favor, this guy probably doesn't know about that stuff!

Check out his bio, former Clemson catcher Alex Burg!

TPM posted:

Catcherdad's son is the same guy that Kyle Boddy @ Driveline raves about.

He never gave up!! Talk about the odds not being in your favor, this guy probably doesn't know about that stuff!

Check out his bio, former Clemson catcher Alex Burg!

Oops, my bad. I always get messed up with two guys that I know! Catcherdad's is Burns dad!

https://youtu.be/uYX-NSZMqt0

this site here says a HS Player has about an 11% Chance to Play any Level of college ball

http://www.scholarshipstats.com/baseball.html

that is about 1 in 10 which is not all that low. of course that also includes dII, dIII (not sure about juco) but this means once you are in HS you just Need to be one of the best 2 Players of your Team on an average HS team. that is not easy to do but not impossible.

Still that means you have to be quite good of course, even making a HS Team probably means you are in the top 20% of all youth Players.

Dominik85 posted:

this site here says a HS Player has about an 11% Chance to Play any Level of college ball

http://www.scholarshipstats.com/baseball.html

that is about 1 in 10 which is not all that low. of course that also includes dII, dIII (not sure about juco) but this means once you are in HS you just Need to be one of the best 2 Players of your Team on an average HS team. that is not easy to do but not impossible.

Still that means you have to be quite good of course, even making a HS Team probably means you are in the top 20% of all youth Players.

Some HS teams are blessed, some are not.  My son's HS team was just picked, he's in 8th grade and was VERY curious to look up who made it.  Even the JV team is filled with the who's who of summer teams according to PG, and Varsity...gesh, D1, Ivy, Military Academy...etc.  He's going to have a tough time.

Nicest chat with my son last night--he sat on the bed and went through the returning varsity, upcoming freshmen and the rest of the sophomores and analyzed each one--so and so hits hard, but has a bad attitude. This kid could be really good but needs to do this and so on. I like that he sees clearly who has skills and what those skills are, it helps him see where he fits and what his role is, and makes it more about a checklist of what he needs to do rather than working toward a nebulous dream of playing varsity, or playing college ball.  One step at a time. 

Stop reading all the ratings and rankings.  It's not important right now. Work on improving your game and skills and not whose name is in front of yours.

TPM posted:

Stop reading all the ratings and rankings.  It's not important right now. Work on improving your game and skills and not whose name is in front of yours.

For my son it is about math.  He has been in high level math forever, and he wants numbers to crunch.  He knows you can have identical numbers and grades and one goes D1 and one goes to Juco....BUT....numbers are his comfort zone.  I don't see anything wrong with him looking, like the top 5 kids in school aren't looking at each others stuff to see who is #1 in the class?

However,  he is also going to see the 40 man roster scrimmage this weekend so he can look in person and I'm looking forward to hearing about it and what he thought of the players and coaches.

I believe middle schools curiosity is parent driven.

TPM posted:

I believe middle schools curiosity is parent driven.

Oh no, he's not "parent driven".  I told him if he wanted to watch the game he was going to have to walk to the high school, I'm getting a pedicure with my daughter

I am talking about stats, rankings and ratings.

Dominik85 posted:

this site here says a HS Player has about an 11% Chance to Play any Level of college ball

http://www.scholarshipstats.com/baseball.html

that is about 1 in 10 which is not all that low. of course that also includes dII, dIII (not sure about juco) but this means once you are in HS you just Need to be one of the best 2 Players of your Team on an average HS team. that is not easy to do but not impossible.

Still that means you have to be quite good of course, even making a HS Team probably means you are in the top 20% of all youth Players.

As stated on other threads though remember there are all sorts of other considerations.  The half of the varsity team that has no desire to play in college.  The kid who is taking a football scholarship.  The high academic who just wants to play club ball and focus on classes etc.  There are a lot who self select out of the process.  I firmly believe the odds are much closer to 100% than we care to admit.

TPM posted:

Stop reading all the ratings and rankings.  It's not important right now. Work on improving your game and skills and not whose name is in front of yours.

Remember the guy - was it sam irvin?  Some politician in the original miller lite commercials who used to say 'I feel strongly both ways'?  That's kind of how I feel about this.  On the one hand knowing what is out there and being realistic about how you stack up is important.  On the other hand it is quite meaningless to your own future.  So generally I would say be aware of whats out there but give the best effort you reasonably can and let the chips fall where they may.

Dominik85 posted:

this site here says a HS Player has about an 11% Chance to Play any Level of college ball

http://www.scholarshipstats.com/baseball.html

that is about 1 in 10 which is not all that low. of course that also includes dII, dIII (not sure about juco) but this means once you are in HS you just Need to be one of the best 2 Players of your Team on an average HS team. that is not easy to do but not impossible.

Still that means you have to be quite good of course, even making a HS Team probably means you are in the top 20% of all youth Players.

I know kids who didn't start in high school who are rostered on D3s. One kid sat at a 1A high school (small school). He sat on the bench for a bottom feeder D3 in a weak D3 conference for four years. Our local JuCo has a pathetic baseball program. They lose a lot of games by ten runs. There are former high school bench warmers on the team. They need bodies. Coppin State, a D1 used to roster anyone who wanted to play.

On the flip side there are some excellent former high school baseball players who chose to skip baseball and focus on academics in college. A high school teammate of my son chose a Big Ten for academics over all the D3s interested in him for baseball.

A rising high school player should focus on being prepared and being the best player possible. Crunching the numbers can only lead to stress and diminish performance.

Btw the chance to play MLB probably is more like 1 in 30.000 or so. MLB recruits from about about 15 birth cohorts that would be a population of 30 million men. There are probably about 1000 guys playing MLB in a year so 30 millions devided by 1000 is 30.000.

one in a million is mike trout or Lebron James.

The numbers probably don't matter. I think most people will have a chance to play in college, but they may have to compromise on the school or make tough choices on schools they love, but won't play, vs. schools where they'll play, but won't love. My 2018 has watched several of his friends who are 2016s, and not probably as good as he is, committing to schools in recent weeks. It's giving him an idea of what level he should be looking at, but he's never thought "will I get to play?" It's "how hard do I need to work to get to play someplace I want to be?"

Dominik85 posted:

Btw the chance to play MLB probably is more like 1 in 30.000 or so. MLB recruits from about about 15 birth cohorts that would be a population of 30 million men. There are probably about 1000 guys playing MLB in a year so 30 millions devided by 1000 is 30.000.

one in a million is mike trout or Lebron James.

Are you only considering the American players or all players all over the world?

What are the chances to make any decent sort of living playing baseball (not coaching baseball after a few years in the minors)?  For ease of discussion, how about total professional baseball compensation of $200k or more with no regard to how many years you play.  Upfront bonus money counts towards the $200k threshold.  No idea of the exact numbers, but now were getting into some really long odds.

2017LHPscrewball posted:

What are the chances to make any decent sort of living playing baseball (not coaching baseball after a few years in the minors)?  For ease of discussion, how about total professional baseball compensation of $200k or more with no regard to how many years you play.  Upfront bonus money counts towards the $200k threshold.  No idea of the exact numbers, but now were getting into some really long odds.

I am not understanding your point.

Iowamom23 posted:

The numbers probably don't matter. I think most people will have a chance to play in college, but they may have to compromise on the school or make tough choices on schools they love, but won't play, vs. schools where they'll play, but won't love. My 2018 has watched several of his friends who are 2016s, and not probably as good as he is, committing to schools in recent weeks. It's giving him an idea of what level he should be looking at, but he's never thought "will I get to play?" It's "how hard do I need to work to get to play someplace I want to be?"

Some of you speak like this is really a mysterious thing. 

First you do have to identify the level that you can play at and the school you can get decent grades and graduate at when you are playing a sport.

Most really cant understand that until the recruiting begins.  Then it wont be such a mystery anymore. Its like you will know what we have been talking about. Its not abuot compromising, its about the right FIT. That includes many things, not just about where you feel you should play as that is the place that makes your heart go thump, thump.

Here is an example. My sons dream all of his life, just like your others, was to play at one particular program.  All of his life he talked about it,, I am talking from kindergarten to early HS.  So one weekend he gets to play at the field of his favorite school, met the coach. 

Funny thing, he felt very uncomfortable on the mound and didn't like the coach one bit. That was the end of that, not to mention it was a private school and at that time yearly tuition was 40k+.

Get your son out there to be seen, if he is good, they will be in contact. The best attitude is to know that as a recruit you DO have control of your future, but unfortunately so many choices are based upon what one sees, and not one really knows.  My son based his decision on talking to others about programs, and there is a lot of bad and good stuff that you can find out in the process. One school son was very interested in pressured him so much ht w told them no thanks.  Its a learning process for sure.

The funny thing is, to your son, those players may not appear to him or you that they are better than your son, but he doesnt have the eyes of experience that the coaches have.  He should be worrying about HIM, not anyone else, because every situation is different. 

I will tell you about a webster here who absolutely was cray because there were players committing to programs and he felt his son was much better. Probably he was, but when the webster found out that these kids were committing for absolutely nothing, or maybe just the minimun, he began to understand how it works. As I said above, you really cant understand until it begins to happen to your son.  

So sit back and relax, really have never seen so many parents who are struggling with the process so early.

For most of your sons, things will work out, trust me.

Iowamom23 posted:

The numbers probably don't matter. I think most people will have a chance to play in college, but they may have to compromise on the school or make tough choices on schools they love, but won't play, vs. schools where they'll play, but won't love. My 2018 has watched several of his friends who are 2016s, and not probably as good as he is, committing to schools in recent weeks. It's giving him an idea of what level he should be looking at, but he's never thought "will I get to play?" It's "how hard do I need to work to get to play someplace I want to be?"

I don’t know about “most people” having a chance to play ball in college, but I would agree that most players who are either starting position players or pitchers certainly could find a place on a college team. A problem is, the myth that the only quality college ball is major DI ball forces many to either give up or take a spot then be dissatisfied.

What I'm always dumbfounded with is how people throw out the statistics to supposedly make kids or parents understand the supposed likely hood of success in sports but not in other endeavors. My son for example. If he is asked what he wants to be when he grows up, his answers is one of two things. A baseball player or a biophysical geneticist. The response is almost always the same. They say we'll make sure you study hard because it's unlikely you'll be a baseball player. What kills me is the second choice is much more difficult. Some, including his HS councilor, will give statistics on number of HS ball players vs pro ball players. To which my son responded with the number of people working in his desired field and asked "how many HS kids are in a science class?" Heck more people are drafted every year than those that receive doctorates in physics but no one tells him how impossible that dream is.  

I think a lot of kids answer "doctor, lawyer, engineer" to keep their parents from asking more questions.  Or because previously lead to believe that is the right answer.  (and it may be)

First career was a grocery store worker, second an accountant, third real estate agent.  I've never heard anyone mention any of those.