The truest inexact science

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Your thoughts!!

I like your thought's.

My thought's
Play the game, Play it hard.
And don't ever give up.
Make-em take you out kicking and screaming.
EH

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WHY??? Must be marketing. Trust me. I have seen the touted get chumped by the others!!

OS8, that seems like a slap in the face to some very good and hardworking scouts who travel 50,000 plus miles per year.
Are there variables in judgement? Well, when someone is "projecting" whether a player 18-22 will be able to play MLB in 3-6 years, of course there is subjectivity and judgement. Are the distinctions between a 4th and 10th rounder hard to define? Absolutely. Are there first rounders who bust and 40th who succeed? Yes.
To say this is "marketing" isn't correct, IMO.
To me, it is the difference in organizational approach, the difference in the quality and dedication of the scout, a bit of luck, and a lot of very hard work by the players involved.
In our son's draft class, the 10th round pick may have been the best player taken. Unfortunately, in just 2 years, the ravages of a 144 game schedule have taken their toll. So luck and breaks clearly play a roll.
When you see a scout spend 15-20 hours watching a player who ends up being taken in the 25th round, and you find out he had 5 draftees in his region before that, you know this isn't marketing. It is hard work. It starts with good scouting and ends up with the dedication, sacrifices and very hard work of the players lucky enough to be drafted.
While there are tremendous vagaries that get included in the process, marketing sure isn't one of them, IMO.

I agree 100% with infielddad. Marketing has nothing to do with where a player is selected in the draft. I also wonder why you think the system is flawed. Selecting a future MLB player is as difficult as describing the submerged portion of an iceberg. I think one of the problems we have is giving the scout unwarranted credit for selecting a player that eventually makes it in MLB. Scouting and drafting players are just two steps in the process. There are so many events and factors that happen AFTER he is selected that the scouts’ pre-draft evaluations almost becomes a non factor. For the most part good scouting and smart drafting only provide a healthy pool of MLB applicants.
Fungo
PS: Let me add my 2 cents about showcases and the impact they have on the draft. Little or none. The best players go to showcases (showcases need these players) and the best players are drafted but that is just about all they have in common. Showcases are very effective in helping the average to below average college player find a good college fit. Once you go through the draft process and see the dedication and the uncanny effectiveness of professional scouts, you start to get a grasp on how this all works. But why do scouts go to showcases? Because a scout will be present when a good player throws, catches, or hits a baseball. That's his job.

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OS8, that seems like a slap in the face to some very good and hardworking scouts who travel 50,000 plus miles per year.

*** On the contrary infielddad

The scouts are the only ones I tend to agree with? scout said one thing. "our lists mean everything

The best players go to showcases (showcases need these players) and the best players are drafted but that is just about all they have in common.

Not true Fungo.

OS8, well, if scouts are the "only" ones you "tend" to agree with, and the scout tells you only the team's list counts, how does "marketing" impact? Are you suggesting the GM who might be involved in the 1st selection and the Director of scouting/cross checkers rely on showcases, not scouting reports?
I don't understand your logic if you accept what the scout told you. If you are saying the GM/Crosschecker overrule the scout based on "marketing," I would love to hear the facts in support.
Fungo has it right. IMO, It seems you either don't understand or perhaps accept what happens after the draft and that seems to be clouding the view of what happens before the draft. Getting from the draft to major league baseball is a totally different world from the world that got a player drafted.

I am not sure why you ask for others thoughts and then want to disagree.
We are this year approaching another draft year for son. From what I thought 4 years ago when first trying to figure it out, is completely different than from what I understand now. A lot of it comes because in one way or another when our kids get attention for the upcoming draft, we tend to get excited and forget that there is SO much to it all that we, as parents have no clue about.
You can watch all the films you want between a first round pick and a 45th pick, but if you are not a scout or not the organization that drafted him, you have NO idea what the circumstances were that placed them at different rounds. If so, I would imagine you would be a scout.

After watching the draft for years, without a doubt found players in higher rounds that you might not have seen on any list. That is determined only on day one and two of the draft.
13th pick of the 2006 draft was not high on most lists until the last month before the draft. Lot of that is because, as you will find out, May determines a lot.

Marketing HAS nothing to do with it. I think that you again are trying to prove that "lists" mean nothing. Lists and scouting reports are seperate, for me, though you will find the higher ones on the list have excellent scouting reports. And yes, maybe, just maybe there is a player out there that NO one has seen yet that might be a high draft pick. But you might, may or early june all of a sudden see him 'appear" on some list. I t wasn't because of marketing, it was because that player, whether HS or college, emerged into a player to stand up and take notice too.

FYI, just because a player is on a "team" list, does NOT mean he will be drafted at all.

I understand that you are preparing yourself for the next step, but I think that you have a lot of homework to do. JMO.

Along your journey, you will find that different scouts have differnt things to say. Not slighting anyone, but this is a lot more complicated than you have it figured out. I think it very important to listen to those that have had experience through the draft and minor league and major league.

I'd love for bbscout and PG to comment on this one!

Major league scouts just watch players and submit them to their scouting director to draft. The scouting director has the final say who gets drafted and who does not.

Yeah some players get alot of attention while others do not.

Good example. Player 1 on everyones radar map for years. Turns down millions of dollars out of high school to attend college. Ok success first year in college, next 2 years cant throw a strike in college or summer ball. Goes top 3 round, because he throws hard. Puts up the worst numbers of anyone in pro ball in 2 years. Still in Rookie ball 2006.

Player 2 attends a pre draft camp. Never pitched in college was a college all american in the outfield. Signs soon after the draft for no money reaches 94 mph. Puts up very good numbers in 2 years of pro ball. In High A ball in 2006.

Always most important is the ability and makeup of the player.

Oddly enough those who take seriously the lists they compile, base everything on the ability of the player who they are ranking. We don't draw names out of a hat!

It isn't marketing at all. The only people who believe it's marketing are those who have kids who are not ranked where they think they should be or not ranked at all.

We have over two thirds of all the MLB Scouting Directors on our committee. Doesn't it make sense that they would look at these lists. They are the ones who know how accurate the list is. Those who do the lists want to be as accurate as possible, anyway we do.

I don't really think the lists are as important as some make them out to be. Anyway, I don't care how important they are... I only care about how honest and accurate they are. The lists are easy to check for accuracy,if someone wants to do the research.

Some act like we're stupid or something because we missed a player. Others write nasty comments about how we were wrong about so and so. We are wrong at times and so are the scouting departments. But we did have Scott Kazmir ranked number one and a team mate of his was drafted before him. Last year I got a nasty email saying we over rated a very tall RHP from New York when he wasn't drafted in the first round. The results came later when the Yankees signed him for a million and now he's already one of their top prospects.

Of course, the only list that truly counts is the organizations list. They have all the money! Being #1 on our list doesn't pay a whole lot! Then again most of those at the top of the list end up being wealthy because they are also on the most important list.

One thing I learned a long time ago... No sense fighting the system. It's better to learn and then work with the system. Then in small ways you might be able to make a few changes in the way people think.

Anyway, I hope all you folks that have sons that are draft eligible end up being very happy. Wouldn't it be great if that were only possible.

One last thing from someone who has been there and really knows (me)

There are GREAT scouts
There are GOOD scouts
There are AVERAGE scouts
There are POOR scouts
And there are TERRIBLE scouts

Why would anyone think it's any different... We all know that players are not all equally talented or hard working... Why would it be any different with scouts?

BTW... Good title... "The truest inexact science"... You won't get many arguements on that. even from scouts.

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There are GREAT scouts
There are GOOD scouts
There are AVERAGE scouts
There are POOR scouts
And there are TERRIBLE scouts

Insert any profession or occupation for the word scouts. This is human nature and applies to all human activities.

Do we expect all hitters to bat 1.000? or all pitchers to have 0.00 ERA's, or all fielders to have 1.000 fielding percentages? All lawyers to win every case? Do we expect scouts to be right 100% of the time?

No, we expect professionals to be right much more often than amateurs. In hindsight, any kid can tell you Michael Jordan was the greatest player of his generation yet he lasted until the third pick in his respective draft class. It was not perfectly clear back then and it wasn't clear to his freshman coach who cut him.

Here is a premise that seems hard to argue against. There will be mistakes made in every draft, in every sport from now until the end of time. Given that, it seems like we may be beating a dead horse

I am not a scout and do not have the background of PG, but based on what I have seen it is all about makeup. Character counts as much as anything that happens on the field. The road to the majors is filled with pitfalls(injury, drugs, alcohol, women, and a lot of idle time). It is an inverse curve the more talent, the less character necessary but the combination is lethal. Character contains the work ethic, and moral compass necessary to vault the pitfalls. I was suprised at how backgrounds were investigated on potentially high round draft picks. A lot of rumor and inuendo fly around at draft time, some of it started by the scouts themselves. Another interesting business decision by major league clubs is the lack of knowledge they have about some of the people they draft concerning character. I have had this conversation with a number of scouts and it does not seem to be a priority to them. Again I am painting with a broad brush here and do not want to make generalizations about the profession. I am sure that there are a lot who place character at the top of their list. I am just giving a brief overview of my experiences.

deldad,

You are correct, makeup is vitally important and it is sometimes misjudged.

It will often make the difference between two players. However, It is not #1 in importance.

I know lots of kids with great makeup and character who will never get drafted or play beyond high school. #1 is talent! If a player has enough talent, only then are the other things considered.

Makeup can sure make the difference in making it to the top, though.

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I am not sure why you ask for others thoughts and then want to disagree.

Uh...TPM, this is the internet.

BTW,
Although the 1st rounders use the showcases and the showcases use the 1st rounders, the showcases are mostly for the kids trying to catch on with a college. That's the majority by far.

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Originally posted by CADad:

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I am not sure why you ask for others thoughts and then want to disagree.

Uh...TPM, this is the internet.

good point!

How to get recognized by scouts and get drafted.

1. Be great big.
2. Have your parents invest thousands of dollars to get you on those lists cause if you don't, you'll never get any recognition.

Your right you have to be great big. And you have to spend thousands of dollars to get on those lists. Because we all know they could careless if they invest millions of dollars into players that can not play. And we all know that they do not scout players. They just draft off of those darn lists. Very good points!

Wouldn’t the more exposure good players have the more of those “nice to be on list” they would likely to be on? I would think that the more exposure a good player has the more of those scouting (important) lists a player would be on, also. JMHO

I read somewhere that if only one or two scouts know about a player, they aren’t likely to share that information with others. It went on to say that mlb organizations usually know if a player they are interested in is on any other clubs list. The more lists a player is on the higher that organization may have to draft that player in order to obtain him. While a player not on any other mlb organization’s list can go in a lower round, even though they have to be careful of letting him slide too far in the event they lose him. At least that is how I understood it.

just trying to get a rise out of you, for**ee**, and giggles