Throwing a pitch in the strike zone on 0-2.

Stats,

Love this kind of talk.  Very interesting points you brought up and the percentage numbers seem to point out that the third pitch should be in the strike zone.  I am nothing more than a dad that loves to analysis the game and arm chair coach the coach.  I always felt the 3rd strike pitch should be a low outside pitch just out of the zone, try to get the batter to chase a bad pitch.  But as I said, I am just a student of the game, but always wanting to know more.

Can you tell me of those 3rd strike pitches that did find the strike zone how many ended up as hits or a fielding out.  

Thanks for an interesting topic, I hope more people chime in with their opinions. 

Why wouldn't you want a 2 strike pitch in the zone?  Let's say you are lucky enough to strike out 8 guys in a game.  By missing with the 0-2, you have now increased your pitch count by 8 and missing 1-2 puts you at 16 more pitches (or roughly 1 inning).  I am not in favor of going out of the zone 0-2.  Never have.

I am a little surprised that the HS number is not high, due to the lack of plate experience for most kids that age.  I think there are a few factors that would dictate, for me as a coach, as to whether to attack the zone on the 3rd pitch of just try to bait it just outside the zone.  But for general rule of thumb its a no-no to throw it in the zone and risk serving up a fat on by mistake when you had them on the ropes

Captain Hook,

You’ve kinda gotten out ahead of what I was talking about. Hopefully that’s because you found the topic interesting.

Here’s what I’m talking about. Can you tell me of those 3rd strike pitches that did find the strike zone how many ended up as hits or a fielding out.

I was only trying to look at the things I could prove valid as much as possible, and that was very narrowly looking at K’s on 3 pitches that were called. That’s really the only way I have to determine whether or not a given pitch was in the strike zone because unlike MLB, I don’t have lasers and cameras. I wish I did, but they haven’t gotten to the HS level yet.

The reason I won’t try to answer your question, although I can, at least to some degree, is that I don’t have any way to tell if a pitch that gets swung at is in the zone or not. I know everyone ASSUMES a pitch is in the zone if a hitter swings at it, but I find that not to be true often enough that I won’t use it as an assumption to base metrics on.

Over the years I have looked at 0-2 counts specifically, but unfortunately until 2012 I was limited as I mentions. If you’re interested, you can look at the links http://www.infosports.com/scor...images/20batters.pdf and http://www.infosports.com/scor...mages/20pitchers.pdf

They are much the same thing but look at the numbers from the perspective of hitters or pitchers.

In general my son tells me his coaches get pretty anoyed if he gives up an 0-2 hit.  They usually say something to the pitcher about it.

I assumed this meant that they wanted a pitch out of the zone but that is not the case.

They want a well executed pitch thrown where they called it.  If you miss it, miss out of the zone, don't miss in the fat part of the plate.

They may call up and out of the zone. It may be paint outside and low, or just an inch off the plate(this pitch could account for a high percentage of those 3rd strike calls)  Not necessarily a strike, but close enough to be called by the blue.  Without video of the ABs  I don't know how you would know for sure what the numbers really mean.

I do know I have heard many coaches yell out on the field after an 0-2 hit.  What they usually say isn't a compliment to the pitcher.

redbird5,

FWIW, as a general philosophy I agree with you, but there are times when its not something that has to be held to 100%. FI, if the batter is known to be aggressive or a chaser of bad pitches, a ball out of the zone makes sense. But, the secret is always to get the pitch reasonably close to the zone, and not all pitchers have the capacity to do that. Many who try to throw a pitch 8” outside and low, can miss just a little and suddenly the pitch ends up being thigh high and over the middle of the plate.

To combat that, most will throw the ball ’18” outside and low. That way if it goes where they want, there’s a chance the batter might swing at it, if the miss away and down there’s no chance it can be hit, and if they miss up and in, the ball will be on the black just below the knees. What that’s doing is pitching defensively rather than aggressively, and the result is usually a pitch so bad the batter easily sees it and refuses to swing.

But as I said, in general I agree, especially with so many coaches looking so closely at pitch counts. Unfortunately, more often than not it that same coach calling the pitches, and if the pitcher doesn’t have confidence in his ability to execute, he’ll waste a pitch unnecessarily.

Yes, coaches get upset with 0-2 hits.  My question to them is what is the difference between an 0-2 hit and an 0-0 hit?  

stats,

I understand how it happens.  My issue is with the philosophy of "never give up an 0-2 hit".  Most hitters are far more defensive on 0-2 and you can sneak strikes by them because they expect a ball out of the zone.

redbird now thats a great way to put it.

I guess they are not happy with the lost opportunity for the K?  I am no coach but this is an interesting topic.

A solid case can be made to throw a strike 0-2.  Especially from a pitch count perspective, odds are when they put it in play it will be an out.

Stats - I wonder what the stats are for 0-2 pitches put in play.  What are the odds of a more than likely defensive swing earning a player a base hit?

IMO, the 0-2 hit, taking into account that the batter gets a good full swing in this scenario, is that you've got the batter down 0-2, why would you give a pitch in the zone that he can take a full cut on?  If the batter gets lucky and flares a low outside pitch just over an infielders head, well, no need for a coach to get mad at the pitcher, credit the batter with being able to put the stick on the ball.  But, if the batter is able to sit dead red on a meatball when he is 0-2, yeah, blame the pitcher on that one for serving one up.  

Now, if the pitcher has clearly been dominating the game and/or your team has what you consider to be a comfortable lead, by all means, attack the zone until they offense can prove that they can hit it, it will cut down the pitch count and save the P a little

This was an interesting graph I saw of MLB hitters a while back.  

I am going to say it also depends on what type of pitcher you are and how good your defense is.

If you are truly in a situation where a punchout is expected (based on pitcher skill and/or quality of opponent) and your defense behind you is less than average I would argue stay out of the zone on 0-2.  In these situations a ball in play is your enemy.  Too many misplayed balls and the random hit. 

Conversely if you have above average D behind you I say throw strikes, strikes, strikes.  Balls in play turn into outs.  Walks come back to haunt the pitcher here.

 I don't have any statistical data to support this only what my personal observation was between my son pitching last spring on our JV vs. his team this summer.

lefthook dad,

If MLB hitters hit .174 with an 0-2 count, why would we expect college or HS hitters to do better?  

To be clear, I am not talking about missing a spot.  I am talking about the deliberate 0-2 FB that is 6-8" off the plate.  To me, that pitch serves no purpose.

redbird, I really think it comes down to what level we are talking about.  I agree that an 0-2 fastball considerably out of the zone is a waste in MLB, but a slider, cutter or CU that starts in and moves out 6 inches is very valuable, especially on the big free swingers.

I would much rather attack a HS'er with a FB right down the gut, an avg HS'er that is.  Watching a lot of good high level travel ball this summer I saw a lot of "mistake" 0-2's cost a team

I coach a pretty high level travel ball team (won 16U WWB).  I didn't see many 0-2 FBs on the corners put into play hard.  What I did see, especially with my hitters, is getting down 0-2 and throwing FB 6-8" outside.  Count is now 1-2...CB in the dirt.  2-2...coach/pitcher does not want to go 3-2 so they throw FB on outer 3rd that we spank to the opposite gap.  Or, they miss and we go to 3-2.  Regardless of outcome at 3-2, that AB is a win for my hitters...not to mention they are most likely throwing a FB on 3-2.

WellSUAWTG, in my experience coaches get annoyed at just about anything that doesn’t make their team, and them in return, look good. And in my experience, it seems if something bad happens on an 0-2 pitch, they say things just to let everyone know they’re paying attention.

Sure they want a well executed pitch thrown where they call it, and if it misses they don’t want it on the fat part of the plate, but if they really get upset about it rather than just saying something to be saying something, it usually means they’re ignorant. After all, if ML pitchers have great difficulty executing pitches perfectly, what kind of fool would get angry if an amateur had the same problem?

I’ve heard coaches hollering in those situations as well, and I have little respect for those that do. That’s dang near as stupid as hollering to a pitcher to throw strikes. The implication is that the pitcher is somehow screwing up on purpose or not trying hard enough, neither of which I’ve very often seen to be the case.

Stats,

Great points , I try to cut coaches some slack though, they are competitors.

Especially like your comment about the throw strikes, but usually I hear the parents yelling that one. 

Why can't us parents just Shut Up And Watch the Game.  Easier said then done.

Stats,

Looking at strikeouts sheds only a sliver of light on the decision/execution pertaining to the third pitch.  Your analysis only considers at bats that ended with positive outcomes (from the pitcher's perspective) and only one form of positive outcome at that.  How does the whole set of 0-2 counts play out compared to other counts?

I dislike the "don't give up an 0-2 hit" philosophy because it puts two negative ideas in the pitcher's mind ("Don't" and "give up"), undermining the confidence and aggressiveness he earned by creating that 0-2 count and replacing it with a timid approach of avoiding a negative outcome.

I would much rather give a pitcher with an 0-2 count a positive and aggressive mindset by saying something like, "Make him hit your pitch!"  Remind him he's in control and on the attack.  Let him smell victory instead of making him fear defeat.

BTW, strikeouts are usually not the goal in 0-2 situations and are not the right measure of how well pitchers convert those situations.  In most situations involving pitchers and batters of comparable skill, I consider a 3-pitch ground out a better and more attainable outcome than a 5-pitch strikeout.  

Just so everyone understands, I respect what everyone’s saying. Having said that, one of the things that makes this topic so interesting is, people get to express their opinions with little supporting evidence. What I mean is, at all levels below the ML, there just isn’t the data available to verify many things. And even at that level, there’s no way to know what the intent of the pitcher was on any given pitch, so its really impossible to know if something was a mistake or not.

I’m lucky in that I have data that’s far deeper than anyone I’ve ever encountered at the HS level, but even at that there are a lot of things I simply can’t prove one way or the other. A big reason for that is, I don’t/won’t chart pitches, and without that its really difficult to come to many conclusions about what’s taken place. Oh I can tell you how many hits, outs, K’s, ROE’s, or HBPs have taken place on an 0-2 count, and if you looked at those links I posted, I can tell you the final result of every AB that began 0-2.

But that doesn’t really say whether or not the pitches were where the pitchers really wanted them, or if they were in the strike zone, let alone exactly where they were and what kind of pitch they were.

I'll add my $0.02.  First, I think the stats need to be better developed to have any usefulness.  Based on your numbers, you're looking at about a 30% success rate for a strike out looking.  So what happens the other 70% of the time.You really need to be able to look at every 0-2 count and see what happened on the next pitch -- ball, strike, or in play. 

Also, I think it is important to define "in or out of the strike zone."  One post above makes reference to a pitch 6-8" out.  I agree its probably not a worthwhile pitch.  But throwing to the edges of the zone trying to get a defensive swing, or a "bad call" is worth it.  Your looking for small misses.      

Golfman25,

Evidently you’re only looking at the numbers in the post, not the numbers in the links.

I don’t understand what has to be defined. In the strike zone means a pitch that meets the rule book definition and is called a strike by the umpire.

During our Area Code Games in 1998, the Chicago White Sox team had a photo of the 90 mph club.

This included 5 pitchers from the Midwest USA who exceeded 90 mph.

One of the pitcher's father mentioned that he had a 75 pitch count imposed to the HS Coach.

Therefore, I would not be pitching outside on the 0-2 count, If I wanted to keep this pitcher in the game.

Why is it always pitching outside, not inside. If i remember the inside corner of the plate is a strike.

Bob

Totally agree.

You won't hear me say,  'that pitch was too good for 0-2'.

Attack.

Like I said, I think it depends on  a lot of factors whether to attack the zone or just try to bait the batter into a poor swing decision.  My son played 17U, they won a cpl tournaments, and their team, along with some of the top opponents, would make a pitcher pay for an 0-2 fatty

With an 0-2 count, P wants to make a quality pitch.  That may be a ball or it may be a strike.  Good pitching is keeping hitters off-balance.  A typical hitter will take a more defensive approach with 0-2 and try to get the bat on the ball if it looks like it may be a strike.  A good quality 0-2 pitch (and most common) may be a change or curve that start in the zone but fall out or fall to the edge of the zone, making it difficult to hit hard and difficult to lay off. Another may be a high FB that a hitter might have to swing at, protecting against the possibility of that pitch being a change that falls into the strike zone.  If P can overpower a hitter, it may make sense to keep pounding the zone with FB.  If hitter won't/can't hit the curve, it may make sense to throw that for a strike 0-2.  But, for a hitter who can hit FB and off-speed, you are taking away the advantage that you have earned by playing a guessing game and throwing one or the other over the heart.  So, a P may try to execute a pitch out of the zone but, if he executes well, the result will likely be favorable.

I agree that a total waste pitch (purposely well off the plate while never appearing to be a strike) is just that - a waste.  However, you must try to determine just how far a given hitter will chase and use the count to your advantage.

0-2 is the ultimate advantage for a pitcher.  Regarding "if you are going to miss, miss away", the general idea is correct but the mental thought process is not (as Swampboy stated).  Better would be to have the target set just slightly away from the strike zone relative to the perfect target spot.   Granted, HS pitchers will not always hit their spot, but it should remain the objective and what they constantly work to improve upon. 

Stats, one extraction that can be taken from your numbers is based on the fact that more 0-2 K's are swinging instead of looking.  That supports the notion that most hitters will expand the zone and defend, therefore, swinging at a wider range of pitch locations.  So, it does make sense to get the pitches out on the edges or just off where they cannot hit them hard.

Originally Posted by redbird5:

I understand how it happens.  My issue is with the philosophy of "never give up an 0-2 hit".  Most hitters are far more defensive on 0-2 and you can sneak strikes by them because they expect a ball out of the zone.

Well, I can’t argue with the thought, but then again I don’t know if its MOST you can do that to, or if its really MANY or SOME.

cabbagedad,

Supports, yes, but I don’t know that that means a great deal. It true, but its also true that more strikes come from a pitch that’s swung at than called, so I don’t know what it means to prove that’s true.

It also makes sense that with 2 strikes hitters would expand their personal zone, but again, its not something I have any proof of.

I don’t know that any more reasons not to throw the ball over the heart of the plate are needed than its easier for most batters to get the barrel of the bat to that location.

But one thing that’s a universal truth it would seem, is that the best count for a pitcher is 0-2 because it gives him the most options possible.

What is the thinking of the umpire?

0-2 an opportunity to shorten the game.

Bob

I couldn't make heads or tails out of those numbers other than the pitchers thru +4 total pitches with on 0-2 count. 

As for the zone, there are good misses and bad misses.  If your buddy is saying throw the ball 8" outside the zone and waste a pitch, then I think he nuts.  If he is saying keep the ball out of the zone, but close enough for a call, swing & miss, or weakly hit ball, then he is smart.  Big difference. 

Originally Posted by Golfman25:

I couldn't make heads or tails out of those numbers other than the pitchers thru +4 total pitches with on 0-2 count. 

Well ok. I accept this as a challenge to explain the metrics I posted.

Looking at the pitchers link, there are 4 different reports. Their names can be found in the upper left corner of the 1^st page of the report.

The 1^st one is THREEBINDV. It lists only our pitchers and is broken out by the pitcher and the count(in this case it 0-2 but can be run for any count or combination of counts). It only looks at ABs that ended on the 3^rd pitch. Each is broken out by the result of the AB, and how many times that result took place for that pitcher. Then the times 3 pitch at bats took place are totaled. That report is 3 pages long.

The next one is 20COUNT1. This one is different in that it looks at all ABS that began with an 0-2 count no matter how many pitches it to finish the AB. This one was created because I once scored for a coach who continually hollered at the pitchers about all the wasted pitches that took place when they lost hitters after starting 0-2. The numbers proved his perception to be wildly different than what really took place. It was originally developed for a 12U team, but I’ve left it in the package because I still run into parents that have the same incorrect perceptions, and that report shuts them up every time. That one is 5 pages long.

The next report is the same format, but for opponents, and is 9 pages long.

The next is 20COUNT1BPOS1. That’s an attempt to put all the players on one page so they can be compared much more easily. IT shows the number of 0-2 PAs compared to the number of total PAs and gives a percentage that’s used to order the pitchers. IOW, the pitcher who goes 0-2 a higher percentage of times is ranked higher. Of course that ranking means absolutely nothing, but it gives a way to order the report.

After that, it breaks out each different type of PA result by giving the number of each, the number of pitches for each, and how many pitches average it took for each. The last report is the same, but for our opponents.

I hope that help you make both heads and tails out of what’s there. I realize how difficult it is to look at something like that and make sense out of it with no explanation what-so-ever, but its really difficult to format any kind of metric other than what people are used to in a way that’s intuitively obvious. Its why there’s a standing invitation to everyone who look at the stats I produce, to ask for explanations if they don’t understand what something is.

Maybe you can teach me something I can use in the future. If you wanted to display what happens on a certain count, like 0-2, how would you do it. What data would you need, how would you collate it, what math would you do to get usable information, and how would you format the output? I’m serious. I try hard to present information that people can use in an as easy to understand manner as possible.

As for the zone, there are good misses and bad misses.  If your buddy is saying throw the ball 8" outside the zone and waste a pitch, then I think he nuts.  If he is saying keep the ball out of the zone, but close enough for a call, swing & miss, or weakly hit ball, then he is smart.  Big difference. 

Believe it or not, I said much the same thing to him. He tried to explain what he meant, but he was so many clichés, buzzwords, and coach speak, he really never made it clear. I suspect though, that what he was doing was exaggerating in order to make a point, which is pretty typical.

In my experience,  HS pitchers nibbling is way more of a problem than pitchers being too aggressive in the zone.  I coach accordingly--attack the zone-- and work darned hard to keep my message consistent.

We're more aggressive on 0-2's than most of the teams we face.

One "aw-s__t" ( from a coach) cancels out 10 attaboys.

One "That pitch was too good for 0-2!" cancels out 10 coach speeches about "pitching to contact", avoiding bases-on-balls, etc.

The consensus of this thread is that 0-2 pitches in HS play shouldn't be total wastes, but shouldn't be too fat either.

IMO, with a typical HS pitcher on the mound, that message from the coaches will generate a lot of total wastes.

Excellent post, Freddy77.

Definitely something I struggle with and have to do a better job of.  Not overreacting when our pitchers allow hitters to barrel up w/ an 0-2 count on hitters, while also preaching/having the "on-or-out" in four pitch philosophy.