Beast,
What is your sons name?
First, he would have to come workout in front of us. Second is the parents can't be "Nightmares".
KCR you have a PM.
So nice to have a friend in high places that's a moderator. 
Ken,
If Ichiro were an 18 year old amateur we would grade him based on what we see. If he showed Major League power we would grade him accordingly, trying to predict how many home runs he would hit in the Major Leagues.
Once a player is established in the Major Leagues his grade is most often based on the results more than any prediction. Thus a hitter who averages less than 10 home runs a year for 6 or 7 years, can not possibly be a graded a plus power hitter.
That said, there are some 3 and 4 tool guys who are much more valuable than some 5 tool guys. 80-70-70-70-40 is better than 60-60-60-60-60 (unless the play at hand involves that one tool). Here's how one person (me) would grade Ichiro... 80 speed, 80 arm, 70 field, 80 hitter, 40 power. That would be an unreal 70 OFP. Unbelievable! But that is about how I would grade him out.
If Ichiro were an 18 year old amateur we would grade him based on what we see. If he showed Major League power we would grade him accordingly, trying to predict how many home runs he would hit in the Major Leagues.
Once a player is established in the Major Leagues his grade is most often based on the results more than any prediction. Thus a hitter who averages less than 10 home runs a year for 6 or 7 years, can not possibly be a graded a plus power hitter.
That said, there are some 3 and 4 tool guys who are much more valuable than some 5 tool guys. 80-70-70-70-40 is better than 60-60-60-60-60 (unless the play at hand involves that one tool). Here's how one person (me) would grade Ichiro... 80 speed, 80 arm, 70 field, 80 hitter, 40 power. That would be an unreal 70 OFP. Unbelievable! But that is about how I would grade him out.
PGStaff -- what's the highest ML rating you have ever given to a HS kid? What about a college (JUCO or otherwise) kid? I assume the highest rating does not necessarily translate into the #1 prospect.
quote:Originally posted by Panther Dad:
PGStaff -- what's the highest ML rating you have ever given to a HS kid? What about a college (JUCO or otherwise) kid? I assume the highest rating does not necessarily translate into the #1 prospect.
I know this was directed at PG, but the highest number I have seen put on a prospect using the 20-80 scale was Tim Lincecum (70), and Chad Hermanson (70).
quote:Originally posted by Panther Dad:
Which tools are most important to scouts? It seems speed is at the top of the list -- "you can't teach speed".Here are the 60 times from Long Beach for the Rangers AC team. 6.6's can turn into 6.8's...6.8's to 7.0's.....alot depends on the track and the timing approach. Granted a fast kid is still fast, no matter the running surface.....but what does .2 seconds mean on the diamond? <--- an interesting subject to me.
RANDALL THORPE | 6.50 | RANGERS
JARROD MCKINNEY | 6.63 | RANGERS
ROSS SEATON | 6.80 | RANGERS
BRANDON LOY | 6.82 | RANGERS
JP RAMIREZ | 6.82 | RANGERS
JEREMY RATHJEN | 6.90 | RANGERS
KALEB MERCK | 6.92 | RANGERS
JONATHAN PERLMAN | 6.96 | RANGERS
HUNTER CERVENKA | 6.97 | RANGERS
These are 9 of the top 37 times in Long Beach and the team did not show well. My comments are not intended to demean any of these kids -- they are some of the best players in the state.....but it goes to show that team speed is but one important ingredient to winning baseball. Your thoughts?
To bad you can't steal first!
Here we go again.
Just off the top of my mind... High school kids...
The highest grades I can remember giving to any amateur player... Have never had the guts to give an 80.
Scott Kazmir - 70 fastball (turned out about right)
Prince Fielder - 65 power (turned out a bit low, he now looks like a 70+ power guy)
Carl Crawford - 70 run (turned out about right or a bit low because some would say he is 80)
Harold Martinez - 70 arm (still to see at the MLB level)
Ryan Zimmerman - 70 field (maybe about right or some would say a bit high others might say too low)
Joe Mauer - 65 hitter (probably a bit low seeing he won the AL batting title last year)
Justin Upton 65+ OFP (feel pretty good about this one, could be higher as he is the best tools guy we have seen in many years)
There are others ie, Matt Weiters who we graded higher than most, but not above 70 at anything.
But these are all simply opinions.
The highest grades I can remember giving to any amateur player... Have never had the guts to give an 80.
Scott Kazmir - 70 fastball (turned out about right)
Prince Fielder - 65 power (turned out a bit low, he now looks like a 70+ power guy)
Carl Crawford - 70 run (turned out about right or a bit low because some would say he is 80)
Harold Martinez - 70 arm (still to see at the MLB level)
Ryan Zimmerman - 70 field (maybe about right or some would say a bit high others might say too low)
Joe Mauer - 65 hitter (probably a bit low seeing he won the AL batting title last year)
Justin Upton 65+ OFP (feel pretty good about this one, could be higher as he is the best tools guy we have seen in many years)
There are others ie, Matt Weiters who we graded higher than most, but not above 70 at anything.
But these are all simply opinions.
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
Ken,
If Ichiro were an 18 year old amateur we would grade him based on what we see. If he showed Major League power we would grade him accordingly, trying to predict how many home runs he would hit in the Major Leagues.
Once a player is established in the Major Leagues his grade is most often based on the results more than any prediction. Thus a hitter who averages less than 10 home runs a year for 6 or 7 years, can not possibly be a graded a plus power hitter.
That said, there are some 3 and 4 tool guys who are much more valuable than some 5 tool guys. 80-70-70-70-40 is better than 60-60-60-60-60 (unless the play at hand involves that one tool). Here's how one person (me) would grade Ichiro... 80 speed, 80 arm, 70 field, 80 hitter, 40 power. That would be an unreal 70 OFP. Unbelievable! But that is about how I would grade him out.
Well said and I tend to agree with most..........
But let's put this out there for discussion........
Let's say the Boston Red Sox show interest in a trade for Ichiro and plan to use him in the middle of the line up. Obviously the protection is there for him as well. Oh yeah, and ole' Fenway lends a helping hand with Peski's pole out there for that speedy little lefty power hitter.
So Ichiro starts to change is approach for a few seasons and puts up some nice power numbers. 30, 35, and 32 in three seasons along with a .310 batting average over those three years.
So now you've got a player that changed his approach, increased his power numbers yet decreased his average numbers............
Now do his "tools" change on a grading scale?
I just don't understand how a players "tools" can change according to statistics. Especially in an Ichiro case when it's obvious the tools he has.
Ken,
You make a great point and I'm not sure how to answer, except to say the entire grading system is based on what really happens at the Major League level. There have been lots of guys with 70 power who never hit more than 20 home runs in a year over their entire career. So in the end they were really not 70 in power.
I suppose it is possible that some club would trade for Ichiro for lots of reasons, but I doubt it would be to turn one of the best players in the game into a home run hitter. And yes, there have been cases where hitters gain power in the ML, but it's always reflected in the numbers at that level.
During a 162 game schedule every hitter has lots of at bats that could be considered power situations. Ichiro usually leads the league in at bats. Yet he hits less than 10 a year and I think he has 5 this year.
Then again, you have scouts that grade the same player, same tool differently. So I'm never sure my thinking is perfect. In fact, I'm fairly certain it isn't! But in my estimation, the true power grade is a combination of having the ability and producing it at the ML level.
Ichiro is 5-9/160. In seven seasons, 4595 ABs he has 66 home runs. Thats one HR in about every 70 ABs. True it might be his approach, but that could be said about amateur players as well.
In my way of thinking... Everything is a prediction until they reach the big leagues. Then the numbers become the standard for those predictions (grades) in most cases. Major League scouting then becomes much more technical than grading tools. Advanced scouts are looking for trends, weaknesses, etc. It's no longer what can he do, it's more what DOES he do.
Then again in order to show how mixed up I am, I would have graded Wade Boggs above average in power and he only hit 118 HRs in his career. I know, kind of hypocritical, aint it? And for much the same reason that others think Ichiro is a plus in power. It's just that Boggs was much bigger and he put on upper deck displays in BP. I really believe he is one guy who could have been a league leader in HRs. I know, he wasn't, so what the hell am I talking about.
Anyway, it's fun to discuss this stuff with people who know a lot about baseball. Thanks
You make a great point and I'm not sure how to answer, except to say the entire grading system is based on what really happens at the Major League level. There have been lots of guys with 70 power who never hit more than 20 home runs in a year over their entire career. So in the end they were really not 70 in power.
I suppose it is possible that some club would trade for Ichiro for lots of reasons, but I doubt it would be to turn one of the best players in the game into a home run hitter. And yes, there have been cases where hitters gain power in the ML, but it's always reflected in the numbers at that level.
During a 162 game schedule every hitter has lots of at bats that could be considered power situations. Ichiro usually leads the league in at bats. Yet he hits less than 10 a year and I think he has 5 this year.
Then again, you have scouts that grade the same player, same tool differently. So I'm never sure my thinking is perfect. In fact, I'm fairly certain it isn't! But in my estimation, the true power grade is a combination of having the ability and producing it at the ML level.
Ichiro is 5-9/160. In seven seasons, 4595 ABs he has 66 home runs. Thats one HR in about every 70 ABs. True it might be his approach, but that could be said about amateur players as well.
In my way of thinking... Everything is a prediction until they reach the big leagues. Then the numbers become the standard for those predictions (grades) in most cases. Major League scouting then becomes much more technical than grading tools. Advanced scouts are looking for trends, weaknesses, etc. It's no longer what can he do, it's more what DOES he do.
Then again in order to show how mixed up I am, I would have graded Wade Boggs above average in power and he only hit 118 HRs in his career. I know, kind of hypocritical, aint it? And for much the same reason that others think Ichiro is a plus in power. It's just that Boggs was much bigger and he put on upper deck displays in BP. I really believe he is one guy who could have been a league leader in HRs. I know, he wasn't, so what the hell am I talking about.
Anyway, it's fun to discuss this stuff with people who know a lot about baseball. Thanks
Ken -- at that point in time, the tools grading scale is unimportant. His future contracts will be based on the market, his statistics, and the economies of MLB. None of this is news to you. I have always viewed Ichiro as a 5-tools player because he has demonstrated that he possesses each tool as a professional and has shown the ability to adapt his game. Very few of the best college and HS players know their game well enough -- or are mature enough to adapt. Not very many coaches at those levels require it -- they have a kid for 2-3 years.....why mess with it? Once a kid gets to pro ball, the teams are able to evalulate tools on a longer term.....so you see kids moving from position to position....even to or away from the bump. It appears Rick Ankiel has tools! 
Here's a question for those that want to continue along this line.....
How may plus (WOW) major league tools do/did these players display?
Rafeal Palmero
Ian Kinsler
Michael Young
David Eckstein
Magglio Ordonez
Gerald Laird
Grady Sizemore
It would be fun to be able to judge bullpen catcher tools.
I'm kidding, KG.
Life of a bullpen catcher <-- quick read, it would be fun while it lasted
Here's a question for those that want to continue along this line.....
How may plus (WOW) major league tools do/did these players display?
Rafeal Palmero
Ian Kinsler
Michael Young
David Eckstein
Magglio Ordonez
Gerald Laird
Grady Sizemore
It would be fun to be able to judge bullpen catcher tools.
I'm kidding, KG. Life of a bullpen catcher <-- quick read, it would be fun while it lasted
quote:
Anyway, it's fun to discuss this stuff with people who know a lot about baseball. Thanks
Jerry, it's always a pleasure to discuss things with you.
Your knowledge and how you apply it through PG is why it's a first class venue.
Thanks for the discussion and I think PG needs to sponsor a Homerun Derby between Ichiro and Boggs.
quote:
It would be fun to be able to judge bullpen catcher tools.
Whatever, all bullpen catchers weight 275.......they have no skills.
CoughCough12thround1997CoughCough
Ken -- quotes have been banned in this topic to accomodate lazy readers. Concider yourself warned.
And to think I always have had Peanut's back and he just keeps sticking those bars in my back. Peace Out on this topic, and the new rules. You'd think someones fixin to be in court. 
To go back to “Panther Dads” original question…
Which tools are most important to scouts?
They are all important, but there is a very simple answer to this question if you look at it backwards. Of course, this only deals for position players and not any specific position..
If a player has four plus tools and is well below average in the 5th…
A player who is well below average in running speed
Well below average arm
Well below average fielding
Well below average power
Well below average hitter
If a player has plus tools in the other four areas… Which one of the above will have the least chance of playing in the Major Leagues?
Looking at it this way, it becomes fairly obvious (to me anyway) and deemax mentioned it, that being able to hit is the number one most important tool, these days.
Used to be that speed, fielding, arm were enough to play in the middle infield, centerfield, or catch. Now days, running, throwing, fielding all take a back seat because if a player can’t hit, his chances are very slim. And some could make a point that hitting with power might be the second most attractive tool. It’s just that power is fairly useless if a player can’t square up on the ball often enough. So first comes hit!
Prince Fielder was the 7th pick of the draft. The first two high school players selected this past June, are not plus runners. One has a plus arm, neither were the nation’s top high school fielders. If you watched all the top prospects without seeing them hit, these two would have been drafted much later behind others who can run and field better. Yet they went with the 2nd and the 3rd pick overall. The bat plays HUGE! The draft reminds us of that every year. The other tools are important, but they are secondary.
You could say that this is just my opinion, but I think that opinion is shared by 30 MLB Scouting Departments.
Which tools are most important to scouts?
They are all important, but there is a very simple answer to this question if you look at it backwards. Of course, this only deals for position players and not any specific position..
If a player has four plus tools and is well below average in the 5th…
A player who is well below average in running speed
Well below average arm
Well below average fielding
Well below average power
Well below average hitter
If a player has plus tools in the other four areas… Which one of the above will have the least chance of playing in the Major Leagues?
Looking at it this way, it becomes fairly obvious (to me anyway) and deemax mentioned it, that being able to hit is the number one most important tool, these days.
Used to be that speed, fielding, arm were enough to play in the middle infield, centerfield, or catch. Now days, running, throwing, fielding all take a back seat because if a player can’t hit, his chances are very slim. And some could make a point that hitting with power might be the second most attractive tool. It’s just that power is fairly useless if a player can’t square up on the ball often enough. So first comes hit!
Prince Fielder was the 7th pick of the draft. The first two high school players selected this past June, are not plus runners. One has a plus arm, neither were the nation’s top high school fielders. If you watched all the top prospects without seeing them hit, these two would have been drafted much later behind others who can run and field better. Yet they went with the 2nd and the 3rd pick overall. The bat plays HUGE! The draft reminds us of that every year. The other tools are important, but they are secondary.
You could say that this is just my opinion, but I think that opinion is shared by 30 MLB Scouting Departments.
Maybe, just maybe, and I throw this out there with limited knowledge, it's because hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in sports. (Besides painting the black of course )
Makes sense to me PG.
)Makes sense to me PG.
Well PG,
You may be right. And if anyone has information sources to gain from, there is probably none better than you.
But...................
There aren't too many MLB players out there that grade like this............
20 Arm
20 Speed
20 Fielding
30 Power
70 Hitting.............
If there are, most likely they are DHing or playing 1st base.
That gives you a maximum of 45 players.........
Just some that come to the top of my head.......
Matt Stairs, Russell Branyon (good arm though), Frank Thomas (more than 30 on power though, Jim Thome (and he came up as a 3rd baseman so there must be some arm there)
I'm sure there are a few more, but not many........
Basically saying, I agree that "hitting" is the most important tool while evaluating for professional potential, but you better have a little more junk in your trunk than just that.
You may be right. And if anyone has information sources to gain from, there is probably none better than you.
But...................
There aren't too many MLB players out there that grade like this............
20 Arm
20 Speed
20 Fielding
30 Power
70 Hitting.............
If there are, most likely they are DHing or playing 1st base.
That gives you a maximum of 45 players.........
Just some that come to the top of my head.......
Matt Stairs, Russell Branyon (good arm though), Frank Thomas (more than 30 on power though, Jim Thome (and he came up as a 3rd baseman so there must be some arm there)
I'm sure there are a few more, but not many........
Basically saying, I agree that "hitting" is the most important tool while evaluating for professional potential, but you better have a little more junk in your trunk than just that.
Maybe it's not the most important to have, but the biggest one that you don't want to "not have." Meaning, maybe it can't completely make a guy, but it may break a guy. I'm confused by my own wording.
DTiger,
Hitting a baseball against someone painting the black with good stuff is the hardest thing of all. And when someone can do it, it doesn't go unnoticed.
BTW, The 9th pick overall and the first HS pitcher selected in this year's draft is a RHP and he is not 6 foot tall, no matter what he is listed. He does throw in the upper 90s with a plus plus breaking ball, though.
Hitting a baseball against someone painting the black with good stuff is the hardest thing of all.
And when someone can do it, it doesn't go unnoticed. BTW, The 9th pick overall and the first HS pitcher selected in this year's draft is a RHP and he is not 6 foot tall, no matter what he is listed. He does throw in the upper 90s with a plus plus breaking ball, though.
That means I've only got a few mph to go! 
Ken,
Of course you are correct, I agree 100%. Did I say anything to the contrary? Not sure about how many 20, 20, 20, 30, 70 hit guys there really are but... If there are any it means they would be one of the better hitters in the Major Leagues. 20 is an NP.
Taking it the other way around... there could be a 20 thrower (Daman), there could be a 20 runner, there could be a 20 power, there could even be a 20 fielder, but there are no 20 hitters getting to the big leagues.
That said, it would be highly unlikely that one player in the major leagues would have that many 20 grades. It does take a certain amount of athleticism. Even though John Kruk made the statement... I'm not an athlete... I'm a baseball player! Actually, he was a guy who was a 70 hitter.
Of course you are correct, I agree 100%. Did I say anything to the contrary? Not sure about how many 20, 20, 20, 30, 70 hit guys there really are but... If there are any it means they would be one of the better hitters in the Major Leagues. 20 is an NP.
Taking it the other way around... there could be a 20 thrower (Daman), there could be a 20 runner, there could be a 20 power, there could even be a 20 fielder, but there are no 20 hitters getting to the big leagues.
That said, it would be highly unlikely that one player in the major leagues would have that many 20 grades. It does take a certain amount of athleticism. Even though John Kruk made the statement... I'm not an athlete... I'm a baseball player! Actually, he was a guy who was a 70 hitter.
DTiger,
You don't have to throw THAT hard to get there and I hope you do get there. I think you would be very good for the game if you did.
You don't have to throw THAT hard to get there and I hope you do get there. I think you would be very good for the game if you did.
I think I've still got some mph to go...
Okay Uncle E,
I finally got the answer I was looking for. Thanks to PG and YOU!
I finally got the answer I was looking for. Thanks to PG and YOU!
UPDATE ON TOOLS!
All of listed players below are tools:
PD
SWAC
Texan
Ken Guthrie
Train
Beast
Dtiger
Wolf
ballboy
Meatsdad
etc, etc, etc......
And before you blow gaskets.....IT's A JOKE!
All of listed players below are tools:
PD
SWAC
Texan
Ken Guthrie
Train
Beast
Dtiger
Wolf
ballboy
Meatsdad
etc, etc, etc......
And before you blow gaskets.....IT's A JOKE!
You forgot a few.....but thanks!
Hey, I resemble that remark.........
quote:Originally posted by JAFO:
UPDATE ON TOOLS!
All of listed players below are tools:
PD
SWAC
Texan
Ken Guthrie
Train
Beast
Dtiger
Wolf
ballboy
Meatsdad
etc, etc, etc......
And before you blow gaskets.....IT's A JOKE!
Does anyone notice an obvious difference in one of those screen names?
I'll take a shot.
Dtiger is the only baseball player!
Dtiger is the only baseball player!
I'll take a shot too...
Ken Guthrie is the only one using his real name as his member name..
Ken Guthrie is the only one using his real name as his member name..
quote:Originally posted by knowitall:
I'll take a shot.
Dtiger is the only baseball player!
Close..............
But not exactly.
quote:Originally posted by cheapseats:
I'll take a shot too...
Ken Guthrie is the only one using his real name..
Ding, Ding, Ding................
I'll take real names for $100 Alex.........
Answer - This person isn't scared and has played more games that just Peek-A-Boo.............
Cheapseats.............."Who is Ken Guthrie?"
Correct............
I'll take real names for $200 Alex..........
I'm sorry Cheapseats, in that catagory we only have one answer..........
Ok then, give me Nonsense for $100............
Ok then, give me Nonsense for $100........
Okokok, I feel compelled to respond, despite the fact that there may be a lot of good-natured kidding going on here. Sometimes I'm slow.
It shouldn't take a genius to recognize that Internet message boards were and will continue to be created with the premise that a contributor can be anonymous. This isn't a new concept -- it's been this way since Gore invented the Internet. Furthermore, the purpose of this tool does not require verification of a person's identity as most posts are not financial transactions or commitments -- social security #, credit card data, or license plate numbers are not exchanged -- it's not eCommerce. You don't have to provide your childhood pet's breed or your mother's maiden name. To register, all you need is an email address. It's a simple concept really. After all, when you sit in a coffee shop or an airport or your company's break room, do you need to show ID to take part in an exchange of opinions??? When that becomes the case, we're REALLY messed up.
Along this line....the idea that those of you that do choose to use your real name are doing something heroic is somewhat absurd to me. Jack the Ripper can create a screen name here and select "George W" as a screen name if it is available. So, can anyone CONFIRM - without question or doubt - that "Ken Guthrie" is Ken Guthrie? Ummm, nope. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery? *shrug*
Ken -- it's great that you use your real name. Cool deal. And I know your thing here is to stir the pot -- the old pot-stirers grew weary, I guess. But, ALL of us are entitled to baseball opinions -- some might even be widely accepted -- without using real names. It don't make us ignerentt.
In my humble disguised manner I interpretted JAFO's post to include those that might not be OFFENDED by being called a "tool" ---- in the same manner in which I used the term to describe the Poteet catcher ---- a kid that I admire....although it's a shame he had to include the IT'S A JOKE disclaimer. Certainly, I would have banished him without that clarification.
Ok, I'm being overly sensitive today.
-Randy Emens
It shouldn't take a genius to recognize that Internet message boards were and will continue to be created with the premise that a contributor can be anonymous. This isn't a new concept -- it's been this way since Gore invented the Internet. Furthermore, the purpose of this tool does not require verification of a person's identity as most posts are not financial transactions or commitments -- social security #, credit card data, or license plate numbers are not exchanged -- it's not eCommerce. You don't have to provide your childhood pet's breed or your mother's maiden name. To register, all you need is an email address. It's a simple concept really. After all, when you sit in a coffee shop or an airport or your company's break room, do you need to show ID to take part in an exchange of opinions??? When that becomes the case, we're REALLY messed up.
Along this line....the idea that those of you that do choose to use your real name are doing something heroic is somewhat absurd to me. Jack the Ripper can create a screen name here and select "George W" as a screen name if it is available. So, can anyone CONFIRM - without question or doubt - that "Ken Guthrie" is Ken Guthrie? Ummm, nope. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery? *shrug*
Ken -- it's great that you use your real name. Cool deal. And I know your thing here is to stir the pot -- the old pot-stirers grew weary, I guess. But, ALL of us are entitled to baseball opinions -- some might even be widely accepted -- without using real names. It don't make us ignerentt.
In my humble disguised manner
I interpretted JAFO's post to include those that might not be OFFENDED by being called a "tool" ---- in the same manner in which I used the term to describe the Poteet catcher ---- a kid that I admire....although it's a shame he had to include the IT'S A JOKE disclaimer. Certainly, I would have banished him without that clarification. Ok, I'm being overly sensitive today.
-Randy Emens
Everyone knows my name... does that count??? Or if you don't, PM me.
We know your name....we just can't spell it.
Feeling pressure to reveal it, Kyle?