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From other people's experiences it was ...

1) Kid saw he was in over his head.

2) Kid didn't see an avenue to the field based on depth chart.

3) Coach told the kid he didn't want him on the team next year or told him no more scholarship (same thing unless your a senior starter).

Thinking about it occurs when you see it. Knowing is when you see confirmation. If you're not getting in 20-0 home game blowouts, guess what!

Having recently been through this, it's important to make sure you don't spend so much time pondering the question of whether to transfer that you miss transfer application deadlines.  My son was able to transfer to his #1 choice, but there were a couple of other schools of interest where the deadline had already past and the coaches had very little, if any, leverage to get admissions to consider a late application.  On the other hand, there were other schools where the coach never even mentioned the transfer application deadline.  Am assuming they have more pull to get admissions to look at a late application.  

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