Uncommitted Players

See screenshot below from same site. This is a great way to get in person exposure to 12 schools - a couple of which are among the best JuCo programs in America. If you are an uncommitted 2021 I would make this happen, assuming you can get there. A four hour drive (or more) isn’t unreasonable considering the circumstances. The 2021 recruiting classes are going to be way smaller than normal at most every school due to already existing overcrowded rosters. Time to widen your horizons. 

Couldn’t agree more with @adbono.  The JUCO Route showcases are just like all the others in terms of drills, measurables and video except costs less than everybody else.  Having schools confirmed to be there is gold. Get emails out to EVERY school that is attending right now and work the relationship between now and then so they’ll take a good look at you at this thing next month. All 2021s should be passed the “I’m good enough to play college ball, so I WILL play college ball.” thought process at this point. Covid has changed everything and it’s not done having a negative impact on college baseball yet.  

@adbono posted:

See screenshot below from same site. This is a great way to get in person exposure to 12 schools - a couple of which are among the best JuCo programs in America. If you are an uncommitted 2021 I would make this happen, assuming you can get there. A four hour drive (or more) isn’t unreasonable considering the circumstances. The 2021 recruiting classes are going to be way smaller than normal at most every school due to already existing overcrowded rosters. Time to widen your horizons. 

I have a friend with a 2022.  What do you think the impact will be on 2022 recruiting classes?  My thoughts are that a lot of 2020's that were pushed into Juco's are going to be available and that will hurt the 2022's.  I know you are big on Juco's, but what advice would you give to a low-mid D1 type of 2022 recruit?  

@d-mac posted:

I have a friend with a 2022.  What do you think the impact will be on 2022 recruiting classes?  My thoughts are that a lot of 2020's that were pushed into Juco's are going to be available and that will hurt the 2022's.  I know you are big on Juco's, but what advice would you give to a low-mid D1 type of 2022 recruit?  

I think 2022 recruiting classes are going to be smaller too. Especially for 4 year D1 mid-majors. There is going to be a huge shuffle of the deck in December 2020 and cards will fly all over the room. When the dust settles lots of players will have moved down a notch if they want to continue to play ; P5 players down to D1 mid-majors, D1 mid-major players to D2, etc. So the specific advice I would give a 2022 is to target JuCos NOW. Go to on campus camps & showcases NOW. Get on someone’s radar NOW and try to get an offer early. In other words, get realistic NOW. Consider JuCo your target and go after it. JuCo shouldn’t be considered your safe, fallback option. Do your homework, and if it’s a good offer take it. Offers are going to be fewer and father between than in prior years, for all except the elite recruits. 

It seems like some JUCOs in TX field JV teams and others don’t or don’t list them. I assume you ask which team you are being recruited for or is this fairly normal so more kids get PT?

@adbono posted:

I think 2022 recruiting classes are going to be smaller too. Especially for 4 year D1 mid-majors. There is going to be a huge shuffle of the deck in December 2020 and cards will fly all over the room. When the dust settles lots of players will have moved down a notch if they want to continue to play ; P5 players down to D1 mid-majors, D1 mid-major players to D2, etc. So the specific advice I would give a 2022 is to target JuCos NOW. Go to on campus camps & showcases NOW. Get on someone’s radar NOW and try to get an offer early. In other words, get realistic NOW. Consider JuCo your target and go after it. JuCo shouldn’t be considered your safe, fallback option. Do your homework, and if it’s a good offer take it. Offers are going to be fewer and father between than in prior years, for all except the elite recruits. 

My '22 is taking this to heart. Bird in the hand....

I'm curious as to the shuffle of the deck you mention - are you anticipating another suspension/postponement of play that would give players another year of eligibility, thereby reducing the size of future classes? 

@OskiSD posted:

My '22 is taking this to heart. Bird in the hand....

I'm curious as to the shuffle of the deck you mention - are you anticipating another suspension/postponement of play that would give players another year of eligibility, thereby reducing the size of future classes? 

I’m talking about roster cuts that will occur at the end of fall semester. Let’s use Texas State, a D1 mid-major as an example. There will be over 53 players in the baseball program this fall - hoping to make a (say 40 man) roster. A couple will redshirt but approximately 10 will be cut. If they want to keep playing they will have to find a new place - likely down a notch. 
And something similar will occur at every other of the 300 D1 programs, the 200 D2 programs and so on and so on. 

@Dallas2020 posted:

It seems like some JUCOs in TX field JV teams and others don’t or don’t list them. I assume you ask which team you are being recruited for or is this fairly normal so more kids get PT?

There are only a few Texas JuCos that field JV teams. So it’s not the norm and I would be cautious with the ones that do. It’s more a way to get more tuition $ for the school than it’s a way to get more PT for kids in the program. If you are being offered a scholarship you aren’t being recruited for a JV team. If you are being asked to pay your own way you might be. 

@adbono posted:

I’m talking about roster cuts that will occur at the end of fall semester. Let’s use Texas State, a D1 mid-major as an example. There will be over 53 players in the baseball program this fall - hoping to make a (say 40 man) roster. A couple will redshirt but approximately 10 will be cut. If they want to keep playing they will have to find a new place - likely down a notch. 
And something similar will occur at every other of the 300 D1 programs, the 200 D2 programs and so on and so on. 

Got it, thanks for clarifying. 

Want to offer up another real life JuCo example - this one has to do with players moving on to 4 year schools. In another thread, sometime back, someone posted that JuCo players rarely move on to D1 4 year programs. No evidence was presented to support this claim and many disputed its accuracy, including me. In 2019 my son was a freshman at a very good JuCo in Oklahoma. There were 34 players on the roster that year and none of them are still at that school. Here is where they have gone:                                   11 D1 (Creighton, K State, UTRGV, Radford,  Valpo, Western Carolina, Ark State, ULM, Oral Roberts - programs ranking between #22 and #204)                                                   11 D2 (University of Central Oklahoma, West Texas A& M - both ranked programs- SEOSU, SWOSU, Washburn, Southern Nazarene).                                                         1 NAIA (Oklahoma City University)                 2 transferred                                                      9 retired    (3 could have continued)                                                          All major contributors (and some minor ones) all had a chance to continue playing. One third of the roster advanced to D1.        One third of the roster advanced to D2.      One third of the roster stopped playing.     This is common with good JuCo teams and a representative sample of what to expect in a really good JuCo program.      

@adbono is spinning gold here.  All of it.  Yes, there are going to be hearts breaking widen open all over the country before xmas.  Stupid numbers of kids are getting ready to step foot on campus right now.  The moment they step on the practice field shortly thereafter and see how many players are gathered, they'll all suddenly become mathematicians and their stomachs will turn to knots.  They are still just 9 spots on the baseball field, right?

While there still is technically "plenty" of time for 2022s to find homes, I think it's something that every 2022 player and parent needs to purge from their heads.  Covid is not done; not even close.  if you're planning on 2022s having it any easier than 2021s, then you're plan needs to change.  College baseball starts in Jan/Feb.  If by some miracle, we have a working vaccine by then, it will not be in the hands of college baseball players by then, so there is good reason to be skeptical that college ball will happen this spring.  Many 2022s read the writing on the wall months ago and supercharged their recruiting plans.  The people who approached their recruiting as if there is no time to lose, stand to be in the best place when the dust settles.  Whenever that may be.

Having said that, if a 2022 gets an offer that he feels is good and he knows he could be happy playing there, I can't imagine not taking it.  It may be short of the goal/dream or even what the measurables/numbers say, but that doesn't mean it's not the right/best choice.

My 2021 son had legit interest from a couple D1 programs (the goal) when a great JUCO (the "fall back") offer came.  Quite possibly the best part of the offer was that it came with a 30-day time clock.  He committed after speaking with his top 2 D1 targets for their thoughts.  I am not kidding when I say that EVERY day I get more grateful that he "settled."  Of course, the reality is that he didn't settle at all.  He won and he won big time.  He has so many 2021 peers right now that are offer-less despite being good ball players with good measurables and playing on a good travel team.  I hear that some are sitting on offers that they feel are beneath them and want to keep rolling the dice.  I cannot tell you how happy I am that my son isn't in that boat.

In the past some kids have “won” by sitting on offers (that they thought were beneath them) and using them to leverage offers from “better” schools. The late offers from the “better” schools often don’t include baseball scholarship $, so the school isn’t invested in the player. In reality that school is a reach for that player - and the school is telling them that by not offering any baseball $. And often that player is gone from that school & that program by Christmas. So who really wins in that deal?....and I would recommend that strategy based on current circumstances.  People have to recognize that market conditions have changed. The NCAA ruling that (stupidity) gave all current players an additional year of eligibility created a market imbalance (too much supply of players vs the availability of roster spots) that will last for 5 years. It will impact rosters at every level of college play. I saw a 2021 JuCo roster online the other day. 40 players are listed on the roster - and all 40 are freshmen. How many 2022 recruits do you think they will need? Not very many! I’m telling you....it’s gonna be hard to find a place to play if you are a HS grad in ‘21 & ‘22. It’s time to get realistic right now. I find it laughable that many players and parents think they are too good for Junior College. From a baseball perspective it would be more accurate to say that they aren’t good enough. 

I really think a majority of JUCO’s are going to have 80 players in Fall Camps in 2021.  It was already trending that way but due to the Pandemic that’s the way it’s going to go.  35 players on JUCO Varsity, 45 on JUCO JV and they will fill dorms that way and avoid going out of business

I am not at all sure that JUCO is the direction I would recommend at this time.  I’d look towards D2/D3/NAIA

@3and2Fastball posted:

I really think a majority of JUCO’s are going to have 80 players in Fall Camps in 2021.  It was already trending that way but due to the Pandemic that’s the way it’s going to go.  35 players on JUCO Varsity, 45 on JUCO JV and they will fill dorms that way and avoid going out of business

I am not at all sure that JUCO is the direction I would recommend at this time.  I’d look towards D2/D3/NAIA

I think 80 is an exaggeration. Some JuCos will have 60 in the fall. Which is too many but at least they are all freshmen and sophomores. Do you think the numbers are gonna be any better at D2/D3/NAIA?!? Let me assure you that they won’t. In fact they will be worse - especially at D3 & NAIA schools. AND there will be way more proven players - upperclassmen that have already performed at the college level. Good luck taking one of their spots. 

@adbono posted:

I think 80 is an exaggeration. Some JuCos will have 60 in the fall. Which is too many but at least they are all freshmen and sophomores. Do you think the numbers are gonna be any better at D2/D3/NAIA?!? Let me assure you that they won’t. In fact they will be worse - especially at D3 & NAIA schools. AND there will be way more proven players - upperclassmen that have already performed at the college level. Good luck taking one of their spots. 

At this point it’s a prediction.  Again I’m talking about the Fall of 2021

We’ll see how it plays out.  No matter what I would not recommend that any kid attend a school that they weren’t legit recruited to play at.

The one aspect where I think you are right with JUCO’s is re scholarships.   If you are getting a full ride to play for a JUCO, or even getting 50% paid for, that can be a great situation to get into.  If you are not getting any money to attend a JUCO, you are most likely a dorm filler.

Re your last comment, the topic began with talking about borderline D1 kids.  I do believe a lot of those kids would be better off attending a D3 in the upcoming years, due to the changes in the college landscape upcoming.

I greatly respect your help here and insight, however please understand that your son’s experience at a JUCO in 2019 has very little to do with what the JUCO experience might be like in 2021 and 2022.  Everything is changing, and changing very quickly.

@3and2Fastball posted:

At this point it’s a prediction.  Again I’m talking about the Fall of 2021

We’ll see how it plays out.  No matter what I would not recommend that any kid attend a school that they weren’t legit recruited to play at.

The one aspect where I think you are right with JUCO’s is re scholarships.   If you are getting a full ride to play for a JUCO, or even getting 50% paid for, that can be a great situation to get into.  If you are not getting any money to attend a JUCO, you are most likely a dorm filler.

Re your last comment, the topic began with talking about borderline D1 kids.  I do believe a lot of those kids would be better off attending a D3 in the upcoming years, due to the changes in the college landscape upcoming.

I greatly respect your help here and insight, however please understand that your son’s experience at a JUCO in 2019 has very little to do with what the JUCO experience might be like in 2021 and 2022.  Everything is changing, and changing very quickly.

My sons JuCo experience still applies when comparing to 21 & 22 in many respects. It didn’t happen by accident. We did our homework. First of all, he was recruited and was given a scholarship -so the school was invested. Next, we were told on his recruiting visit that if he committed no other players would be recruited at his position. This promise was lived up to and my son started for 2 years. We had already done historical roster research so we knew that this school didn’t over recruit and there wasn’t much turnover in the roster. I had already researched the academic side too and learned that this school paid more attention to that than some others. There were 12 Academic All-Americans on that team (including my son) and team GPA was 3.17. I had also researched the HC and learned that he had a great reputation. He was known for being old school, fair, hard nosed, and caring about his players. All that turned out to be true as well. When it comes down to it, every program begins and ends with the HC. If the HC is a good man, and consistently does the right thing, odds are it will be a good experience for your son - and that’s the case at every level of college ball. The reverse is also true. Nothing has changed about any of those things. Most people that make bad decisions don’t do enough research on the front end. 

I do agree that borderline D1 kids would be better off going D3 - but that was just as true 3 years ago as it is now. 

The bottom line is that homework has to be done EVERYWHERE.  Large rosters aren't exclusive to any division and every program will see some inflation due to Covid.  And yes, some of it will be cut before xmas break causing all kinds of problems.  My 2021 son was picked up by a fantastic JUCO program - all around.  The team GPA is right around 3.50 year in and year out and the coach was clear that he is all about keeping his rosters realistic and manageable.  He has never had more than 35 on his roster but is reluctantly going with 39 this year as a temporary measure associated with Covid.  He is very hands on with both baseball and education and understands that the more players on his roster, the less effective he can be. During the visit, we asked all the tough questions that had not already been answered.  My son was fortunate to get athletic money.  All things considered, I can't imagine my son attending any program over the next couple years with zero athletic money.  While money isn't a guarantee of anything, I am terrified of those accepting walk on offers right now.  That is, unless you've had extremely specific conversations with the coach and have substantial line of sight to playing time and/or future money.

Adbono and Danj:

Since 1989, I have observed the Northern California JC programs.

Specifically the Santa Rosa JC [academic rated #8 in the Nation].

My son played at SRJC and the team was #3 in the State.

The current alumni includes the Baltimore Orioles Manager and his Bench Coach; the Assistant to GM of the San Diego Padres; the Brewers Hitting Coach; a Detroit Tiger ML player and over 400 College grads.

Bob

It's correct to "do your homework".  Learn what you can. Study the rosters of prior years. Know the other commits. Learn the reputation of the coach. But what can  you really know? I think most parents are kidding themselves that they can "figure it out". Hopefully you have developed some relationships with people you trust that are currently connected to the level your son is looking at. They are your best advisors.

At the end of the day, it's a draw of cards from the deck. Some people's starting hands are better than others. Best you can do is for your son to know what his goals are, and what the outcomes could be for the level he is reaching for.

All generalization above, of course.

What a lot of great advice. We are thrilled to not be in the "waiting for an offer " boat. We did out homework but in the end were just very lucky. He visited several D1 schools including HA/IVY but everyone wanted to see him play first. Over a 3 day span we visited Minnesota, did a PG pitcher showcase(where he threw 90) and a PBR event. We though it was too many pitches over 3 days but now glad we did it.

I day later the Virus closed everything down. Got offered by 3 schools and next week and jumped on it.

Of course we discussed waiting/playing etc, but not are so damn lucky to have committed. Lots of good players are just stuck.