Upcoming Draft

They (scouts) always ask if the player has an advisor, my opinion is that it is not necessary at this time. You may be contacted by the MLB area scout, we found the one here to be very helpful in answering questions.

Familiarize yourself with the draft and how it works and that the first 10 rounds is now based upon slotting (has a value), in other words each spot has more or less of a value placed upon it.

How will you know where your son is viewed as a potential higher pick would show up in who is coming to watch him play and how often, and also the agencies that would be contacting your son for business. If Scott Boras comes knocking at the door you know he might be a high pick!

Everyone has different opinions on signing out of HS. My opinion is that it should NOT be about the money, if the player really wants to play proball and drafted in a round he is comfortable with, then go for it. Be familiar with the pay scale for each level and the ML scholarhship plan and how that works. be prepared that you may have to help him just as you would if he were in college. Ask yourself, is my player ready to join the workforce at 17,18. Discuss what he would do in the off season. Off season training is almost like a full time job, can he stick with that and can he afford to pay the proper person to help him get stronger and stay healthy in season.

Keep in mind for most HS players it could be 4-5 years in the milb system, while if he was going to a college program which is competitve, while getting an education, that might be a better option.
If he is a position player, it might be better to get his at bats in college, summer, fall rather than in milb. college pitchers have to keep in mind that any injury will most likely reduce their worth come theri next draft day.

Hope this helps, feel free to pm if you need.

Here's one resource:
http://www.baseballamerica.com

2012 slot values:
http://www.baseballamerica.com...ws/2012/2613398.html

A consult with an adviser might also be able to help you estimate where he could go in the draft.

Best of luck.

when you can ascertain how high you might be drafted then the advisor comes into the picture

Thanks for the responses
If I understand correctly, the need to check with an advisor will become more clear throughout the season. If he garners high attention then it may be necessary.
I'm still not sure though how do you know where he may be drafted?
Is that something that a scout would divulge?
Or something that an advisor would know?

quote:

Originally posted by WapakDad2013:

I'm still not sure though how do you know where he may be drafted?

You never will know!

If this helps, out of HS son was projected (key work here) for rounds 6-10. He was never drafted. Out of college it was late first round early second, close to projection.

Scouts do not draft players, their job is to turn in the information to their organization. They could or may tell a player he will be a first day pick or second day, anything else would be irresponsible to tell you what might happen.

As I stated if a player projects first 10 rounds most likely an advisor will have be calling or show up at game to discuss your son's future.

Sit back relax, and enjoy your son's last season, what may not be clear now might be (or might not) by late May.

Have agent/advisors contacted you? It's their job to know who the best draft prospects are. Nearly all of the top prospects are contacted by advisors. They (the potential good draft picks) don't have to go out of their way to find an advisor. In fact they usually choose between many who want them.

Are there any home visits scheduled with MLB scouts? If not it's too early to think a player might be a top 10 round draft pick out of high school.

If you are asked to take the drug test, you can assume you are among the possible players considered in the early rounds.

Are you ranked among the top players? Most every high draft pick is!

Have you played against the best national level competition? Most of the earlier draft picks have!

Have you done any tests (eyes,psychological,etc.)? Again these can be clues to the level of interest organizations might have. However, you can't always go by this.

Has anyone asked for documented medical history? This is a sign of interest.

So, no one can tell you what slot you might be drafted or if you will be drafted... There are many signs regarding being drafted in the early rounds.

If you fall into the later round category, it's unlikely you need an advisor.

Also every player drafted (any round) needs to be turned in. In other words you need to be listed.

The questionnaires are a good sign, but it's important to understand just how many players get these things.

I've always described draft day as being a day of disappointment for most people.

When the spring season starts, you will have a much better idea. If there are a good number of scouts at your games it means there is serious interest. If you see someone from the MLB Scouting Bureau that's qnother good sign. If you start noticing cross checkers at the games... You are a "potential" top ten round pick, provided they like what they see enough. If you see Scouting Directors at your games, you are a potential first couple round pick.

None of the above is set in stone. It's just the way it works for most people. There are always exceptions.

As far as securing an advisor IMO the thought should be... If you have to go look for one... You probably don't need one yet! When and if you really need one... They will be all over you. On the other hand, it probably won't hurt to get one if you want.

Best of luck!

Great insight PG...this post (or something like it) should be placed in the general article section for future reference.

For the record, my son was contacted last year by many potential advisors. As a family we decided he should go to college, so we set basically a second round slot as our target. He wasn't nearly that good, so he wasn't drafted.

The slotting system has changed the game in how the teams approach the draft, so there aren't any 10th round plus guys signing for more than $100K.

So even if your son is contacted by a bunch of potential advisors it doesn't mean he'll be drafted, unless he lists $100K as his signing bonus target.

quote:

Originally posted by JMoff:
The slotting system has changed the game in how the teams approach the draft, so there aren't any 10th round plus guys signing for more than $100K.

Sorry . . . that's not exactly so.

389th pick for the Braves, Connor Lien got$375k
390th pick for the Cardinals, Max Foody got $385k
440th pick for the Mets, Chris Flexen got $374k
475th pick for the Blue Jays, Ryan Borucki got $426k
577th pick for the Yankees, Brady Lail got $225k

. . .and there's quite a few more. So, the baseball clubs can still pay well for a player beyond the 10th round if they've got the budget for it and depending on what they do in the first 10 rounds.

Thought I read somewhere that the bonus amount in excess of $100K that players drafted beyond the 10th round get counts toward the teams total bonus pool.

Go Dawgs, that's my understanding also.


So for the examples above, those teams probably paid lower than slot bonuses in other rounds in order to make up the difference. If not, they faced a tax and possible loss of draft pick. I haven't read about any teams facing those penalties after the 2012 draft.

Lots of maneuvering with the new system.

quote:

So for the examples above, those teams probably paid lower than slot bonuses in other rounds in order to make up the difference. If not, they faced a tax and possible loss of draft pick. I haven't read about any teams facing those penalties after the 2012 draft.

Lots of maneuvering with the new system.

Yes thats how I understood it.I looked at signing bonuses of teams in top rounds and several guys took below the normal bonus amt.so they had money later.College seniors signed in higer rounds to do that.

I read where there were some 66 seniors taken in the top ten rounds, about three times the norm of the last few years. I heard of a tenth rounder senior who got $22000 so that kind of manipulation left money for certain other players in the lower rounds.

One of the reasons why the FA signings have been so crazy is because of the budgets, this has allowed for more $$ to be spent on players that have proved themselves as the real deal.

I think you guys got the right idea about the new draft and how it works, but the OP was inquiring about how one would know where one might be drafted and PG nailed it in his post.

even after youy think you know your approximate draft position----there is no such thing as a lock

quote:

Originally posted by Truman:

quote:

Originally posted by JMoff:
The slotting system has changed the game in how the teams approach the draft, so there aren't any 10th round plus guys signing for more than $100K.

Sorry . . . that's not exactly so.

389th pick for the Braves, Connor Lien got$375k
390th pick for the Cardinals, Max Foody got $385k
440th pick for the Mets, Chris Flexen got $374k
475th pick for the Blue Jays, Ryan Borucki got $426k
577th pick for the Yankees, Brady Lail got $225k

. . .and there's quite a few more. So, the baseball clubs can still pay well for a player beyond the 10th round if they've got the budget for it and depending on what they do in the first 10 rounds.

There used to be many of these signings and now there simply aren't that many for the reasons posted (it counts against the cap in the top 10 rounds, and you lose the value of any pick not signed).

You have quoted $1,285K total dollars over the salary cap for last years draft. I know one player from AZ in 2011 who was signed for ~$500K over last year's slot spot in the 20th+ round. I'm sure there were countless others. My son played HS ball with a kid who signed in the 37th round for $375K back in '09. You just don't see that anymore.

Nor do you see it if your number is $750K.

I also know of another AZ kid signed for $200K this past year in the later rounds. I'm not saying it doesn't happen, but it isn't second round money. It's 4-8th round money.

Teams are more likely to draft kids in slots they know they will sign in. Some will sign a 4th year senior with thier #1 and play the lottery on the rest of the draft, figuring they can overpay on all the other picks, but fundamentally the system has converged to a pay for performance system, which is what it should be.

Secretly, I hope to have a college senior drafted as a #1 pick and offered $50K for a $1.3m slot. Then I'll get to negotiate the value of his scholarship to graduate school versus their offer and the lost $1.3m of slot money if he doesn't sign. I wonder what that would be like? I suspect that never happens since they prenegotiate bonuses with all those kids, but still...

quote:

Secretly, I hope to have a college senior drafted as a #1 pick and offered $50K for a $1.3m slot. Then I'll get to negotiate the value of his scholarship to graduate school versus their offer and the lost $1.3m of slot money if he doesn't sign. I wonder what that would be like? I suspect that never happens since they prenegotiate bonuses with all those kids, but still...

LOL yeah perfect scenario.

But they make sure your going to take what they offer,those seniors are not negotiating.

But I imagine a good senior could get 50,000 to sign in an early round.

333 Seniors were drafted last year, 69 of them in the first 10 rounds. 5 Seniors in the 1st 10 rounds got slot money, none got more than slot. The rest of the Seniors got well below slot money; 17 got $5,000 or less. Only 2 Seniors drafted after the 10th round got any money ($100k; $10k). The one Senior drafted in the 1st round got 90% of slot.

Seniors just have no leverage to negotiate and so, they're being used under the new rules and budgets to pay other draftees more than slot, including some of those players drafted after the 10th round.

quote:

Originally posted by Truman:
Seniors just have no leverage to negotiate and so, they're being used under the new rules and budgets to pay other draftees more than slot, including some of those players drafted after the 10th round.

Truman agree with everything you said except my understanding was players signed for less than slot after the 10th round did not "benefit" the team. For example sign 30th round guy for $10K and 29th round guy for $110K and the net is the team is over the cap by $10K. I wouldn't swear to that. The obvious benefit to the team is to spend less money, which is a good thing for them.

I agree there is no leverage for seniors, but someday, some team with the top pick is going to agree pre-draft with a senior on well under slot with the #1 and hope to load up their farm system in the next 5-6 rounds. That #1 is going to have second thoughts and the game will be on.

Appel will be an interesting data point...

quote:

Originally posted by JMoff:

Truman agree with everything you said except my understanding was players signed for less than slot after the 10th round did not "benefit" the team. For example sign 30th round guy for $10K and 29th round guy for $110K and the net is the team is over the cap by $10K. I wouldn't swear to that. The obvious benefit to the team is to spend less money, which is a good thing for them.

I don't understand what you mean by " did not "benefit" the team"???

After the 10 round a team can pay 100k or less without it having to be applied to their budget. Paying more than $100k, then that amount it's applied to their budget ( budget = sum of the 10 round slot money).

Take the Huston Astros who had a budget of $11,177,700. They paid out $11,485,200 (all was in the 10 rounds as they paid nothing to any of their selection beyond the 10th round). They spend $307,500 more than their budget that would result in a penalty, which is a percentage of that overage (75% in this case . . . and the percentage goes to 100% + loss of picks depending on how much they're over). If they has paid $100k to every pick after the 10th round, none of it would have been applied to their budget.

So, in your scenario, the amount paid to the 30th round guy has no affect on anything. For the 29th round guy that got $110k, that amount would have to be applied to the teams budget. Whether that amount is over a team's budget depends on the total they've spent elsewhere.

The Astro's 219th was a Senior and was given $100k where the slot was $151,400; their 309th pick was a Senior and paid $20k for a slot that was set at $125k. They had three picks that were paid much greater than slot: 41st pick got $2.5 million for a slot value of $1,258,700; the 129th pick got $1,850,000 for a slot value of $360K; the 189th pick got $450k for a slot value of $202k. They got most of their extra cash to spend for these guys from their number 1 pick that settled for $4.8 million instead of the slot amount of $7.2 million.

But some of it also comes from others like the Seniors that were way underpaid for the slot they were selected in. The Seniors could have been selected after the 10th round and still gotten what they got and without having any of it applied to the team's budget. But, they're playing a game where if someone is selected in the 219th or 309th pick and doesn't sign, then none of that slot money is lost to the team as it cannot then be used for some other player. If a 10 round selection does not sign, the team can not used any of the slot money towards anyone else. So they use Seniors who are sure to sign for a low amount to preserve the availability of the slot money that it is available to negotiate with other picks that may take more to sign.

quote:

Originally posted by JMoff:
I agree there is no leverage for seniors, but someday, some team with the top pick is going to agree pre-draft with a senior on well under slot with the #1 and hope to load up their farm system in the next 5-6 rounds. That #1 is going to have second thoughts and the game will be on.

Appel will be an interesting data point...

We'll see what Appel is able to get this year. Personally, I don't feel he'll get anything better than he was offered last year . . . because he IS a Senior now.

James Ramsey, the 23rd pick of the draft signed for 1.6M in a 1.77M slot.

I think he was rankrd (by BA) was 56?

I will bet he wasn't one bit unhappy.

quote:

Originally posted by Truman:

I don't understand what you mean by " did not "benefit" the team"???

All I was trying to say is if a team signs a post 10th round pick under slot, it doesn't allow them to spend it elsewhere. In my example, signing a player for $10K in the 30th round doesn't mean $90K of cap money is cleared to be spent elsewhere.

Your examples indicate we are in violent agreement.

In the case of Appel, I agree with your opinion, I think he probably had the best baseball offer he'll see on the table last year and turned it down. Now all he'll have is that degree from Stanford in his pocket. What could that be worth?

In my original example and to augment your example, the Astros could draft him #1 with a pre-agreed bonus. They can then draft "hard to sign for slot" guys the rest of the draft, expecting to spend what they save on him as over slot signs in other rounds.

The only fly in the ointment would be if he changes his mind (extremely unlikely). Then the whole draft would blow up on the Astros as they wouldn't have the money to pay all the "hard to sign for slot" guys and they risk not being able to sign several top picks.

This strategy is probably more solid for a MLB team with a college senior as the pawn instead of a HS senior, JC player or a college Junior as they have the opportunity to negotiate with more leverage. Still in my hypothetical example, he could ask for that extra $500K and threaten to go to medical school if he doesn't get it.

I believe Appel will get at least as much as last year,plusa phenomenal degree from Stanford.

He has the body and the talent,and they will pay him.

That is my prediction.

quote:

Originally posted by JMoff:

quote:

Originally posted by Truman:

I don't understand what you mean by " did not "benefit" the team"???

All I was trying to say is if a team signs a post 10th round pick under slot, it doesn't allow them to spend it elsewhere. In my example, signing a player for $10K in the 30th round doesn't mean $90K of cap money is cleared to be spent elsewhere.

Your examples indicate we are in violent agreement.

Indeed.

And just to be clear . . . I would simply say there is no "slot money" for post 10th round picks. The 100k is an amount has nothing to do with the budget and is simply the amount that can be paid without any kind of penalty or having it applied towards the budget. So, of course, none of it would be transferable.

quote:

Originally posted by Truman:Sorry . . . that's not exactly so.

389th pick for the Braves, Connor Lien got$375k
390th pick for the Cardinals, Max Foody got $385k
440th pick for the Mets, Chris Flexen got $374k
475th pick for the Blue Jays, Ryan Borucki got $426k
577th pick for the Yankees, Brady Lail got $225k

. . .and there's quite a few more. So, the baseball clubs can still pay well for a player beyond the 10th round if they've got the budget for it and depending on what they do in the first 10 rounds.

Borucki could have gone in an earlier round, but had an injury so he was gone for a lot of the season. There was a story of around 20 MLB clubs represented (higher than cross checkers) just to watch his first rehab game which was 25 pitches in a JV game.

Secondly, aren't clubs allowed to use money from guys that declined in earlier rounds for players after those who declined?

quote:

Originally posted by bigheat27-42:
Secondly, aren't clubs allowed to use money from guys that declined in earlier rounds for players after those who declined?

Under the new CBA, if a team doesn't sign a player in rounds 1-10, their cap alotment is reduced by the amount of the slot that didn't sign.

Without this rule, the Astros could draft a player they have no intention of signing (like the owner's nephew) with the #1 pick just so they could use the $7.2m elsewhere.

quote:

Originally posted by bigheat27-42:

Secondly, aren't clubs allowed to use money from guys that declined in earlier rounds for players after those who declined?

Answer: NO

. . . as JMoff well explained.

But the difference between the assigned slot amount and what's paid to a pick can indeed be used for other players where ever the team chooses. For examples, a pick in a $125,000 slot signs for $5,000 means the team can then use $120,000 for some other pick.