Va. Pitchers' MPH in Jupiter

Bear in mind these are peak velocities on fastballs. More typical or "cruising" speeds will run lower.

You do see kids who are sometimes worn out at the end of fall and overdue for their off-season shut down, so folks can say they had an off day or whatever. But this is at least some objective indication of where kids really throw.

It also shows how few of the very high MPH guys are really out there -- though I do think this varies year to year, and I know a few years back we had a run of 90+ guys in the Richmond area alone.

Regardless of velocity, most of the pitchers on this list are very good pitchers and will succeed at the next level. Having seen most of these guys or coached a couple of them, all of them have good things ahead of them in the next couple of years.

Pretty interesting post when you consider there are a number of pitchers listed, throwing in the mid 80's, headed to Division 1 schools in the fall of 2010.

It helps to illustrate that you don't have to throw 90+ to get to the next level....

However, watching my son compete this fall in his first year of college baseball, with similiar velocity as some of those mentioned (86-88), it was quite obvious that the coaches heavily emphasized location, location, location.

If you can get out's, you'll stay on the bump.....

I've seen a number of these guy's throw as well and agree they'll be fine at the next level and are still quite young with great potential....

Agree FD, my son started college this year and he throws mid 80's, but has good location and control. That is why the coach is thinking of putting him in the starting rotation in the Spring. Control and location is where it is at!!!

Actually my main point in posting was to point out how few guys there are this year who really do throw very hard. It seems to be a down year in that regard.

But to respond to your thought, an awful lot of D-1 college baseball is indeed played in that 86-88 range.

That being said, you can mislead yourself in both directions here.

On the one hand, clearly teams will prefer guys who can run it up there harder. They are in shorter supply and thus they have the better bargaining power. With higher MPH, you have a bigger margin for error as a pitcher when it comes to your off-speed stuff and your consistency with locating. Still it is true that a lot of the innings are played with lesser MPH and for those pitchers, out of necessity the focus has to be on location and mixing effective secondary pitches.

On the other hand, understand too that guys who sit 86-88 are often guys who can peak at 92. When a kid peaks at 86, he's likely sitting 81-83. If you're throwing at that speed, you'd better have a Jamie Moyer change up and Greg Maddux location, because metal bats will turn your fastball around at a lot higher speed.

The above list was PEAK velocities, not where pitchers throw their typical fastballs. Subtract 2-4 mph to find the typical range.

What each of these players hopes is that they have not yet reached their respective ceilings. Whether they have or haven't is part of the art of scouting and no one has a crystal ball to predict everyone perfectly.

Basically a junior who can cruise above 80 has a shot. If he cruises above 85 he's going to have choices. If he can top 90 now and then he'll be able to drive a hard bargain and aim for a top conference. For a senior, if you don't sit 85 or higher, you'd better fit in the "crafty lefty" category or have some other asset that makes you stand out, because otherwise it's hard for scouts to tell all those stocky RHP's out there apart.

Also understand that there are a lot of college scholarship pitchers who almost never actually pitch for their college teams. They never develop as hoped and they struggle to get out of innings. So just getting a scholarship is not having your ship come in, by any measure. Some of these guys will see their %'s cut year to year, even eliminated, and some of them may be cut or pressured to transfer or even move to the club or JV team.

There is never a time when you can afford to stop striving to get better.

I might have more than a passing interest to learn what kind of velocity (and overall pitchability) a hitter might face in a conference like the ACC?

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Actually my main point in posting was to point out how few guys there are this year who really do throw very hard. It seems to be a down year in that regard.

I would tend to agree, but would you happen to have this same information for the 2008 and 2009 classes at the same Jupiter event? It would be interesting to see the comparison.

Sometimes, I wonder if I even understand the definition of a hard thrower. Throwing 90's (even low 90's) in High School fit my definition as a hard thrower... But recently, I saw a post from PG Staff that they consider 94-95 and better as "hard throwing", not low 90's....

The following are a few 2009 Virginia Pitchers with peak velocities the summer after their junior year as rising seniors. I watched most of these pitchers during that time frame and feel comfortable these peak velocities are accurate. Some of the numbers are supported by Perfect Game and I have been told that several have reached velocities an excess of these numbers.

However, I can not attest to their velocities in Jupiter of their senior season as a comparative to the 2010's that you have mentioned.

Blake Hauser - 93

Mike Kent - 91

Ethan Carter - 90

Tyler Webb (LHP) - 90 (**)

Jacob Mayers - 90

Kyle Haynes - 90

Brock Wilson - 89

Cameron Giannini(sp?) - 89

Ryan Moriarity(sp) - 89

I'm sure there are plenty more in the 87-88 range and maybe there were more in the 90's?... can't say I have them all....

It seems to me, the class of 2009 was pretty solid and I know the class of 2008 was at least equally as good....

I'm sure you can elaborate more on the class of 2008 Virginia pitchers.

Are the classes of 2008 and 2009 "out of the norm"(?) or are they "the normal standard"?

** This is a Perfect Game reported number. This young man was recovering/rehabbing from TJ during this time frame and pitched in the 86-88 range when I saw him.

quote:

There is never a time when you can afford to stop striving to get better.

Man that is the gospel truth!!

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But recently, I saw a post from PG Staff that they consider 94-95 and better as "hard throwing", not low 90's....

If I said that, it was a stupid statement on my part. 90 is outstanding velocity for a high school pitcher.

Only when seperating the very top of the draftable pitchers would there be an area to consider low 90s guys something other than power or high velocity pitchers. So regarding the draft, guys that top out at 90-91 are considered average velocity. Guys that throw 94-95 are considered plus velocity.

In most every case, high school pitchers drafted in the first couple rounds will top out in the mid 90 range. Especially if they are right handed. There are never very many of these types who I would consider high velocity guys, even in a good year.

It doesn't mean they are better, but it does mean they throw harder and they are likely to go higher in the draft. I suppose that is still confusing.

These velocities are the peak velocities that these pitchers reached at THIS PARTICULAR EVENT. I really don't think that these MPH are necessarily representative of the PEAK velocity that these pitchers have reached this summer/fall. My son for example typically throws a couple of MPH faster than he peaked at at this event. Whether it was a long season, an off game, or whatever, he just didn't throw as hard that day. Not really too worried about it as he got outs, had great control, and pitched a heck of a game. To me, I think it's more important that these guys know HOW to pitch, so when they don't have their fastest stuff, they can still get the job done.

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So regarding the draft

There you have it, in the post I mentioned PG Staff was referring to "hard throwers" as qualified by early round draft picks...

As for 2009, I think FD's observations show that 2010 is down relative to 2009. Also, I think the numbers for Hauser and Carter are low. I saw Hauser at 93-94 in Legion play and I think Carter got higher than 90 in the Aflac game if nowhere else. And, add Scoggin top to your 2009 grad 90+ list the summer before his senior year.

Not that it's a trend or anything, but there were more than a few 90+ guys across the state in each of the 2008 and 2007 classes.

Just off the top of my head, without even checking back, I can think of these guys who were consistently touching 90 or higher in those VA classes:

2007 -- Ramirez, Wilson, Tierney, Hahn, Wright

2008 -- Marrs, Shaban, O'Brien, Buran, Erickson, McCann, Long, O'Conner, Roberts, not to mention Hultzen and Hoes (lived in MD, played in VA)

I know there were others I just cannot come up with right at the moment.

Maybe there are other 2010's who weren't at Jupiter this year, but usually you do see them there if they exist.

You can add Morey (Cape Henry/UVA) and Levitt (Cape Henery/ Pitt CC ) to 2007

Sorry and no disrespect to anyone BUT this How hard does he throw is what is ruining baseball.

Guys, the name of the game is to allow the batter's to get themselves out. Pitcher's responsibility is to change speeds and keep the hitters off-balance.

For the love of GOD will someone cast a spell on this darn radar guns already!

Coach - I agree to some degree, but there has to be some baseline measurement for the sake of comparision. Why choose the end of the long season to do that baseline...makes no sense and send the wrong signals to the kids. My biggest issue is when it is the only measurement. Most importantly my son (listed above) totally agrees with you Coach. His attitude is who cares how hard I'm throwing if I'm throwing a no hit, shutout game (which he did in Jupiter) and it is over in 5 innings. His current pitching coach and future college pitching coach is telling him in order of importance: location, movement, velocity. That advise is all over this website, and it is good advise. I've seen too many flame throwers throw a rope that gets crushed, or walk players. Velocity is not everything, but it is "top 3".

Coach,

You bring up some very good points. But if, how hard they throw, is ruining baseball... We will need to get all those scouts and college recruiters to quit buying those radar guns that check how hard someone can throw.

Changing speeds and keeping hitters off balance becomes important to most all pitchers. But until they start drafting those soft throwing guys ahead of the hard throwers, the radar gun, showing how hard they throw, will be around and people who make decisions will be talking about those kids who throw the hardest.

Truth is, it's the combination of what you mentioned and other things along with velocity that is most important. I think the difference in opinion is based on importance. The importance of winning the game today or the importance of the individual player's future. Both are important, but not always the same thing.

Will the pitchers who allow hitters to get themselves out in high school, still get hitters out in college or professional baseball? When the hitters get better will the same thing work? Maybe, maybe not! We can't really grade "keeping hitters off balance" or "the ability to allow hitters to get themself out" We can't compare that to the Major League level or even top college level. However, we do know what average MLB velocity is and can grade a pitcher and his other abilities based on that knowledge.

Now, when a pitcher shows decent enough velocity, we can glue in on the other areas that are so very important. It's just a different way of looking at things. Right or wrong, it's just the way things are. The few exemptions to the rule, are not enough to change things.

Besides we own about 100 radar guns and they might be worthless if a spell was cast on them.

fenway,

In some ways I could make a good argument that velocity is not only in the top 3, but it is a proven #1 with everything else being a distant second. This would not be based on winning or what really is most important, it would be based on the Major League draft every year.

We all know that it is possible for mid, even low 80s pitchers to be successful at nearly ant level. However, I would challenge anyone to give me a name of a low to mid 80s high school pitcher (no matter how good he might be) who has been drafted in any early round.

For sure Major League organizations want the very best pitchers and spend millions trying to get them. In nearly every case, this search ends up with the high velocity guys being selected first. We simply have to follow the draft to find this out.

We all know that velocity by itself is not enough. However, it is still far above things like location and movement when it comes to the draft. Great location won't make someone an early pick, great movement won't make someone an early pick. Great velocity will get a pitcher drafted and only then will things like other pitches, location and movement dictate just how high the pitcher is drafted. I've seen kids who have trouble throwing strikes go in the first few rounds.

Colleges would look at this a bit differently, but not as much as one might think. Google Jason Neighborgall or Colt Griffin.

Both those pitchers would have been very successful if they excelled at location. They didn't! But they were drafted long before those who became much more successful. Sometimes those high velocity guys are Zach Greinke or Justin Verlander. Sometimes they become Jason Neighborgall or Colt Griffin. The only thing they all share is the ability to light up a radar gun. Then the other things separate them.

A college coach told me at the Arizona Fall Classic “ we are looking for kids who can get outs, if it was just velocity we would line them up and pick the ones that throw the hardest”

MLB scouts more of less do this because they figure once they get a guy who can throw consistently in the 90’s they can teach them to “pitch” I may be mistaken, but now days I think most kids throwing in the 90’s probably can pitch reasonably well anyway. The higher the level of the college program the harder you have to throw. So there are lots of places for kids in college throwing mid 80’s, you just need to find the place. It is just part of the process.

So we go full circle back to the radar guns, at least for draftable kids, and ones going to high level D1’s. PG I think your 100 guns are safe for now.

The fact of the matter is the higher the velocity and the better the "stuff", then in general the larger margin of error for the pitcher. This can mean several things. For one, the pitcher can generally get away with worse control/command because the better stuff can hide some of those flaws.

It also often means that a pitcher will get more opportunities to fail. This is true because teams and scouts can dream about what the pitcher could become if he ever puts it all together. Look at Daniel Cabrera, former Oriole pitcher. As an O's fan, I suffered through about five years of his act, always thinking this could be the year or the start that he turns it around. He even started off really well one season (2007 maybe), but it became clearer and clearer that he wasn't going to cut it.

But the point is he got five years worth of MLB opportunities (plus his minor league experience/opportunities) because he could threw easy cheese (97+ with little effort) with a devastating slider.