I agree with jerseydad- I don't think the average velocities were low in Jupiter at all. First off, most pitchers down there threw perhaps 200 innings throughout the year and, honestly, after that much your arm just gets tired.
At every game that I saw down there, or played in, there was at least one guy easily in the upper-80's. And the 98, 97 and a bunch of the mid-90's speeds I saw also, and I don't think they were boosting the gun readings (Ie: Zumaya's 103 mph fastballs). One of our games featured probably 9 or 10 guys that were conceivably throwing upper-80's fastballs, and a handful of those guys broke 90 mph.
In essence, 268 guys that are mostly 17 years old, some even younger, throwing in excess of 88 mph. I don't really consider that "below average" at any level of baseball anywhere in the world.
Played a JV winterball team this weekend whose starter was gunned at 81 consistently on a stalker. Gun might have been at a bit of an angle but not much. He had decent command and an off speed pitch. He dominated our not so strong hitting JVs. Don't know what his max speed was. Parents from our team insisted he was throwing mid to high 80s.
JH,
200 innings this year, that's incredible and sad.JMO.
Question
If a HS senior is throwing 97-98, gets drafted, then spends 3-4 years in minor league, what happens to the velocity.
I would like to see where those velocities end up in May.
I have been studying velocities of HS and college players for a few years now. Most throwing mid upper 90's are now either not pitching due to injury or now 87-90 guys.
Is the lure of the D1 college scholarship and bonus money for first round pitchers forcing our young players to do more than they should?
200 innings this year, that's incredible and sad.JMO.
Question
If a HS senior is throwing 97-98, gets drafted, then spends 3-4 years in minor league, what happens to the velocity.
I would like to see where those velocities end up in May.
I have been studying velocities of HS and college players for a few years now. Most throwing mid upper 90's are now either not pitching due to injury or now 87-90 guys.
Is the lure of the D1 college scholarship and bonus money for first round pitchers forcing our young players to do more than they should?
While some guys do get hurt -- and the guys who pitch the longest are more likely to experience injuries at some point -- I don't think that's the explanation for what you see so commonly. I'll give you a different theory.
First of all, the MPH readings you always hear are guys' highest ever readings. Those are the "bragging numbers". So it shouldn't surprise you if you see them regularly pitching at lower speeds, once you're in a position to keep track of what they throw on a typical fastball. The fact is they've always thrown most of their fastballs 2-4 mph lower than their peak speed. And some days they don't have their best stuff anyway.
Second: There was a time when throwing 95+ was enough to blow away even MLB hitters. But that time is gone. Sure, a 95+ fastball is an asset, but you still have to PITCH.
I think as pitchers progress, you see them forced to learn the art of pitching, not just woofing it in there (often over the heart of the plate). Many pro pitching coaches will counsel a guy to ease off a few MPH and focus on hitting spots. Or maybe to focus more on movement and less on all out velocity. (But then you can pump up once in a while if you want to.)
This also helps a guy pace himself through a season that is longer than the amateur season, and that involves pitching every fifth day (vs. once a week in college or HS). And it teaches him how he can still survive one of those games when he just doesn't have his best stuff.
I think of Brad Penny in the All Star game this year. To my memory he has always been a 93-95 guy. But given a chance to show off for a 2-inning stint, he threw 100 mph repeatedly and blew guys away -- for a while, that is, until Vlad Guerrero took him deep.
What I took from that is that Penny is obviously capable of throwing 100, but he chooses not to. He paces himself, uses his off-speed stuff, and tries to maintain control (which for him can be a problem). And somewhere along the line, he may also have learned that if he just pumps it in there as hard as he can all the time, there are still guys who can hit him hard.
But the thing is, if you're Rick Porcello and you can top out at 98, then you can probably cruise at 93-94, and that makes you a hot prospect indeed. Or maybe he could go the Zumaya route and just throw 100+ for an inning per outing. So without question, his potential is greater than that of a guy who tops out at 92-93, since that would mean that guy probably cruises in the 88-90 range. That'll blow 'em away in high school and maybe in college, but if you're trying to make it to the bigs, you'd better have good off-speed stuff, movement and spot control
First of all, the MPH readings you always hear are guys' highest ever readings. Those are the "bragging numbers". So it shouldn't surprise you if you see them regularly pitching at lower speeds, once you're in a position to keep track of what they throw on a typical fastball. The fact is they've always thrown most of their fastballs 2-4 mph lower than their peak speed. And some days they don't have their best stuff anyway.
Second: There was a time when throwing 95+ was enough to blow away even MLB hitters. But that time is gone. Sure, a 95+ fastball is an asset, but you still have to PITCH.
I think as pitchers progress, you see them forced to learn the art of pitching, not just woofing it in there (often over the heart of the plate). Many pro pitching coaches will counsel a guy to ease off a few MPH and focus on hitting spots. Or maybe to focus more on movement and less on all out velocity. (But then you can pump up once in a while if you want to.)
This also helps a guy pace himself through a season that is longer than the amateur season, and that involves pitching every fifth day (vs. once a week in college or HS). And it teaches him how he can still survive one of those games when he just doesn't have his best stuff.
I think of Brad Penny in the All Star game this year. To my memory he has always been a 93-95 guy. But given a chance to show off for a 2-inning stint, he threw 100 mph repeatedly and blew guys away -- for a while, that is, until Vlad Guerrero took him deep.
What I took from that is that Penny is obviously capable of throwing 100, but he chooses not to. He paces himself, uses his off-speed stuff, and tries to maintain control (which for him can be a problem). And somewhere along the line, he may also have learned that if he just pumps it in there as hard as he can all the time, there are still guys who can hit him hard.
But the thing is, if you're Rick Porcello and you can top out at 98, then you can probably cruise at 93-94, and that makes you a hot prospect indeed. Or maybe he could go the Zumaya route and just throw 100+ for an inning per outing. So without question, his potential is greater than that of a guy who tops out at 92-93, since that would mean that guy probably cruises in the 88-90 range. That'll blow 'em away in high school and maybe in college, but if you're trying to make it to the bigs, you'd better have good off-speed stuff, movement and spot control
Thanks MD! 
Interesting.
2002 PG Woodbat
96 - 1
95 - 2
94 - 7
93 - 5
92 - 20
91 - 8
90 - 49
All the data I have.
I would assume the 2006 figures are higher because of higher attendance?
2002 PG Woodbat
96 - 1
95 - 2
94 - 7
93 - 5
92 - 20
91 - 8
90 - 49
All the data I have.
I would assume the 2006 figures are higher because of higher attendance?
CADad:
Thanks for the info, I hope you are correct.
Louisiana09
Thanks for the info, I hope you are correct.
Louisiana09
TPM,
The mid to high 90s out of college pitcher from our area spent spent some time in the minors learning how to pitch. I was on a business trip and got a chance to see him pitch a AAA game last season. He was around 90 with the max that I saw at 94. He and Zach Duke came into pro ball about the same time and faced each other. Zach was actually more polished despite being younger and made it to the majors much quicker.
The point is that although the scouts want to see the numbers on the gun, once they get into pro ball they generally teach starters how to back off and pitch about 4 mph below their max.
In other words, agree w/ Midlo Dad
The mid to high 90s out of college pitcher from our area spent spent some time in the minors learning how to pitch. I was on a business trip and got a chance to see him pitch a AAA game last season. He was around 90 with the max that I saw at 94. He and Zach Duke came into pro ball about the same time and faced each other. Zach was actually more polished despite being younger and made it to the majors much quicker.
The point is that although the scouts want to see the numbers on the gun, once they get into pro ball they generally teach starters how to back off and pitch about 4 mph below their max.
In other words, agree w/ Midlo Dad
jerseydad,
Wonder how old the 4 2009s are? Pretty impressive if they've just turned 15. Still impressive if as is more likely they are older 16s.
Wonder how old the 4 2009s are? Pretty impressive if they've just turned 15. Still impressive if as is more likely they are older 16s.
There were the same number of '08's last year in that neighborhood, no reason to think there aren't just as many '09's following along behind.
Which serves as a reminder that there are plenty of 90 mph fish in the sea. Only about 300 guys are pitching in MLB at any given time, that's maybe 30 guys per class year. Moral: To break out of the pack, you need more than velocity.
Which serves as a reminder that there are plenty of 90 mph fish in the sea. Only about 300 guys are pitching in MLB at any given time, that's maybe 30 guys per class year. Moral: To break out of the pack, you need more than velocity.
jerseydad- the two guys that I know that did it down there: one is I think just turned 16 and one is older than me and I'm an '08.