What would be the average increase from your Freshman year to your Sophomore Year.. I have had steady increase since I was 9.. I am afraid your gains will be less and less as you get older.
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I don't think there's any such thing as a typical gain. Everyone grows, or doesn't grow, at their own rate. Some stay healthy, some get hurt. Some improve their mechanics, some develop bad habits. Some do proper conditioning and work at it hard, others do zip or not enough.
Theoretically you probably have some genetic limit and whatever it is, when you reach your maximum you'll quit gaining. If you could gain MPH forever, MLB guys would be throwing 150 by now! But when you'll reach that maximum depends on when you stop growing, at what point you perfect your mechanics, at what point you peak physically, etc. Some kids stop growing at age 15. David Robinson, the former NBA player, grew 7" after high school. You just never know!
All you can do is work hard and see what comes in your individual case. At some point you'll likely top out, but that could be this year, or 7 years from now, who knows?
My own son gained 4 mph over the comparable period, but "your mileage (per hour) may vary", to coin a phrase.
Theoretically you probably have some genetic limit and whatever it is, when you reach your maximum you'll quit gaining. If you could gain MPH forever, MLB guys would be throwing 150 by now! But when you'll reach that maximum depends on when you stop growing, at what point you perfect your mechanics, at what point you peak physically, etc. Some kids stop growing at age 15. David Robinson, the former NBA player, grew 7" after high school. You just never know!
All you can do is work hard and see what comes in your individual case. At some point you'll likely top out, but that could be this year, or 7 years from now, who knows?
My own son gained 4 mph over the comparable period, but "your mileage (per hour) may vary", to coin a phrase.
It depends a lot on the player's age and physical maturity and where they are starting from as far as velocity.
The data I put together showed that the typical increase for a kid going from 14yo to 15yo or 15yo to 16yo who grows 2 inches over that time period is about 5mph. If they don't grow then it will usually be a bit under 4 mph.
But results may vary...
See the PG comments about Rusty Shellhorn who picked up about 7 or 8 mph between being a rising junior and being a rising senior, going from 79 to 86 or 87 mph. I think a lot of that gain came from good old fashioned hard work.
Like Midlo dad says once you stop growing and gaining physical maturity then the "easy" gains are pretty much done for and it takes work to get those few extra mph if they are there. However, don't take finishing with height gains as being the end, as often times the shoulders continue to broaden and the arms get a tiny bit longer even after the growth plates in the legs and elbows have closed.
The data I put together showed that the typical increase for a kid going from 14yo to 15yo or 15yo to 16yo who grows 2 inches over that time period is about 5mph. If they don't grow then it will usually be a bit under 4 mph.
But results may vary...
See the PG comments about Rusty Shellhorn who picked up about 7 or 8 mph between being a rising junior and being a rising senior, going from 79 to 86 or 87 mph. I think a lot of that gain came from good old fashioned hard work.Like Midlo dad says once you stop growing and gaining physical maturity then the "easy" gains are pretty much done for and it takes work to get those few extra mph if they are there. However, don't take finishing with height gains as being the end, as often times the shoulders continue to broaden and the arms get a tiny bit longer even after the growth plates in the legs and elbows have closed.
I am 5' 11 and 175. I still feel like I got a inch or 2 left in me. March 6th I will be 16, I just want to top out at 87 as a sophomore. Here is my top speed since I was 9.
9-53
10-58
11-63
12-68
13-72
14-78
15-84
All were recorded using a jugs gun
9-53
10-58
11-63
12-68
13-72
14-78
15-84
All were recorded using a jugs gun
Even assuming those are peak numbers and not your "cruising" speeds, those are strong numbers.
Since you made a substantial gain last year, I would think more would still be coming your way this year.
Why don't you check back in June and tell us how it turned out?
Since you made a substantial gain last year, I would think more would still be coming your way this year.
Why don't you check back in June and tell us how it turned out?
Man I have seen so many different scenarios in the years I have been coaching. Ive seen guys come in to hs throwing 78 and leave throwing 94. Ive seen guys come in throwing 82 and leave throwing 84. From my experience with the guys that work hard the biggest jump has come between the soph year and the jr year. But a steady increase has been the norm for the guys that work at it consistently during their career. And yes alot has to do with guys that come in closer to being physically mature and the ones that are not and then grow much more while they are in hs. Here are some numbers for some guys in our program the last few years.
Matt Harrison Freshman Year (14) 6'3 175 lhp 78
Soph Year 6'3 190 85
Jr Year 6'4 200 89
Sr Year 6'4 210 94
Drafted last pick 3rd round Atlanta now with the Rangers just made the 40 man roster.
Chris Luck Freshman Year (15) 6'3 165 rhp 87
Soph Year 6'3 170 88
Jr Year 6'3 175 88
Sr Year 6'3 175 92
Drafted 20 round Tampa Rays last year. Chris had tendinitis in his elbow his soph year into the jr year so he didnt pitch much. He made a huge jump after he got heathty and really started to work. As a 15 year old Freshman he was 86-87 bumping 90. He was actually bigtime on the radar at this young age. Fell off the radar. Then had a big senior year. He was voted by BA as one of the top 5 hs pitchers taken in the draft last year based on his tremendous performance in his first pro year. Not bad for a 20th rounder. He did get 7th round money though.
Pratt Maynard Freshman Year (15) 5'11 188 83
Soph Year 5'11 195 86
Jr Year 6'0 205 88
Sr Year 6'0 210 89-90
Pratt is a senior this season. He is headed to NC State as a 3b and was told he will get some two way time down the road. He is a great lh stick. Pitching wise he is more of a power type guy in hs , not near as loose as the previous two on the hill. Not near as long or clean. More of a Clemens type of frame.
Kurt Watkins Freshman Year (14) 5'9 140 76
Soph Year 5'9 150 79
Jr Year 6'1 165 84
Sr Year 6'2 175 87
Nasty low 3/4 arm slot. We almost cut him his freshman year. Small weak and couldnt throw a strike. He worked hard and grew alot. He starred at the JUCO level. Had a nice baseball career.
Josh Darroach Freshman Year (15) 5'11 175 80
Soph Year 5'11 185 82
Jr Year 5'11 190 84
Josh is a Jr this year. He came in very physically mature with facial hair and thick build. He has a chance to be pretty good if he continues to work. We will see.
This is a small sampling of some of our guys. Not sure what this tells you maybe something. The guys that work hard get better. The ones that dont , dont really get better. Alot of variables out there. Good luck
Matt Harrison Freshman Year (14) 6'3 175 lhp 78
Soph Year 6'3 190 85
Jr Year 6'4 200 89
Sr Year 6'4 210 94
Drafted last pick 3rd round Atlanta now with the Rangers just made the 40 man roster.
Chris Luck Freshman Year (15) 6'3 165 rhp 87
Soph Year 6'3 170 88
Jr Year 6'3 175 88
Sr Year 6'3 175 92
Drafted 20 round Tampa Rays last year. Chris had tendinitis in his elbow his soph year into the jr year so he didnt pitch much. He made a huge jump after he got heathty and really started to work. As a 15 year old Freshman he was 86-87 bumping 90. He was actually bigtime on the radar at this young age. Fell off the radar. Then had a big senior year. He was voted by BA as one of the top 5 hs pitchers taken in the draft last year based on his tremendous performance in his first pro year. Not bad for a 20th rounder. He did get 7th round money though.
Pratt Maynard Freshman Year (15) 5'11 188 83
Soph Year 5'11 195 86
Jr Year 6'0 205 88
Sr Year 6'0 210 89-90
Pratt is a senior this season. He is headed to NC State as a 3b and was told he will get some two way time down the road. He is a great lh stick. Pitching wise he is more of a power type guy in hs , not near as loose as the previous two on the hill. Not near as long or clean. More of a Clemens type of frame.
Kurt Watkins Freshman Year (14) 5'9 140 76
Soph Year 5'9 150 79
Jr Year 6'1 165 84
Sr Year 6'2 175 87
Nasty low 3/4 arm slot. We almost cut him his freshman year. Small weak and couldnt throw a strike. He worked hard and grew alot. He starred at the JUCO level. Had a nice baseball career.
Josh Darroach Freshman Year (15) 5'11 175 80
Soph Year 5'11 185 82
Jr Year 5'11 190 84
Josh is a Jr this year. He came in very physically mature with facial hair and thick build. He has a chance to be pretty good if he continues to work. We will see.
This is a small sampling of some of our guys. Not sure what this tells you maybe something. The guys that work hard get better. The ones that dont , dont really get better. Alot of variables out there. Good luck
My son is your age and if he asked me that question my advice to him would be to put away the gun and work on developing yourself as a complete pitcher.
The fact is once you do all the things you can to develop arm strength, the rest is uncontrollable genetics. So my suggestion is to forget about your current and future mph that that will take care of itself and work hard and have fun.
The fact is once you do all the things you can to develop arm strength, the rest is uncontrollable genetics. So my suggestion is to forget about your current and future mph that that will take care of itself and work hard and have fun.
I think it is impossible to not focus on velocity. What is the result of proper and better mechanics? More velocity. What is the result of a good work out program to strengthen the core and the entire body? More velocity. What is the result of a good long toss program that you are consistent in? More velocity? A pitcher works hard to develop his velocity regardless of where he starts out at. It is a good measuring stick for him. You need to have that feedback that velocity readings will give you. I say focus very much on your velocity. Work your butt off to continue to increase your ability to pitch at the highest velocity you can effectively pitch at. This means work hard on your pitching mechanics and get the proper instruction needed to refine them. Understand your delivery and how to repeat it over and over again. Be able to instantly know when you have done something wrong and then how to correct it. Work on your body. Get as strong in the core and the lower body as you can possibly get. Get on a good training program and if you need assistance get it. And work to throw hard. Work to throw the baseball where you need to be able to throw it. You can not take velocity out of the equation. Its part of it.
Look there will come a day when I dont care how good your mechanics are. If your a senior and you have perfect mechanics but your pitching at 80 enjoy your senior year because its your last. Sorry but thats the cold hard facts. You must learn what it takes to put it all together and create the arm speed needed to throw hard. Good luck.
Look there will come a day when I dont care how good your mechanics are. If your a senior and you have perfect mechanics but your pitching at 80 enjoy your senior year because its your last. Sorry but thats the cold hard facts. You must learn what it takes to put it all together and create the arm speed needed to throw hard. Good luck.
Nice post coach.
Couldn't agree more!
Couldn't agree more!
Coach M.,
I didn't think my comments would go unchallenged but I think they're still valid nevertheless. Essentially, I was trying to make two points with what I said:
1. Velocity is important but assuming you're working out and using proper mechanics, velocity is going to be what its going to be. Nature plus nuture = result. No magic potion exists.
2. Assuming the first point is correct and you're doing your best, focus on things you can control and develop into the best pitcher at whatever velocity you're currently at. Example to consider: 2 pitchers (maybe even among the crowd you listed). 1 pitcher throws hard (90+) early and just blows everyone away as he moves up. Pitcher 2, throws much softer and learns how to pitch in the process and in time get his velocity increase to the level of the first pitcher. Who would you think would be the more developed pitcher when they've both maxed out their velocities?
Personally, I view velocity readings as mere entry level numbers. IMO a pitcher has to be a minimum of 83+ to be an effective high school pitcher, 87+ Div. 1 and 90+ to be considered a professional prospect. But hitting these numbers only gets you a look, an opportunity and the beginning of the process not a guaranteed result by itself. So I'm quite aware of the importance of velocity but believe there's a finite number of things you can do to control it and an infinite number of things you can do to improve as a pitcher.
ps. Coach M. Good luck to your son and interestingly if your son hadn't got the winning hit against us in Jupiter, my son was going the start the next game.
I didn't think my comments would go unchallenged but I think they're still valid nevertheless. Essentially, I was trying to make two points with what I said:
1. Velocity is important but assuming you're working out and using proper mechanics, velocity is going to be what its going to be. Nature plus nuture = result. No magic potion exists.
2. Assuming the first point is correct and you're doing your best, focus on things you can control and develop into the best pitcher at whatever velocity you're currently at. Example to consider: 2 pitchers (maybe even among the crowd you listed). 1 pitcher throws hard (90+) early and just blows everyone away as he moves up. Pitcher 2, throws much softer and learns how to pitch in the process and in time get his velocity increase to the level of the first pitcher. Who would you think would be the more developed pitcher when they've both maxed out their velocities?
Personally, I view velocity readings as mere entry level numbers. IMO a pitcher has to be a minimum of 83+ to be an effective high school pitcher, 87+ Div. 1 and 90+ to be considered a professional prospect. But hitting these numbers only gets you a look, an opportunity and the beginning of the process not a guaranteed result by itself. So I'm quite aware of the importance of velocity but believe there's a finite number of things you can do to control it and an infinite number of things you can do to improve as a pitcher.
ps. Coach M. Good luck to your son and interestingly if your son hadn't got the winning hit against us in Jupiter, my son was going the start the next game.
igball,
The question is will pitcher 2 ever max out on his velocity? Pitcher 1 will get his shot and they'll try to teach him how to pitch in the minors. Pitcher 2 may never get that shot. Part of gaining velocity is learning how to throw hard. For some kids it comes naturally, for some kids it takes long toss, or radar feedback, or over/under training.
Why not try to build arm speed at the same time as learning how to pitch? Essentially, one pitches at about 3 or 4 mph below max velocity to get the best command. Why not drive up the max velocity so that you can pitch 3 or 4 mph below that and still have your best possible command. Improving control and velocity are not mutually exclusive.
The question is will pitcher 2 ever max out on his velocity? Pitcher 1 will get his shot and they'll try to teach him how to pitch in the minors. Pitcher 2 may never get that shot. Part of gaining velocity is learning how to throw hard. For some kids it comes naturally, for some kids it takes long toss, or radar feedback, or over/under training.
Why not try to build arm speed at the same time as learning how to pitch? Essentially, one pitches at about 3 or 4 mph below max velocity to get the best command. Why not drive up the max velocity so that you can pitch 3 or 4 mph below that and still have your best possible command. Improving control and velocity are not mutually exclusive.
This is a great thread and most of the comments are spot on. The velocity profiles of actual kids are nice to compare.
Can't really add much other than a couple of comments made by two pitching coaches my son has seen over the years. (he is HS Freshman now)
1. Current coach has told him since to not worry about velocity right now but to focus on his mechanics, and getting good velocity differentiation (and location control) between his pitches. (he also throws harder than most FrM so maybe its easier for him to say this)
2. Another coach has said that pitchers need to have the "intent" to throw hard and must continue to focus on it if they want to improve. He does sessions were he just works with a pitcher "trying to throw hard" so he can see where their mechanics may break down in game situations.
3. Have heard over and over "If you want to improve something measure it".
Great Stuff!
Can't really add much other than a couple of comments made by two pitching coaches my son has seen over the years. (he is HS Freshman now)
1. Current coach has told him since to not worry about velocity right now but to focus on his mechanics, and getting good velocity differentiation (and location control) between his pitches. (he also throws harder than most FrM so maybe its easier for him to say this)
2. Another coach has said that pitchers need to have the "intent" to throw hard and must continue to focus on it if they want to improve. He does sessions were he just works with a pitcher "trying to throw hard" so he can see where their mechanics may break down in game situations.
3. Have heard over and over "If you want to improve something measure it".
Great Stuff!
I've never understood why people think that velocity and command have to be separate.
Ideally it would be great if a kid could actually thow at his max effort (velocity), AND be able to locate it.
He doesn't have to do that all the time, but it's a great tool to have when you can dial it up all the way, and still have confidence in your command/location.
Ideally it would be great if a kid could actually thow at his max effort (velocity), AND be able to locate it.
He doesn't have to do that all the time, but it's a great tool to have when you can dial it up all the way, and still have confidence in your command/location.
it really depends on the effort and work you put into it. When i was younger I didnt care to work at baseball and i would just rather screw around, but as i got into highschool i realized that if i wanted to be someone i would have to work at it. So i worked really hard and it showed i jumped from a measly 71 as a freshman to 78 as a soph. and then 89 as a junior and i hope to get even better as i enter into my senior year.
I know that as a freshman I threw mid 70's, sophomore year I was high 70's maxing at 83, and prior to my SLAP tear I was consistently 84-86 maxing at 88.
Part of the reason why I had such a substantial jump from sophomore to junior year was that I really buckled down, got onto a lifting program, and followed it to a T; also was on the program for 4 months.
If you want it bad enough and are willing to work hard enough you can accomplish whatever you put yourself to
Part of the reason why I had such a substantial jump from sophomore to junior year was that I really buckled down, got onto a lifting program, and followed it to a T; also was on the program for 4 months.
If you want it bad enough and are willing to work hard enough you can accomplish whatever you put yourself to
Around age 16 is the big year for MPH increase.
Velocity is important...if you are looking for schlorship or Pro draft. That is why scouts bring guns to the games. They are professional scouts and still rely on the gun, they cannot accureatly judge or tell the difference in a fastball or change without them. They use them to chart picthers with and record the data produced by the guns.
Propper mechanics are a plus but not necessary as most programs/coaches will try to mold thier picters to pitch "thier way" they think they can fix anyones delivery with thier great coaching skills.
Don't let others tell you velocity is not important, it IS if you want to be seen. Ways to improve velocity are hard work, mechanics, and using tools available to get better results. Throwing baseballs thar are heavier, using bands etc. will help to increase velocity.
Propper mechanics are a plus but not necessary as most programs/coaches will try to mold thier picters to pitch "thier way" they think they can fix anyones delivery with thier great coaching skills.
Don't let others tell you velocity is not important, it IS if you want to be seen. Ways to improve velocity are hard work, mechanics, and using tools available to get better results. Throwing baseballs thar are heavier, using bands etc. will help to increase velocity.
Velocity is important but not so much at college level. I have seen lots of soft tossers in D1 . There is no doubt that hard throwers will get more opportunity than soft tossers but lots of sub 85mph guys in D1 and other colleges.
I know this is crazy but I agree that speed is very important AND not very important. Hang around baseball long enough and you find exceptions to almost any rule.
I'm not sure D-1 is always the acid test, tho. There are some surprisingly bad D-1 teams in the weakest conferences.
Only near-rule I have on speed is that college scholarship pitchers (at any level) ALMOST always can hit 80.
I'm not sure D-1 is always the acid test, tho. There are some surprisingly bad D-1 teams in the weakest conferences.
Only near-rule I have on speed is that college scholarship pitchers (at any level) ALMOST always can hit 80.
Even on the bad teams there are a few good hitters that could make you pay. I agree that D1 is not always a true test but I saw lots of slow tossing guys at some top schools.
quote:Originally posted by BobbleheadDoll:
Even on the bad teams there are a few good hitters that could make you pay. I agree that D1 is not always a true test but I saw lots of slow tossing guys at some top schools.
Well...I'm not quite sure how they got there, but I have a hard time believing that there are soft tossers at top programs.
Maybe lefties, if you're 6'3" or taller, but not righties so much.
In this neck of the woods, all the D1 schools want you throwing at least mid-upper 80's if your a righty, and be projectable.
My son's high school coach uses a stop watch to calculate pitch speed, I haven't asked but I think it is one of those that calculate speed based on throwing distance. How accurate are these? Last summer he was clocked in the mid 80's (going into his JR year) now on his pitcher evaluation sheet they show him throwing 81, it just seems a little wierd (losing speed) since he has been working all winter on a throwing program. (by the way he did have some period of rest between last summer and the starting of his throwing program this fall.) I mention that for anyone who might come up with the thought that he has over worked his arm and is in need of a rest. Does anyone have any experience with this type a stopwatch?
I don't think they would work too good.
A throw loses speed as soon as it leaves your hand, so if you want real velocity numbers....use a radar gun.
You would also have to be extrememly accurate when you start and stop the watch as that will skew your numbers if that's not perfect.
A throw loses speed as soon as it leaves your hand, so if you want real velocity numbers....use a radar gun.
You would also have to be extrememly accurate when you start and stop the watch as that will skew your numbers if that's not perfect.
quote:My son's high school coach uses a stop watch to calculate pitch speed, I haven't asked but I think it is one of those that calculate speed based on throwing distance. How accurate are these?
Ridiculous way to measure speeds over 40 or 50 mph. Certainly can't discern difference between 81 and "mid 80s."
An 85 mph pitch takes about 1/2 second to reach home. 1/10 of a second is very fast human reaction time and that tiny variation would change his "reading" by 20%!
Been discussed many times before on this group.
Best low tech way to measure speed is to see how far a kid can throw a ball (at 30-50 degree takeoff angle. 300' throw equals about 90 mph.
There are online charts showing how fast one must throw to reach a certain distance on the fly. Warm up well. Few pitchers are used to throwing at high angles. Wind and "run up" will play a roll.
One last thing: nearly every kid (and dad) is disappointed when he learns his true speed. Mid-80s is rare and if a pitcher really threw that fast he'd likely have some guns showing up at games.
I have kept charts of both height, weight, and speed since my son was 7YO and I also height and weight charts that my mom kept when I was growing up.
My son had more than the average pitching training from about 9YO and has continued to take lessons to this point. He is 12YO right now and he throws with decent mechanics.
I normalized the height to speed and in his case, SPEED IS NOT INCREASING AT THE SAME RATE AS HEIGHT. In fact, the curves do different things at different times. He has had two distinct plateaus at different times - the last one had a duration of twelve months without any speed increase at all (54 mph for 12 months). All of a sudden in September this year, his speed was 57 and has been steadily increasing since - it was measured at 62 mph on a Juggs a couple of weeks ago in FL (multiple readings from the stretch). The same gun they used last year which corelated to readings at home.
Other info:
Although we are close to the same height at the same age, the curves are very different (he ramps and plateau's) as to how we arrived there and he outweighs me at the same age by 25 pounds. His feet at size 10 1/2 are 3 1/2 sizes bigger than mine were (mine stopped growing at that age). He is 5' 5 1/2" and I am 5' 9" now. I strongly suspect he is blowing right by me. You never know.
Unlike the previous year, he did a lot of work indoors in the fall and threw in a dome which gave him more length to throw.
So... what's the message here? It could be dont listen to those guys that rant about stopping and slowing down in the off-season. In my son's case, he flat-lined for an entire year and then by working through picked up 8 mph in 7 months. In fact, the only other time he had constant gains was when he worked year-round.
I would tend to agree with those that are stating that it's different for different people. In the case of kids like my son, maybe they dont fit the stereotypical mould and if they follow the typical counsel, the become prematurely doomed to the typical "unable to continue" result (when just around the corner was that 8 mph gain).
In any event, it looks like he will have a good start this year.
Cheers
My son had more than the average pitching training from about 9YO and has continued to take lessons to this point. He is 12YO right now and he throws with decent mechanics.
I normalized the height to speed and in his case, SPEED IS NOT INCREASING AT THE SAME RATE AS HEIGHT. In fact, the curves do different things at different times. He has had two distinct plateaus at different times - the last one had a duration of twelve months without any speed increase at all (54 mph for 12 months). All of a sudden in September this year, his speed was 57 and has been steadily increasing since - it was measured at 62 mph on a Juggs a couple of weeks ago in FL (multiple readings from the stretch). The same gun they used last year which corelated to readings at home.
Other info:
Although we are close to the same height at the same age, the curves are very different (he ramps and plateau's) as to how we arrived there and he outweighs me at the same age by 25 pounds. His feet at size 10 1/2 are 3 1/2 sizes bigger than mine were (mine stopped growing at that age). He is 5' 5 1/2" and I am 5' 9" now. I strongly suspect he is blowing right by me. You never know.
Unlike the previous year, he did a lot of work indoors in the fall and threw in a dome which gave him more length to throw.
So... what's the message here? It could be dont listen to those guys that rant about stopping and slowing down in the off-season. In my son's case, he flat-lined for an entire year and then by working through picked up 8 mph in 7 months. In fact, the only other time he had constant gains was when he worked year-round.
I would tend to agree with those that are stating that it's different for different people. In the case of kids like my son, maybe they dont fit the stereotypical mould and if they follow the typical counsel, the become prematurely doomed to the typical "unable to continue" result (when just around the corner was that 8 mph gain).
In any event, it looks like he will have a good start this year.
Cheers
Notlong.. you never know when that big jump may occur. Good luck and I hope it comes.
quote:Originally posted by micdsguy:
One last thing: nearly every kid (and dad) is disappointed when he learns his true speed. Mid-80s is rare and if a pitcher really threw that fast he'd likely have some guns showing up at games.
So true. There is a post somewhere here that said the speed a kid is throwing is "ask the dad and subtract 7" This is amazingly close. My son is a Freshman and I have been taking my freshly calibrated Stalker to games and I am working my way through the various levels. (V,JV,Frosh) I will compile all my data later in the year and post it but in general I have found:
Frosh: Ave Vel around 70. Most are throwing high 60's to low 70's. The top kids are working 72-74. Peak reading at 77. (on a kid I heard about in advance that everyone was telling me he was throwing in the 80's..he was working 73-75)
JV: Ave Vel around 75 (limited data)
Vars: Ave Vel 78-80 (more than JV but still limited)
I saw one top D1 bound kid (most likely top 4 round MLB pick) he was working 87-89, top 91. Some one else told me he has hit 94....I think maybe, but hey 91 is just fine for HS.
My data is limited at JV and V, but what I have found is that it is not easy to throw a ball at 85MPH and many think they do and most (even on V) are really working in high 70's to low 80's.
I can visually tell a difference of about 3 MPH.
More to come later in the season. Bum's adivice earlier in the thread is spot on.
BOF keep us up on your findings.
My often-stated top out Rule Of Thumb for starters on decent baseball programs:
Freshmen 70
JV 75
and Varsity 80
Exactly what you're finding.
But keep gunning and you'll find how little correlation there is between speed and pitching effectively.
My often-stated top out Rule Of Thumb for starters on decent baseball programs:
Freshmen 70
JV 75
and Varsity 80
Exactly what you're finding.
But keep gunning and you'll find how little correlation there is between speed and pitching effectively.
After a couple of years of lessons my son had a few lessons with a Pitcher with Olympic experience. I naively asked what it took to be able to achieve the top speeds? His response was that it took mechanics and in the end genetics. He added this important addendum: “It is rare to see a guy exploit his mechanics to the extent that he had hit his genetic limit.” That kind of stuck with me.
Last year, my son K’d just over half of the batters he faced over 80 innings. I would say the range of pitching we saw during 54 games was between 50 mph and 60 mph. Our team had scored their games on computer for that season and the one before. Another important stat was that he had a 77% first pitch strike count. I am using this stat to substantiate he had decent control. You would have to agree, his 54 mph fastball was not that over-powering compared to the others. Good mechanics/control and a change-up that he worked on in the spring allowed him to get decent performance.
When we were in FL, we participated in a practice with a top level south Florida 12U Majors team. We also went out to watch the game of a mid-level AAA team. I got the sense from coaches that a top level 12U south FL pitcher would throw 68/69 mph. and weaker ones would throw 58/59 mph. I watched one of the kids down there that was said to throw 68/69 and from what I saw, I would believe the claim.
My point here is what would happen if my son did not have his base of mechanics and did not continue to throw through the off-season this year? I would contend that he would have had a poor 2007 season and his confidence would be low for 2008. I would also contend that without the off-season work, he could have been heading into the 2008 season (starts in late May) with speeds closer to 57/58 mph, as opposed to what is likely to be 63/64 mph – enough to allow him to continue with confidence in travel ball here.
I will add here that I am pretty familiar with fathers claiming that their sons are throwing faster than they really are. For starters, I know they don’t train other than team spring training and thus, where are they getting the gun? I think a lot of it comes from a guy standing beside them saying “My kid was gunned at 70 last week.” They look at their own kid standing beside the guy that was gunned and their eyes tell them that their kid looks like he is throwing 70 too. Three weeks later it becomes a fact that their kid can throw 70. This is not that far-fetched. I predicated the fact that my son was throwing from “the stretch” in FL, because the kids were allowed to take a running start into a crow-hop from a hill into a net with little regard to accuracy. Another funny instance that occurred over the last few months. My son tried out for an older team last fall – before his speed changes. The coach liked his hitting and although his pitching was slow, he liked the balance and mechanics. He was given the opportunity to join in at spring training with this team but he was certainly “on the bubble, with little chance.” Although we found another team over the fall, we continued to join the team at spring training. About a month ago he was deemed to be either a #2/#3 overall player. His new 62 mph (probably about 60 at the time of the discussion) had put him in as a #2 pitcher. Despite this, there are a number of pitchers on this team who are “throwing near 70”. I guess this could mean my guy is throwing “near 70.”
I work in the manufacturing sector and have consulted in the past. I regularly find that there are a lot of instances where the fable of the “Kings Clothes” comes to mind in my work. If the king keeps getting compliments on his new clothes, eventually he entirely forgets the fact he is truly naked. If our children believe they are throwing 70 when they are actually 62… maybe they don’t see the need to work on their mechanics as much… maybe in truth they fall behind, and getting continually hit-out-of-the-park with their “70”… maybe the myth falls far behind the reality… maybe this “expectation/failure” cycle causes them to leave the game… and maybe that never had to be… and maybe that’s a shame.
Last year, my son K’d just over half of the batters he faced over 80 innings. I would say the range of pitching we saw during 54 games was between 50 mph and 60 mph. Our team had scored their games on computer for that season and the one before. Another important stat was that he had a 77% first pitch strike count. I am using this stat to substantiate he had decent control. You would have to agree, his 54 mph fastball was not that over-powering compared to the others. Good mechanics/control and a change-up that he worked on in the spring allowed him to get decent performance.
When we were in FL, we participated in a practice with a top level south Florida 12U Majors team. We also went out to watch the game of a mid-level AAA team. I got the sense from coaches that a top level 12U south FL pitcher would throw 68/69 mph. and weaker ones would throw 58/59 mph. I watched one of the kids down there that was said to throw 68/69 and from what I saw, I would believe the claim.
My point here is what would happen if my son did not have his base of mechanics and did not continue to throw through the off-season this year? I would contend that he would have had a poor 2007 season and his confidence would be low for 2008. I would also contend that without the off-season work, he could have been heading into the 2008 season (starts in late May) with speeds closer to 57/58 mph, as opposed to what is likely to be 63/64 mph – enough to allow him to continue with confidence in travel ball here.
I will add here that I am pretty familiar with fathers claiming that their sons are throwing faster than they really are. For starters, I know they don’t train other than team spring training and thus, where are they getting the gun? I think a lot of it comes from a guy standing beside them saying “My kid was gunned at 70 last week.” They look at their own kid standing beside the guy that was gunned and their eyes tell them that their kid looks like he is throwing 70 too. Three weeks later it becomes a fact that their kid can throw 70. This is not that far-fetched. I predicated the fact that my son was throwing from “the stretch” in FL, because the kids were allowed to take a running start into a crow-hop from a hill into a net with little regard to accuracy. Another funny instance that occurred over the last few months. My son tried out for an older team last fall – before his speed changes. The coach liked his hitting and although his pitching was slow, he liked the balance and mechanics. He was given the opportunity to join in at spring training with this team but he was certainly “on the bubble, with little chance.” Although we found another team over the fall, we continued to join the team at spring training. About a month ago he was deemed to be either a #2/#3 overall player. His new 62 mph (probably about 60 at the time of the discussion) had put him in as a #2 pitcher. Despite this, there are a number of pitchers on this team who are “throwing near 70”. I guess this could mean my guy is throwing “near 70.”
I work in the manufacturing sector and have consulted in the past. I regularly find that there are a lot of instances where the fable of the “Kings Clothes” comes to mind in my work. If the king keeps getting compliments on his new clothes, eventually he entirely forgets the fact he is truly naked. If our children believe they are throwing 70 when they are actually 62… maybe they don’t see the need to work on their mechanics as much… maybe in truth they fall behind, and getting continually hit-out-of-the-park with their “70”… maybe the myth falls far behind the reality… maybe this “expectation/failure” cycle causes them to leave the game… and maybe that never had to be… and maybe that’s a shame.
Ok. So my LHP 8th grader (age 14) got to work an inning in a varsity game at a spring break tournament this week. Scout was there with a Stalker. After his inning of work I asked the guy if he would mind telling me what my son threw. He said his fastball worked at 73-75, changeup 68, and curveball 56. Two questions: 1)From what I'm reading here, those would be pretty good numbers for a 14 yr. old lefty, correct? 2)Given the ask dad and subtract 7 rule, if anyone asks should I say he was 80-82 to prevent his actual number from being devalued?
Mcdsguy:
You are right on from what I have seen so far. There are exceptions, but they are just that.
NLTICCH:
First pitch strikes. YES! Keys to the kingdom.
When facing a stud fastball hitting team with a good fielding team behind a junk baller that can throw strikes - we will beat them nearly every time.
For Lefty:
A 14YO lefty working at 73-75 is doing just fine thank you. He will definitely start on the Frosh team and depending on depth above him may play some JV. Frankly does not matter just as long as he is getting his innings in.
You are right on from what I have seen so far. There are exceptions, but they are just that.
NLTICCH:
First pitch strikes. YES! Keys to the kingdom.
When facing a stud fastball hitting team with a good fielding team behind a junk baller that can throw strikes - we will beat them nearly every time.
For Lefty:
A 14YO lefty working at 73-75 is doing just fine thank you. He will definitely start on the Frosh team and depending on depth above him may play some JV. Frankly does not matter just as long as he is getting his innings in.
Many times I’ve heard that you can tell what velocity a pitcher throws by how far he can throw the ball.
With all due respect, I just don’t understand that theory.
A pitcher throws downhill, while someone throwing for distance throws uphill. You need altitude to reach maximum distance. The release points and body actions are not the same which changes the throwing mechanics.
Now if we talked about how far a pitcher could throw the ball on a line from a mound, it might make more sense.
BTW, This is definitely not meant to discount the benefits of long toss.
Here is something else that is somewhat odd. Normally the OF with the best velocity is the player who looks like he has the best arm (by eyesight) But every so often, the guy who looks like he has the best arm (what appears to be the most arm strength) does not have the best velocity. We sometimes refer to this as a power arm vs a fast arm. It may not make sense to the scientific people, but we have seen it.
Is there any explanation for that.
With all due respect, I just don’t understand that theory.
A pitcher throws downhill, while someone throwing for distance throws uphill. You need altitude to reach maximum distance. The release points and body actions are not the same which changes the throwing mechanics.
Now if we talked about how far a pitcher could throw the ball on a line from a mound, it might make more sense.
BTW, This is definitely not meant to discount the benefits of long toss.
Here is something else that is somewhat odd. Normally the OF with the best velocity is the player who looks like he has the best arm (by eyesight) But every so often, the guy who looks like he has the best arm (what appears to be the most arm strength) does not have the best velocity. We sometimes refer to this as a power arm vs a fast arm. It may not make sense to the scientific people, but we have seen it.
Is there any explanation for that.
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
But every so often, the guy who looks like he has the best arm (what appears to be the most arm strength) does not have the best velocity. We sometimes refer to this as a power arm vs a fast arm.
Not sure what you mean. By "looks like the best arm" do you mean that he throws with the least arc on the ball for a given distance? Or gets rid of it quicker? Or the ball appears to arrive at its destination sooner?
And by best velocity do you mean as measured by a radar gun?
Can't even try to explain something if we're not sure what it is.
Maybe I did a poor job of explaining. I'll try to be clearer.
Many times I’ve heard that you can tell what velocity a pitcher throws by how far he can throw the ball.
With all due respect, I just don’t understand that theory.
A pitcher throws downhill, while someone throwing for distance throws uphill. You need altitude to reach maximum distance. The release points and body actions are not the same which changes the throwing mechanics.
Now if we talked about how far a pitcher could throw the ball on a line from a mound, it might make more sense.
BTW, This is definitely not meant to discount the benefits of long toss.
Here is something else that is somewhat odd. Normally the OF with the best velocity is the player who looks like he has the best arm (by eyesight) The good old fashioned way of scouting an outfielders arm... watch him throw and give him a grade. Actually it's really not old fashioned, it is the way it's done) The radar reading is simply a number and you can't grade a position players arm with a radar gun.But every so often, the guy who looks like he has the best arm (what appears to be the most arm strength) And the arm that would receive the highest grade. does not have the best velocity. We sometimes refer to this as a power arm vs a fast arm. It may not make sense to the scientific people, but we have seen it.
Is there any explanation for that?
The best arm would be a combination of the the arm strength, the release, the carry, the accuracy to a certain extent, the amount of time it took to get to the target, among other things. But in the case above I'm simply talking about pure arm strength which the radar gun can sometimes be misleading.
The same thing happend to pitchers once in awhile. If you use the top model Stalker that gives readings at both release and at the plate you will see this in pitchers at times... Both throwing 90 mph... One is 8 mph slower at the plate the other is 6 mph slower at the plate. This is due to the rotation/spin of the ball. At release the speed is yet to be affected by spin. By the time it reaches the target one has slowed down more than the other. If you take this over a longer distance the difference can be much greater. We have seen outfielders throw 90+ to the radar gun and watch the ball hop three times without anything on it at the target. We've seen guys throw 88 MPH and it looks like he's knocking off the glove when the ball arrives at the target.... Who has the better arm from the outfield?
I understand the spin part, but is there any other scientific reason for the difference between a fast arm and a power arm? That's if you believe it really happens.
Many times I’ve heard that you can tell what velocity a pitcher throws by how far he can throw the ball.
With all due respect, I just don’t understand that theory.
A pitcher throws downhill, while someone throwing for distance throws uphill. You need altitude to reach maximum distance. The release points and body actions are not the same which changes the throwing mechanics.
Now if we talked about how far a pitcher could throw the ball on a line from a mound, it might make more sense.
BTW, This is definitely not meant to discount the benefits of long toss.
Here is something else that is somewhat odd. Normally the OF with the best velocity is the player who looks like he has the best arm (by eyesight) The good old fashioned way of scouting an outfielders arm... watch him throw and give him a grade. Actually it's really not old fashioned, it is the way it's done) The radar reading is simply a number and you can't grade a position players arm with a radar gun.But every so often, the guy who looks like he has the best arm (what appears to be the most arm strength) And the arm that would receive the highest grade. does not have the best velocity. We sometimes refer to this as a power arm vs a fast arm. It may not make sense to the scientific people, but we have seen it.
Is there any explanation for that?
The best arm would be a combination of the the arm strength, the release, the carry, the accuracy to a certain extent, the amount of time it took to get to the target, among other things. But in the case above I'm simply talking about pure arm strength which the radar gun can sometimes be misleading.
The same thing happend to pitchers once in awhile. If you use the top model Stalker that gives readings at both release and at the plate you will see this in pitchers at times... Both throwing 90 mph... One is 8 mph slower at the plate the other is 6 mph slower at the plate. This is due to the rotation/spin of the ball. At release the speed is yet to be affected by spin. By the time it reaches the target one has slowed down more than the other. If you take this over a longer distance the difference can be much greater. We have seen outfielders throw 90+ to the radar gun and watch the ball hop three times without anything on it at the target. We've seen guys throw 88 MPH and it looks like he's knocking off the glove when the ball arrives at the target.... Who has the better arm from the outfield?
I understand the spin part, but is there any other scientific reason for the difference between a fast arm and a power arm? That's if you believe it really happens.
I believe it could happen to a certain extent.
It could be that a "power arm" would be a guy who is "muscling" the ball more to achieve his velocity (hence the less ball rotations/slower plate readings, where as the guy with a "faster" arm is more "whip like" and he is also putting more spin on the ball which gives the ball more "life" (and greater "at the plate" speed).
Totally unscientific explanation I know, but one that may help explain this phenomena you speak of.
However I feel the difference between the two, when you start to get above the 90mph mark, starts to become less and less.
It could be that a "power arm" would be a guy who is "muscling" the ball more to achieve his velocity (hence the less ball rotations/slower plate readings, where as the guy with a "faster" arm is more "whip like" and he is also putting more spin on the ball which gives the ball more "life" (and greater "at the plate" speed).
Totally unscientific explanation I know, but one that may help explain this phenomena you speak of.
However I feel the difference between the two, when you start to get above the 90mph mark, starts to become less and less.
Lefty's dad.. scouts there for your 14 y.o.? Wow, that's early. I would guess Bum, Jr. threw about 68-70 on a Stalker at 14. Maybe 75 at 15. 80 at 16. 86 at 17. 88-89 now. I don't know where he'll "end-up", but I'm hoping he's 90 by this Fall. A big component is mechanics.
Lefty's dad.. just remember there are multiple paths. A very good example is a kid in our league with a VERY FAMOUS last name. No names here. But he will be going to a Pac-10 school as a position player. When he was a kid age 12 or so I'd say he was tossing 65 and Bum, Jr. 55. When he was a freshman in H.S. he was all-league at about 72.. Bum, Jr. was on the freshman team at about 70. When he was a sophomore he was about 75 and Bum, Jr. maybe 80. Now he's about 77-78 and Bum, Jr. 88-89.
The moral of the story? PLEASE dare to dream and plan and have your kid work his tail of but PLEASE remember that any degree of success at age 12 will not necessarily equate to success at 17 or 18. If your kid is "behind the curve" today he may be "ahead of the curve" tommorow. It's hard to say. Just keep trying.
The moral of the story? PLEASE dare to dream and plan and have your kid work his tail of but PLEASE remember that any degree of success at age 12 will not necessarily equate to success at 17 or 18. If your kid is "behind the curve" today he may be "ahead of the curve" tommorow. It's hard to say. Just keep trying.
BOF,
I gunned a lot of pitchers at a Spring Break tournament this past week. Most of them were 77-79 on my JUGS, with several being quite a bit slower. I compared it to the readings that a college coach was getting on his Stalker and my readings were consistently 1 mph faster. 1 of the pitchers who is signed with a D1 maxed out at 88 and worked around 85-86. Another who will probably go D1 maxed out at 89 and worked 86-87. The most effective pitcher of the 3 who will either go to a mid level D1 or go JC on the way to a top D1 worked 85-86 and maxed out at 87 on my JUGS. 2 of our pitchers, including CASon worked in the 84-85 range on my gun. One of them worked more around 83 but had a couple up around 87, however that's when there was another JUGS right next to mine and the readings were quite different between the two guns. There was also another pitcher who threw 1 inning for a team from the Bay area who worked 87-89 but once again didn't hit 90. I think he's D1 bound.
I gunned a lot of pitchers at a Spring Break tournament this past week. Most of them were 77-79 on my JUGS, with several being quite a bit slower. I compared it to the readings that a college coach was getting on his Stalker and my readings were consistently 1 mph faster. 1 of the pitchers who is signed with a D1 maxed out at 88 and worked around 85-86. Another who will probably go D1 maxed out at 89 and worked 86-87. The most effective pitcher of the 3 who will either go to a mid level D1 or go JC on the way to a top D1 worked 85-86 and maxed out at 87 on my JUGS. 2 of our pitchers, including CASon worked in the 84-85 range on my gun. One of them worked more around 83 but had a couple up around 87, however that's when there was another JUGS right next to mine and the readings were quite different between the two guns. There was also another pitcher who threw 1 inning for a team from the Bay area who worked 87-89 but once again didn't hit 90. I think he's D1 bound.
Lefty'sdad,
Yep, good numbers.
Yep, good numbers.
CaDad:
Based on your data and what I have seen so far just confirms that throwing a baseball in the mid 80's consistently is not an easy thing to do, and to Bum's point it takes a long time and a lot of work -so work hard and be patient. I am new to the HS baseball scene since my boy is a Freshman but so far I have seen more Varsity pitchers in the high 70's/low 80's than I have in the mid 80's. I think the message for pitchers who are coming up is don't need to get all worked up if they are "only" throwing in the 70's.
Based on your data and what I have seen so far just confirms that throwing a baseball in the mid 80's consistently is not an easy thing to do, and to Bum's point it takes a long time and a lot of work -so work hard and be patient. I am new to the HS baseball scene since my boy is a Freshman but so far I have seen more Varsity pitchers in the high 70's/low 80's than I have in the mid 80's. I think the message for pitchers who are coming up is don't need to get all worked up if they are "only" throwing in the 70's.
