What are the odds?

Here is how Coach Stotz puts it in one of his famous emails to recruits. This also touches on a theme that has cropped up here lately about not giving up dreams, but at the same time understanding the facts, odds, reality.

I hear from high school baseball players all the time that their dream is to play D1 college baseball, get drafted out of college; make it to the Major Leagues and then retire on the millions they made playing professional baseball.

I don't want to deter your dream but I do want you to be realistic.  So, I want you to think about this.  Will you be playing baseball 5 years from now when you are 21?  I certainly hope so.  10 years from now, when you are 26?  Again, I hope so, but the numbers say you should not be optimistic.  15 years from now when you are 31?  If you are you are probably a millionaire and this email will not pertain to you.

Lets look at the numbers.

Number of high schools that play baseball in the United States: 15,720 (from Wayne Mazzoni's recruiting book)

Number of seniors on a high school team: 8 (my estimate)

Total number of senior year high school baseball players: 125,760 players

Number of D1 college baseball teams: 281

Number of freshman playing D1 baseball:  approximately 2500.  D1 baseball has a 35 man roster limit---I made the assumption that 25% of each college teams roster were freshman players

Chance of a high school baseball player playing D1 baseball: 1.98%, 2 out of every 100 high school players play D1 baseball

Now, what are the chances you get drafted out of college baseball (D1).  I won't bore you with the math but 14% of all D1 college players get drafted and 13% sign pro baseball contracts.

[It goes on but I cut it off here]

Additionally, from the NCAA Athletic Research Probability Doc:

http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/co...ability+of+Going+Pro

1) About 6.7 percent of high school senior boys interscholastic baseball players will go on to play men's baseball at a NCAA member institution.

2) 9.7 percent of NCAA senior male baseball players will get drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) team.

 

3) Approximately one in 200, or 0.51 percent of high school senior boys playing inter scholasticbaseball will eventually be drafted by an MLB team.

"So you're telling me there is a chance" - Lloyd Christmas http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

One other level in the pyramid is there about 7,000 players at the minor league level hoping to become one of the 750.  Logic really doesn't apply here.  If a player were to consider things logically, they would find something else to make their living at in view of the odds.  The thing that drives many of them is a little boy's love of playing the game and it is no more complicated than that.  Of course, all of them would like to make the money at the big league level but what keeps them in the game is their simple love of the game.  There are exceptions, but I suspect most have a deep love of the game.

Not only is it a numbers game but the performance expectations are almost out-of-reach even for the most intense competitors.  You have to be a star player in high school to even get a chance at college and/or pros.  Many who make it to the next level past high school never make it to the playing field due to the crushing level of competition that most players cannot even imagine.  To move through the minors, you have to be one of the better players at each level of progression.  To become one of 750, you often times need a break.  If you doubt yourself at any of those stages, you may not have the fortitude it takes to see that break materialize.

Considering a sport where a a hitter not getting a hit 7 out of 10 times at bat is considered OK, baseball players are uniquely suited for beating seemingly insurmountable odds.

or all American players can roll over and let International players take all the spots.

Which one do you want? I hope to use those numbers to inspire  

Fantastic post!

I find it impossible to be able to articulate just how difficult it is to grind your way to the top...whether that be college or pro baseball.  While I am nearly a lifelong baseball fanatic, I simply had no idea, whatsoever, about how difficult it is to get to "there" until I watched my sons go through this.

I suspect there are some who read this and, like me 10 years ago, are thinking something like, "Yeah, yeah...yeah...I/my son can do it...more easily."  I say...Good for you!...because if you stop to consider the mountain ahead of you it is truly overwhelming...its gonna take that blind faith to get through a lot of whats ahead of you. 

I want kids to reach their potential in and out of the classroom and go on to lead productive lives.

OK, let me put my flak helmet on here. I have seen so many kids (both genders) in so many sports mess up their college academic and social careers because of "the dream". The US is the only country that has organized college sports and offers scholarships to study based on athletics.  Overseas, college aged kids would participate in club sports organized outside academic institutions. (There are some minor exceptions such as Oxford and Cambridge rowing). It's a shame that to pursue "the dream", some youngsters in the US have to compromise their academic choices.

So, yeah, an aspiring athlete should not necessarily give up the dream in the face of insurmountable odds. But I think he/she should get all the facts/odds to understand the reality of the situation, as Stotzy says, and have enough self-awareness to make a judgment on whether sports or academics should be the top priority. The kids who can meet both their academic and athletic objectives in college are truly blessed.

Nice post CD.  My wife says I am crazy, but I think that a great baseball player has to be an artist ("performance artist").  With a bit of athletic ability and a lot of work, a kid can develop the technical skills to be a good ball player.  But to take it to a high level and move past technical ability, the player has to apply art, that uncommon skill to be in harmony with whatever happens on the field.  A hitter has to harmonize with what the pitcher delivers, a fielder has to harmonize with what comes his way etc.  A pitcher has to understand how to interrupt the hitter's ability to harmonize with his pitches.   

So my point is a rhetorical question.  How many recognized great artists are there in the world? 

And, to borrow a statement from Coolidge, "...nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent."  There may be some great artists (athletes) who do not have the stamina to play ball at a high level.  Those athletes who have the innate physical ability and psychological toughness to make it are rare, as you all are saying. 

Ignorance of the odds of making it is a blessing.

You might be surprised how fast they catch onto the odds, maybe we don't but they do.

But every Dad/Mom thinks their kid is one in a million.

At any given time there are 750 Major League players.  750 people will fill those positions. The odds depend on who the player is.  If you are Bryce Harper or Justin Upton your odds are nearly 100%.  If you are a bad high school player your odds are 0%. Players can't think about the odds.  That would be like expecting a disaster. Somebody has to be one of those 750.  Many players have beat the so called odds and they have been rewarded greatly for doing it.

it's all about risk and reward.  The risk is spending your time playing baseball. If you fail you've lost some time that could have been spent elsewhere. However there can still be some value later on. If you make it and more importantly if you become a main stay, you will make a lot of money, perhaps more than had you done anything else with your life.

i'm guessing that most of those who make it thought  their odds were better than what the statistics show.  After all, if it is that hard to get one of those jobs, what are the chances if you don't believe it can happen.

I'm glad you weighed in, PGStaff ... because this thread has kinda bugged me. I think it's because it assumes that on some level, all players are close to equal. I couldn't disagree more.

My view is that if legitimate people -- be they pro scouts, PG staff or whatever -- identify a HS player as truly having MLB potential, the odds increase substantially ... assuming he works hard , gets proper exposure and continues to develop. So the odds of that boy making it are just not the same as everyone else.

Put another way ... what are the odds that boys who play in Jupiter in October will make it? A hell of a lot greater than those who don't, I suspect.

A few years ago on Mojo Network (don't know if it still exists) they had a six part series on Diamonback AAA top prospects Chris Young, Carlos Quentin, Brian Barden, Casey Daigle, Bill Murphy and Dustin Nippert. 

I remember the D'backs GM at the time saying a career in pro baseball is a poor career choice given the odds. He said 2% of minor leaguers see a day in the majors. 1% hang around long enough to earn a living playing MLB. He added 100% of minor leaguers believe they will be the 1% and it's the only way to survive.

In case anyone is interested what happened to these guys Quentin plays for the Padres. He made the all star team as a White Sox. Young plays for the A's. He made the all star team as a D'back. Barden was up and down with the Marlins a few times before being released. Murphy was called up by the Jays once. He's a career minor leaguer. Daigle was up and down with the D'backs a few times before being released and bouncing around the minors into his 30s. He's Mr Jennie Finch. Nippert was up and down with the Rangers before signing with a Korean team. So, of six guys knocking on the door at AAA only two made it. Only one produced for the D'backs.

The numbers are the numbers, and you can't get around them.  Statistics tell a story but they can also lie.  I hear you jp24.

Heck, if one of my kids had major league talent, had a major league body, and had a major league (I'm going to do this) attitude.....I'd tell him to pursue it if that is what he wanted.   I totally understand an athlete's desire to continue to play a sport they love and hopefully get paid like a rockstar to do it.  I tried to become a professional tennis player after college.   To sum up that experience....there are a lot of really good tennis players around the world......I learned very quickly I wasn't one of them.   Dream big, and work hard would be my advice to anyone blessed with professional athlete skills and determination or anyone passionate in their chosen field.

As the father of 3 boys, I'm their career life advisor when their self-awareness runs low.  So far, their self-awareness has been spot on, and they've made great career path decisions.  Our house is not democracy.  You can pursue any amateur or professional sport on my dime, but it has to come with a college education.  Professional sports can be very temporary as in my personal example above, but education is for life.

jp24,

here is a statistic, though the history is fairly short. The PG All American Game (formerly AFLAC Game) started in 2003.  It normally takes a good 5 years for players to make the Big Leagues once they graduate from high school, less if out of college.  These players that play in the All American game have not started their senior year in high school, so for the most part they are 6 years from the Big Leagues. So realistically the vast majority of those who made the Big Leagues out of that event came from the 2003 game (2004 draft) to the 2006 game (2007 draft).  152 players played in the All American games in those years. Nearly 70 of them have made at least an appearance in the Major Leagues. Some of them are or will be very wealthy. Check the salary and bonus money paid to Justin Upton, Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen, Madison Bumgarner, Jason Heyward, Rick Porcello, etc. obviously these players didn't have that 1% odds.  

MLB has a way of telling you what your odds are.  It's called the draft.  If you don't get selected in the draft, your odds are extremely low. If you are selected late in the draft your odds are low. If you are selected in the first couple rounds your odds are very good. If you are selected in the first round your odds are excellent. MLB clubs count on their high picks to play in the Big Leagues.

Baseball is a great game. That is why so many kids enjoy playing.  But who cares what the odds are of playing in college or playing professional baseball or making the Major Leagues?  If a college recruits you, your odds of playing in college is extremely high. All players can do is go out and play, then other people decide what you do later.

this might bother some that are more realistic than I am. I don't buy into reality!  Not reality based on what others have done. Seems to me reality is what you make it. Odds are based on probability and sometimes based on human opinion (in sports). Then those odds change depending on which way the public is betting.  I look at it this way, a fair chance is if you put a dollar on a 100 to 1 shot, you should win a $100 if you win. In baseball if you have the "necessary" talent and perhaps a little luck, you will make much more than that that 100 to 1 on your investment.  That is if you really want to call it an investment.  Personally I call it playing a game and doing something you love.

my suggestion to any player that has talent is form your own reality. Enjoy the game, respect the game, and forget the odds.  Give it your best shot and shoot for the moon. Believe in yourself and never listen to those who say it won't happen. Doesn't make any difference if it is college, pro or both, start climbing the mountain. Sure, some will get to the top and many won't.  If you need great odds, try something a lot easier and less rewarding.

One last thing about playing college or pro baseball.  There is a gigantic industry out there called baseball. There are a very large number of people that make baseball their career. They are involved because most of these people love the game.  I agree that education is very important, but at the same time let's not forget about how important a good baseball education has been for so many people. You don't have to be a Major League player to have a career in baseball. Also, I can't even tell you all the people I know that played professional baseball and now have a very lucrative career in something else. That is why the traditional education is so important. But all those people would still point to the benefit of their education in baseball as well.

Sorry if any of the above offends anyone. I often am accused of having my head up my arse.

I'm going to pick up on that last point -- about baseball being a great education. I truly believe that. As an executive who sees a LOT of college grads in the corporate world, I cannot tell you how many don't have what it takes to succeed. The sheepskin is worth less and less because the education itself is often sub-par, and there's often too little self-discipline. On the other hand, young people who have real-world experiences ... especially experiences steeped in adversity (like the military or minor league ball) can be some of the most focused, driven people around.

All that to say ... I think for many young men, the minor leagues may be a BETTER choice than college.

What a reality check. Back in the 50's there were only 16 major league teams. imagine the odds there.

I'd say about the same (actually, probably better, given the lack of international players.) The population of the US was half of what it is now.

For a different perspective, though, compare that to being an individual athlete in an Olympic sport. Depending on the sport or discipline, there are 4-10 places on the Olympic team every 4 years, 4-10 Chances, every four years, to participate in the sport at its very highest level (and don't say World Cup, World Championship is the same, while it is equally a high level, it just isn't recognized as such. Sad but true. If you are in one of "those" sports, the defining fact of your career is whether you went to the Olympic Games or not, and how you did once you got there).

In baseball, at the MLB level, there are 750 openings, 81 days a season over that same four year period to reach the highest level. So 60,750 chances to be on a MLB roster per season, or 243,000 chances every four years (more if you add in September call-ups)...compared to the Olympic guy's 4-12 chances over the same time period!

No doubt that the volume of competition for those spots is a lot higher in baseball, I'm just throwing out a different perspective.

The other thing to think about when you look at these long odds is this; What percentage of those Little Leaguers, High Schoolers and others will actually do the work needed to get to the next level. The odds get a little less insurmountable when you eliminate the players who either don't aspire to the next level, or think they aspire to the next level until it's time to show up and do what it takes. 

I also agree greatly with what PGStaff says about baseball as an industry - if you love the game, even if you don't make it as a player (and even if you do, no one can play forever), there are plenty of career opportunities in the industry. They might not always be as lucrative as some other fields, but then again, many might say a ballpark's a hell of a better place to work than a factory, or a courtroom, a hospital or an office...